Posts by Patrick Moore3

Patrick Moore3

quiettrucker12 said:Right now, the only real headache comes from the tug-of-war between the S&P 500 and the US Dollar. They’re feeding off each other. Since the Euro is currently driving the strength of the Dollar, you could argue the real issue lies with stock prices and the Euro situation. Honestly, I’m not even sweating the Dollar much right now; I think Ben did exactly what he needed to do. As for gold, it all boils down to the S&P 500 and this supposed "crash" everyone is screaming about. Those crashes are incredibly rare, and if you ask me, the odds are slim. If the S&P 500 sees a correction over the next couple of days (or if it already happened last Friday), gold is going to rocket upward. That’s just how the math works, and frankly, it's the most likely scenario. A total stock market meltdown would probably drag gold up too, mainly because the Dollar would spike (>84). There's a decent chance the Dollar peaked on Friday, just like stocks hit their floor. Gold is basically just waiting for the bottom in equities to start its violent move up. It's hard to imagine a market crash happening right after they kicked off new Quantitative Easing—which, let's be real, is mostly useless anyway—specifically to prevent another 2008-style disaster. The doomsday prophets know this, so they play their trump card: praying Ben stops or delays this new QE. I find that hard to swallow. That would be a massive 180-degree policy pivot. Doing that would trigger deflation, bankruptcies, and naturally, a stock market crash. It seems unlikely the Federal Reserve would pull a stunt like that when they only need to give the market a tiny nudge downward to make it collapse. My take? Everything stays the course. Either the S&P finished its correction on Friday, or it wraps it up by Monday or Tuesday. After that, gold either hits $1800 (causing everyone to whine about a double top) before pausing and hitting $1900, or it blasts through $1800, stalls at $1820 for a breather, and then heads for $1900. If it were easy, everyone would be rich.

Dollar at 150 DMA, is a reversal coming?

We'll see on Monday. 150 might be enough to stall the rally.

Since we're talking about the same thing, I'll just answer your questions right in your own post... Sorry to break it to you, but Ben hasn't done a damn thing.

Quote : Patrick Moore3

quiettrucker12 said:Right now, the only real headache comes from the tug-of-war between the S&P 500 and the US Dollar. They’re feeding off each other. Since the Euro is currently driving the strength of the Dollar, you could argue the real issue lies with stock prices and the Euro situation. Honestly, I’m not even sweating the Dollar much right now; I think Ben did exactly what he needed to do. As for gold, it all boils down to the S&P 500 and this supposed "crash" everyone is screaming about. Those crashes are incredibly rare, and if you ask me, the odds are slim. If the S&P 500 sees a correction over the next couple of days (or if it already happened last Friday), gold is going to rocket upward. That’s just how the math works, and frankly, it's the most likely scenario. A total stock market meltdown would probably drag gold up too, mainly because the Dollar would spike (>84). There's a decent chance the Dollar peaked on Friday, just like stocks hit their floor. Gold is basically just waiting for the bottom in equities to start its violent move up. It's hard to imagine a market crash happening right after they kicked off new Quantitative Easing—which, let's be real, is mostly useless anyway—specifically to prevent another 2008-style disaster. The doomsday prophets know this, so they play their trump card: praying Ben stops or delays this new QE. I find that hard to swallow. That would be a massive 180-degree policy pivot. Doing that would trigger deflation, bankruptcies, and naturally, a stock market crash. It seems unlikely the Federal Reserve would pull a stunt like that when they only need to give the market a tiny nudge downward to make it collapse. My take? Everything stays the course. Either the S&P finished its correction on Friday, or it wraps it up by Monday or Tuesday. After that, gold either hits $1800 (causing everyone to whine about a double top) before pausing and hitting $1900, or it blasts through $1800, stalls at $1820 for a breather, and then heads for $1900. If it were easy, everyone would be rich.

Dollar at 150 DMA, is a reversal coming?

We'll see on Monday. 150 might be enough to stall the rally.

Man, there were days when an 81 felt like a total fluke. An 82? Forget about it, impossible. And 84? That was straight-up science fiction.

Patrick Moore3

quiettrucker12 said:Right now, the only real headache comes from the tug-of-war between the S&P 500 and the US Dollar. They’re feeding off each other. Since the Euro is currently driving the strength of the Dollar, you could argue the real issue lies with stock prices and the Euro situation. Honestly, I’m not even sweating the Dollar much right now; I think Ben did exactly what he needed to do. As for gold, it all boils down to the S&P 500 and this supposed "crash" everyone is screaming about. Those crashes are incredibly rare, and if you ask me, the odds are slim. If the S&P 500 sees a correction over the next couple of days (or if it already happened last Friday), gold is going to rocket upward. That’s just how the math works, and frankly, it's the most likely scenario. A total stock market meltdown would probably drag gold up too, mainly because the Dollar would spike (>84). There's a decent chance the Dollar peaked on Friday, just like stocks hit their floor. Gold is basically just waiting for the bottom in equities to start its violent move up. It's hard to imagine a market crash happening right after they kicked off new Quantitative Easing—which, let's be real, is mostly useless anyway—specifically to prevent another 2008-style disaster. The doomsday prophets know this, so they play their trump card: praying Ben stops or delays this new QE. I find that hard to swallow. That would be a massive 180-degree policy pivot. Doing that would trigger deflation, bankruptcies, and naturally, a stock market crash. It seems unlikely the Federal Reserve would pull a stunt like that when they only need to give the market a tiny nudge downward to make it collapse. My take? Everything stays the course. Either the S&P finished its correction on Friday, or it wraps it up by Monday or Tuesday. After that, gold either hits $1800 (causing everyone to whine about a double top) before pausing and hitting $1900, or it blasts through $1800, stalls at $1820 for a breather, and then heads for $1900. If it were easy, everyone would be rich.

Dollar at 150 DMA, is a reversal coming?

We'll see on Monday. 150 might be enough to stall the rally.

Look, QE3 didn't actually happen. Seriously. Just take a look at the Federal Reserve's balance sheet—they haven't bought a damn thing.
Check this out. Just digging through some recent data from the Federal Reserve. Really makes you think about where we're heading. Any thoughts?

Patrick Moore3

quiettrucker12 said:Right now, the only real headache comes from the tug-of-war between the S&P 500 and the US Dollar. They’re feeding off each other. Since the Euro is currently driving the strength of the Dollar, you could argue the real issue lies with stock prices and the Euro situation. Honestly, I’m not even sweating the Dollar much right now; I think Ben did exactly what he needed to do. As for gold, it all boils down to the S&P 500 and this supposed "crash" everyone is screaming about. Those crashes are incredibly rare, and if you ask me, the odds are slim. If the S&P 500 sees a correction over the next couple of days (or if it already happened last Friday), gold is going to rocket upward. That’s just how the math works, and frankly, it's the most likely scenario. A total stock market meltdown would probably drag gold up too, mainly because the Dollar would spike (>84). There's a decent chance the Dollar peaked on Friday, just like stocks hit their floor. Gold is basically just waiting for the bottom in equities to start its violent move up. It's hard to imagine a market crash happening right after they kicked off new Quantitative Easing—which, let's be real, is mostly useless anyway—specifically to prevent another 2008-style disaster. The doomsday prophets know this, so they play their trump card: praying Ben stops or delays this new QE. I find that hard to swallow. That would be a massive 180-degree policy pivot. Doing that would trigger deflation, bankruptcies, and naturally, a stock market crash. It seems unlikely the Federal Reserve would pull a stunt like that when they only need to give the market a tiny nudge downward to make it collapse. My take? Everything stays the course. Either the S&P finished its correction on Friday, or it wraps it up by Monday or Tuesday. After that, gold either hits $1800 (causing everyone to whine about a double top) before pausing and hitting $1900, or it blasts through $1800, stalls at $1820 for a breather, and then heads for $1900. If it were easy, everyone would be rich.

Dollar at 150 DMA, is a reversal coming?

We'll see on Monday. 150 might be enough to stall the rally.

So, what now? Since Quantitative Easing 3 never actually happened... are the doomsday preppers right? Are we staring down the barrel of deflation and mass bankruptcies?

quiettrucker12 said:Right now, the only real headache comes from the tug-of-war between the S&P 500 and the US Dollar. They’re feeding off each other. Since the Euro is currently driving the strength of the Dollar, you could argue the real issue lies with stock prices and the Euro situation. Honestly, I’m not even sweating the Dollar much right now; I think Ben did exactly what he needed to do. As for gold, it all boils down to the S&P 500 and this supposed "crash" everyone is screaming about. Those crashes are incredibly rare, and if you ask me, the odds are slim. If the S&P 500 sees a correction over the next couple of days (or if it already happened last Friday), gold is going to rocket upward. That’s just how the math works, and frankly, it's the most likely scenario. A total stock market meltdown would probably drag gold up too, mainly because the Dollar would spike (>84). There's a decent chance the Dollar peaked on Friday, just like stocks hit their floor. Gold is basically just waiting for the bottom in equities to start its violent move up. It's hard to imagine a market crash happening right after they kicked off new Quantitative Easing—which, let's be real, is mostly useless anyway—specifically to prevent another 2008-style disaster. The doomsday prophets know this, so they play their trump card: praying Ben stops or delays this new QE. I find that hard to swallow. That would be a massive 180-degree policy pivot. Doing that would trigger deflation, bankruptcies, and naturally, a stock market crash. It seems unlikely the Federal Reserve would pull a stunt like that when they only need to give the market a tiny nudge downward to make it collapse. My take? Everything stays the course. Either the S&P finished its correction on Friday, or it wraps it up by Monday or Tuesday. After that, gold either hits $1800 (causing everyone to whine about a double top) before pausing and hitting $1900, or it blasts through $1800, stalls at $1820 for a breather, and then heads for $1900. If it were easy, everyone would be rich.

Dollar at 150 DMA, is a reversal coming?

We'll see on Monday. 150 might be enough to stall the rally.

To me, this looks like an attempt to prop up the indices ahead of the elections. They're trying to dodge a repeat of the 2008 nightmare. How else do you explain the talk about Quantitative Easing 3? Just the mere whisper of it triggers such a massive psychological reaction.

quiettrucker12 said:Right now, the only real headache comes from the tug-of-war between the S&P 500 and the US Dollar. They’re feeding off each other. Since the Euro is currently driving the strength of the Dollar, you could argue the real issue lies with stock prices and the Euro situation. Honestly, I’m not even sweating the Dollar much right now; I think Ben did exactly what he needed to do. As for gold, it all boils down to the S&P 500 and this supposed "crash" everyone is screaming about. Those crashes are incredibly rare, and if you ask me, the odds are slim. If the S&P 500 sees a correction over the next couple of days (or if it already happened last Friday), gold is going to rocket upward. That’s just how the math works, and frankly, it's the most likely scenario. A total stock market meltdown would probably drag gold up too, mainly because the Dollar would spike (>84). There's a decent chance the Dollar peaked on Friday, just like stocks hit their floor. Gold is basically just waiting for the bottom in equities to start its violent move up. It's hard to imagine a market crash happening right after they kicked off new Quantitative Easing—which, let's be real, is mostly useless anyway—specifically to prevent another 2008-style disaster. The doomsday prophets know this, so they play their trump card: praying Ben stops or delays this new QE. I find that hard to swallow. That would be a massive 180-degree policy pivot. Doing that would trigger deflation, bankruptcies, and naturally, a stock market crash. It seems unlikely the Federal Reserve would pull a stunt like that when they only need to give the market a tiny nudge downward to make it collapse. My take? Everything stays the course. Either the S&P finished its correction on Friday, or it wraps it up by Monday or Tuesday. After that, gold either hits $1800 (causing everyone to whine about a double top) before pausing and hitting $1900, or it blasts through $1800, stalls at $1820 for a breather, and then heads for $1900. If it were easy, everyone would be rich.

Dollar at 150 DMA, is a reversal coming?

We'll see on Monday. 150 might be enough to stall the rally.

I'd love to see you guys make some money... but I'm worried none of this will pan out.
Feels like something ugly is brewing just over the horizon...

dustyheron5 said:Patrick Moore3

You’re right—metals tend to dance in lockstep with everything else, and they have for decades. At the end of the day, it always comes down to one thing: timing. Knowing exactly when to get in and when to get out is everything. 😉

If you look at the last five years—it’s pretty clear—metals have been performing significantly better.😍 Look, if you want to talk about the stock market—and I mean actually talk about it, rather than just tossing around empty rhetoric—you need to look at the data. Here is a quick chart to get us started. Take a look. 😂

http://static.alsosprachanalyst.com/...age_thumb1.png

Keep in mind—that comparison dates all the way back to August 9, 2012. Since then, both gold and silver have continued their upward climb—gold moving from $1,620 to $1,730, while silver climbed from $28.13 to $32.57.

Regarding the debt ceiling—I think you’re missing the mark here. Once they actually raise it... well, just like you mentioned... that becomes yet another catalyst for metal prices to climb. That is exactly the point.

Look, I'm not an idiot. Don't throw those cheap five-year stats at me... save that for someone else. I'm not talking about a five-year window here. Around mid-September last year, I was actually bullish on gold myself... but based on certain indicators, back when gold was still sitting at 18xx, I was the first one brave enough to post here on September 15th saying gold was in a bubble and wouldn't last much longer...
While everyone else was celebrating Quantitative Easing 3 and predicting gold would hit astronomical levels, I told them straight up: "Enjoy your few days of celebration, because we're going right back to how things were."
Now, people will probably claim it was all predictable, even though I'm being called "full of nonsense" by some...

dustyheron5 said:It’s hard for him to screw me over when I’m sitting on my dollar reserves......😉

plus, I’ve locked in enough gains this year......😍

Anyway, now that the presidential election is behind us, we can finally focus on the fiscal cliff, spending cuts, and the debt ceiling😍......there’s always a reason for metals to rally....

those used to be actual drivers... nowadays metals just dance along with the rest of Wall Street... 😢
and don't get too hung up on the debt ceiling either... Congress will probably bump that limit to 18 or 19 trillion US Dollars and we'll just keep riding the same old wave for another year or two😉

dustyheron5 said:Great breakdown, colleague—really solid overview of the current situation. I’m hoping things play out exactly like this, as I find myself in total agreement with your assessment.
I pulled the trigger today and bought ERF at $13.01, just like I mentioned yesterday... so, it's done.
Now, I'll just grab some popcorn and keep a close eye on things.

What's that saying? "Hope springs eternal"? 😉
DXY shot past 81, and looks like Ben Shapiro totally played us with QE3:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/moneta...centtrends.htm :klap:

This "pattern" in gold trading during the 8:30-9:00 AM window in New York... Wall Street lost power because of the hurricane 🍿

Harold Martin10 said:We saw this kind of chatter all over the internet back in 2006—if not even earlier, though I wasn't really paying attention then.🙂 I distinctly remember those big-name gurus claiming the US dollar would be completely worthless by 2008.

Oh yeah... you missed the '30s, the '70s, and the early '80s...
Probably more stories like this before then, but I didn't go that far back 😬

quiettrucker12 said:😁 Facts.... this whole thing is messy. It all boils down to the Dollar—basically, whether Mr. $ actually bottomed out on September 14th or not. I don't see an issue holding through a correction; I doubt we drop below 1680, which is only about a 5% dip, though mining stocks might take a harder 12% hit.🙂

But what if it actually breaks below 1680?

dustyheron5 said:The Federal Reserve controls velocity, so there isn't much direct correlation between them—aside from the fact that central banks monitor velocity to try and balance the two categories. It’s similar to how the Federal Reserve targets nominal GDP...

Right now, we are seeing a collision of forces: deflationary pressures on what citizens hold (labor, real estate, etc.) versus inflationary pressures on essential assets (food, energy, utilities). That is precisely where the conflict between deflationists and inflationists stems from.

For instance, I personally bought a tool for 50% less than usual, yet my electricity and water bills have jumped by 30% (though I have my own well and water source, and don't use gas at all 😍).......

Initially, "easy money" doesn't hit every asset class simultaneously. It trickles through certain sectors first. It could take quite a while before the effects are felt across the entire board.

Back in the late '20s, drilling rigs in Texas really ramped up and pushed oil prices down, eventually landing them just north of $0.60 a barrel by the early '30s. Since oil prices pull everything else along with them—food, utilities, travel costs—we saw deflation hit every single sector during the Great Depression.
Given how much oil production has basically flatlined over the last five years while demand from the East keeps climbing... it's pretty obvious prices are headed up. That means higher food costs, heating bills, utilities, and everything else tied to it.

If the Arab nations decide to turn off the taps (like what happened in Texas in the late '20s) and oil drops back to that $30-$40 range we saw during the 2008-2009 transition... we could see statistical deflation across the board in the medium term, regardless of whatever moves the Federal Reserve tries to make!

vividgull10 said:If I'm following you, money velocity is basically just measuring how fast the cash created by the Federal Reserve moves from banks into the economy through credit. So, you're saying the Federal Reserve controls the money supply while the market drives velocity, right?

From what I remember reading about inflation, it’s not something that just happens instantly; it goes through specific stages.

But I was thinking about something else. It's not just about whether prices go up and we call it inflation. For example, if electricity prices spike by 50%, but the money supply (or velocity?) grew by 60%—wouldn't we effectively be looking at deflation?

ps.
When calculating inflation, do they look at *why* prices are rising? Because I doubt they care if food gets more expensive due to monetary policy versus a drought.

Not quite. It's more about how many times that same dollar changes hands over a certain period. Think about it: I buy something from you for $100, then you take that $100 and buy something from a third person, who buys from a fourth, and so on. That's circulation.
The problem we're seeing now? I buy something from you for $100, but instead of spending it, you just use it to pay down a loan... and boom, the circulation just stops.

Amy Sanchez2 said:God, I honestly pity these so-called experts and the massive paychecks they pull for being so wrong. It’s like they’re mentally stuck in 1971 and just refuse to accept that the entire American monetary system has fundamentally shifted since then—I mean, the gold standard is dead, and ever since '82, the money supply hasn't even played the role people think it does.

According to the quantity theory of money:
MV = PQ

Greyer focuses way too much on the money supply (M), but he's completely overlooking the fact that back in '82, the Federal Reserve basically gave up on targeting the money supply altogether and pivoted toward targeting interest rates instead. And you know why? Because around 1980, the velocity of money (V) started acting totally bizarre; it stopped growing linearly like the theory predicts it should have from 1958 through 1980. So, the Federal Reserve just walked away from trying to control the money supply because they realized velocity could plummet at any moment, which essentially made that whole theory useless for actually "controlling" the economy.



The Count's chart explains everything perfectly: if the Federal Reserve were pumping out this much cash through things like QE back in, say, 1965, we would be staring down the barrel of hyperinflation right now (because if M and V both rise according to that equation, prices P absolutely have to skyrocket). But since V is falling today, the Federal Reserve can print as much as they want, and yet, look—no miracle hyperinflation in sight.

👍

We're looking at a vicious cycle here—a spiral involving debt, GDP, and money velocity. Usually, velocity drops because of deflation (lower prices), recessions (unemployment plus people hoarding cash out of fear), and debt levels (servicing what we owe). This hits the "C" and "I" parts of GDP, dragging everything down.
The Keynes fans would say the fix is pumping up government spending—the "G" component in the GDP formula. But since the government is broke, they have to borrow. That borrowed cash just slows down velocity even more in the long run, and we're right back where we started. Back in the Keynes era, debt wasn't what it is today, so pumping spending actually helped growth. Now? It’s just delaying the inevitable...
Besides the drop in M1V, look at M2V. It’s sitting at its lowest levels since they started tracking it: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?id=M2V
If you look at the crashes in 2000 and 2008, an M2V drop is usually followed by a recession... and I think it's pretty obvious a new one is on the horizon.

neondriver5 said:

I'm struggling to wrap my head around this. Two things to start with:

Is it actually possible that Canada has the second-highest unemployment rate on the planet? I don't know if we're talking about surveyed data or official government stats, but this chart is claiming a staggering 48% unemployment rate!?
Most of Africa looks better than that, wtf?

Second question: how is it that fewer people are heading over to Switzerland? They have some of the strongest economies in Europe, an unemployment rate of just 4.8%, and their currency has strengthened significantly against the Euro and the USD—currencies they likely use for most of their imports...

As for gold, I have nothing to add. Nobody knows anything. Everyone is just guessing, and Goldbugs are wandering around aimlessly. I'm still just searching for a reliable broker here in Rhode Island to invest in gold (not miners, actual physical gold, or maybe an ETF) and so on... nothing new in the West.
I'm struggling to wrap my head around this. Two things to start with:

Is it actually possible that Canada has the second-highest unemployment rate on the planet? I don't know if we're talking about surveyed data or official government stats, but this chart is claiming a staggering 48% unemployment rate!?
Most of Africa looks better than that, wtf?

Second question: how is it that fewer people are heading over to Switzerland? They have some of the strongest economies in Europe, an unemployment rate of just 4.8%, and their currency has strengthened significantly against the Euro and the USD—currencies they likely use for most of their imports...

As for gold, I have nothing to add. Nobody knows anything. Everyone is just guessing, and Goldbugs are wandering around aimlessly. I'm still just searching for a reliable broker here in Rhode Island to invest in gold (not miners, actual physical gold, or maybe an ETF) and so on... nothing new in the West.
Got a subscription email hit my inbox the other day: "Word of the day: ETF"!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l36wa...em-uploademail

Japan just kicked off their QE 8 (yeah, eighth time in a row) 😁

dustyheron5 said:Not everyone has the same amount of money; rather, the total volume of debt corresponds to the total level of claims... that is what I was referring to (I agree that physical cash is distributed very unevenly)

The middle class—specifically the less savvy portion of it—is in a very precarious position. I’m hearing that they are shifting away from hedonism toward pure survival and saving... if they can even manage that, given their lack of cash. Beyond that, they are trying to liquidate assets like homes and cars purchased during the market peak. I honestly believe they would drastically scale back the excess of previous years if they even had the option... but they don't. 😉

Regarding the gold price drop from 1900 to 1550, that is accurate, though it sits at 1770 now...
And even in a bull market, stock prices don't move in a straight line. The bottom line is that those who entered metals over the last decade are in the green, while those who went into equities are mostly in the red—at least in the American context; our view from here is a bit more nuanced.

That bigger chunk of the middle class has to pay down those overpriced homes first... and that’s gonna take forever. The smaller group that isn't buried in debt sees an opening now since things are cheaper, but the memory of people getting burned on Wall Street is still fresh... so I’m not so sure how much they actually want to invest! Who knows? Just thinking out loud, trying to see the big picture.

dustyheron5 said:Not everyone has the same amount of money; rather, the total volume of debt corresponds to the total level of claims... that is what I was referring to (I agree that physical cash is distributed very unevenly)

The middle class—specifically the less savvy portion of it—is in a very precarious position. I’m hearing that they are shifting away from hedonism toward pure survival and saving... if they can even manage that, given their lack of cash. Beyond that, they are trying to liquidate assets like homes and cars purchased during the market peak. I honestly believe they would drastically scale back the excess of previous years if they even had the option... but they don't. 😉

Regarding the gold price drop from 1900 to 1550, that is accurate, though it sits at 1770 now...
And even in a bull market, stock prices don't move in a straight line. The bottom line is that those who entered metals over the last decade are in the green, while those who went into equities are mostly in the red—at least in the American context; our view from here is a bit more nuanced.

You're spot on. Anyone who jumped into PM before last year is definitely up. But over the last twelve months, most are down while equity folks are up! It's not that I'm strictly against PM; back in 2007, I was looking at it and almost pulled the trigger on gold... If gold were a true hedge against inflation, I'd have 50% of my net worth in it, but with all the manipulation going on, I don't buy it anymore. My take now? Gold has nowhere to go but sideways or down for the reasons I mentioned. Am I right or wrong? Only time will tell.

dustyheron5 said:No, Ben can't just hand out cartridges—you've got a point there... only Congress has that kind of power, and we might very well see them try it in the near future.

If the middle and working classes actually end up sitting in Congress, then yeah, it's looking likely... but let's be real, they don't even have the cash to run a campaign (and good luck finding a donor who'd willingly take a hit to their own net worth). I highly doubt they'll be the ones calling the shots.😉

Anthony Evans78 said:The debt-free middle class with extra cash in their pockets? It’s honestly never been easier for them to snag a house, a car, or any big investment... or just blow it all on a vacation. In that sense, their purchasing power is actually higher than ever. We live in a culture built entirely on mindless consumption...

You missed one little detail, if you don't mind me adding it.
Most people haven't had the luxury of buying cars, homes, or trips outright; they’ve had to lean heavily on credit just to keep up.
It’s the same story with the government—living way beyond their means for years, and now the bill is finally coming due.

Fair enough 🙂
Financing that consumption is exactly why we're stuck. Those debts have to be paid back now... While money flows toward debt repayment instead of the actual economy, we'll just be spinning in this endless loop.

It's garbage. Politicians were basically buying GDP growth on credit... It helped them win elections while they kept spending, but now that GDP has to be paid back with interest!

dustyheron5 said:It seems some of us are still clinging to delusions, aren't we?

The fact is, not everyone is drowning in debt; for every person in debt, there is typically someone on the other side😂—people who don't necessarily need to sell anything, but instead, they actually need to buy...😍

Why would those holding massive amounts of cash—which buys less and less every day—just sit idly by when they could protect themselves by purchasing real assets?
(They don't strictly have to buy gold or silver—there are plenty of ways to hedge—but gold and silver are the easiest to liquidate if you suddenly need cash.)

The reality is that here in the States, average people (who aren't following global investment trends) are selling their gold (and they barely own any silver) just to cover their utility bills. Yet, despite that heavy selling pressure, the price is sitting at $1,774/oz... and it'll likely clear $1,900 by year-end...

And speaking of central banks, how do you explain the fact that some of them are actively buying gold?
Why would they buy it if they can just print whatever amount of cash they need?
At least you can't accuse them of being financially illiterate... or perhaps you can. 😂

By the way, ZeroHedge and King World News host plenty of brilliant minds. 😉
Not everyone, obviously, but there are enough—you just have to know which ones to listen to.

A 50-50 split is impossible. That would mean everyone has equal cash... which isn't reality. We all know a tiny fraction of people hold most of the wealth...

dustyheron5 said:It seems some of us are still clinging to delusions, aren't we?

The fact is, not everyone is drowning in debt; for every person in debt, there is typically someone on the other side😂—people who don't necessarily need to sell anything, but instead, they actually need to buy...😍

Why would those holding massive amounts of cash—which buys less and less every day—just sit idly by when they could protect themselves by purchasing real assets?
(They don't strictly have to buy gold or silver—there are plenty of ways to hedge—but gold and silver are the easiest to liquidate if you suddenly need cash.)

The reality is that here in the States, average people (who aren't following global investment trends) are selling their gold (and they barely own any silver) just to cover their utility bills. Yet, despite that heavy selling pressure, the price is sitting at $1,774/oz... and it'll likely clear $1,900 by year-end...

And speaking of central banks, how do you explain the fact that some of them are actively buying gold?
Why would they buy it if they can just print whatever amount of cash they need?
At least you can't accuse them of being financially illiterate... or perhaps you can. 😂

By the way, ZeroHedge and King World News host plenty of brilliant minds. 😉
Not everyone, obviously, but there are enough—you just have to know which ones to listen to.

If we stop looking at hedge funds and the big institutional players and look at the middle class—the folks without debt who actually have savings—it hasn't been this easy for them to afford a house, a car, or any major investment in years... or even just blowing it on a vacation! So, from that angle, their cash still carries some weight. We live in a consumerist society where everything is designed to push spending on you...

dustyheron5 said:It seems some of us are still clinging to delusions, aren't we?

The fact is, not everyone is drowning in debt; for every person in debt, there is typically someone on the other side😂—people who don't necessarily need to sell anything, but instead, they actually need to buy...😍

Why would those holding massive amounts of cash—which buys less and less every day—just sit idly by when they could protect themselves by purchasing real assets?
(They don't strictly have to buy gold or silver—there are plenty of ways to hedge—but gold and silver are the easiest to liquidate if you suddenly need cash.)

The reality is that here in the States, average people (who aren't following global investment trends) are selling their gold (and they barely own any silver) just to cover their utility bills. Yet, despite that heavy selling pressure, the price is sitting at $1,774/oz... and it'll likely clear $1,900 by year-end...

And speaking of central banks, how do you explain the fact that some of them are actively buying gold?
Why would they buy it if they can just print whatever amount of cash they need?
At least you can't accuse them of being financially illiterate... or perhaps you can. 😂

By the way, ZeroHedge and King World News host plenty of brilliant minds. 😉
Not everyone, obviously, but there are enough—you just have to know which ones to listen to.

As far as I know, it dropped from $1,900 down to $1,550 over the last year... there's always going to be people selling.😉

dustyheron5 said:It seems some of us are still clinging to delusions, aren't we?

The fact is, not everyone is drowning in debt; for every person in debt, there is typically someone on the other side😂—people who don't necessarily need to sell anything, but instead, they actually need to buy...😍

Why would those holding massive amounts of cash—which buys less and less every day—just sit idly by when they could protect themselves by purchasing real assets?
(They don't strictly have to buy gold or silver—there are plenty of ways to hedge—but gold and silver are the easiest to liquidate if you suddenly need cash.)

The reality is that here in the States, average people (who aren't following global investment trends) are selling their gold (and they barely own any silver) just to cover their utility bills. Yet, despite that heavy selling pressure, the price is sitting at $1,774/oz... and it'll likely clear $1,900 by year-end...

And speaking of central banks, how do you explain the fact that some of them are actively buying gold?
Why would they buy it if they can just print whatever amount of cash they need?
At least you can't accuse them of being financially illiterate... or perhaps you can. 😂

By the way, ZeroHedge and King World News host plenty of brilliant minds. 😉
Not everyone, obviously, but there are enough—you just have to know which ones to listen to.

Goldman Sachs buddy, buddy...

dustyheron5 said:It seems some of us are still clinging to delusions, aren't we?

The fact is, not everyone is drowning in debt; for every person in debt, there is typically someone on the other side😂—people who don't necessarily need to sell anything, but instead, they actually need to buy...😍

Why would those holding massive amounts of cash—which buys less and less every day—just sit idly by when they could protect themselves by purchasing real assets?
(They don't strictly have to buy gold or silver—there are plenty of ways to hedge—but gold and silver are the easiest to liquidate if you suddenly need cash.)

The reality is that here in the States, average people (who aren't following global investment trends) are selling their gold (and they barely own any silver) just to cover their utility bills. Yet, despite that heavy selling pressure, the price is sitting at $1,774/oz... and it'll likely clear $1,900 by year-end...

And speaking of central banks, how do you explain the fact that some of them are actively buying gold?
Why would they buy it if they can just print whatever amount of cash they need?
At least you can't accuse them of being financially illiterate... or perhaps you can. 😂

By the way, ZeroHedge and King World News host plenty of brilliant minds. 😉
Not everyone, obviously, but there are enough—you just have to know which ones to listen to.

For sure they exist, but they get drowned out by a massive pile of trolls...

quiettrucker12 said:Alright, so you doubt Ben’s ability to pull it off, but I don't think you doubt his intentions. After that speech he gave the other day, it’s hard to question what he's aiming for... now I'm convinced he's willing to go all in. If he has to, he'll just start handing out Dollars directly to anyone ready to spend them.

Besides, I don't think Japan is a fair comparison here. What happened there was a natural byproduct of a powerhouse economy. The situation in the USA is anything but like Japan—plus, the USA still holds the reserve currency, giving them a massive amount of leverage for now. Ben is basically a puppet for politicians, and those are the same people who were perfectly fine with dropping atomic bombs just a few years ago.

quiettrucker12 said:Alright, so you doubt Ben’s ability to pull it off, but I don't think you doubt his intentions. After that speech he gave the other day, it’s hard to question what he's aiming for... now I'm convinced he's willing to go all in. If he has to, he'll just start handing out Dollars directly to anyone ready to spend them.

Besides, I don't think Japan is a fair comparison here. What happened there was a natural byproduct of a powerhouse economy. The situation in the USA is anything but like Japan—plus, the USA still holds the reserve currency, giving them a massive amount of leverage for now. Ben is basically a puppet for politicians, and those are the same people who were perfectly fine with dropping atomic bombs just a few years ago.

Maybe Bennett wants to play Robin Hood, handing out dollars and wiping away debts like some kind of hero. But here’s the thing: if you give something to one person, you had to take it from someone else first. You can't just print money out of thin air. When they print it, they're actually snatching it from everyone who actually has something—including our retirement funds—just to hand it over to debtors. Honestly? I think they'd rather watch people starve than part with their capital.

quiettrucker12 said:Did you actually listen to Benov's speech regarding QE3? He didn't sound like he was joking to me. If he wasn't joking, then deflation isn't on the table. Or do you think he was kidding, but just lacks the tools to stop deflation?

The real question is whether we should have expected QE3 (which is basically 4 and 5 rolled into one) this Thursday, September 13th. Personally, I thought QE3 would hit maybe a month later, sometime in the fall. That's just me being out of touch with reality for a month—but "reality" is really just whatever politicians decide it is in their own heads. Benov's speech wasn't some brilliant economic lecture; it was pure political maneuvering. Honestly, some parts were even embarrassing to listen to. Politicians pull these instant moves, and in this case, they're using tactics that have already proven to be useless.

It’s a bit weird to me. We’ve spent months debating whether QE3 would happen or not. We all knew that when it finally arrived, it would be a massive deal. Yet now that it's actually here, everyone is acting like it's nothing or just ignoring it. Most people here who were either predicting it or claiming it wouldn't happen are suddenly silent. Instead of using this moment to face reality and come up with some new strategy so we can all profit together, they've just gone quiet.

I'm leaning toward the second option. He wasn't joking, he just lacks the leverage to stop it... If QE wasn't the answer, the Japanese proved that long before this mess. You could see it with the first two rounds of QE too—didn't work like they wanted, asset prices kept tanking (real estate, for example). So now they're trying the "blindfolded chicken" method, hoping it somehow hits the target this time? Ben simply can't force people to take on debt and buy junk they don't need just to pick up where they left off in 2008... We're looking at a debt deflation cycle, something Irving Fisher described ages ago. Yet back in '95, Ben actually tore him apart:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debt_de...tream_interest

Here's how Fisherman breaks down the situation:

Unless some counteracting cause comes along to prevent the fall in the price level, such a depression as that of 1929-33 (namely when the more the debtors pay the more they owe) tends to continue, going deeper, in a vicious spiral, for many years. There is then no tendency of the boat to stop tipping until it has capsized. Ultimately, of course, but only after almost universal bankruptcy, the indebtedness must cease to grow greater and begin to grow less. Then comes recovery and a tendency for a new boom-depression sequence. This is the so-called "natural" way out of a depression, via needless and cruel bankruptcy, unemployment, and starvation. On the other hand, if the foregoing analysis is correct, it is always economically possible to stop or prevent such a depression simply by reflating the price level up to the average level at which outstanding debts were contracted by existing debtors and assumed by existing creditors, and then maintaining that level unchanged.

...so the real question is: how much reflation is actually doable, and is it even enough? That's another story entirely.

Bottom line? Ben doesn't have much breathing room... OPEC is helping him out a bit by keeping production low to hold inflation steady, but he's still stuck cleaning up the massive mess Greenspan left behind. That's gonna take years to fix...

Robert Vaughn10 said:Personally, I started buying when silver was around $33 per ounce, roughly late 2009 and most of 2010, just before the rally kicked off in September 2010. Now it's sitting near 180-$63. But if I take that silver to a local dealer today, I'll get nothing—maybe $32 per ounce. So, you go for it if you're foolish enough to pay $1.00 per gram; otherwise, you don't. A portion of my silver is in old coins rather than .999 fine. My best buy, by the way, was 13 ounces in old silver coins for $333.
The idea was to get more ounces for my money, which I did, but we need a massive price surge and actual mania for my silver to even approach spot value. If someone believes in silver and still does, that's me. However, I occasionally feel frustrated that people won't look at things from a different perspective. Take Billy, Tiger, and the rest. Sure, Charlemagne, San Francisco, and others chime in, and it's good they do, but I get the sense they have a somewhat dismissive attitude toward this crisis and what might unfold. That wasn't the case with previous critics. Correct me if I'm wrong.
All in all, I think my analysis of the situation is solid, and I don't expect to miss the mark long-term. I doubt the premium on .999 bullion will stay at 20% or higher if the price hits, say, 150 USD per ounce, so my "junk" silver should ideally yield a net profit compared to pure bullion. We'll see.
None of this matters much, but there I am, rambling.🙂
That's quite a bold silver forecast; personally, I doubt it. Maybe 75 USD in my opinion.

Since my name was brought up, I figured I'd jump in... I don't have a "dismissive" attitude toward the crisis. It's just a different perspective—one that isn't built solely on a couple of charts or some articles from ZeroHedge and King World News...
I've got my biases. I don't buy that precious metals are hitting $3500/oz anytime soon. If that even happens, we'll be deep in an inflation cycle where everything else quadruples in price. But I don't see that happening in the next 15-20 years, and if it does, it'll just be standard inflation. Hyperinflation? The total collapse of the monetary system because of it? Not seeing it. Simple reason: central banks have unlimited power to print money, which means they have unlimited power to pull it back out of circulation, too. On the flip side, hyperinflation wipes out debt, sure, but it also nukes all savings and pensions. Since the debtors aren't the ones calling the shots, that scenario seems unlikely. And WW3? Not happening with one military superpower backed by the entire NATO alliance. Regional wars? That's just Tuesday; they never stopped. Plus, look at the global situation. People are drowning in debt, unemployment, soaring energy and food costs, and rising taxes. In a society obsessed with instant gratification, who's actually going to spend money on metals to drive prices up? Especially when people are selling right now instead of buying? Given how things stand, all I see is a massive, long-term deflationary period and the inevitable crash of the artificially inflated Western standard we've lived under for the last decade or so. We have to pay back that credit-driven, consumption-based lifestyle with interest. That process is going to take a long time...

Clearly some idiot in Copy/Paste... Here we go again:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=zNtKk2EmI-o