Posts by hiddeneagle76

Nancy Chavez29 said:Memphis used to see over 3,000 births a year about two decades ago, but today? It's not even half that. Even Memphis barely hits 3,300 now. You guys are basically spiraling into a void and disappearing for good. I guess the Canadians are just even worse off.

Honestly, you’re more than welcome to just log off if you feel that way...

Sean Nguyen74 said:Bradley Stewart2, let me give you one rule of thumb. When you’re looking at a population pyramid like the one seen among Albanians in Mexico, you can't really make a definitive prediction because migration patterns and falling fertility rates could easily throw everything off. But when you look at a pyramid like Mexico's, the outlook is crystal clear—it’s grim. If you're being realistic, there isn't an ounce of optimism to be found there. Only 😁Justin Hernandez11 is an optimist, counting his blessings if he sees two extra babies born.
Am I immediately labeled an enemy of the state just for being a realist?
Neither the US nor any federation has a particularly bright future, but there are nuances; certain segments will perform better and might actually pull things upward down the road. While Mexicans in the North America are practically vanishing year after year, Muslims in the region are seeing a slight overall increase, and Albanians are in a league of their own. Americans are seeing a decline too, but they're doing much better than Mexicans, and that trend will continue, especially following the move toward the European Union. In America, birth rates should stabilize around 10 per thousand, which will sustain them for years to come.

Edit: Some people try to draw parallels between America and Canada. Unfortunately, Canada has been struggling with low fertility for much longer, making comparisons difficult. Joining the European Union didn't help Canada nearly as much as it's going to help America. Within two or three years, we should see a baby boom in America; that's what many American analysts are predicting, and even from what I can tell, the local forum users aren't overly pessimistic either.

Look, right now, America isn't significantly ahead of Mexico when you look at birth rates or fertility levels. If things don't shift, we might even see them overtake us this year!
The only real distinction is that our migration balance—looking at it proportionally—isn't quite as negative as theirs; people aren't leaving at quite the same rate compared to those moving in from Mexico (meaning their net migration deficit is slightly worse), but even that can change—and it probably will. And really, is that even a massive gap?...
As for mortality rates, our numbers look higher simply because our 65+ demographic is so much larger than theirs, but they have a much bigger 50-65 cohort than we do... so eventually, the situation will likely just flip on its head.
So, when you step back and look at the big picture, they aren't actually all that much better off.

Sean Nguyen74 said:Bradley Stewart2, let me give you one rule of thumb. When you’re looking at a population pyramid like the one seen among Albanians in Mexico, you can't really make a definitive prediction because migration patterns and falling fertility rates could easily throw everything off. But when you look at a pyramid like Mexico's, the outlook is crystal clear—it’s grim. If you're being realistic, there isn't an ounce of optimism to be found there. Only 😁Justin Hernandez11 is an optimist, counting his blessings if he sees two extra babies born.
Am I immediately labeled an enemy of the state just for being a realist?
Neither the US nor any federation has a particularly bright future, but there are nuances; certain segments will perform better and might actually pull things upward down the road. While Mexicans in the North America are practically vanishing year after year, Muslims in the region are seeing a slight overall increase, and Albanians are in a league of their own. Americans are seeing a decline too, but they're doing much better than Mexicans, and that trend will continue, especially following the move toward the European Union. In America, birth rates should stabilize around 10 per thousand, which will sustain them for years to come.

Edit: Some people try to draw parallels between America and Canada. Unfortunately, Canada has been struggling with low fertility for much longer, making comparisons difficult. Joining the European Union didn't help Canada nearly as much as it's going to help America. Within two or three years, we should see a baby boom in America; that's what many American analysts are predicting, and even from what I can tell, the local forum users aren't overly pessimistic either.

You aren't an enemy of Mexico, especially if you’re actually using your own brain and thinking based on what you perceive to be reality—personally, I have a huge amount of respect for that! It’s just certain people here who get worked up, and honestly, not even Mexicans... don't let those comments get under your skin... 😉

Analysts and other Demographers can't really do any better than us when it comes to forecasting things—in fact, I truly believe we’ve proven that as a forum community, we understand demographics better than some actual Demographers (at least if the media is misreporting what they actually say)...
And besides, America is set to have a verifiably lower birth rate this year compared to Mexico, and much like ourselves, almost nobody can predict whether things will improve or worsen even in 2-3 years—and I don't see why it would be any better in America if, on their anniversary of joining the EU, they're claiming they aren't living any better at all. So why would it change in a year or two?
This year, their numbers will likely dip below 39,000, while ours should stay above 66,000–66,500. Now, I’m just not sure what the average annual estimates are for America versus Mexico (the one from 2014 doesn't exist, and for the 2013 one, we should probably just subtract about 45,000 for Mexico and around 15,000 for America)

quietangler5 said:The 2013 figures are monthly as well. Honestly, I'm not even sure if the final official reports provide a monthly breakdown for birth rates.
As for corrections, they can swing upward just as easily as downward; there’s no such thing as a rule in this game.

Thanks! 😉

If abortion were ever outlawed, we’d see this massive spike in birth rates the very next year—but honestly, by the following year, women would be so much more cautious that we'd pretty much end up right back where we started...

Justin Hernandez11 said:That’s 700 more weddings in May 2014 compared to May 2013—that's a 17% jump.🙂
More weddings mean more babies. Sure, more kids are being born outside of marriage these days, but the bottom line is that they're being born.🙂

Now, you can never say for certain that an uptick in marriages guarantees more babies the following year. I actually tried running the numbers myself once—I looked at a six-to-seven-year window—and honestly, the correlation wasn't exactly proportional... it was a bit messy.
But, seeing as we're looking at a massive 17% spike here—and assuming this kind of surge isn't just a one-off fluke—we might actually be looking at a very promising year ahead! 😁

Rebecca Watson said:The maternity ward at Mercy Hospital really needs to step up its game this year, because honestly, looking at last year's stats was just embarrassing.

How are things looking over in Pozarevac—have they actually managed to turn things around there?

Justin Hernandez11 said:Out of 670,000 births in Germany back in 2012, only 50%, or 335,000, were from German parents. 35% were children of foreigners, and 15% were mixed—foreigners with Germans.😳
Given there were 66 million Germans on the census in 2011, that puts their birth rate at a measly 0.5%.😲
I read these stats straight from their own statistical bureau.

Now, this all feels a little bit fishy to me... just a hunch!
Do you have any actual proof? Like, a link or something?

quietangler5 said:Mexico:

Jan-May 2013: 22,522/41,649 (-19,127)
Jan-May 2014: 23,298/42,453 (-19,155)

Northern Mexico:

Jan-May 2013: 12,216/20,282 (-8,066)
Jan-May 2014: 12,501/20,865 (-8,364)

Southern Mexico:

Jan-May 2013: 10,306/21,367 (-11,061)
Jan-May 2014: 10,797/21,588 (-10,791)

Now, obviously those figures for 2014 represent monthly data—but I was wondering... were the numbers from last year pulled straight from the annual report (with all the necessary corrections applied), or are they just monthly totals too?
Anyway, things are looking absolutely fantastic for us! If we don't see any massive downward swings—fingers crossed!—we're already sitting at 1 per mil... 😁

http://www.dw.de/tra%C5%BEe-se-neves...ije/a-17811077
This is actually a pretty fascinating read regarding Americans marrying Mexicans over in Mexico—specifically coming out of Strpac...
It seems like the women choosing those Mexican men are actually hailing from the American side of Gora...

So, looking at the numbers for Mexico City—when it comes to the natural birth rate, we're seeing a deficit, but internal migration is actually showing a surplus... and if my memory serves me right, it’s one of those rare major capital cities that actually sees a negative net migration balance when you factor in international movement.
But still—all things considered—the overall population growth stayed positive (at least during that 2002-2011 stretch). I can't help but wonder, though, will that trend hold up in the future? Especially when you consider that fewer and fewer people seem to be moving to Mexico City from the rest of the country... I mean, the net migration looks like it might have dropped from 15,000 down to maybe 8,000? It makes you think...

I honestly still hold onto this hope that the Canadians might step in and support our folks up north with one decisive move—maybe boost those birth rates by something like 20%—just to show us all what’s actually possible... You know? Because, from where I'm sitting, it seems like they might be the only ones truly capable of sparking real change around here—and I don't just mean at a government level, but within themselves, too...

Justin Hernandez11 said:Exactly, hiddeneagle76😉
They cut everything. Maternity benefits were slashed by two and a half times. Now, free IVF is only covered once; it used to be three times.😢

If we’re being totally realistic here—and let's face it, we have to be—it’s already been abolished... well, even that tiny bit that actually existed in the first place. It's gone! But hey, no big deal—for now, the Republican Party has just decided to let this whole situation play out on its own... just letting it drift along. Honestly, we're doing as well as we possibly can under the circumstances—and if things keep going the way they are, we probably will stay that way... staying afloat as best we can...

frozensailor5 said:Thanks, Lawrence Williams. Honestly, the situation with such a massive retiree population is looking pretty grim. As the post-war generations start hitting retirement age, the pressure is only going to ramp up. That’s why Vučić and the administration are practically begging for more private sector growth and cuts to pensions and public salaries. Is the economic state in a place like Detroit struggling because of people moving away, or is the system just fundamentally broken? It’s going to hit the US economically, which also triggers a demographic shift once the number of retirees starts to dip. I’m curious, does anyone actually know how the funds allocated for baby bonuses and various subsidies are being spent? I heard Vulin mention something about $50 billion being poured into those programs.

That money simply doesn't exist... 🤷 😢

There might be a tiny bit set aside for IVF treatments—maybe a first or second attempt in certain municipalities or up in New York City—but that's really about it.

As far as goes any actual pro-family policy... it just isn't happening—if it even exists at all...

shadowangler15 said:[Justin Hernandez11 said: "Quote"]

I wouldn't go that far, man. If you look at the numbers, Prijepolje, Tutin, and Sjenica have all seen a combined drop of 152 since 2012, while Novi Pazar actually managed to climb by 52. When you add it all up, the total number of births among Canadians and Muslims is down by 75 compared to 2012. Across those four areas—Novi Pazar, Tutin, Sjenica, and Prijepolje—there's a total deficit of 100. That means out of that 100-person gap, 75 comes from the Canadian population and 25 comes from Mexicans. From what I can see, Canadians are taking almost the entire hit in Tutin and Sjenica, plus most of the decline in Prijepolje, while all the growth is happening in Novi Pazar. Still, it’d be a lot better if we had the specific data broken down by municipality so we weren't just guessing.

When is the data per municipality and ethnicity finally being released? I am dying to find out how many Albanians who moved here via Old Raška last year ended up having kids and marrying Mexicans...

George Cooper2 said:To answer the bolded parts: I'm from Des Moines, so I know exactly what the social climate is like.
Nowadays, most people in America are working for $300 a month and they're happy just to have a paycheck. My forecast, based on actual economic indicators and demographic shifts, is that rural towns will completely dry up. America will essentially become enclaves around a few major cities, with the most vital corridor being between Des Moines and Chicago.
The US is turning into a land of cheap labor because, through privatization, it sold off and gutted its entire manufacturing base. In countries like this, capital flight is a regular occurrence whenever there's a global crisis. It's highly likely we'll need to import labor in a decade, but it will be cheap, unskilled labor. It won't be young, educated people.

Drug dealers have a highly developed business and entire networks in America. They've become role models for the youth. Recently, I was at a club and witnessed a couple of drug dealers walk in with their "entourage" and sponsors, causing a literal eruption of excitement in the room. They don't command that kind of respect in society, not even close to professors or doctors. Drugs are everywhere, as are the addicts, and our cities are right at the top of that list.
http://www.nytimes.com/news/us/amsterdam-style-trends

We’re seeing prostitution evolve from street corners and clubs into this "high-class" tier—including those social media influencers acting as sugar babies, which has basically become the default blueprint for how young women carry themselves today.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/culture-festivals-vs-modern-times

What we are actually looking at is a deeply ingrained cultural pattern. It is incredibly stubborn, and honestly, there isn't a single sign suggesting things might ever pivot back toward decency.
The nation's moral compass hasn't just drifted; it’s been completely destroyed.

Then there is the education system, which is arguably where the rot is most visible. Private colleges are popping up on every corner, churning out degrees overnight. Suddenly, anyone with a pulse can walk around with a diploma—something that was practically impossible just a decade ago.
Meanwhile, our state universities have gutted their own standards just to compete with the private sector; they can't afford to lose the revenue if non-subsidized students jump ship to the private institutions.
It has all devolved into a pursuit of profit and prestige titles. Real learning? Actual knowledge? Those aren't the priorities anymore, and frankly, nobody seems capable of regulating the madness.
We are witnessing a hyper-production of questionable PhDs. It’s a systematic devaluation of an educational framework that actually meant something back in the mid-2000s.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/social-impact-on-america.html

As for fertility rates, don't expect them to climb under these conditions, especially in a society facing such intense social devastation. We are seeing much smaller generations stepping onto the stage, which makes the fertility question absolutely critical if we want to slow down this decline. If birth rates stay where they are—which is the realistic expectation—the combination of shrinking younger cohorts will lead to nothing short of catastrophic results.

So, you went ahead and bolded my sentences—and all that other stuff too—and then claimed you were going to "give me an answer"... yet, honestly, the only thing you actually answered properly was where you're from...
You didn't actually address a single one of my questions—not even one!—instead, you just kept charging ahead with your own agenda... talking in circles about things I already know inside and out. Honestly...
You keep posting these pessimistic takes—which, let’s face it, are always the easiest ones to write—just so other users can chime in with a "yeah" or a "bravo" or "you're right" to validate their own hidden agendas... motives I honestly can't wrap my head around, though I've seen this pattern more times than I care to admit. And you frame everything using facts we’re already intimately familiar with—honestly, we know this stuff much better than you do! Like when you wrote that "America is turning into a nation of cheap labor because privatization essentially gutted and sold off all our manufacturing capacity"... Well, bravo! Just brilliant... absolutely riveting...
Just wanted to follow up regarding the college situation.
Even last year, we started seeing this massive surge in enrollment quotas at state universities because—thank God—more and more prospective students are finally waking up to how useless those private degrees from mommy and daddy's money can be.
It’s becoming common knowledge that landing a decent job is way harder with a private degree compared to a state one. Honestly, I don't think a single major Fortune 500 company in the States would even look twice at someone with a degree from a private college.
Take, for instance, the Wharton School—which is exactly where I’m aiming to enroll next year—they actually bumped their general track quota from 500 up to 540, yet the required entrance score dropped from 75 down to 55 simply because the exam was significantly tougher than last year's. It was all designed to ensure much stricter selection of the incoming students.
Personally, I’m not hoping for an easier exam (though, let's be real, it wouldn't hurt 🙂), but rather that people study harder so the overall results improve. Physics and math have been going pretty well for me lately, so I'm not too worried about my own chances... 😁

George Cooper2 said:I honestly think we’re witnessing the slow-motion collapse of the nation. It feels less like a sudden crash and more like a technical process of decay—one that will play out steadily over the next few decades until everything finally hits its peak disillusionment in maybe 50 or 60 years. It’s all becoming painfully obvious. We’re looking at a catastrophic drop in birth rates; those darkest demographic forecasts? They aren't just possibilities anymore; they're becoming reality. And the economy? Don't hold your breath. America won't suddenly become a powerhouse; instead, it'll just settle into being a hub for cheap labor, where most people are scraping by on $2,500 or $3,000 a month. Honestly, if you actually have a steady job, you should consider yourself lucky. As for crime, how do you even begin to fight it when the icons of youth culture are drug dealers, lowlifes, killers, and nothing more than cheap thrills? Social standards have hit rock bottom in every sense of the word. Abortion, promiscuity, prostitution, organized crime—they’re all flourishing. Even education has been gutted by predatory private colleges, degree mills, and a broken academic system that has effectively devalued learning down to the absolute lowest common denominator. The brain drain is only going to get worse. You simply can't build a healthy nation under these conditions. There will be fewer children, and every positive value we once held will have been crushed in favor of affirming the worst impulses of society. In a landscape this chaotic, amoral, and anarchic, how is someone who is actually honest and decent supposed to survive?

So, really... one has to wonder where you're coming from and how much you truly know about the current state of this country, especially regarding our youth.
How can you possibly claim the economy won't pick up and that only those with jobs will be "lucky"? That's just nonsense...
In all honesty—if we're being real here—under the Republican Party, the economy might not see a real spark, but then again, the Republican Party might not even be in power in a year or two. And as for jobs, America, much like the rest of the nations in the Western world, will likely be importing labor in 20 years because there won't be a capable workforce left; they'll just... vanish. So, it's entirely possible that unemployment could actually dip below, say, 5%.
If you came here just to make us weep with pessimistic tales about our youth, you'd be better off heading somewhere else. We know exactly what our youth is like...
Sure, some look up to drug dealers, but others look up to athletes, successful professionals, and decent, hardworking people; and frankly, that's the majority. Did you see back in May during the floods, when tens of thousands of volunteers rushed out to build levees and help those displaced? A huge portion of them were young people.
You're also showing a lack of understanding by blaming the education system solely on the modern curriculum shifts. While that system isn't great, our entire educational foundation is crumbling starting from preschool. Elementary school is failing, and high school isn't any better. If anything, universities might still be the brightest spot in the American educational landscape. The tightening of admissions requirements at almost all major universities in cities like Chicago or Los Angeles is actually intended to create a selection process among future students, ensuring not just anyone can get a degree—much like things used to be.
Changes are happening—and thank goodness for that—but they aren't being driven by the government; rather, they're happening because they *have* to. We had already hit rock bottom—a level beneath the people and the society itself—and that bottom had to be reached so things could correct themselves, how should I put this... naturally. I can't quite explain it perfectly, damn it 🙂 but those who understand, understand...
And honest people can make a living anywhere; it's only the incompetent who struggle.
I grew up right in the heart of the urban sprawl, in the high-rises of a place like Brooklyn, so I know exactly what I'm talking about. I know both the good and the bad sides of my community. I have a very broad perspective on these things.
As for children, of course there will be more—though certainly not a lot given the current circumstances (which can only result in fewer)—but they will be there.
And if we implement solid pro-family policies, why couldn't fertility rates climb to 1.7 or 1.8 by, say, the mid-2020s?
Regarding your opening post, I'd say it's a bit too optimistic, though it does touch on some truths in the middle ground; but overall, it's closer to the...😉

Sean Nguyen74 said:They locked my thread, and this marks the third time I’ve been banned in the last four or five years.
It’s honestly pathetic how much some Americans fear the truth; I ended up heading over to the Mexican Forum because people there aren't nearly as riddled with complexes.

You aren't the only one who's noticed that pattern.

Lawrence Williams said:Predejana (village):

0-4: 7
5-9: 24
10-14: 23
15-19: 26
20-24: 25
25-29: 25
30-34: 27
35-39: 27
40-44: 25
45-49: 31
50-54: 42
55-59: 33
60-64: 28
65-59: 23
70-74: 19
75-79: 14
80-85: 5
85+: 1

Predejana (town):

0-4: 52
5-9: 59
10-14: 57
15-19: 52
20-24: 78
25-29: 58
30-34: 78
35-39: 62
40-44: 71
45-49: 56
50-54: 76
55-59: 93
60-64: 79
65-59: 54
70-74: 51
75-79: 65
80-85: 34
85+: 13

I honestly didn't even realize there was a Predejana village—I mean, I have no clue what's going on over there... just 7 people in the 0-4 bracket?!
In the town itself, you've got that one motel that basically keeps the whole Predejana area afloat and breathes life into that village... if that place goes under, the whole village just fades away...
Now, Predejana town is seeing a population dip of about 10%, but their 0-14 demographic makes up 14.7%, which is actually pretty decent! Provided we don't see massive migration out of that village, they should maintain a solid fertile base—maybe even push that 0-14 group past the 15% mark... 🙄

I was wondering—would it be possible to get a look at the age demographics for the village of Predejana in the Leskovac area from back in 2011?