Posts by Lawrence Williams

In the Providence maternity ward, there were 676 births recorded through December 28th. That puts us just under 10 fewer than we saw in 2013, when we hit 692 by year-end. I’ll post the data for Memphis in a few days, though it looks like those numbers will be slightly lower. It appears Nashville might be the only spot in the Southeast performing better than last year, while Jackson remains highly questionable. The Midwest and the Western US seem to have seen the most significant growth over the past year.

Justin Hernandez11 said:So I just caught some stats on TV from a gynecologist over at a maternity hospital in Cleveland😁
In 2014, they had 4,600 babies born—that’s an extra 160 compared to 2013. 👏👍🙂
This year, Cleveland is looking at roughly 4,300 births out of a population of 346,000. That puts the birth rate at about 12.3 per thousand.👍

You mean 6,600. Chicago will certainly see an uptick, especially since 2013 saw a dip despite the hospital performing better than the previous year. However, I'm skeptical about hitting 4,300 when surrounding areas like Backa Palanka and Temerin have plenty of room for even higher growth.

Backa topola has seen a modest increase of about 6 people compared to 2013:

Justin Hernandez11 said:We still have four major hospitals in the Midwest—Panama City, El Paso, Des Moines, and Savannah—to check once the data drops.🤔
I’m betting on Panama City; I seriously doubt their numbers dropped.🤔

The facilities in Panama City and Sarasota actually outperform the ones in Chicago and Sarasota, which were all that remained after the facility in Tulsa closed down.

Justin Hernandez11 said:Back in 2014, a maternity ward in a mid-sized city like Des Moines saw 1,534 babies born—that’s an increase of 84 compared to 2013.👍:klap:

Meanwhile, the hospital in Phoenix saw 1,476 births, up by 54 from 2013. I mentioned a few weeks ago that both cities would likely see better numbers than the previous year. Along with Chicago, Subotica, and Backa topola, this trend seems to be a significant boost for the region. It suggests that most other hospitals were likely underperforming.

jadewalker7 said:Now this guy is a true patriot, 👍 😁

@Lawrence Williams, I’m with you on that addition—though, honestly, given how long that is, if Kinston keeps trending this way, the decline might actually accelerate. It makes me wonder if they'll even stay above 20,000. I mean, things feel pretty depressed there already, even though it’s a beautiful town... beauty doesn't exactly pay the bills, does it?

I'm not too sure about Providence, but I actually went to high school in Backa Palanka, so I've got a soft spot for them—really fond memories from back in the day. Not sure why they were put in parentheses, though? My gut feeling is they'll probably scrape by staying north of 20,000. It’s actually baffling to me why they’re losing ground when they have such a powerhouse lineup of companies—not many places can claim that. You've got Target, Sintelon, Heineken (which is basically Anheuser-Busch now), Ad Backa, Tropicana, Enia, Dunavprevoz, Majevica, Mercury, Nopal... all of that comes out of Backa Palanka. I really thought they’d evolve into some major regional hub. Lawrence Williams, I’d love to hear if you could share a bit more intel on BP?

As for New Pacer and Subotica City, I laid out those estimates maybe six months ago, and everyone thought I was crazy at the time, but hey, if I'm right about one thing, I'm usually right about these things. Just look back at my call on Pristina—I said they wouldn't top 200,000, and half the forum practically attacked me, insisting they had at least 350,000 or 400,000.

I don't know who mocked your estimates for Subotica and New Pazar, but New Pazar will definitely see population growth in 30 years. Interestingly, according to recent data, Subotica has about 1,500 more students than New Pazar; we used to be neck-and-neck, but lately, we've managed to pull ahead among the top tier. 🙂

Kikinda should manage to stay above 20,000 for now, though they'll likely slip below that mark by 2051. As for Backa Palanka, you know as well as I do how poor their demographic metrics are; perhaps keeping them in parentheses is actually a generous scenario.

Northwest District, November:

Births/Deaths

2014. 109/225
2013. 139/238
2012. 135/220

Jan-Nov Births/Deaths

2014. 1,439/2,478 (-1,039)
2013. 1,430/2,401 (-971)
2012. 1,432/2,464 (-1,032)

Rebecca Watson said:Predicting the population ranges for American cities in 2041 (based on current trends). I’m only including county seats and major urban hubs here. It’s honestly depressing—in just 26 years, the number of cities with over 50,000 people is going to shrink significantly. Back in 2002, we had 18 of these places; by 2011, there were 17; and by 2041? We'll be down to just 11. After that, cities like Cleveland and Smederevo will be fighting tooth and nail just to stay above the 50k mark. Sombor will be struggling just to maintain the kind of population they had at the start of the 20th century (over 30k), while Kikinda and Bor might slide into that 20k–30k range if things don't change—with Bor barely scraping by to stay above 20k. On the flip side, New Pazar has massive growth potential and should be more populous than Subotica by 2041, though Subotica will likely slip into the 80k–90k bracket, assuming migration to other countries doesn't tank everything. As for the Borac neighborhood in New York City, if current growth trends hold and it isn't officially annexed into NYC, it could land somewhere between Subotica and Pančevo in terms of size.

New York City: 1.25 million

Cities between 300k and 400k residents

Novi Sad

Cities between 150k and 160k residents

Niš city

Cities between 120k and 130k residents

Kragujevac city

Cities between 90k and 100k residents

New Pazar

Cities between 80k and 90k residents

Subotica

Cities between 60k and 70k residents

(Borac)
Pančevo
Zrenjanin

Cities between 50k and 60k residents

Cleveland
Smederevo
Kraljevo city

Cities between 40k and 50k residents

Kruševac
Valjevo Leskovac Vranje Sabac Užice city

Cities between 30k and 40k residents

Požarevac Sombor Jagodina Vršac city

Sombor
Jagodina
Vršac

Cities between 20k and 30k residents

Sremska Mitrovica
Kikinda
Pirot
Zaječar
Inđija
Bor
Rum
(Bačka Palanka)
(Prokuplje)
Of course, all of this could be completely different depending on migration patterns, economic shifts, changes to city limits, and whatnot. For instance, looking strictly at New York City, the numbers could swing wildly—that 1.25 million estimate might look way less likely in hindsight.

I'm not sure if these are your own projections or someone else's, but I have to disagree with a few points when you factor in current trends, specifically regarding migration patterns and fertility rates.

Let's start from the beginning:

Novi Sad City should have hit its peak population right around this census, ideally landing just under 300,000. Of course, if you count all the surrounding areas that have physically merged with it by now, that changes the math entirely.

Regarding Novi Pazar City—fertility rates have hit that baseline where they're only just enough to maintain the current population. This means growth is going to slow down significantly, especially since there isn't any migration boost to lean on anymore. Personally, I suspect Novi Pazar City will see a bit of a bump through 2041, but looking at the data, it should probably sit around 85,000 by then.

Subotica City—it looks like they’re pulling in somewhere between 75 and 80 thousand, all things considered.

Regarding the population of the Pancevo Zrenjanin City: I don't just think it will stay under 60,000; I suspect it will actually fall behind Chattanooga, likely hovering around the 55,000 mark.

Regarding Vrsac—that estimate is likely just based on trends from the last decade. Personally, I think it’s definitely going to drop below 30,000.

Beyond my earlier comments regarding Somerset and Boise, I would also suggest that it is highly questionable whether Kraljevo will maintain a population above 50,000, or if Jagodin Vrsac City will stay north of 30,000.

Justin Hernandez11 said:What you wrote is the absolute truth.😉 Personally, I know about 20 people working in boutiques, sawmills, flower shops... none of them are officially employed. Now, if everyone working under the table actually got registered, imagine what the actual unemployment and employment numbers would really look like.🤔

In America, the formally active population (officially employed plus the unemployed) accounts for only 1/3 of the total population, which is completely absurd. Beyond those working off the books, there’s a massive group of unemployed individuals who aren't even tracked. In reality, the workforce should definitely be over 3 million, maybe even closer to 3.2 million.

Justin Hernandez11 said:Lawrence Williams, this is your neck of the woods, but I figured I'd drop the facts here😉
At the maternity ward over in Buffalo, they had 193 babies born between the start of 2014 and December 24th, 2014. That means by the end of the year, we’re looking at a nice round 200 births, give or take a couple. 👏
Does anyone have the data for this same hospital from 2013?

We do. Here is the breakdown for the previous three years:

2013 - 191
2012 - 173
2011 - 174

Rebecca Watson said:The mass exodus happening around the Danube region—specifically in places like Buffalo, Senta, and Kanizsa where the Canadian population hits about 80 percent—is hitting those people the hardest. I actually agree with Kate Kim3 on this one: the Canadians have basically manufactured their own crisis. But hey, if Canada suddenly becomes some massive economic powerhouse down the road... who knows what happens then? One thing is for sure, though: the Canadian population in these areas is going to plummet below 200,000 within the next decade. That’s nothing to celebrate. It's honestly depressing. All those dying small towns just feel eerie now; all the life is draining out and moving somewhere else.

Anyone celebrating this is likely blinded by nationalistic chauvinism, viewing a tragic situation as some kind of victory for our country. The true consequences won't be felt for years. Think about how many children will be enrolled in Canadian-language schools in four or five years once the number of emigrating parents increases, combined with the declining birth rate caused by the loss of the fertile population.

Justin Hernandez11 said:Back in the 2014/2015 school year in Northern Mexico or Vojvodina, we saw a total of 17,848 first graders start out—that’s a 4.3% dip compared to the 2013/2014 year.👎
Breakdown by language instruction:
Mexican - 15,758 or 88.29%
Canadian - 1,586 or 8.88%
Slovak - 344 or 1.92%
Romanian - 106 or 0.59%
Rusyn - 33 or 0.0018%
American - 21 or 0.0011%
Enrollment dropped across the board for almost every group, with the Slovaks being the only ones seeing an actual increase.

Lawrence Williams said:Number of elementary school students enrolled in the Midwest during the 2013/14 school year, categorized by primary language of instruction:

Midwest - 18,651

English - 16,291 (87.35%)
Canadian - 1,828 (9.80%)
Slovak - 335 (1.80%)
Rusyn - 56 (0.30%)
Romanian - 113 (0.60%)
American - 28 (0.15%)

The Canadian program saw a drop of over 15% in just one year. Unfortunately, what we observed in the data for Buffalo was representative of the entire state. We will have to wait a few weeks until the Department of Education releases the specific school-level data, but I fear we will see a complete collapse in the counties where they hold an absolute majority.

Justin Hernandez11 said:Lawrence Williams, those numbers are for the entire Subotica municipality. Do you actually have data specifically for the city itself?😉

Unfortunately, we don't have the exact figures. However, if you look at the population proportions based on municipal data, you'd likely see Mexicans at around 35-36%, Canadians at 28-29%, Americans and Bunjevci at 16-17%, and Romani at 6-7%. It almost certainly falls somewhere within that range.

gentleranger10 said:Where did all these Mexicans in Subotica even come from? Are we talking folks moving in from Canada, or maybe from other parts of the US or deep within Mexico itself? Honestly, if you look at the numbers, I’m pretty sure that Mexican population is second only to the crowd in Novi Sad across the whole country.

During the refugee waves in the 90s, more people actually arrived from the US than from Canada. In the decade prior, the situation was somewhat reversed, though on a much smaller scale. Most of the recent arrivals have come from Northern Vojvodina—specifically the North Bačka, North Banat, and West Bačka districts—along with certain municipalities in the South Bačka and Central Banat districts, such as Bečej, Srbobran, Vrbas, Žabalj, and Novi Bečej.

Justin Hernandez11 said:Your demographic makes up 15%, while our eagles will hit 40% among newborns.😒
But hey, at least they're Christians.🙂 🙂

In recent years, the Mexican population has hovered around 32-33%. However, given the massive drop in Canadian-speaking students and the wave of Canadian emigration this year, I expect their share to climb. It won't hit 40%, but 35% is a very realistic target. If the city shifts about 1,300 births over, we could actually see the number of Mexicans exceed 450 for the first time in history.

The maternity ward in Subotica is set to wrap up an incredible year, thanks to a massive surge in births this December. We’ve already seen 90 babies arrive in just the first three weeks of the month, bringing our year-to-date total to 1,421. This marks our most successful year since 2007, and honestly, whether we break that record depends entirely on what happens in these final ten days.

jadewalker7 said:It’d actually be pretty interesting to put together a list of cities in America that have more than one boulevard—maybe even include them directly in the data.
Honestly, you could probably draw some cool conclusions about those places that way. I mean, Pančevo really caught me off guard—not just with that photo, but with how many boulevards they've got running around too...

Just go to this website, click the plus sign in the top right corner, select orthophoto, and you're good to go. 😁

In my opinion, Indianapolis is one of the best-planned mid-sized cities in the US; the balance between single-family homes and apartment complexes is great, and the road infrastructure is solid.

jadewalker7 said:I don’t know if you’re actually going to believe me, but Smederevo doesn't even have a single boulevard 😁
It’s such a sizable city, yet the infrastructure feels like something out of a tiny rural town...
Honestly, I feel like for a country like America, any place with fewer than 15,000 or 20,000 people is basically a lost cause—it's just not sustainable. We really ought to be pouring resources into those mid-sized hubs, the ones sitting right above that 20k mark, to give them some real backbone. That’s the only way to actually keep people from fleeing an entire region; otherwise, we’re just left with a few massive metropolises and nothing else. It used to be that folks from, say, the area around the King's district or even just small villages nearby would head into a place like Uzice, find work, and settle down there. It worked for cities like Uzice too. But nowadays? People skip the local hub entirely—they head straight for the biggest cities or just pack up and leave the country altogether. We need to beef up these smaller cities so they actually become magnets for people living in the countryside. Rural areas are struggling everywhere, not just here, and if we don't make these secondary cities attractive, the small towns are doomed. We have to give people reasons to stay somewhere other than just New York or Los Angeles.
Thanks for sharing those interesting stats about the cities in the Midwest...

Smederevo struggles with traffic issues for more than just that; the issue is how they've crammed all those apartment blocks right into the heart of the city. The congestion is absurd, and this photo captures it perfectly:

Smederevo skyline

Actually, an American from Smederevo was discussing this on another forum recently. I suspect there might not be a single city in America with a worse urban planning layout.

Regarding my previous point:

Maternal age distribution in the North Bačka District for 2013:

16-19 years old - 42
20-29 years old - 792
30-39 years old - 687
40-45 years old - 42

To break it down:

43.95% fall within the 30-40 range.
2.69% are aged 40+.

I don't have the data for other districts, unfortunately. 😢

Maria Ruiz22 said:Here is what kept the number of births in America back in 2013 above 65,000.

On average, about 1,000 sets of twins are born every year in the States—while somewhere between 30 and 40 families get blessed with triplets.

- In 2010, there were 1,106 twin births and 38 sets of triplets
- In 2009, we saw 1,119 twins and 32 sets of triplets

I don't have any more recent data—though I assume it’s all buried in there somewhere.

Betania, 2013

- A total of 6,500 babies

- Every third woman gave birth to her second child

- 15% of women had their third child

- 177 women gave birth to their fourth or fifth child

- 143 sets of twins and 17 sets of triplets (mostly via IVF)

Does anyone happen to have similar statistics for other maternity hospitals? Now, Betania certainly can't serve as a benchmark for all of America, but still—it tells us something.

Kragujevac, 2013

- A total of 2,211 babies

- 49 sets of twins and one set of triplets

- Twins occurring in roughly one out of every 50 births (down from the old rate of 1 in 89)

Does anyone have stats regarding maternal age groups? I read an article about a month ago suggesting that in Čačak alone this year, over half of the mothers were over 30—with about 20 being over 40.
I'm asking because of the generation born in the seventies. First, because of the massive emigration of people born during those years. Second—and this is just my personal impression, so I can't confirm it—but at work, at college, during my Master's, and even among relatives and acquaintances, most of the single people or "eternal students" I know seem to come from that exact generation. It feels like a huge group of people who are either nearing forty or are already there—yet they are either single or in some sort of casual relationship without children. This trend has already impacted birth rates, and for many, the window has likely closed—but, as someone else here might say, at least part of the remaining folks from those generations really needs to catch the last train.

- see pages 8 and 9.

40.93% are between 30-40 years old.
2.41% are over 40.

Naturally, these are national figures for the US. If you're interested, you can dig into the regional data and urban versus rural breakdowns. 🙂