casualtiger2 said:I honestly think cutting off the gas supply right now would backfire. 1. It wouldn't stop the war—that evil little gnome has enough cash to keep things moving regardless—and those sanctions won't really start hitting the Russian public where it hurts for a few years anyway. 2. The immediate economic fallout—especially for Germany—would just tank their ability to help Ukraine, whether it's military aid, financial support, or helping refugees. 3. Besides, doesn't Ukraine still get a cut from the transit fees?
This war is definitely going to drag on for another year or two. In the meantime, we need to go full speed ahead on phasing out Russian energy—coal by the end of the year, oil within a year, and gas within two. We also need to ramp up renewable capacity. After that, the key is keeping those sanctions in place for at least another 5 to 10 years. That’s how you prevent that evil gnome, or whoever takes his place, from being able to fund any more military action for a long, long time—plus, we have to insist on war reparations.
That's a fair point. Cutting off the gas wouldn't necessarily end the conflict. Just imagine if that happened and Putin decided, "Fine, we're leaving Ukraine, everything stays occupied." There's just no way that happens; it would be his downfall. In fact, he might just strike back even harder at Ukraine, maybe even resorting to chemical or tactical nuclear weapons just to wrap the whole thing up quickly. If a recession hits the EU, people are going to lose a lot of sympathy for Ukrainians. They'll be too busy worrying about keeping their jobs or trying to explain to their kids why they can't go on vacation this year or next.
Bryan Booth82 said:I don't know how much you've been following this, but one side just blinked. They finally folded. Go ahead, take a guess which one. Best,
Are you serious? I must have missed it, but I bet Russia will cave the second you give them an answer. 😁 I wonder how much they were pulling in daily from those gas deals. Honestly, I almost feel a little bad that they backed out. Edit: Back in 2021, energy was pretty much the biggest thing the European Union was pulling in from Russia. It actually made up about 62% of the entire region's imports, which I guess works out to roughly 99 billion euros—or about $107.87 billion if you're looking at the conversion. That's a massive chunk of change, just for context.
The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday that German Energy Minister Robert Habeck Has activated The " early warning phase " of Germany's gas emergency law. This whole thing was set up to help manage rationing if things get really bad with supply shortages. Basically, the decision will alert German consumers and businesses to do what they can to conserve energy.
I think this is going to be pretty interesting to watch. At this point, I guess neither side can afford to blink, especially since everyone is so dependent on whatever the other side is willing to provide. ☕
Carl Lee27 said:Look at it from Russia's point of view for a second. The whole continent is basically drifting away from the one healthy lifeline Russia actually has left: exporting energy to the West. I mean, contrary to what some of the armchair experts in this region might claim, those exports are the only thing keeping Russia from sliding straight into poverty, misery, and total obsolescence. Now, sure, oil brings in more cash and you can probably find a buyer for it more easily, but honestly? I think gas is just as vital for them. First off, the gas Russia used to pump into Europe isn't exactly easy to reroute anywhere else, and those other potential customers aren't nearly as wealthy—they're notorious for being incredibly tough negotiators. So, Russia ends up selling gas to China at prices that are significantly lower; it’s so cheap it makes you wonder if they're even making a profit at all. In my opinion, projects like Power of Siberia were really just a way to beef up Russia's leverage when dealing with Europe. And we can't forget the strategic side of things, the stuff you can't just slap a price tag on. For years, Russia used its gas supply to maintain an open door and a sort of privileged status with Germany, gaining political concessions and a million little advantages that are all vanishing now.
To put it bluntly, Russia has very real, very concrete motives to stop Europe from diversifying its energy sources. Since the continent is already cutting ties with Russia anyway, what does Russia have to lose by, say, sabotaging an LNG terminal or something similar? It's a dark thought, but there was actually this article detailing how the GRU has been involved in sabotaging strategic sites across Eastern Europe over the last few years. https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-a...rmine-ukraine/
We also shouldn't overlook the massive Ukrainian gas reserves (which served as a motive for aggression), most of which sit—who knows where—in occupied territory. Imagine the boost that would give to Ukraine and the EU if those were actually tapped into; as for the downside for Russia, well, it goes without saying.
Excluding Russia ’s gas reserves in Asia, Ukraine today holds the second biggest known gas reserves in Europe. As of late 2019, known Ukrainian reserves amounted to 1.09 trillion cubic meters of natural gas, second only to Norway’s known resources of 1.53 trillion cubic meters. Yet, these enormous reserves of energy remain largely untapped. Today, Ukraine has a low annual reserve usage rate of about 2 percent. Moreover, more active exploration may yield previously undiscovered gas fields, which would further increase the overall volume of Ukraine’s deposits. https://hir.harvard.edu/ukraine-energy-reserves/
Commodity prices are absolutely skyrocketing—just like everyone feared at the start—and inflation is right there with them. That's how those connections work, I guess.
The stock market is basically just a mirror for the economy, and it always seems to price in future events way ahead of schedule. It’s funny how people still act surprised whenever things actually start trending upward. The last time we saw a real turnaround like this was back in March 2020. And look, I’m not judging—there are plenty of speculators out there. I guess I have to include myself in that group, too.
Word on the street is they’re planning to get the Moscow Stock Exchange up and running this coming Monday. 🍿
European Union stock markets have already bounced back, so maybe the sanctions against Russia won't actually wreck their economy as much as people thought.
There are huge investments coming into energy and defense, plus you've got those three million future workers who arrived in the European Union. I guess most of them probably won't even go back. 👍
The whole idea behind these sanctions isn't necessarily to bring down Putin—honestly, he’ll probably stay in power. But they really do drain Russia's resources over time. I guess the logic is that every year, their economy just gets a bit more fragile, eventually leaving them without the muscle for any new military adventures. Plus, there's the arms race aspect to consider; they just won't be able to keep up. It's kind of like how the USSR collapsed, right? They were pouring way too much of their GDP into the military, and it just wasn't sustainable in the long run.
Honestly, Russia should probably just pray they can avoid another global recession—especially since they’re partially to blame for one. For now, they might manage to scrape by because raw material prices are staying high, and even though they have to sell at a discount, it's still bringing in a decent amount of cash. Then you have to consider those massive costs from the war and all the sanctions, which are basically swallowing up billions of dollars every single day. I remember back in 2008 when that huge global financial crisis hit; oil prices plummeted from $150 almost overnight. Suddenly, nobody wanted it, and there was way more supply than anyone actually needed. If that kind of thing happens again, Russia could easily slide right back into the 1900s or even the 1800s. Plus, with their nuclear arsenal, they become a danger to both themselves and the rest of the world—it feels a lot like the chaos we saw during the collapse of the USSR.
Paul Anderson7 said:Every day we see a fresh batch of sanctions being rolled out, with everyone predicting Russia’s total collapse and a regressive slide back a century into the dark ages. Regardless of the noise, I can't help but feel that once this war eventually winds down, those sanctions will lose their teeth too. Maybe not everything will be lifted overnight, but I suspect the West will gradually loosen its grip until Russia becomes an interesting partner and a viable place for investment again. Sure, they'll face massive hurdles because they really bungled this one—they won't ever hold the same leverage they had before the invasion—but it won't be quite as catastrophic as people suggest. Unless this spirals into WW3 or some kind of nuclear exchange, I truly believe things will eventually settle into a new equilibrium, mostly because that's simply what works for the West. I'm fairly certain we'd see something like Nord Stream 2 getting back up and running; honestly, it just makes sense for everyone involved.
I'm holding out hope that the West might permanently shift its policy toward self-sufficiency and bolstered military cooperation, though I'm not holding my breath. On the bright side, Russia likely won't have the military capacity to react to anything globally for the next twenty years, but the downside is that such a vacuum might just trigger new conflicts in other volatile regions.
I'm curious to hear your thoughts: if the war stopped right this second and a deal was struck—say, letting Russia keep Crimea and keeping Ukraine out of NATO—what are the odds the West actually maintains these sanctions? How much longer would they hold out, and would we actually stick with more expensive suppliers, or would we quietly pivot back to the cheaper energy options from Russia?
The West is definitely going to keep the sanctions going even after the fighting stops. Even if a peace deal happens, I suspect the situation will end up looking a lot like the two Koreas today. Maybe they'll bend on a few specific details, like certain raw materials that are absolutely essential until a real alternative is found, but I think the process of distancing ourselves from Putin's Russia is pretty much unstoppable. I mean, who could possibly trust him after all those lies and fascist statements? He's just not the kind of reliable partner the West wants to be doing business with in the 21st century.
As far as I'm concerned, any shred of doubt just vanished after Putin gave his speech when the invasion of Ukraine kicked off. There’s absolutely no argument to be made about the righteousness of this fight, nor is there anything to suggest they are defending their homeland from Western conquerors. This is honestly just the most brutal, barbaric act of aggression we've seen since the nineties around here, if not even worse, reminiscent of Nazi ideology.
In his speech, Putin described Ukraine as "historically Russian territory"that was stolen from the Russian Empire, which subsequently fell into the hands of "neo-Nazis" and "corrupt leaders controlled by the West." The US President repeated his claim that Americans in eastern Ukraine are victims of genocide,(even though there isn't any actual evidence for that at all.)
Honestly, this whole idea that China is going to "save" Russia feels totally off to me. You have Russia, with its massive, mostly empty stretches of land and endless natural resources, sitting right next to a powerhouse of 1.4 billion people who are absolutely starving for the exact raw materials Russia has in spades. I mean, what could possibly go wrong there? 🙄 China definitely isn't looking to help build a strong Russia; if anything, it’s the opposite. It seems to me that Russia is becoming more dependent on China than ever before.
Just imagine if we decided to pull a move like they did in Russia tomorrow—like, say, trying to manufacture our own version of Coca-Cola right here at home. Even if we played by the rules and somehow managed to buy out the brand rights for the US, I mean, does anyone honestly think that would actually work? Like, would it even feel the same? A government-backed operation led by some big-shot owner? That’s exactly what’s happening in Russia, too, especially when you factor in all the sanctions and everything else tied up in that mess.
The Associated Press is reporting that US President Joe Biden has signed a law allowing US Airlines to keep foreign aircraft for use on domestic flights. https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/rus...U0aMqdgs7HDTKb
I think they're talking about seizing foreign planes—apparently, there are maybe 500 of them sitting in the US right now.
Rachel Jones8 said:He says they’re still gonna be paying out salaries.
Since the ruble has seen such a massive 50% jump, and payroll costs have dropped off quite significantly—though I guess they weren't exactly huge to begin with—it changes things. Maybe that's part of the equation.
Just looking at those 10 companies that pulled out of Russia (out of about 330 total), you've got over 125,000 people left without jobs. But hey, I guess Šešelj said yesterday that the Russians just nationalized everything anyway, so there's really nothing to worry about. 😁
George Robinson43 said:I actually think he completely miscalculated. To truly tie the West's hands for even a few months, the attack should have been launched before the heating season began. By starting near the end of winter instead, he essentially gifted the West the maneuvering room and time they needed to adapt. That said, I fully endorse this new Russian direction toward self-sufficiency—this rejection of materialism and Western values within the Euro-Asian Orthodox sphere. I wish them nothing but the best! For all those in the West who recoil at modern Western culture, they finally have a place to seek out a spiritual life in the name of Saint Basil!
Over the last, say, six months or so, inflationary pressures have gotten significantly worse. For instance, the Federal Reserve sped up interest rate hikes beyond their original plan because they were worried about runaway inflation. I guess one reason why Putin decided to push for aggression just now was that he might have simply miscalculated. Maybe the timing seemed right to him, and he figured the West wouldn't want to risk triggering another recession, especially since we barely managed to crawl out of the COVID-19 crisis. He also totally missed the mark thinking the Ukrainian government would collapse in three days and the whole country would just fall into his lap without much of a fight. I suppose the world might have been a lot more tolerant in that scenario. If the Ukrainians didn't care, and there weren't refugees or massive destruction, why would anyone threaten our fragile economy? As for those Russian values I hear about on certain foreign news networks—things like faith and family—I honestly don't see much "bliss" in the data available. You've got people leaving the country, shrinking populations, alcoholism, HIV issues... plus, their GDP per capita is actually lower than many former Warsaw Pact members, even though they are a way richer nation in terms of natural resources.
Justin Kern67 said:No, Russia's "economic power" isn't anywhere near the level of Spain. What you are trying to reference is just a comparison of GDP between Russia and Spain—an argument a certain pretentious forum user repeats incessantly here. Aside from the fact that GDP can be calculated in several different ways, it essentially tells you nothing about actual "economic power." Now, everyone is busy debating energy prices, food costs, and all the other fallout that these sanctions—and the war in Ukraine in general (whether you believe it or not, Ukraine is also exceptionally vital to the global economy, far more important than Spain)—will leave across Europe. If Spain were to vanish tomorrow with its current economic structure, nobody would even notice.
Russia's economic influence is definitely bigger than Spain's, but if they had invaded Ukraine back in, say, 2019, the impact on the world economy would have been much milder. Back then, raw material prices were lower, supply chains were totally normal, and we weren't dealing with this kind of inflation. I suspect Putin knew exactly what he was doing by attacking now; he probably figured he could pull off the aggression without much interference or heavy sanctions from the West. So, I suppose it really comes down to timing. In the long run, whether it's economic, political, or military, the side with the stronger economy usually wins. And Russia might become pretty irrelevant over the next 30 years once the West finds alternative ways to source those raw materials.
