Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)
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hiddeneagle76 said:I was reading this article about Israeli demographics—really fascinating stuff... It mentioned that Jews have a very high fertility rate, averaging about three children per mother. Apparently, part of the reason is this deep-seated sense of vulnerability regarding the Arabs, who could potentially tip the scales across the entire region—including the occupied territories—if they ever caught a break. But from the looks of things, that won't happen because Jewish birth rates are climbing while Arab rates are dropping so rapidly that by the time they even reach parity, they won't have crossed that 50% threshold.
Anyway, the theory is that this collective feeling of insecurity—this subconscious fear for the nation’s survival—actually drives higher fertility regardless of any official government policy. And, interestingly enough... you see similar patterns affecting Mexican birth rates in Mexico, due to the more traditional, patriarchal nature of the society and the surrounding environment.
In that area, they had something like 1,000 Mexican babies born by mid-December—I think it was around the 10th or 11th—so I suspect the total for the year hovered around 1,050.
Sadly, I suspect we’re seeing negative natural growth there too... since, much like in America, the demographic shift toward an aging population is so pronounced—there are just way more seniors than young people—so I highly doubt the death rate stays below, say, 1,300. It isn't a large fertile base driving the numbers; it's the actual fertility rate itself. That’s just my honest assessment, at least...
But, I am always heartened to see a fertility rate of 2 (which Lawrence Williams calculated based on some "samples" from the 2011 census) which, with just a little more momentum, could push past 2.15—the actual threshold needed for simple replacement levels.
I'm not sure how much that 2011 census actually matters for Mexicans since there was a massive boycott, so according to those numbers, Mexicans only make up 1.5%, right? I didn't know about that 1,300 death figure. If that's accurate, then there are maybe 100,000 Mexicans left, which would mean their birth rate is slightly better than the average in Mexico. Or maybe there are only 90,000 of them with an 11 per mille birth rate and a massive mortality rate because mostly just old people are left in many places. Given their living conditions, though, their birth rate is decent.