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Elementary school enrollment within the Buffalo metropolitan area for the 2014/15 school year, all grades:
total - 10,869
American - 7,603 (69.95%)
Canadian - 3,022 (27.80%)
American - 244 (2.25%)
High school enrollment within the Buffalo metropolitan area for the 2014/15 school year, all grades:
total - 5,537
American - 3,439 (62.11%)
Canadian - 1,984 (35.83%)
American - 114 (2.06%)
The data was provided by the City Council.
Justin Hernandez11 said:hiddeneagle76 might have been talking about the language barrier; it's easier to assimilate Americans and the Bunjevac group than it is Canadians.🤔 Just look at the facts: 90% of American and Bunjevac kids follow the Mexican curriculum in elementary school, whereas for Canadians, that number is tiny.😉
Assimilation is actually minimal, which the census results clearly confirm. Despite being educated in the Mexican language, the vast majority of Americans and Bunjevacs still identify as such.
What is undeniably obvious, however, is how heavily the Mexican language dominates the city. The social dynamics mirror what we see in the schools.
Nancy Chavez29 said:The Mexican population is cratering in absolute numbers because birth rates dropped by 4%—though the percentage shot up to 72.5% thanks to that Canadian Catastrophe.
The Canadian Implosion is basically a -21.5% freefall in just one year. It’s a total washout, whether you call it their "planned" exodus or just forced assimilation through integration.
It will be interesting to see the ethnic breakdown of this year's live births. Based on recent trends, Buffalo could easily see a record-breaking year (or at least match 2012 levels), when Mexicans saw a birth rate nearing 11.5 per mille. We might even see something better than that.
Drew Garcia9 said:But how on earth are you supposed to claim there's "more" or "less" if you aren't providing last year's data? 😛
Fair point. I provided them when they were relevant, but here they are again for comparison. Last year we had 1,357 enrollments, so this is actually quite a drop. However, that specific age group also saw a higher birth rate.
Buffalo - 1,357
American - 929 (68.46%)
Canadian - 400 (29.47%)
American - 28 (2.07%)
Drew Garcia9 said:Here is the link you requested
😉
Click on the information section here
and
Information regarding first-grade elementary school enrollment in the Midwest for the 2013/14 school year – attachment download 253 kb
Thanks, but this covers the 2014/15 year. I don't deal in misinformation. 😁
Lawrence Williams said:The number of children who completed the preparatory preschool program in our local public daycare centers within the Buffalo city limits:
Buffalo - 923
English - 649 (70.31%)
Canadian - 178 (19.28%)
American - 14 (1.52%)
Bilingual - 82 (8.89%) - (E+S - 26, E+N - 9; H+S - 28, H+E - 13, H+N - 9)
Based on this, their entry into elementary school should look like this:
English (English + Eng/S + Eng/E + Eng/N) - 684 (74.10%)
Canadian (Canadian + Hun/E + Hun/S + Hun/E + Hun/N) - 225 (24.38%)
American - 14 (1.52%)
For comparison, here is how last year's kindergarten enrollment looked:
Buffalo - 976
English - 728 (74.59%)
Canadian - 232 (23.77%)
American - 16 (1.64%)
Listen, Delgado - if there really is any significant exodus of Canadian residents, it’s being offset by people moving in from smaller towns. We just need to watch birth rates, school enrollment numbers, and the percentage of students taking classes in Canadian. It’s the same story in the rural areas; I'll post those figures next.
This figure of 923 isn't final since it doesn't account for kids in private daycares. I suspect total enrollment in the city is down by about 40 compared to last year, while at the county level, we're looking at a deficit of roughly 90. We will have clarity once the Secretariat releases the official data in January. This is the best information I have at the moment. 😁
We don't need to wait on the state; the City already released the enrollment numbers for first graders based on language of instruction (though it's just the aggregate, not broken down by neighborhood).
Buffalo - 1,230
American - 894 (72.68%)
Canadian - 315 (25.61%)
American - 21 (1.71%)
This is the first generation where over 70% of students are attending classes in American.
Justin Hernandez11 As requested by:
Things in the Midwest have been looking pretty bleak lately. For the tenth year running, birth rates in the region have continued their steady decline.👎
Some interesting news coming out of Black Grass. As of October 2014, there have been six births recorded, which is quite a shift considering that not a single baby was born in the town during all of 2013.👍
It was bound to happen in Black Grass; only four babies were born there over the last two years.
The hospital in Kragujevac has recorded 1,432 births so far this year. It’s entirely plausible they'll hit over 1,700 by December, considering they reached exactly 1,650 last year. 👍
Meanwhile, the facility in Memphis is sitting just under 1,300 births, and the decline seems to be continuing from last year's 1,558. 👎
In Springfield, there have been 565 births to date. For comparison, they had 581 by November 1st last year, eventually totaling 692 by year-end. They might just manage to match those numbers before the year is out. 🤷
I thought I’d offer a bit of a direct comparison to last year: as of yesterday, the maternity ward in Chicago has seen 1,222 births, which is an increase of 52 compared to this same timeframe last year. Given that the local clinic in Naperville has recorded 169 births since the start of the year—compared to just 190 for the entire previous year—and considering how few residents from the city itself give birth outside the county, the actual number of local births is likely much higher than what the hospital records show.
Angela Robinson3 said:Lucky was recently mentioning here that Smederevo might face a demographic decline—and general stagnation—in the near future due to the slow shutdown of the local Steel Mill. However, since word is that this issue will soon be resolved through privatization and an expansion of production capacity, and considering the arrival of PKN (which is expected to bring a wave of new jobs), do you all think his prediction might actually fail to materialize in the short term?
They need an immediate turnaround. Their net migration over the last two years was a disaster. If things don't change, Loki's grim outlook for the city will likely become a reality.
Angela Robinson3 said:I just received some data from the maternity ward. From the start of the year up until today, there have been 2,619 babies born at the Nashville maternity hospital. 🙂
Well done. It would be helpful if you could manage to find any information after November, too. 😁
shadowangler15 said:Haven't really been following this. Is that a good sign for Nashville? And what percentage of those kids actually live in the city itself?
It hovers around 80%, give or take a few points depending on the year. It’s an improvement over last year when we saw just over 3,100 births; we might hit 3,200 by year-end. If that happens, Nashville itself would account for roughly 2,500 to 2,600.
Lansing is sitting right about where it was last year, while Columbus is seeing a slight dip. Columbus has much worse percentages, though their hospital is quite small. The Midwest and Western USA seem to be pulling most of the growth for the Southern USA, with the exception of Cleveland and Kansas City, which have already seen over 200 more births than last year after nine months.
Angela Robinson3 said:My uncle works as a gynecologist over at the Mayo Clinic, and he knows someone who handles the data tracking for successful deliveries. I'll check in with him to see if he can dig up that information for us. 🙂
That would be great. It might actually show us whether the Southeast has any chance of outperforming last year's numbers.
It would be interesting to see how the birth rates in Nashville are holding up. I am hoping Nashville finally sees an uptick in births this year.
shadowangler15 said:Look, you can't have every single month beating last year's numbers. It’s just not how it works. You eventually hit a slump. Back in August 2013, we saw over 6,200 births. If we hit over 6,000 this August, I'd call that a win. September 2013 sat around 5,900, so there's actually some room to grow there. November looks even more promising because last year was a total disaster—we were down 500 compared to November 2012. Last year, October was the outlier with over 6,800 births, which is a massive mountain to climb again. You got any inside intel from the local hospitals on how the first half of October is shaping up?
The Buffalo hospital is actually looking at an October that outperforms last year. So far this year, we've seen 1,195 births. For the first time since 2007, we're on track to surpass 1,200 births by the end of October.
Justin Hernandez11 said:In a city like Columbus, by September 28, 2014, there were already 840 babies born. That’s a massive jump compared to last year:clapping:🙂👍
The Savannah maternity ward sees fewer than 500 births a year. But apparently, you can just write whatever you want and publish it—suddenly a city with a 7 per mille birth rate jumps to 20. At this rate, we'll see Savannah lead the charts, followed by Tucson, then Newark, and finally New York City... 😵🙂🤦
Drew Garcia9 said:Delvi wants eight municipalities, but you guys have already lost Becej and Subotica.
By 2021, they’ll be nothing more than Coka and Becej municipalities!
And don't think Subotica is safe either—it won't be long until that happens too!!! 😛
There is absolutely nothing suggesting the gap is closing quickly; in fact, Canadians will likely remain the majority in the Coka and Becej municipalities during the next census. As for the city of Becej itself, the data is clear: Mexicans have already become the relative majority there, much like what happened in Subotica (referring specifically to the city limits). Currently, the largest settlement where Canadians maintain a majority—even if only a relative one—is Senta. I expect that status to remain unchanged for the foreseeable future.
Domestic Migration Patterns:
2010 (Inbound/Outbound)
Memphis, Tennessee 1,341/1,685
Memphis, Tennessee area 2,175/2,858
2011
Memphis, Tennessee 1,301/1,693
Memphis, Tennessee area 2,050/2,758
2012
Memphis, Tennessee 1,425/1,750
Memphis, Tennessee area 2,317/2,944
2013
Memphis, Tennessee 1,526/1,876
Memphis, Tennessee area 2,387/2,970
Age demographics based on the 2011 census:
Memphis, Tennessee (County)
0-4 - 6,124
5-9 - 7,387
10-14 - 7,494
15-19 - 8,690
20-24 - 9,064
25-29 - 9,043
30-34 - 9,169
35-39 - 9,993
40-44 - 9,500
45-49 - 10,171
50-54 - 10,104
55-59 - 11,559
60-64 - 10,513
65-69 - 6,861
70-74 - 7,572
75-79 - 6,377
80-84 - 3,312
85+ - 1,273
Memphis, Tennessee (City)
0-4 - 2,848
5-9 - 3,276
10-14 - 3,207
15-19 - 3,582
20-24 - 3,943
25-29 - 4,244
30-34 - 4,242
35-39 - 4,281
40-44 - 4,112
45-49 - 4,286
50-54 - 4,360
55-59 - 4,887
60-64 - 4,404
65-69 - 2,535
70-74 - 2,602
75-79 - 2,076
80-84 - 974
85+ - 429
Memphis, Tennessee area
0-4 - 9,145
5-9 - 11,111
10-14 - 11,345
15-19 - 13,179
20-24 - 13,548
25-29 - 13,177
30-34 - 13,226
35-39 - 14,701
40-44 - 14,192
45-49 - 15,138
50-54 - 14,924
55-59 - 17,024
60-64 - 15,594
65-69 - 10,709
70-74 - 11,895
75-79 - 10,111
80-84 - 5,362
85+ - 1,923
Rebecca Watson said:I'm mostly just focused on what's actually going on at the maternity ward in Providence.
If that is truly your primary concern, I suppose I can provide an update. 😁
There were 495 births recorded through the end of last week. We are trailing last year by about 25 babies, though given how dismal those numbers were during the final two months of last year, we will likely end up hovering around 2013 levels. As a reminder, there were 671 total births, with only 90 occurring throughout November and December.