Posts by feralhawk45

Melissa Peterson19 said:Are you seriously talking about the largest nation on the planet with inexhaustible resources? A massive exporter of food, energy, and raw materials? This is a country that put a man in space sixty years ago. They moved their entire industrial base behind the Rockies to escape the Nazis, churning out tanks and gear that didn't stop until they hit Washington, D.C.!?
Now you’re going to claim they lack technical expertise? Have you ever actually been to Russia, or do you even know anyone there? It’s not like they don't produce anything—they make phones and TVs just like any small-time operation in a garage today.
Any specialized knowledge they need, they can easily buy using nickel, palladium, lithium, and other commodities in this interconnected world.
As for the disgruntled citizens desperate for Western brands, they'll get what they want through the black market.

Believe me, the greater the instability in Russia, the tighter the dictatorship becomes. It will likely be even worse after Putin, because a democracy would simply sell off its resources to the West for trinkets, whereas Russians are a people defined by a strong spirit, deep history, tradition, and culture.

I've been to Russia myself. Their manufacturing (ignoring sheer volume) didn't impress me, and neither did the skill level of their experts.
Sure, any hack can build a TV in a garage, but they're using parts made in the West (or under Western control).

I’m no economist, so I’ll just throw this out there... don't war costs and ramping up military production actually boost GDP since they count as massive spending?

Nathan Thomas12 said:It's like the old saying, "Who's gonna foot the bill?"☕
For us, inflation is just how we're paying off the COVID mess and the Russian aggression—it'll probably drag on for two or three years. Then we move on.
But this Russian aggression and war? That's going to hit a crippled economy hard. Whoever survives will be the ones left talking.

As for me, I’m seeing the bill arrive via the COVID fallout and decarbonization policies. Green energy has to actually compete with fossil fuels if this is going to work. It’s an energy and economic reset, plain and simple.

Nancy Gomez26 said:As if those gadgets are actually vital to the war effort.

Maybe they aren't vital for the front lines, but losing access to Western brands is hitting the Russian middle class where it hurts.

Bryan Booth82 said:And isn't that exactly what sanctions are designed to do? To bleed them dry through those margins.

lp

Exactly. That was my point all along.

Noah Diaz said:Russia is running bone-dry on electronic components. That’s why they can't build missiles and have resorted to looting TVs and appliances across Ukraine like amateurs. 🤣

Ever stop to wonder where almost all this tech actually originates? 😁

Take Chinese manufacturers, for example:
https://www.ibisworld.com/china/mark...ring-industry/

Or look at the massive Chinese distributors:
https://www.rantle.com/
https://www.kynix.com/
https://www.lcsc.com/

You can even buy it by the pound on sites like Alibaba:
https://www.alibaba.com/countrysearc...omponents.html

Sanctions are being bypassed regardless. Some Russian commodities—raw materials—will always find a buyer, just like sanctioned goods will always find their way to Russian consumers.

The real issue for the Russians is the math. They’re forced to dump their raw materials at a massive discount while paying insane premiums to acquire anything under sanction.

Are Russians heading to Mexico (or Turkey) carrying rubles, or are they using dollars (or Euros)?

Does anyone know what the street rate is for swapping dollars (euros) for rubles in Washington, D.C.?

When it comes to future generations, I’m thinking specifically about my little grandson.

If we burn through half of our known fossil fuel reserves at today's rate, life on this planet—at least for us mammals—is finished. Maybe some elite few will survive under glass domes.

All those endless calculations and energy strategies mean nothing if you don't factor in the "COP26" variable. You can't just treat ecology as something separate from economics and politics. It’s all one mess.

Are Russians fleeing with their rubles in hand?
Can I swap rubles for dollars or euros in Mexico City? If so, what kind of exchange rate am I looking at?
What about those Russians heading to Finland with nothing but rubles... can they actually buy anything with them, or even trade them for euros?
For Russians holding foreign currency accounts back home... how much cash—dollars, euros, whatever—can they actually withdraw from their banks?

...or is everyone just running out of Russia with nothing but a wad of dollar bills stuffed in their socks?

Donna Harris11 said:The opinion of the average citizen in the European Union doesn't really matter—or at least, that's what Annalena Baerbock seems to think.

Honestly, I’m just relieved Annalena isn't the German Chancellor.
Truth be told, I regret Merkel ever holding that office... she pulled all the strings to favor Putin, basically handing him the leverage he uses to blackmail the European Union.
Schröder deserves to be dragged through the mud... a blatant, bribed pro-Russian hack... someone exactly like you.
By the way... why do you even care about the state of the European Union when you aren't even part of it?

Michelle Young50 said:Hand on heart, our heating infrastructure is completely neglected in basically every major city—it’s just like the water systems where we lose about 40% of the supply to leaks. In certain neighborhoods, or even just specific apartment buildings, it gets so stiflingly hot that people are forced to keep their windows wide open. A massive chunk of energy is wasted just trying to get heat from the plant to the consumer because the grid is so poorly maintained. Beyond that, everyone has just become accustomed to discomfort rather than actual comfort. It’s ridiculous when you walk into a shopping mall in the middle of winter wearing a heavy coat, only to find it’s so unnaturally hot inside that you have to strip down just to breathe. What is the point?

And then come the summers, and you actually have to pack something warm because it's freezing outside.

Rest in peace.

Nancy Gomez26 said:Russia will likely resurface as a supplier eventually. They probably won't reclaim the massive market share they once held, but for the sake of supply diversification, they'll find a way back in. It’s basic economics: you want multiple players competing for market share. If we fall into the trap of relying on a single source again, history will simply repeat itself. The whole game is about maintaining a delicate balance between various interests.

I'm with you on this. Misunderstandings happen when people look at things through different lenses—economic vs. environmental. Developed nations can afford to prioritize the latter, but they have to play it smart. Move cautiously. If they push too hard on the green agenda without looking ahead, they risk handing over their economic and technological edge.

Nancy Gomez26 said:I realize it feels like a distant prospect right now, but one day, Russian gas will flow back into Europe... eventually. Only the price tag will have to reflect the new reality. The war will pass, and the Russians will find themselves wondering, "Who let this happen?" or perhaps, "How did we even get ourselves into this mess?"

Personally, I hope the era of Russian gas is dead and buried for the EU.
Even China knows fossil fuels are a liability. Sure, they’re burning through them like crazy right now, but their long-term play is all about green energy.

analogbear5 said:Do you honestly think switching to green energy is this simple thing that would've happened already if it weren't for the "fossil fuel lobby"?

Judging by everyone on this forum, most people just want cheap power without giving a damn about future generations—they want their AC at 65 in the summer and their heat cranked to 75 in the winter.

Look, I agree the transition isn't simple, but I'm convinced the only thing standing in our way is the fossil fuel lobby.
Cheap today usually means paying through the nose tomorrow.

Jonathan Martinez11 said:France has a ton of their nuclear plants undergoing maintenance right now, so they've gone from being major exporters to importers at the absolute worst time.
The shutdown of several nuclear reactors duo to corrosion issues Has contributed to The French electricity price increase as Power production Has dramatically decreased in The country

Only 24 of the 56 reactors operated by energy giant EDF were online on Thursday.

France, which traditionally exports electricity, is now an importer.

Look, I’m no conspiracy theorist. But someone should have forced people to actually think about energy and ecology, rather than just chasing profits off cheap energy from a time when the planet was in a completely different ecological balance. Paris... the City of Light... looks lovely, sure, but the planet is paying the price, and we're staring down a scenario even worse than a nuclear war. People won't start caring about energy (gas, oil, coal) until it starts hitting them right in the wallet.
There are too many shady middlemen making money in the shadows... and they pay taxes on those dirty profits, which eventually flow into alternative energy sources.
The real battle isn't being fought between Russia and Ukraine (the West), it's between the fossil fuel lobby and green tech.
The country (the planet) is heading toward disaster... and I'm not saying that as some green politician.
Where does Russia fit in? They're just a century behind the developed world.

Adam Lee13 said:Honestly, this is just pure market manipulation, and for some reason, the European Union refuses to step in and slap a price cap on it... I mean, come on, electricity prices spiked ten times over. Especially those folks in France, they’ve got plenty of "excuses" to jack up the rates, haha... And in Germany, renewables supposedly cover 50% of the load, but two-thirds of those renewable setups are locked into fixed-price contracts...

The whole thing feels like a massive shell game played on the common folk, basically forcing households and big industry to scramble for solar installs and obsess over energy efficiency. The European Union actually has the tools to cap prices for electricity and gas, so why allow this kind of shady market gambling and exchange trading to run wild during a crisis and a war? It makes zero sense.

Do you really think OPEC is just going to sit there and watch this unfold calmly? With how Russia is messing with their short-term goals by wrecking the future of fossil fuels. For the major oil and gas exporters, these sky-high prices aren't exactly helping their bottom line—they definitely don't want to accelerate the transition to other energy sources, but this situation is pushing that shift incredibly hard... from what I can gather, converting gas plants to run on fuel oil or something similar is actually pretty straightforward...

Besides, China is paying about $148 for 1,000 cubic meters of Russian gas—it’s basically a take-it-or-leave-it deal. So, if China can do it, why can't the European Union dictate terms to Russia? They could, but they won't... it seems like they're actually benefiting from this mess. I refuse to believe our leaders are just total idiots.

And all this nonsense with central heating and gas warming throughout the European Union needs to stop. In the winter, you close the windows. Your apartment doesn't need to be 75 degrees just so you can walk around in a t-shirt in early March, and nobody should be blasting the heat from 11 PM to 6 AM.

What you wrote sounds like you were listening to my lecture back in October 2021. I was referring to Glasgow... back then, I said the era of cheap energy was dead. Fuel would hit $8 or $9 a gallon, and electricity prices would have to climb significantly above the cost of net and TV. What belongs underground should stay underground. A student once asked me how ecology could ever triumph over economics. My answer was simply, "we'll see."
Back in March, they asked me: "Did you know there would be a war?" I had no clue... or maybe I'm lying. I did post a forecast on this forum giving it an 80% chance of happening.
Anyway, we have to brace ourselves for a new reality. I'm no economist... just a physicist.
Best.