Posts by urbanotter

swiftjackal11 said:You're sitting here lecturing about sanctions while your own ship is sinking. Go tell Putin.

Don't you worry one bit about that.
If the ship actually goes under, I'll just file a claim with State Farm.😉

I noticed there hasn't been a single meaningful word mentioned regarding the actual impact of these sanctions, so I think I'll head out to grab a coffee with my buddies and let you all sit here and try to come up with something worth discussing.😁 😉

swiftjackal11 said:He only looks out for himself until disaster actually hits his own doorstep. Then, suddenly, everyone else is to blame—even Putin. He'd throw anyone under the bus just to save his own skin, let alone someone in Ukraine. The guy doesn't get that we aren't the ones making these calls; we're just living through the fallout. The only person who can actually stop this aggression is Putin.

Please spare me the melodrama and your supposed crystal ball predictions.

Just get back to discussing the sanctions if you actually have something substantive to contribute regarding them.

Nancy Gomez26 said:Honesty is the best policy.

The real question is how you manage to get by when you're drowning in high-interest credit card debt versus how much easier life feels when you aren't carrying that weight on your shoulders.

I don't think I really need to spell out for you how much more your yields can improve if you opt for something more natural, like spreading some organic manure instead of relying entirely on synthetic fertilizers and planting cover crops.

Nancy Gomez26 said:Most of us posting here have zero direct connection to the implementation of sanctions—nor do we feel most of their consequences personally. Perhaps if we look at the whole group, only Ivan the Terrible feels the weight of this on his own skin. Everything else is just cheering for one side or the other, or rooting against them, based on individual political biases and personal whims.
It is naive to assume that sanctions against Russia are the sole driver behind fuel or grain prices. There are far more variables at play; sanctions are merely one cog in a massive machine.
Regarding food costs—arable land is shrinking while the population continues to swell, and nobody wants to live on half-rations. Fuel prices follow a similar logic. We currently have an administration in power that believes wind turbines and solar panels are a panacea for everything; they would push those green agendas at any cost, even if it means accepting these high energy prices to facilitate their specific policies.

I agree that the pandemic played a role in fueling price volatility in the energy sector, but I was hoping that the lockdowns and the chaos from the early days of the pandemic were finally behind us, allowing prices to stabilize.
But from what I can see, there isn't any sign of fuel or food prices calming down, and I don't see it happening anytime soon.
I certainly agree that certain players are profiting immensely from these high prices, but I am convinced it isn't Europe, and as an American, I'm feeling the direct impact of this.
Sanctions don't just mess with fuel availability and costs; they have also driven up the price of synthetic fertilizers, and we all know how vital that is for maintaining high crop yields.
If we aren't providing the soil with what it needs to thrive, then the idea of America being self-sufficient in food production becomes very questionable, not to mention the skyrocketing costs involved.

In my view, the belief that America is entirely self-sufficient when it comes to food production is nothing more than a comforting illusion, and it's a mantra that is becoming harder to sustain every day.

crimsoncyclist71 said:The best proof of how effective these sanctions actually are is the sheer volume of posts you "neutrals" vomit out every day trying to prove they aren't working. 👍

If sanctions aren't working as intended or expected, that's a matter of hard facts, not just the number of posts being written.

So many respected figures and economists are pointing out that they are either ineffective or poorly designed.
I might be missing something here, but I honestly don't see where these sanctions have achieved any kind of meaningful breakthrough or actual shift in policy.
From what I can gather, for the most part, they’ve just caused suffering, hurting ordinary citizens while setting entire countries back by decades.
We’re seeing this exact pattern with the sanctions imposed on Russia and Belarus; there's no sign of a change in the direction of their policies on the battlefield. If anything, the endless influx of increasingly modern and lethal weaponry only serves to prolong the suffering, drive more people to flee their homes, and increase the death toll.

And this whole idea of "helping" through arms shipments is pushing the country into a financial hole that won't be filled until 2077, regardless of whether the Ukrainian nationalists "defeat" Russia.

Americans boast about providing free aid to Ukraine, but it’s a lie—they’ve plunged an invaded nation into staggering debt that won't be paid off until 2077!

Nancy Gomez26 said:Silo capacity isn't the issue; there's enough space (at least where I live, and I assume elsewhere too). When it comes to storage, the real headache is managing aging facilities that are still being used, though that's slowly improving as new construction picks up.
The actual bottleneck with wheat is the logistics of producing specific varieties—the so-called "enhancers." High-quality bread flour is usually a blend of different wheat types, and without those specific additives, you aren't getting premium flour. I was talking to some local grain buyers yesterday, and they were claiming this year's crop quality is subpar due to low protein levels. They suggested mills will have to lean heavily on enhancers to hit standard quality specs (though it’s hard to tell how much of that is reality and how much is just an excuse to drive down purchase prices). On top of that, growing these enhancer varieties isn't exactly rocket science—you just need the right seed—but these crops have lower yields. That means they have to be sorted out during intake and stored separately. Managing that within a massive, high-volume system that processes thousands of tons daily without stopping is a logistical nightmare. And since you have to pay a premium for these lower-yield crops, asking American agribusinessmen to swallow that cost is like pulling a tooth without anesthesia.

Well, finally a direct hitin the middle 👍

crimsoncyclist71 said:You mean this?

The Pope implicitly accused Russia of aggression and imperialism in Ukraine.

LINK

Or do you just cherry-pick quotes whenever it suits your narrative? ☕

Actually, check this one out too.

Pope Francis blames the West for escalating the war in Ukraine? 'We aren't seeing the full drama unfolding in the background'

https://www.nytimes.com/news/pope-ukraine-west-drama-1594481

He doesn't say a single word about the sanctions or the actual strikes on Russia; he just completely misses the point and goes off on tangents.

crimsoncyclist71 said:And like every other "neutral" party, he refuses to explain why rape isn't some gray area...
It's her fault. She was wearing a mini skirt. ☕

It doesn't even occur to you to look up what Pope Francis actually thinks regarding the Russian aggression against Ukraine and whether sanctions are morally effective.

Even if you aren't a Christian, a Catholic, or a believer, you should at least be following what the head of the Catholic Church has to say about this whole situation with the invasion and the sanctions.🙄

Melissa Rivera5 said:Aren't you getting a little too old to be out on the water chasing fish? 5 gallons an hour? Man, a buddy of mine has a plane that burns less than that—and I mean literally.

When I mentioned that I still plan on heading down to the coast, I meant there are plenty of ways to own a vessel without actually being out on the water myself.

I have some colleagues in the shipping industry who operate much larger vessels with far more powerful engines; they burn upwards of 50 liters per hour, which adds up to about 1,000 liters a day, 350 days a year. Their ships have massive fuel tanks holding 30 to 40 tons, and they rely on tankers to deliver their blue diesel.
It makes you wonder how much those sanctions actually hit them, because I’ve heard stories about owners having to lay up their ships simply because they can't turn a profit with current blue diesel prices.

Ultimately, though, the sanctions seemed to trigger a shift in other areas—things that actually hurt the USA much more deeply.

An Indian firm has made its first purchase of Russian coal using Yuan, according to the Wall Street Journal.

http://www.balkanspress.com/index.ph...san65eYWbL6hAY

This brief analysis really illustrates just how well-conceived these sanctions actually are.

Quote: dark forecast from Germany: Is this the end for electric cars? Lithium shortages predicted by 2030.

So, despite all the sanctions, it looks like we will be relying on hydrocarbons for a long time to come, and Russian oil continues to find plenty of buyers all over the world.

crimsoncyclist71 said:The quotation marks tell me everything I need to know about you.
It’s an objective fact that this is aggression, yet you lack the decency to admit it. Your arguments are just as hollow as your rhetoric.

I’d prefer we discuss the actual impact of sanctions rather than getting boggedED down in ideology and semantics.

It looks like you were so distracted by my punctuation that you completely missed the core point I was trying to make, which was far more significant than a few marks on a page.

My position aligns perfectly with what Pope Francis has stated; even though I'm not a religious person myself, I have a great deal of respect for him as a human being.

darkdriver said:Honestly, the elderly are out there struggling to fill up their tanks—and once they actually have enough cash to pull into a gas station, they’ll probably be too broke from the price of gas and groceries just to even enjoy the meal on their table.

Unfortunately for me, I’m running a much larger setup with a 1,000-gallon tank, and my engine burns through fuel a bit faster at about 5 gallons an hour.
It seems these "sanctions" have kept my boat tied to the dock for two months now, and it’s genuinely threatening the livelihoods of four or five families who depend on this work.

Sadly, these sanctions don't just impact the people sitting around, waiting for an excuse to walk down to the local coffee shop to kill time by coming up with clever nicknames for Vladimir Putin.

hollowdriver13 said:Spot on. You voted in the polls supporting the Russian side, so why try to muddy the waters now?

Just so there's no confusion or anyone claiming I'm making stuff up, here's the link to the poll right here on the forum.

The problem is that the poll only offers two options, much like this one of yours:

Either you're with us, or you're against us.

But I don't see the world in such black and white terms, personally.

Is there any news regarding the sanctions, or should I chime in with my own thoughts for a bit?

Here are some little pamphlets that the "Seven Samurai" crew "arranged"—everything is moving exactly according to their champagne-soaked plan.

A cold shower for Europe from Canada: 'Sure, we can send you gas, but we only have enough for one single LNG terminal...'

crimsoncyclist71 said:Why are you so hell-bent on justifying one country's aggression against another?

I haven't said anything about justifying anyone's actions—not just Russia's "aggression" toward Ukraine.
It feels like if you aren't standing right here next to us and thinking exactly like we do, then you must be our enemy, which is such a flawed way to look at things.

I made my position very clear a long time ago, and I’ve stayed consistent about where I stand.

And just so I don't go off on a tangent—which I know you all love to accuse me of doing—

my perspective aligns closely with what Pope Francis has shared, and while I'm not a religious man myself, I have a great deal of respect for him as a human being.

Whether people call him Pope Francis Putofil or debate whether he's actually justifying aggression against anyone, that's beside the point.

I'm asking you please to stop veering off-topic and projecting things onto me that I have never said and certainly don't believe.🙂🙂

swiftjackal11 said:To really get the issue, you have to put yourself in those shoes. Say I run a shop ten feet away from yours. But for reasons only I know, every single time you walk in, I bring up your wife. 😁Because of that, you aren't going to shop with me anymore; you'll just go to the shop a hundred feet away instead. You wouldn't call that a shot to your own foot, would you?

That comparison feels a bit weak to me, and honestly, it doesn't really address what we're talking about here.

But let me ask you this: how would you react if you were surrounded by women, and there was one particular woman who meant everything to you,

only to have someone swoop in and take all of them away, eventually setting their sights on your favorite one too?
Would you actually invite me out for a beer to celebrate the fact that I stole your lady, or would you be looking to shoot me in the foot?

Anyway, is there anything new happening on your end regarding those self-imposed sanctions? Maybe we can get back to that topic, provided we don't both catch COVID and end up stuck in total isolation.😉

bluerider63 said:Sanctions definitely work. I mean, Russia is pulling in oil money like there's no tomorrow, while back here in the States, we're getting hit with news that gas prices are jumping to $5.25/gal.

The sanctions placed on Russia aren't the only ones that have ended up hurting the West.
When we imposed embargoes on Venezuela, it left their oil facilities in such terrible technical shape
that even if Venezuela wanted to ramp up production right now, they simply couldn't—not until the entire system is overhauled and brought back to a state where increasing output is even possible.

We saw the exact same pattern with Iran; under the weight of sanctions, they haven't been able to expand their capacity.
And let's be honest, Trump's unilateral decision to tear up the Iran nuclear deal certainly didn't help Iran find ways to increase production either.
Then there is Biden's ban on selling weapons to the Saudis because of the war in Yemen, which led the Saudi prince Mohammed bin Salman to essentially ignore Biden. They can't even settle on a date for Biden to visit Saudi Arabia to plead with the crown prince to meet the American demand for increased production.

That prince recently remarked that he puts more faith in Putin's word, since he has consistently honored his agreements, whereas he doesn't trust the Americans—even when they sign formal treaties, they seem to look for any loophole to walk away whenever it no longer serves their interests.
Consequently, the chances of increasing production to boost supply and lower crude oil prices are slim to none.
The US is self-sufficient in oil production, and frankly, current prices suit them just fine because they allow them to maintain expensive production through fracking techniques.
The real issue arises when the companies owning these reserves export the oil to Europe if the payoff is better there than it is domestically.
In years past, when prices climbed, these companies would immediately start drilling new wells.
But that practice has stalled; they aren't opening new wells even when prices look favorable.
The reason is simple: drilling requires massive capital investment, and with prices being so volatile, they fear that if oil prices drop, those investments won't ever pay off.

All in all, the outlook isn't exactly bright for the West regarding an increase in oil production that would result in lower market prices.
Nsi that little guy doesn't care about Biden, so I suppose we shouldn't be surprised if he spends his time talking to ghosts instead.

You could have heard all of this today during a ten-minute segment featuring analyst Maria Gatara in conversation with Željko Kardum.
At this point, it feels like sanctions are becoming less of a strategic tool and more of a shot in the foot.

bluerider63 said:Sanctions definitely work. I mean, Russia is pulling in oil money like there's no tomorrow, while back here in the States, we're getting hit with news that gas prices are jumping to $5.25/gal.

Unless the federal government steps in with more intervention,

we really shouldn't forget that there is no such thing as a "free lunch."

The administration doesn't have a "money printer" like some people might think; they can only take from one pocket to pay another.

And as far as I know, they haven't quite mastered what the ancient alchemists spent centuries chasing—trying to turn lead into gold.🤔

p.s.

Or, following the old tradition, they could just go deeper into debt.

darkdriver said:Honestly, I bet like 90%—maybe even more—of the crews looking at that PDF don't even care about the fuel prices. It could be anything, really... $10As far as they're concerned...

I suppose they're all just cruising around on electric scooters instead.😁

Melissa Rivera5 said:I caught the whole thing. Putin kept saying Russia doesn't stand a chance against NATO, but honestly, it was pretty obvious they were planning to hit Ukraine no matter what happens.

It honestly feels like we weren't watching the same interviews.☕

Even though this isn't strictly on topic, I thought I should mention it

At 5:05 PM today, you can catch one of fifteen interviews where Oscar winner Oliver Stone sat down with Putin. It’s quite striking because they didn't shy away from any subject; there really wasn't anything off-limits during their conversation.

It'll be airing on Discovery Channel at 5:05 PM.

crimsoncyclist71 said:

The cost of producing a single barrel of Brent crude oil came in at around $42 for Russian onshore projects, and $44 for offshore projects, IHS Markit estimated. That was more than twice the $17 per barrel production costs in Saudi Arabia — the cheapest in the world.

LINK

Oil production in Russia costs $42 a barrel. In Saudi Arabia, it's $17, which is the lowest. Where did you get that $7 figure from? Probably from the myths you're always spinning.

If you had actually taken the time to read the article through to the end, you might have realized that the actual cost of extraction is much closer to my initial estimate; instead, you jumped to a conclusion based solely on the first paragraph.

The figures I cited were gathered from Dekanić or Štern, both of whom I consider to be among the premier experts on the oil business in America. I'd give the edge to Štern, given he spent his entire professional career working directly in operations.

As for the rest of the article, there is this specific passage:

Differences in production costs don't just depend on how easy it is to extract the resource or the project's location, but also on the taxes levied by governments in various jurisdictions. The U.S. Census Bureau estimates that operating costs without taxes would sit around $32 per barrel in Russia, according to reports from RBC.

To be clear, I never claimed the cost was $7 per barrel; I said it was $9 in Saudi Arabia and $19 in Russia.

It stands to reason that pulling oil out of the harsh conditions in Siberia is going to be significantly more expensive than extracting it in many other parts of the world.

I won't go down that rabbit hole here because I know I'm being watched quite closely as it is,

but I simply wanted to point out that even with sanctions in place, Russia is still making a massive profit at $80 a barrel. Since the major oil companies there are state-owned, an enormous amount of cash flows directly into the national budget, providing Russia with the funds necessary to finance the war despite all the sanctions.

Keep in mind that the extraction cost per barrel in Russia is merely an estimate from IHS Markit, just as that $32 figure is just an estimate from the U.S. Census Bureau.

So, despite the sanctions, Russia continues to export oil with healthy margins to Sika, where it gets refined into derivatives and shipped globally, essentially serving as Indian products and derivatives.

The sanctions have been a massive failure for the West. Looking at the big picture, it isn't just self-inflicted damage; it’s an assault on all the postulates and ideals that the West and America have clung to for years, treating them like sacred dogmas.

But that is a much larger topic, and I see the moderator has already turned red and warned us to stick to the subject matter.
It is actually quite difficult to stay on track when sanctions are so deeply intertwined with strategic shifts in the global landscape, and drifting away from the core topic is incredibly easy to do.