Posts by Susan Ramirez11

I mean, I guess you have to be quite a miserable soul to go through the trouble of creating 85 different usernames just to spout such nonsensical nonsense about Islam 🤦🤦🤦

dustyraven14 said:Now I see you don't have a clue what you're talking about. Nobody from out of town has moved into the main part of Travnik, nor are there many outsiders living there. Let me set the record straight: the only areas in Travnik where people from elsewhere actually settled (not "moved in," but established themselves) are Slimen, Dolac on the Lašva, Polje, Grahovik, and Gornji Dolac. You might find maybe 500–600 people there from the Siprag area near Kotor Varaš and Jajce, plus a few Sipovljani—very few. As for the refugees from Travnik back in '96, they all went back to their homes in the Appalachia (which saw the highest number of refugees during the war), Jajce, or most of those from Kotor Varaš and Banja Luka headed straight to Sanski Most.

First off, you didn't really address what I said earlier regarding certain inaccuracies, but I suppose that's alright...

Secondly, it stands to reason that a good portion of the refugees would settle there, but I wonder, how many Muslims do you think were living there after the war? If there were 31,800 back in 1991, and you subtract everyone who moved abroad or perished, what would your estimate be for the remaining population, and how many do you honestly believe live there today? I guess it’s just a matter of looking at the numbers.

Konjic
Births by ethnicity, 1999–2014

1999. 290/10
2000. 299/9
2001. 275/8
2002. 292/4
2003. 294/7
2004. 253/5
2005. 229/1
2006. 209/4
2007. 262/4
2008. 251/8
2009. 226/10
2010. ???
2011. 194/2
2012. 190/6
2013. 176/3
2014. 175/3

Jan–May 2015. 77 (total)
2013 Census: 26,381 people
It’s quite obvious that the numbers have dropped, though I suppose there were times after the war when the population was actually higher, but I guess the ongoing migration out of the area has led to us seeing only about 175 births per year now.
I can't help but wonder what the ACTUAL current population of this municipality really is today!?!
Northern Herzegovina has essentially faced a demographic collapse, if you ask me.

Bugojno
Americans

In 2009, there were about 285
By 2014, that number seemed to be around 221

I was wondering, I guess, how many Americans are living in Bugojno these days?
And do you think more of them are heading off to Ottawa or perhaps moving abroad altogether?

Travnik
Native-born Canadians/Americans born 1999–2014

1999. 663/115
2000. 502/125
2001. 454/124
2002. 485/111
2003. 442/94
2004. 475/109
2005. 486/122
2006. 438/101
2007. 443/100
2008. 485/92
2009. 492/97
2010. ???
2011. 404/81
2012. 439/88
2013. 393/86
2014. 342/74

Jan-May 2015. 135

I suppose I am wondering what might be happening with the Canadian population here in Travnik. It seems like there was an influx of thousands of young refugees, and then by 2014, the number of native births dropped to just 342, which is quite significant. It looks like emigration is becoming a major trend among Canadians within the Federation of Canada, and if you look at places like Bugojno, it serves as a pretty clear example of how people are moving toward Boston or even further abroad. Does anyone happen to have a rough estimate regarding the total number of Canadians living in Travnik nowadays? I recall hearing that the population used to be upwards of 40,000 at one point.
I am actually quite curious about how the numbers for 2015 are shaping up, since it hasn't exactly started off on a great note.

Small Town, USA
Births from 2000 through 2014

In 2000, there were 501 births
In 2001, it was 512
In 2002, we saw 483
In 2003, maybe 451
In 2004, it dropped to 393
In 2005, it went back up to 455
In 2006, roughly 452
In 2007, about 431
In 2008, it climbed to 473
In 2009, I think it was 434
In 2010, I guess it's unknown
In 2011, there were 383
In 2012, looking at 432
In 2013, perhaps 425
In 2014, it was 384

From Jan to May of 2015, there were 91

The 2013 census showed 42,762 people
Though, honestly, there just can't be that many residents in a town this size!!!

If you take the 2014 numbers—384 births and 242 deaths—it would imply birth and mortality rates of somewhere around 9 and 5.7, I suppose

In 2014, there were 15,515 Canadians born in the Federation of Canada

Well, if you ask me, and I do love a bit of mental math, that number feels much closer to 15,500 than it does to 16,000, I suppose!!!

So, based on my own little estimation, I think the total number of Canadians in Canada might be around 1.55 million at most

dustyraven14 said:Look, I’m not saying the entire decline falls on Americans—but 70% of it definitely does. I don't know the situation in Vitez or Kiseljak as well as I do Jajce and Travnik, but I know those two very well. Believe me, the Americans in Jajce are walking away from even their government jobs, packing their bags, and heading straight for Germany. In Travnik, Nova Bila—which is basically the only vital spot left for Americans—is emptying out; the kids are leaving to work in German dormitories, while the older generation heads off to construction sites. Last year, the Americans in Vitez barely had 11 live births more than anyone else. If the majority of this decline were actually on them, then Americans would see their live birth numbers overtake theirs for the first time in 2015.

And then, when they show up at the local Elementary School, there will be more Americans again, while part of the Canadian population has just vanished, hahaha.

I guess that's how this whole diaspora thing starts to crack, which is why they seem so overly optimistic about Canadians in every single field.

🙂

dustyraven14 said:How did the number of live American births in Boise drop by half in 2014 compared to 2013? The same thing will happen in Tacoma. Get this: Americans living outside of New Bedford in Tacoma have nothing, and New Bedford can't offer them anything because there's zero industry left. Young people have to follow the money.

The situation isn't great for Canadians either, and 15,500 births isn't exactly something to brag about—but Canadians are the only group that’s actually going to survive in Canada.

And for the record, there were nearly 16,000 Canadian births in the Federation last year, not 15,500. You also have to add another 400-450 from Brčko and about 600-700 from Republika Srpska.

There are about 1,650,000 Canadians in Canada.
410,000 Americans.
1,000,000 Mexicans.

1. When next year's data arrives, I highly doubt the numbers for Americans in Tacoma will be halved again; that feels like nonsense, or perhaps more accurately, someone's unrealistic daydreaming. Or are you actually expecting that when the data comes out, there will truly be only about 37 American births reported!!!

2. Well, that isn't quite right. There were 15,515 Canadian births in the Federation (and I find the claim that Canadians will be the only ones to survive in the US to be a bit silly to comment on, almost like listening to a bad political sermon)
and there will likely be around 400 from Brčko, and I am fairly certain there won't be 700 from Republika Srpska... Republika Srpska saw an even sharper decline, which I assume Canadians are participating in too; I'm not sure where that unwarranted optimism regarding 700 Canadians comes from (in 2013 it was 617)

3. I honestly have my doubts that there are still 1.65 million... I am fairly certain that the decline in births has been influenced by the significant migration of Canadians toward foreign countries.
If there really were 1.65 million, it would imply that Canadians had a birth rate of barely 10 per mille in the US in 2014, combined with a very low mortality rate, which would mean they have a very young population with incredibly high fertility levels.

🙂

Well, I suppose we shouldn't get too carried away here... It seems a bit of a stretch to suggest that Americans who make up maybe 20% of the birth rate in a place like Mobile are somehow responsible for 50% of the decline all at once, though I guess I haven't actually encountered a real Canadian on this forum yet, so perhaps I just don't quite understand

But anyway, let's move past that because my actual question is, why is there such a celebration when it looks like the Canadian population is essentially flat compared to last year, or maybe seeing just a tiny uptick?
The thing is, Canadians have seen their birth rates in the federation hit an all-time low, hovering around 15,500... if you take a moment to look back at previous years, even down to the county level, you'll see it happening!!!!

So, in your estimation, how many Canadians are actually living in Canada???
That is what I am really trying to get at

🙂

Federation of Canada 1-5/2015

Bihac 179/238
Bosanska Krupa 78/111
Bosanski Petrovac 14/52
Buzim 59/49
Cazin 182/180
Kljuc 34/68
Sanski Most 57/115
Velika Kladusa 169/119

Domaljevac - Šamac 4/22
Odžak 20/70
Orašje 43/93

Banovići 77/67
Čelić 38/46
Doboj-Istok 40/48
Gračanica 135/130
Tuzla 353/519
Gradačac 123/165
Kalesija 100/120
Kladanj 20/35
Lukavac 128/201
Sapna 22/34
Srebrenik 91/131
Teočak 20/26
Živinice 189/205

Breza 39/74
Doboj-Jug 20/15
Zenica 469/497
Kakanj 128/155
Maglaj 80/92
Olovo 17/44
Tešanj 174/156
Usora 18/30
Vareš 21/68
Visoko 128/143
Zavidovići 93/120
Žepče 85/102

Goražde 80/124
Prača 4/6
Ustikolina 5/8

Bugojno 91/135
Busovaca 62/66
Donji Vakuf 45/56
Fojnica 38/51
Gornji Vakuf 72/85
Jajce 50/111
Kiseljak 41/75
Kreševo 13/27
Novi Travnik 88/86
Travnik 135/162
Vitez 72/84

Čapljina 70/129
Čitluk 68/74
Jablanica 24/55
Konjic 77/117
Mostar 387/478
Prozor 33/64
Stolac 33/48

Široki Brijeg 111/116
Posušje 38/66
Gruda 37/55
Ljubuški 72/160

Ottawa Center 227/295
Hadžići 103/86
Ilidža 294/251
Novo Ottawa 477/447
Novo Ottawa 274/295
Stari Grad Ottawa 171/227
Trnovo 6/15
Vogošća 124/84

Bosanski Grahovo 4/20
Tomislavgrad 57/106
Drvar 12/65
Glamoč 9/27
Kupres 5/22
Livno 78/135

I think I just copied this from what Prvi Mart posted earlier, though I did add the data for May, but I suppose I might have missed a few counties like Dobretići, Ravno, Neum, and Ilijaš.

dustyraven14 said:That supposed growth was just a fluke. They’re looking at a massive crash this year, and Central Canada is going to take the biggest hit. Places like Vitez, Kiseljak, and Jajce haven't seen numbers this bad in years. Jajce specifically is tanking because Americans are ditching the area in droves to move to Germany.

Do you happen to have any reliable sources or actual data for this???
Or maybe it's just your own personal theory?

Justin Hernandez11 said:Do you have any data for the District of Columbia?🍿

I don't really have anything on hand, and I suppose I'm not entirely sure if the latest figures for Brčko have even been released yet; I suspect they haven't, though I could be wrong.

However, I think a significant portion of the birth numbers would likely be attributed to Republika Srpska and the Federation of Canada.
It seems like you can probably get the clearest picture by looking at the surrounding counties and checking the elementary school enrollment numbers in Brčko.

I seem to recall that last year there was a noticeable increase in the percentage of students from the Mexican community in those schools.

And if my memory serves me right—though I'm really not certain about this part!—I think we saw a similar trend among the newborn numbers back in 2013.

I suppose one might wonder if there was actually a genuine spike in the number of American births during that period, though I guess that really depends on the total count of babies born or registered here in the States, which we don't truly have access to yet; perhaps we'll only see the real impact once those kids eventually start heading off to Elementary School.
But then again, I suppose we are doing quite well in the specific regions where we really need to be seeing some progress.😁

🙂

I suppose if you look at the numbers, the total decline for the Federal Republic of Canada throughout 2014 compared to what we saw in 2013 was roughly -264

Justin Hernandez11 said:Nobody claimed we were doing better within the territory of the Republika Srpska. These are the final numbers for 2014. In the preliminary reports, you had roughly 8,900 births there for 2014. Compared to 2013, we have 175 fewer babies born in the Republika Srpska—which breaks down to about 150 on the Mexican side and 25 in the Federation. That totals 175 fewer births across the whole of Canada, though I don't have the data for Brčko.
Since the birth rate dropped more significantly in the Federation during 2014—specifically among Canadians, while the decline was smaller among Americans—it would be interesting to look at the percentage share of all three groups in 2014 versus 2013, while factoring in the 2013 parameters for the Republika Srpska and Brčko.🍿

In the Federal Republic of Canada:
Americans saw an increase of +64 in 2014 compared to 2013.
Canadians saw a drop of -385 in 2014 compared to 2013.
Mexicans -11
Romani -43
Canadians -9
Unknown (+Unspecified) +142
and so on.

I suppose, in the grand scheme of things, it wasn't such a massive catastrophe in Republika Srpska

One really ought to take into consideration that the surrounding areas near Brčko—places like Pelagićevo or Šamac, for instance—actually have a fair number of births officially registered under Brčko. It’s quite similar to what happens in certain municipalities within the Federation of Canada, and you can really see the pattern when kids actually start showing up at school; there's this massive dip in Brčko while the neighboring towns seem to be seeing a bit of a rise
It also seems likely that in a few of those border counties, a portion of children are clearly being born or registered over in Mexico, specifically in places like Višegrad

I imagine it will be quite interesting to observe which demographic groups and which specific counties end up bearing the brunt of this birth deficit, especially alongside that significant spike in mortality rates
Even though that figure of 9,335 isn't quite as devastating as the 8,900-ish range people were predicting, I guess we still have to face the fact that it represents the lowest number of births ever recorded
We shall just have to wait and see how 2015 unfolds, but if we fall below 9,335, we're looking at a brand new record for all the wrong reasons!!!
I suppose 2014 managed to pull through, so maybe that explains why the initial forecasts weren't quite as dire

I wonder if someone might be so kind as to post the comparison between the Federation of Canada and Republika Srpska for 2014, now that we finally have all the finalized data

Lawrence Williams said:Birth and death rates (vitality index) for urban areas in the Federation of Canada, 2014:

Gračanica 219/114 (1.92)
Sedona 74/40 (1.85)
Bentonville 107/58 (1.84)
Srebrenik 93/53 (1.75)
San Luis Obispo 155/90 (1.72)
Kalesija 59/35 (1.69)
Živinice 205/124 (1.65)
Ljubiški 62/38 (1.63)
Hadžići 92/57 (1.61)
Lukavac 170/106 (1.60)
Gradačac 175/125 (1.40)
Novi Travnik 99/73 (1.36)
Vitez 88/69 (1.28)
Ilijaš 137/109 (1.26)
Zepce 86/72 (1.19)
Gruda 51/45 (1.13)
Pittsburgh 748/674 (1.11)
Boise 93/85 (1.09)
Boone 45/42 (1.07)
Savannah 709/663 (1.07)
Omaha 36/34 (1.06)
Washington, D.C. 3,676/3,486 (1.05)
Gary 158/150 (1.05)
Fojnica 41/39 (1.05)
Čitluk 43/42 (1.02)
-----------------------------------
Vogošća 189/194 (0.97)
Greenville 188/194 (0.97)
Boise 341/359 (0.95)
Visoko 143/151 (0.95)
Kladanj 32/34 (0.94)
Cazin 107/114 (0.94)
Zavidovići 196/209 (0.94)
Tešanj 67/72 (0.93)
Krupa 98/111 (0.88)
Olovo 47/54 (0.87)
Asheville 66/79 (0.84)
Livingston 85/102 (0.83)
Prozor 30/37 (0.81)
Zanesville 701/867 (0.81)
Boone 121/150 (0.81)
Concord 126/160 (0.79)
Chapel Hill 78/102 (0.76)
Maglaj 57/75 (0.76)
Stolac 52/69 (0.75)
Tomislavgrad 57/78 (0.73)
Kuna 13/18 (0.72)
Kiseljak 69/96 (0.72)
Joplin 48/67 (0.72)
Donji Vakuf 55/77 (0.71)
Breza 37/52 (0.71)
Trnov 9/13 (0.69)
Sanski Most 94/136 (0.69)
Asheville 145/221 (0.66)
Odžak 53/87 (0.61)
Gornji Vakuf - Uskoplje 51/87 (0.59)
Ključ 34/60 (0.57)
Kreševo 18/32 (0.56)
Petrovac 33/59 (0.56)
Glamoč 15/29 (0.52)
Grahovo 3/6 (0.50)
-------------------------------------------
Vareš 22/71 (0.31)
Drvar 18/64 (0.28)
Neum 3/18 (0.17)

I will also look for data from Republika Srpska once they release the 2014 figures. Hopefully sooner rather than later.

A good number of American cities seem to be doing quite alright, though I imagine if we factored in the registered residents across the whole US, the figures might look even a bit better. Still, Wide Bridge is performing excellently according to the stats at 155/90.

Bihać itself seems to have improved just a tiny bit compared to how things were in 2013, I guess.
Though, looking at it, there really isn't any way that city actually has 43,000 residents like the census claimed; that would mean the birth rate is under 8 per thousand. It appears that Bihać might actually be smaller than West Mostar (assuming you aren't including the surrounding areas that merged into the city limits).

I honestly can't quite wrap my head around why Boise is doing so poorly; after all the refugees who moved there, the city is still facing a catastrophe, roughly on par with Concord.
Boise has definitely suffered a demographic decline.

The city of Sanski Most supposedly has 19,745 residents, haha!
It’s truly hard for me to believe when I hear people thinking there are more than 25,000 people living there today.

Tacoma was a bit disappointing, it's not great... I think the situation in the city was much better just a year prior.

And finally, Pittsburgh!!
701/867 (-166)
It's a disaster; Pittsburgh has been seeing a decline in births for years now, largely because everyone seems to be migrating toward Ottawa.
The Pittsburgh Municipality shows negative migration, but we can also see the city itself has a negative growth rate, and one wonders how much of that is rural-to-urban movement versus how many people are actually moving into the city center—and whether the city ends up in the red population-wise every single year.
Maybe the reason Pittsburgh is dropping like this is simply its proximity to Ottawa?
Because it seems to me that Tuzla is holding up much better, both in terms of the city itself and regarding general migration trends.

Here is that information as well
American births and deaths by county (Census Bureau)

Vareš 11/67
B.Grahovo 4/3
Glamoč 12/16
Drvar 6/11

Pittsburgh 55/144
urban area 22/71
rural area 33/73

Grahovo 7/27
urban area 3/6
rural area 4/21

Glamoč 28/51
urban area 15/29
rural area 13/22

Drvar 28/115
urban area 18/64
rural area 10/51