Kyle Campbell4 said:The same rhetoric about a critical crisis was being used back then, too. When some local extremist sets the Midwest on fire, you will likely just pretend it doesn't concern you while you're lounging on a beach in Florida or packing your bags for a move to Germany.
Why would he bother starting a fire in the Middle East? What's in it for him? If he manages to grab what he wants right now—essentially creating a buffer zone between Russia and NATO—he can retire peacefully as the man who secured Russia's survival and future. He could even stage an internal coup where some young "liberal" takes over, giving the West a perfect cover story to start warming up relations with a new, "rational" Russia. Of course, once territory is seized, it stays seized. No guarantees there.
Kyle Lopez2 said:But isn't the underlying issue still there? The Russians might be making headway, but they remain incredibly vulnerable, facing chronic manpower shortages and terrible logistics. No one would be surprised if they managed to pull off a win, but honestly, no one would be shocked if they just fell apart—running out of fuel and ammo and being forced into a retreat because of internal chaos.
All those assumptions about low troop numbers and bad logistics rely on the idea that Western media reports are gospel and that the West actually understands Russian military doctrine. I’m not suggesting everything on X or Twitter is a total fabrication—like we're living in a movie like *Wag the Dog*—but rather, shouldn't we ask if these losses were factored into the planning? Because if they accounted for them and built in redundancies, then maybe it isn't such a massive problem after all.
Remember how at the start, everyone was talking about the "Ukrainian spirit" in Kyiv, air superiority, paratrooper victories, blah blah blah? And how did that turn out? The Russians have air dominance in Ukraine, and the Ukrainians are basically traveling around Europe begging for any plane they can get.
Of course, everything I'm saying might be complete nonsense. I didn't even think this whole thing would happen; I thought he was just rattling off weapons to get better leverage during negotiations or something.