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Posts by Patrick Moore3

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Gold: Past, Present, and Future in Other Investment Types ·
dustyheron5 said:You were 100% right 😂

Can we move on to the main topic now?

To me, this decision by Bea feels like pure Stagflation... does anyone have a reliable source on this subject?.......😉

Milton Friedman actually coined the term stagflation. I caught Marc Faber on Capital Account last night and he was quoting him quite a bit. Here’s what Friedman had to say:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...bofhGU#t=1396s

You can find his full lecture on those five economic myths right here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...ailpage&v=zNtK
Gold: Past, Present, and Future in Other Investment Types ·
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...VyaT9Y#t=1250s

Think you might dig listening to Marc Faber... Check out the 20:50 mark... He's talking sense, kind of like me 😁
Gold: Past, Present, and Future in Other Investment Types ·
quiettrucker12 said:Actually, it's the opposite. When it comes to commodities, Ben only really cares about oil prices and will try to use politics to keep them under control. He mentioned yesterday that the drought 🤣 caused a slight bump in commodities, which squeezed oil slightly—it's all basically the same thing. People think he's obsessed with the price of gold, but that's far from the truth. He couldn't care less about gold.

Wrong again. Go back and look at your post 3543.🙄

Look... I honestly thought Ben ran the Federal Reserve and called all the shots on the dollar's value.🤔

Colleague, just like anything else in the market, oil is driven by supply and demand first and foremost. If supply has been flat for five years while demand keeps climbing—even with some minor wobbles—then it’s common sense that prices go up. Doesn't matter what unit you're measuring it in.
Gold: Past, Present, and Future in Other Investment Types ·
Anthony Evans78 said:What a load of nonsense, my friend Patrick Moore3 🙂
First off, gold prices in dollars have hit an all-time high.
Second, obviously QE3 is driving up the price of gold. By itself? 🙂 Not a chance. If you actually believe official US statistics, there hasn't even been any inflation. They're even saying unemployment is down. Meanwhile, if you're just an average person paying for gas, groceries, drinks, and rent, inflation in the US is sitting well above 8%.
Inflation is quite simply the act of printing money. And if the last few trillion—plus the next $40 billion a month, plus another five—doesn't count as inflationary to you, then what does? Sure, if it doesn't enter circulation, it isn't "inflationary," but then why bother printing it at all? Oh, right, I forgot... it's all to bail out banks that should have gone bankrupt ages ago.
Do you honestly think energy prices are rising because demand is through the roof? Wrong. They're rising because everything is priced in dollars, and since the government is printing dollars like crazy, the value is tanking. It’s only natural that the price in those same devalued dollars goes up... is that really so hard to wrap your head around?
Deflationary theories don't exist as long as central banks are breathing. Do you seriously believe the people running the printing presses would ever let the little guy see the value of his money go up? 🙂

Hey Silver, I thought you moved into a cave... people actually managed to live there for over 5,000 years, you know. 🤔

Anyway, why do you keep hitting me with all these rhetorical questions? I didn't answer your last ten posts, and I'm not answering this one either. Every single argument with you has been a total waste of time...
Gold: Past, Present, and Future in Other Investment Types ·
dustyheron5 said:Exactly 40 billion a month... though honestly, that’s beside the point. Ben is essentially gambling everything on this...😍

If my colleagues move aggressively on gold tomorrow, they could potentially break through the 1,800 mark... what are your thoughts?👍

AGQ + 8.48%
SLW + 4.50%
MUX + 7.01%

Just running. Today. Buy a kilo of gold... then what? on Maybe JP Morgan could finally wrap up a quarter in the green!

Where exactly are you finding all this hype? We laid our cards on the table back at the end of 2011, and we aren't even due for a look at the results for another three and a half months. You're basically just back to where you were in February. Why the sudden celebration? 😉

Over the last week—actually, looking at all the hype from this past month—it feels like everything that could possibly go right for gold finally did. Every single bullish argument we've heard all year has been fired off. So now what? Is QE3 just supposed to magically send prices through the roof on its own? As if. The first two rounds didn't even trigger the inflation everyone said would drive gold higher. Why? Because people were supposed to have more cash in their pockets, but instead, they actually have less. Neither a third round of QE nor any future rounds are going to change that reality. The people who dreamed this stuff up proved pretty quickly that it doesn't touch inflation or deflation because it doesn't spark new lending. That’s where the real inflation comes from. Right now, the only thing keeping inflation alive is the absolute madness in energy prices. But looking mid-term? We're heading straight back toward deflation.
A few days of good vibes, then we’re right back to the usual grind.
Gold: Past, Present, and Future in Other Investment Types ·
dustyheron5 said:It’s easy to say... I didn't catch the rumor firsthand, but rather heard it through the grapevine😍—specifically from Sean Broderick...😉

But even if that's the case—if they really plan to scoop up that much by 2015—it isn't just bullish for gold prices... it's incredibly bullish. So bullish, in fact, that Karl and Francisko might actually lose their teeth from grinding them so hard.😂

Hey, quiettrucker12, you still living in dreamland? Looks like that 3.89% growth over the last month totally blinded you after we spent an entire year sliding downhill. You really think one good month fixes everything? 😁

Honestly, when I see people blaming the Chinese for every price hike on NYMEX... then turning around and pointing the finger at greedy bankers every time things dip... makes you wonder if we’re all just looking at clouds. 😉
Gold: Past, Present, and Future in Other Investment Types ·
If you're gonna talk to yourself about when you're heading out... at least let me know when you're back inside 😁
Gold: Past, Present, and Future in Other Investment Types ·
Gold’s been sliding for a whole year now...

image
Gold: Past, Present, and Future in Other Investment Types ·
quiettrucker12 said:We’re looking at two critical levels here. First up, the 10-day moving average sits at 1584. Then there's the June 28th floor at 1547. If that jobs report comes in hot, I doubt the first level will hold. But if things soften and we break that second one? Gold is in serious trouble. Bottom line: staying above 1547 is the goal right now.

That first level is already busted today... if things keep going this way, that second one might go next week!
Gold: Past, Present, and Future in Other Investment Types ·
A year ago, news like this would've sent gold skyrocketing at least $50 in a single day... but today? It’s just tanking.
Gold: Past, Present, and Future in Other Investment Types ·
If you look at how previous summits have played out... nothing's gonna happen. Gold isn't going to react to some insignificant meeting.
Gold: Past, Present, and Future in Other Investment Types ·
Man, if the Treasury Secretary heard you guys... you aren't even paying your taxes, yet here you are giving tips on how to dodge them 😬
Gold: Past, Present, and Future in Other Investment Types ·
Paul Peterson4 said:Man, what a presentation. This guy’s basically assuming we’re heading straight toward nationalizing the banks and banning CDSs and put options. What a total disaster—yeah, right.
According to his logic, we’d be regressing about 3,000 years back into the Stone Age.
He seems to conveniently forget a few things:
1. Banks have massive political clout. They’ve been "bailed out," "recapitalized," and "restructured" more times than I can count—and honestly, they’ll just do it again.
2. The whole crisis was fueled by the banks themselves and the kind of speculation that’s now driving interest rates on sovereign debt to absolutely insane levels. A primary offering would be a hell of a lot better than this current scam.
3. The modern economic system is becoming a complete joke. It’s just concentrating wealth in the hands of the top 0.1% while everyone else gets squeezed dry. You can't keep doing that forever—it’s essentially cannibalizing its own customer base.

As for gold, I assume it’ll climb during the crisis—specifically, when they start pumping more money into the system through further QE. People expect gold and silver to hold their value and rally every time there's a stimulus. Personally, though, I’m expecting a much bigger move if we see a bank run on precious metal funds that don't actually hold any physical bullion.

The world isn't going to collapse like he predicts... but once things really heat up, primary issuance will solve all the debtors' problems.😁
...and we've seen that play out firsthand in our old country. 😍
If the creditors end up getting screwed, that's on them... clearly they didn't look up what "sovereign" actually means in a dictionary.🙂
Gold: Past, Present, and Future in Other Investment Types ·
ironstag8 said:You've hit the nail on the head. If you haven't noticed by now, you're winning with silver and gold while losing with paper assets. Now, if you want to speculate, go ahead. Buy, sell, play with fire... do whatever you like. It’s not my priority, nor do I have any grand ambition to become a billionaire. I make enough to live a perfectly decent life and continue building my precious metal stash. If you can't see that we are living through incredibly volatile times for managing money, then please, let the unfolding reality convince you rather than me.

And hey, thanks for worrying about my wallet, but I honestly believe it's the people who refuse to see the absolute mess we're currently in who are going to get burned.

Didn't miss anything... You just picked a moment when buying silver in USD was a steal, so obviously that looks profitable.
I'm talking about a different window—a time when silver was overpriced. Anyone who bought then? They've been underwater for 30+ years compared to someone who grabbed paper back then.
It’s all about timing... even paper can be a solid play depending on when you jump in. 😉

ironstag8 said:You've hit the nail on the head. If you haven't noticed by now, you're winning with silver and gold while losing with paper assets. Now, if you want to speculate, go ahead. Buy, sell, play with fire... do whatever you like. It’s not my priority, nor do I have any grand ambition to become a billionaire. I make enough to live a perfectly decent life and continue building my precious metal stash. If you can't see that we are living through incredibly volatile times for managing money, then please, let the unfolding reality convince you rather than me.

And hey, thanks for worrying about my wallet, but I honestly believe it's the people who refuse to see the absolute mess we're currently in who are going to get burned.

Fair enough... It's rough, yeah, but this isn't the first crisis and it won't be the last...
Then again, maybe now is actually the perfect time to play the game. 😍

ironstag8 said:You've hit the nail on the head. If you haven't noticed by now, you're winning with silver and gold while losing with paper assets. Now, if you want to speculate, go ahead. Buy, sell, play with fire... do whatever you like. It’s not my priority, nor do I have any grand ambition to become a billionaire. I make enough to live a perfectly decent life and continue building my precious metal stash. If you can't see that we are living through incredibly volatile times for managing money, then please, let the unfolding reality convince you rather than me.

And hey, thanks for worrying about my wallet, but I honestly believe it's the people who refuse to see the absolute mess we're currently in who are going to get burned.

A lot of people are gonna get hit—those who see it coming and those who don't... just some more than others...

Good luck with your investments, ironstag8. All the best... 👋
Gold: Past, Present, and Future in Other Investment Types ·
ironstag8 said:Francisco, you completely bypassed that second image I posted—the one that actually provides the direct answer to what you’re arguing here right now.
In a financial setup where money is treated just like any other commodity, it’s only logical that the amount of paper you receive in exchange for gold or silver fluctuates. The real issue is that the entire system is terminally ill—and part of that sickness stems from this flawed idea that precious metals aren't true money (especially when you factor in deficits, endless money printing, fractional reserve banking, and the cozy, unhealthy relationship between politicians and big banks...)
We simply hold a fundamentally different perspective on all of this, and honestly, only time will tell who's actually right.

My bad... didn't realize you already asked about that one! About that photo? Honestly, I think the smart move was the guy who bought silver in '64, dumped it for $50/oz in 1980, 😉 then waited three years to buy that same silver back at $5/oz and held it until today... 😁

Same goes for whoever bought silver at $50/oz back in the 80s (worth $141/oz today, maybe even $10,000 based on some crazy shadow price 😁)... They probably learned their lesson and won't touch base metals ever again. 😁

image

Just gotta be realistic. Everything is a commodity, even cash. You just need to know when to swap one asset for another. Some people nail it, some don't. Getting tunnel vision, ignoring everyone else, and looking for excuses from higher powers? Doesn't get anyone anywhere.
I enjoy reading your stuff on these boards and I'd love to see you make bank trading metals... but if you just stay stubborn and keep buying without thinking, you could wreck your savings just like those folks back in the early 80s.
Gold: Past, Present, and Future in Other Investment Types ·
ironstag8 said:No problems with food? 😵
Oil is hitting $100 because the dollar is losing its value.
By your logic, we're headed for a long-term decline in living standards since wages can't keep pace with progress. If that's the case, who is all this progress actually for? 🤷 Isn't there something fundamentally broken in a world like that (besides the financial system)?

Where did that bolded part come from? And how do you think I earned enough to buy my Quincy? By speculating and sitting on the couch? I put in work to afford the Quincy. Investing hard-earned labor into paper that constantly loses value is a risky gamble—one that's only going to get even more obvious in the near future.

Oh, really? 😁 What if oil is at $100 because production has been flat for years while demand just keeps climbing? What happens if they suddenly ramp up supply today... does the dollar get stronger or does oil lose value? 🙂

ironstag8 said:No problems with food? 😵
Oil is hitting $100 because the dollar is losing its value.
By your logic, we're headed for a long-term decline in living standards since wages can't keep pace with progress. If that's the case, who is all this progress actually for? 🤷 Isn't there something fundamentally broken in a world like that (besides the financial system)?

Where did that bolded part come from? And how do you think I earned enough to buy my Quincy? By speculating and sitting on the couch? I put in work to afford the Quincy. Investing hard-earned labor into paper that constantly loses value is a risky gamble—one that's only going to get even more obvious in the near future.

Look at it this way. You start working in 1995 in an American economy ranked somewhere around 80th in development... 30 years later, the US somehow climbs to 20th in the world... and you expect your average wage from 1995 to hold the exact same weight as an average wage in 2025 just because you parked it in the PM? I don't see any "preserving value" there—just massive inflation of value. If the PM were truly just preserving the value of your labor, then for that PM, you'd only get exactly what an average worker in a country with the same development as the US in 1995 would earn today... so you'd be broke.
Or, if the US today is basically like some random Swiss economy back in 1964 😍, then it's logical to expect we live at their 1964 standard with those old wages... and the Swiss guy who saved his pay in 1964 and now finds it's worth only what an American makes today... he's screwed. 😍

On the flip side, given the rising demand for gold and silver—one for speculation and the other for industrial use—it makes sense that value increases for these metals due to limited supply and high demand. So expecting even more value in the future is logical. But once the speculative bubble pops and things shift elsewhere, like happened in the 80s and lasted through the 90s, expect a drop in value for one simple reason: lower demand. 😍

Look, nothing in this world actually holds its value forever. There's no such thing. It's all just assets—some go up, some go down. It really just comes down to how good you are at jumping from one to the next. You can make a killing, or you can get burned. 😉

...and if you're looking for something where you can actually trust that your investment won't tank? Focus on the spiritual side of things. 🙂

Man, I'm way too high on this forum... and my paper is due on the 11th. 😵
Gold: Past, Present, and Future in Other Investment Types ·
ironstag8 said:Let's say you have a point regarding certain aspects of cars (though, honestly, those vintage bodies in Miami and Cuba seem pretty sturdy considering they're from the 40s and 50s). Just look at refrigerators or even vacuum cleaners; things used to last 20 or 30 years, whereas nowadays, they're practically designed to last only as long as the warranty expires.
I don't want this to spiral into a complete tangent, but please don't try to inject your desire for consumerism and living beyond one's means into this debate. That exact impulse—wanting more than what is sustainable—is precisely what drives inflation and eventual ruin.
Sure, you could argue that milk is higher quality now, or that groceries are better. I’d argue the opposite—that food quality has actually dipped. And are houses being built with space-age materials these days? Not really.

Go ahead and comment on the second photo since there aren't any cars in it. Give it a shot, you skeptic.

Sure, we can talk without the car. Take milk... back when we used to get milk in bags, every single time it was some sour mess with a 2-3 day shelf life without being tested for a million diseases. We don't have those problems today... 😉

You can say anything about food quality. Organic farming costs money, and clearly people aren't willing to pay for it, so they buy cheap, low-quality junk... It wouldn't have been a loss if people actually bought his produce for $3.25 and paid $67 for a pound of Gouda. On the flip side, the biggest input for food production and everything else is oil, which used to be $3 and now it's nearly $100... and that, along with other energy costs, is the main reason for the price hikes we deal with every day.

Modern washing machines actually cost way less than before—back 20 or 30 years ago, you had to work much harder than the average 10 days (price of a washer divided by average salary) just to afford one... But then again, if you want quality, you have to be ready to pay for it, and obviously (be sure you aren't getting sold junk meant for emerging markets), you get all the bells and whistles: tons of programs, less ruined clothes, timers, lower electricity and water usage... damn, all that stuff costs money!

You mentioned childbirth costs earlier too... What was the infant mortality rate in 1964 versus today? Dammit, that costs money too... A woman could give birth at home for nothing with huge risks, like it used to be. We could do that with everything else, but we'd be drifting too far into off-topic territory...

ironstag8 said:Nice one, Silver. At first glance, I didn't realize you were essentially arguing against yourself. It seems technological advancement hasn't been matched by a corresponding jump in wages that would actually reflect an improved quality of life. So, we have progress everywhere—except, apparently, when it comes to our actual take-home pay.

Aha, so technological progress and rising standards just happen for free? Like they just show up out of nowhere? You think you'll get that for nothing just by keeping the Quincy under your bed? How could you think 😁
If you think you can earn money just by holding onto something—in this case, the Quincy—without putting in extra work, then you're a speculator just like anyone investing in real estate, stocks, funds, savings, or forex... Don't kid yourself thinking you just want to preserve the value of your labor, because you want more than that.😉
Gold: Past, Present, and Future in Other Investment Types ·
ironstag8 said:I’d like to offer a response to Shadow regarding the decline of the American standard of living since the demonetization of silver back in 1964. Even though our main focus here is gold, allow me to use the history of silver as a lens to illustrate this broader point.
To set the stage, President Johnson made a rather "eloquent" decision—and followed it up with an equally eloquent statement:
If anybody has any idea of hoarding our silver coins, let me say this. Treasury has a lot of silver on hand, and it can be, and it will be used to keep the price of silver in line with its value in our present silver coin. There will be no profit in holding them out of circulation for the value of their silver content

He essentially believed that a silver dollar and a fiat dollar were interchangeable, assuming the government could simply maintain that parity as long as those old silver coins remained in circulation.
Honestly, looking back, you have to wonder who was foolish enough to buy into that nonsense.
image'] [/URL] image
So, if we look at the landscape in 1964—average home prices, cars, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, postage stamps, tuition for a decent university, natural birth costs, average wages, a gallon of milk, a gallon of gas—we can see the trajectory.
Below are the figures from 2012. I've included both the raw increase and the percentage. You'll notice that while wages grew by 766%, almost everything else—except perhaps milk—skyrocketed far beyond that.
It’s particularly striking to observe the surge in college tuition. A student in '64 paid a fraction of what people pay today, yet they walked into much better-paying careers. Today, students are crushed under mountains of debt, forced to pay exorbitant fees—artificially inflated by universities, driven by a mindset similar to that of bankers or the intellectual elite—only to end up in lower-paying roles (assuming they even find work).

Let’s follow the thread through the prism of silver. President Johnson claimed there was no point in collecting silver coins because they would retain their value. First, let's compare how many ounces of silver a dollar bought in '64 versus how much it buys today. If the sheer absurdity of Johnson’s logic—and the logic of anyone distancing themselves from real money in favor of paper—isn't obvious from these numbers, then I don't know what else to say. We also see that tuition has outpaced nearly everything else. Some might argue this doesn't impact the standard of living, but 😵that's a stretch. Just as a side note: in the '50s, a single income was often enough to support a large family; nowadays, even two incomes frequently fall short.

Now, let's look at the outcome for those gambling on paper versus those holding real money.
image'] [/URL] image
Suppose someone decided in 1964 to set aside $10,000—either in paper currency or in silver (which would have been about 7,150 ounces).
If the picture isn't clear: the paper lost 95% of its value. Let me break that down further. Inflation and the decoupling from gold and silver lead directly to a drop in the standard of living and purchasing power. Wage growth simply cannot keep pace with the rising cost of everything else.
Keep in mind, these figures are based on official inflation statistics. And if you want to know how truthful those numbers really are, just look at how they conveniently exclude the massive spikes in energy and food costs. If we used actual, real-world inflation metrics, the result for those holding paper would be even more catastrophic.
The question for Johnson and his contemporaries remains: was it actually worth holding onto those silver dollars from '64, or should they have just stuck with the paper dollar?

ironstag8, you're straight up ignoring a massive factor here—the sheer jump in standards from 1964 to 2012...
Look, say you buy the cheapest base-model Ford today, zero bells or whistles, weakest engine possible... that car is still gonna blow an average ride from 1964 out of the water, let alone compete with the luxury models back then...

What you're actually looking for is this: take 20 average salaries from 1964, what it took to buy an typical car back then... and expect that same amount of money (your purchasing power) to buy a typical car in 2012. It just isn't happening... 🙂
You'd want all the upgrades, right? A much better, more reliable engine, better bodywork, safety features, comfort, a warranty... all because you think having the purchasing power makes it equal? 😁
Gold: Past, Present, and Future in Other Investment Types ·
Are we back to talking about cartels again?
...or is demand just spiking so hard that the market finally outpaced them? 😁
Gold: Past, Present, and Future in Other Investment Types ·
🤣

@crimsonranger38,
man, you just don't quit... 😁