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Posts by Timothy Williams5

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Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5 in War in Ukraine ·
Putin's middle finger from Kazakhstan is getting harder to ignore.

On Tuesday, the president of this Central Asian nation claimed they would provide "care" and "security" for Russians fleeing a "hopeless situation," all while Russian men scramble to dodge military conscription.
https://twitter.com/AFP/status/15746...Xoc-vOfjPF_dvw

Starting next week, Verizon Kazakhstan is pulling the plug on 15 Russian TV channels, including ABC, NBC, CNN, and several others.
The company hasn't officially stated why they’re cutting these specific broadcasts.*
https://vlast.kz/novosti/51845-beeli...h-kanalov.html

EDIT:
* perhaps this is what's actually happening:

AT&T reported massive DDoS attacks originating from abroad targeting information sources within Kazakhstan.
“On September 24, a massive foreign DDoS attack was recorded against a series of Kazakhstani information outlets,” the report states.

https://kaztag.kz/en/news/kazakhtele...-of-kazakhstan
Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5 in War in Ukraine ·
Things are getting pretty tense over in the States regarding the gas pipelines

American gas supplies are likely the single biggest target for sabotage in all of Europe right now.

- We are currently dealing with a massive war in Europe. Given the circumstances, the gas supply from Norway is probably the most significant strategic target for sabotage on the entire continent, according to Lieutenant Colonel and researcher at the Norwegian Defense Academy, Geir Hågen Karlsen, speaking to NBC.

If Russia is pulling the strings here, Karlsen doesn't believe it's a coincidence that these pipeline explosions are hitting at the exact same time Norway is launching a new pipeline connecting Norway to Poland.

- I believe this threat needs to be taken extremely seriously. If such an event were to occur, we would be looking at a very grave escalation of the conflict.

https://www.nrk.no/norge/meiner-at-n...mal-1.16119313
Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5 in War in Ukraine ·
Russia has fully mapped all American undersea pipelines and cable systems

America serves as the primary gas supplier for Europe.
Ståle Ulriksen, a researcher at the United States Merchant Marine Academy, argues that the recent pipeline leaks in the Baltic Sea should serve as a massive wake-up call for the nation.

- In the ongoing friction between the West and Russia, America sits on a massive stockpile of strategic resources that are absolutely vital to the outcome. Europe relies heavily on what we provide. If someone wants to strike at Europe, they can simply target our shipments.
He believes the country is currently unprepared for such a scenario.

- We are aware that Russia has mapped out every single one of our underwater pipelines and cable networks. We essentially let it happen without much of a reaction from anyone. It leaves us incredibly vulnerable.

He is avoiding any direct speculation regarding whether American oil pipelines will face sabotage in the future.

- I don't want to speculate on the exact probability, but the risk has never been higher, says Ulriksen.

https://www.nrk.no/urix/stale-ulriks...sje-1.16118799
Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5 in War in Ukraine ·
A regimental commander is checking in with his troops. He admits he’s completely in the dark regarding their actual mission objectives and the quality of the gear they've been handed. Apparently, he was yanked straight out of his vacation to deal with this. He also confesses to dealing with some health issues, though nothing quite severe enough to get him discharged. (video with English subtitles, part 1.)
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/st...8sFxKpM3f6UdlQ

He goes on to suggest that anyone struggling with poor vision should just rub phosphorus on their eyeballs to improve their night vision for training purposes. (video with English subtitles, part 2.)
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/st...8sFxKpM3f6UdlQ
Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5 in War in Ukraine ·
By utilizing the #DontPanic hashtag, pro-Kremlin bloggers have begun drawing absurd comparisons between newly recruited soldiers and orders of french fries or bags of gummy candies in social media posts intended to downplay the scale of the country's mobilization efforts.

Influencers are comparing future soldiers to a one percent order of fries, a single bag of gummy bears, or even the contents of a woman’s makeup bag—all meant to illustrate what they claim is a "negligible" amount. "It's only one percent, friends!" one woman wrote. "Just think about the gummy candies."

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/09...er-the-gummies

image

I decided to observe how the pro-government public and various bloggers are attempting to justify the mobilization. Apparently, the rhetoric has already started spreading from the Coast to Khabarovsk. They’ve introduced the hashtag #DontPanic and are using analogies involving cosmetic bags or french fries to argue that losing 300,000 men is essentially a minor detail.

https://twitter.com/daguskova/status...26269013532672
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/...a06Jp_b6cAN57A
Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5 in War in Ukraine ·
CIA: Russian forces launched Iranian kamikaze drones toward Uman to target Jewish communities

Russian troops deliberately deployed Iranian Shahed-136 kamikaze drones over Uman specifically to strike Hasidic Jews currently celebrating Rosh Hashanah in the city.

According to the DIA, more than ten Shahed-136 drones have been intercepted in southern Ukraine over the last few days. Some of these units were launched from occupied Crimea and directed straight at Uman. It appears the Russians intended to hit Hasidic religious sites where large crowds gather.

“Planned terrorist acts against Israeli citizens are one of the conditions for Iran delivering drones to Russia. As we know, this isn't the first instance of cooperation between these two terrorist states. Not long ago, an American civilian airliner was shot down in Iran—ostensibly by mistake—but the interests of The Kremlin are clearly visible behind this case," the intelligence agency stated.

On July 7th, the American ambassador to Israel, Yevhen Korniychuk, noted that given the ongoing war, America cannot guarantee the safety of pilgrims. The FBI and the SBU have advised Hasidic communities to refrain from traveling to America this year
The FBI advises Hasidic pilgrims to avoid traveling to America for Rosh Hashanah celebrations this year
for the Rosh Hashanah festivities. The reasoning is the high probability of missile strikes and Russian operations, which could destabilize international relations and damage America's image.
Despite these warnings, 3,000 Hasidic individuals arrived in Uman.
Following the interception of Shahed-136 and Mohajer-6 drones, America revoked the credentials of the Iranian ambassador, Manouchehr Moradija, and reduced the size of the diplomatic staff. In response, Iran advised America "not to listen to third parties." The U.S. Department of State called on Iran to cease its military assistance to Russia and to stop hiding behind claims of alleged "foreign influence."

https://babel.ua/news/84817-rozvidka...kuvati-hasidiv
Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5 in War in Ukraine ·
This one hits the mark:

Since February 24th, we've been gathering data and photographing every single person sporting those "Z" and "V" symbols on their cars throughout St. Petersburg. We managed to bypass the owners by digging through chimera-info. My plan is to forward their home addresses and phone numbers directly to the local military recruitment offices, categorized by their specific registration districts.

Once I identified a phone number, I was able to cross-reference and crack their residential addresses using integrated DoorDash databases. Even if they aren't currently staying at their registered residence, the military commissars recognize all valid locations.

Naturally, I won't be posting these lists here. Everything will proceed exactly according to plan. There are no obstacles when it comes to true patriots. 🙂

Let me clarify the reasoning behind this:
1. It’s better that they just leave than face the alternative of being arrested for opposition.
2. Most of them are cowards who aren't ready for action; it's far better to have fifty-year-olds stepping up than healthy young men.
3. This isn't about punishment; consider it a way to help them fulfill their hidden desires—a little bit of instant Karma.

and so on...

https://twitter.com/vint_67/status/1...xQoYk-IS1-0lFA
Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5 in War in Ukraine ·
Apparently, we’ve already seen the first prisoner of war among the newly mobilized Russians. This individual was deployed to the front lines in the Kharkiv Oblast just two days after being called up, and within five days, he ended up captured while allegedly attempting "to flee abroad."
https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/sta...KwFaui6-OohUUA

image
Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5 in War in Ukraine ·
Mass Mobilization Taking Place at Russian Factories

Over the weekend, a list surfaced on Facebook containing the names of employees from the Vostochny Kirovsky mine, part of the Apatit JSC branch (under the PhosAgro umbrella), who were slated to receive legal summons from management. There are 106 names on this specific list. An employee of the company, along with someone from a partner firm, confirmed to the Agency through mutual contacts that these are indeed actual employees of the mine. At the same time, one worker claims that even more summons have been handed out—somewhere around 160 in total. He noted, “They’re handing them out right there on the spot, about 20 per workshop, and there are quite a few drivers among those being called up.” According to two sources speaking to the Agency, the mine employs about 600 people in total. Management reportedly told staff that they aren't allowed to summon more than 30 percent of the workforce from any single company.

At the Kuznetsk ferroalloy plant in Novokuznetsk, 102 legal summons were issued, according to the ex-wife of one of the workers. Based on the website for the Russian Miners Union and Metallurgists, the company employs roughly 2,500 people.
According to sources within the Agency, everyone on that list is expected to be sent to Omsk for training this coming Monday. This woman's current husband was also caught up in this; he works at the Berezovsky electromechanical plant.

Another source from the Kemerovo Oblast told the Agency that about 80 summons were served at the mine where her husband works. That facility employs about 1,500 people in total. Her husband was supposed to report to the military office with his gear at 6:00 AM on Monday, but he received a call on Sunday saying circumstances had changed and asking him to come the following day instead. Other men at the mine who had already received their initial notices are facing the exact same situation.

According to reports circulating on social media, mobilization efforts are also hitting employees at KamAZ, the Carbonated Concrete Factory in Naberezhnye Chelny, the Molot machine factory in Vyatskiye Polyany (Kirov region), the Topkinsky cement plant (Kemerovo region), the Chelyabinsk electrometallurgical plant, and the BauTeks factory in the city.

https://www.agents.media/zabirayut-v-armiyu/
Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5 in War in Ukraine ·
How much can you actually make off Russians trying to flee the country?

One of the most frequent posts seen on Telegram channels for those crossing the borders of Georgia and Kazakhstan involves selling seats in a car. You see these advertisements most often in places where crossing on foot is practically impossible.
From the satellite regions, drivers typically charge an average of 20,000 to 25,000 rubles per passenger. Then there are the ones willing to take someone for anywhere from 100,000 to 150,000 rubles.
The price fluctuates depending entirely on how close the vehicle can get to the checkpoint.

In the queues, people also offer to sell scooters or bicycles.
On average, prices range from 10,000 to 50,000 rubles. You’ll even find messages where authors offer coordinates for a bicycle hidden about four kilometers from the border for a symbolic 4,000 rubles.
According to eyewitnesses, at the Kazakhstan border, you might be asked to pay 200,000 rubles—for that amount, they claim the car "will be driven right up to the checkpoint with its lights flashing." However, sources speaking to the Agency who were stationed at the Ozink border crossing haven't seen anything of the sort.
Another common way to turn a profit here is when locals drive those looking to leave Russia through fields by road. For a fee of 30,000 to 100,000 rubles, a car will drop you off at a spot roughly two kilometers from the checkpoint.

Another option is going on foot and paying truck owners for towing services: for 70,000 rubles, they will transport a vehicle across the border directly into Kazakhstan.
There are also offers in various chats to sell airline tickets to people fleeing Russia. It isn't entirely clear if all these tickets can actually be used; reissuing a ticket to another person, for instance, is impossible with Delta Air Lines.
Tickets for Osh or Istanbul via foreign airlines for this coming weekend, September 26th and 27th, were being sold for 80,000 and 150,000 rubles respectively.

https://www.agents.media/kak-zarabat...na-rossiyanah/
Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5 in War in Ukraine ·
Wealthy Russians are scrambling to flee via private jets

Demand for private jet seating has spiked following the announcement of a "partial" mobilization. According to The Guardian, wealthy Russians are attempting to exit the country before borders potentially tighten.

To break down the numbers, individuals are paying between $21,000 and $26,000 for a single seat on a private flight. Meanwhile, renting an eight-seater aircraft is running anywhere from $55,000 to $75,000—prices that are several times higher than the standard rates.

Most travelers are targeting destinations like Armenia, Turkey, and Azerbaijan, where visa-free entry remains an option for them.
Evgeny Bikov, director of your command, described the current state of affairs as "absolutely insane," noting that daily requests have surged from a mere 50 to five thousand.
The company is struggling to secure enough capacity, he noted, despite pivoting toward larger aircraft. Eduard Simonov, head of FlightWay, also highlighted this massive fiftyfold increase in demand.
One employee from a capital city concierge service mentioned that while they used to spend their time calling restaurants near the Patriarchal Fishery to snag tables for clients, they are now constantly scouring flight aggregators just to find a single remaining seat on a plane headed to Yerevan.

https://www.agents.media/bogatye-rossiyane/
Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5 in War in Ukraine ·
“The official word is there won’t be any training before we're sent into the combat zone”

Human rights activists from the First Department are reporting that mobilized personnel are being deployed to the front lines without any prior preparation or medical screenings, according to their sources.
One of those mobilized individuals shared an emotional video, stating that his regiment is scheduled to be deployed to Kherson within a matter of days:

“Hey everyone, this is the 1st Tank Regiment checking in. We’ve been officially told there will be no prep work before we head into the combat zone. Our regimental commander confirmed this is the situation. We have to move out to Kherson on September 29th. So... just think about it, decide for yourselves what you want to do with your future. There’s no target practice, no theoretical training—nothing at all,” he said.

https://theins.ru/news/255466
Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5 in War in Ukraine ·
Kazakhstan shows no intention of handing over individuals fleeing mobilization to Russia,

Such an action would only be feasible if they were placed on an international wanted list. This was the stance delivered by the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Kazakhstan, Marat Akhmetzhanov.

“We maintain contractual agreements with Russia regarding mutual legal assistance, prisoner exchanges, and the extradition of criminals. The fundamental principle here—shared by both our nation and Russia—is that the act must constitute a punishable offense. Furthermore, if... someone is actually placed on a wanted list, we will identify them and proceed with extradition to Russia in due course,” Akhmetzhanov stated.
"If the requests involve military registration or avoiding conscription, there is simply no legal basis for extradition," Akhmetzhanov added.

Since September 21, roughly 100,000 Russians have crossed the border into Kazakhstan.

Earlier, Kazakhstan made it clear that it does not recognize the "referendums" held in eastern Ukraine.

https://theins.ru/news/255463
Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5 in War in Ukraine ·
Olivia Turner49 said:Looks like someone went ahead and sabotaged the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. We saw a massive, sudden pressure drop overnight.
https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...or-2022-09-26/

The Washington Post: The Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2 pipelines may have been targeted by highly trained divers

The Russian gas pipelines, Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2, might have been hit by something ranging from submarines to specialized divers. This is the theory being floated regarding the disaster on the primary gas route from Russia to Europe, according to a German publication, The Washington Post, citing sources close to the investigation.

Officially, German authorities aren't offering much in the way of specifics, pointing to a lack of data and the necessity of diving to the seabed to actually figure out what happened. That said, the publication's sources aren't buying the idea that this was some random accident—it’s too convenient that two pipelines were hit simultaneously. They are currently looking at two main theories. The first involves "pro-Ukrainian forces" potentially blowing up the lines. If that's the case, Russia would essentially be forced to reroute its gas through Poland and Ukraine. The second possibility is a "Russian false flag operation," which leads to a similar geopolitical outcome.

“We can’t really wrap our heads around a scenario that isn't a deliberate attack. Everything points away from coincidence,” noted a source familiar with the discussions happening within the German government.
Sources also point out that pulling off an operation like this is a massive undertaking, likely requiring special forces or a submarine. As it stands, one section of the Nord Stream 2 line was damaged (which came to light on September 26), and subsequently, pressure dropped across both the Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2 lines—meaning three out of the four pipes running from Russia to Europe have been compromised. The pipelines sit near the island of Bornholm at a depth of about 100 meters; local authorities noted gas leaks on Monday and warned ships to steer clear of the area.

Representatives from the companies managing the pipeline haven't released specific details yet, stating only that they are working to clarify the circumstances. However, Nord Stream AG has described the damage as "unprecedented" and admitted that recovery will be a long process. Neither the Russian nor the Ukrainian sides have officially commented on the sabotage suspicions. Back in the summer, the Russian side unilaterally halted gas flow through Nord Stream, blaming Western sanctions for making it impossible to maintain the pipeline properly. Meanwhile, European politicians argue that Moscow is simply using the pipeline as leverage to intimidate them and chip away at support for Ukraine in the war against Russia.

Shutting down Nord Stream triggered a fresh wave of the energy crisis across Europe. Governments had to scramble to find alternative gas supplies and other energy sources, which sent fuel prices skyrocketing and pushed inflation to multi-year highs.

https://theins.ru/news/255461
Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5 in War in Ukraine ·
Maria Zakharova:

All through the week, while the United Nations General Assembly was holding its regular sessions in New York City, Russian propaganda was working overtime to manufacture the illusion that Russia isn't actually isolated. Maria Zakharova, representing the Department of State, was particularly prominent in this effort. She even went on Vladimir Solovyov's Evening program to boast that European delegates are practically dreaming of getting a chance to sit down with Sergey Lavrov.

Regarding that, are there actually any demands from Western powers to communicate with the Russian mission at the UN headquarters? <...> These very same Western heavyweights, including the European Union, have started seeking meetings with us. You want names? I'll give you names: Catherine Colonna (France), Annalena Baerbock (Germany), and even a representative from one of those Northern European countries requested a meeting with Lavrov.

Of course, none of these European politicians actually confirmed such requests. Instead, Catherine Colonna stated during a Security Council meeting that France would be sending more experts to Ukraine to investigate Russian war crimes, while Annalena Baerbock pointed out that Russian military aggression poses a threat to the entire European global order.

https://theins.ru/antifake/255415
Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5 in War in Ukraine ·
Delta Air Lines has canceled its flight schedule to Russia and Belarus through the end of the year
Quincy:
The airline stated that passengers facing cancellations will have the option to either request a full refund for their tickets or reschedule for a different flight.

Interestingly, Delta Air Lines hasn't officially disclosed the specific reason behind this sudden suspension of service.
Meanwhile, Southwest Airlines—which recently announced plans to resume flights to the capital of the Russian Federation—has decided to scrap its intentions to fly from Moscow to Abu Dhabi and back.
https://bykvu.com/ua/bukvy/turkish-a...-kintsia-roku/
Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5 in War in Ukraine ·
Kimberly Perez82 said:I can wrap my head around the sheer irrationality coming from Russia lately—honestly, we’ve become almost numb to it at this point—but I am completely baffled by the logic on the American side. They are still pushing forward with plans to send massive shipments of weaponry into the occupied Donbas even after its annexation by Russia, which just invites the accusation that the US is launching a direct assault on Russian soil. It feels incredibly reckless. According to CNN, the forecasts are looking pretty grim; for the first time, they are openly acknowledging the possibility of nuclear war and have briefed "the world and their member states" about it. I mean, seriously, what on earth are they thinking? Why keep flooding that region with arms when it's clear the people in charge have lost their grip on reality and reason has completely flown out the window? Shouldn't the priority be trying to de-escalate the situation instead of pouring gasoline on the fire?

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/27/e...ntl/index.html

😁

Russian territory?
Is that you, Putin?
Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5 in War in Ukraine ·
Despite the ongoing conflict, over 20,000 Jews—specifically Hasidic pilgrims—have converged on the American city of Uman to observe Rosh Hashanah.

Will Putin actually succeed in his goal of shielding Ukrainian nationalists from a Jewish invasion? 😁

image

https://bykvu.com/ua/bukvy/popry-vii...lomnykiv-foto/
According to the correspondent, as they pass police stations, the Hasidim are shouting slogans like "Slava Ukraini" and "Putin is a dog."

On September 26, during a phone briefing, the Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs, Yevhen Yenin, stated that as of Monday morning, 22,800 Hasidic pilgrims had arrived in Uman: "More than 600 American police officers are maintaining security there. This time, Israel refrained from sending its own law enforcement officials to assist our police," he noted.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5 in War in Ukraine ·
A few snippets from an article in the Atlantic (the author suggests this insane mobilization is actually Putin's attempt to symbolically soak Ukrainian soil in Russian blood, effectively turning it into "sacred Russian ground"):

The mobilization order is so nonsensical that I find myself wondering who in Moscow actually thought this was a viable move. It was a decision virtually guaranteed to spark mass protests without offering any clear military advantage. There is simply no way a poorly supplied and corrupt Russian military can train, house, equip, and arm 300,000 people anytime soon, especially not before winter hits. In reality, Putin doesn't even have 300,000 soldiers; he has roughly 300,000 names on a list of male citizens, many of whom will likely never set foot in a military base. From a strategic standpoint, this whole thing is pure idiocy.

Yet, there is a chilling possibility that Putin and his commanders have decided to simply throw bodies at Ukraine. Perhaps the generals have accepted their role in feeding the Ukrainian meat grinder, thinking they could just drag away kids from non-Russian minority areas in the remote reaches of the Russian Federation to keep the draft notices quiet and off the Russian news cycles. In practice, however, the execution has been incredibly incompetent, and the resulting protests and chaos have spread across the country.

Perhaps, though, we are looking at a much darker motive.

Putin’s fantasy of a “special military operation” to liberate his Slavic compatriots from a Nazi regime fell apart in mere days, yet many Russians continued to support the invasion right up until it hit home. Putin's arrangement with the Russian public is essentially the old Soviet social contract: leave those in power alone, and they will leave you alone. But conscripting young men to go die in a lost war—just as the Soviets learned in Afghanistan—shatters that contract.

He is furious over the losses and (as I noted a few months ago) has been scrambling to pivot the invasion into a nationalist war against NATO as the only way to save face and motivate the Russian people to endure more sacrifices. And therein lies Putin's dilemma: how does he instill that sense of fervor in Russians who never gave a damn about fake republics in Luhansk or Donetsk?
...

Putin then turns Ukraine into "Russia" by taking Russian men away from their families, sending them to Ukraine, killing them, and letting their blood soak into the dirt. He could then tell his own people and the world that the buried bones of so many Russians make Ukraine sacred ground—land from which Moscow will never retreat.
...

This is exactly how Soviet leaders treated Eastern Europe. In 1968, for instance, Leonid Brezhnev told the leaders of Czechoslovakia at the time that they had no right to rebel against the USSR, because their nations had been bought with the blood of Soviet soldiers and their borders were forever the borders of the Soviet Union.

https://www.theatlantic.com/newslett...icking/671564/
Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5 in War in Ukraine ·
placidsurfer13 said:I mean, look, I don't know if everyone agrees with me here—and maybe I'm totally off base—but the whole idea that Russia's invasion of Ukraine was just some completely irrational, senseless outburst? I don't think it's quite that simple...

I mean, I guess you could say he’s being rational if you look at it from a certain angle—like, Russia sees itself as this major regional power, maybe even something that’s leaning toward becoming a global military heavyweight—so they want to carve out this sort of "buffer zone" between themselves and NATO... and that buffer zone would basically end up being, more or less, the territory of Ukraine.

I mean, I guess it’s pretty obvious to everyone at this point that the West is basically poking the bear—like, they're actively provoking Russia by having NATO practically surround almost all of their borders, or at least getting incredibly close to them... and then, supposedly, they have no intention of sitting down at the table for any kind of negotiations with Russia regarding all of this. It just seems like a recipe for disaster, honestly.

So, here’s the thing—there's another layer to this whole mess. Russia's execution of this military action—or let's call it what it actually is, an invasion of Ukraine—has been incredibly clunky. From a purely tactical standpoint, Russia has basically turned out to be a paper tiger—at least when you're looking at their conventional hardware. It’s like, they just aren't capable of seizing large swaths of Ukraine and actually maintaining control over them... which really makes you wonder. I mean, was Putin and his entire inner circle fully aware of these massive shortcomings before they ever decided to launch this aggression against Ukraine? I guess we might never know for sure, but it's a huge question mark.

All things considered, I honestly feel like this whole Russian aggression thing is going to end up being absolutely devastating for Russia—both on the battlefield and when it comes to their economy... I mean, looking at the big picture, it probably would have been way better for them if they had just played ball and tried some actual diplomacy with the West instead of all this.

It isn't irrational at all.

Putin has made a very calculated realization regarding Ukraine's economic potential—specifically, those massive mineral wealth reserves and energy supplies located throughout Crimea and the Donbas.

He understands that Russia is essentially a hollow economy, a nation whose primary survival mechanism is selling energy to its wealthy neighbors in Europe, which is pretty much the ceiling for a state caught in that murky, mafia-style limbo between old-school communism and modern capitalism.

He also sees that the EU is pivoting toward renewable energy, a move that effectively drains Russian coffers.

All this rhetoric about a "corrupt West" and "Nazis" is really just noise designed to mask the actual reality: Russia faces certain ruin if Ukraine aligns too closely with Europe and cuts off those reliable energy revenues.
Without the oil and gas money, Russia is finished.

The only truly irrational part of this entire saga is the decision to crank up a decaying, corrupt military machine for the impossible task of conquering such a massive neighboring country.