Posts by quiettrucker12

Stop trying to link gold and inflation so tightly. It’s obvious that gold jumping from $250 to $1,577 during this Goldman Sachs market—that's a 6.3x increase—has nothing to do with inflation. Why is it so hard to grasp that a bull market is just a bull market? Maybe this one is slightly larger than what we've seen before, but you can probably chalk that up to how much politicians love delaying any kind of actual pain. We can call the periods where gold spikes "inflationary," sure, but it doesn't really have anything to do with actual inflation or hyperinflation. Bull markets end in a parabola, so I doubt this one will be the exception. A bull will always find some excuse to rally.

Charles, what’s your take on this recent currency turbulence (at least, that's how it looks to me)? I feel like currencies—not economic fundamentals or even debt—are what everything is revolving around right now. The answer to how the next 5 or 6 years play out lies in the currency game.

The Goldman Sachs bull isn't some paper game like everything else because it's tied directly to the physical market. Central banks are buying gold, and that physical demand acts like a constant pilot light under gold prices, especially since the general public hasn't really jumped into the fray yet. I highly doubt central banks are buying out of fear of inflation; it feels more like they're grabbing starting positions. But starting positions for what?

rustyseal5 said:Look, I’m not trying to lecture you. I’m just giving you the straight truth on how things used to be versus how they are right now.

I’ve been crunching the numbers, and I've come to a pretty blunt conclusion: this round of QE kicked off right when oil prices were hitting their absolute peak. It's hard to ignore that correlation.

Honestly, I don't see why anyone is making such a big deal out of this. It’s trivial. If we were talking about a massive 10% or 20% swing, then maybe we’d have something to discuss, but we're talking about a difference of a few bucks here. A few dollars! Give me a break. Besides, looking at the oil markets, I just don't see any way prices are hitting $110 in the next year, let alone touching those legendary $150 peaks everyone keeps obsessing over. It’s just not happening. Oil fluctuates, sure—it’s always bouncing around—but if you look at the last five years, it’s mostly just been idling between $90 and $110. It stays in that lane. Period.

Look, here’s how I see it. If we get hit with another round of QE, oil prices are going to spike. It’s happened every single time we've seen this kind of stimulus before. Once those energy costs climb, they’re going to put massive pressure on an already fragile economy, eventually forcing us straight into a recession and tanking demand. At that point, QE stops being a magic wand and just stops working altogether. So, what happens then? Is this actually the start of the massive bull market everyone is currently shouting about, or are we all just witnessing one final, desperate bear market rally?

Look, when you step back and look at monetary policy through a macro lens, we’ve clearly hit a wall. We're reaching the absolute limits of what can actually be done. But? If you shift your perspective toward the stock market, those boundaries basically vanish. There is no ceiling. As long as the Federal Reserve decides they want to print money, they can. They’ll keep pumping liquidity into the system just to keep the stock market from ever seeing a real collapse. It's a rigged game, plain and simple.

Yeah, gold is totally undervalued right now. Honestly, the stock market is only staying on life support because of constant QE. It’s artificial.

How is this even possible? Gold is up 60%—and don't even get me started on inflation, because that definitely isn't the reason here—yet the stock market is sitting at a measly 14% gain. We’re talking about corporate earnings hitting historic highs right now. It makes zero sense.

I don't get this.

I’m talking about corporate profits hitting levels we have never seen before. Seriously, they're at historic highs. They’ve never been this bloated.

Look, you can throw around numbers like $145 or that $34 mark from back in 2008 all day long, but honestly? It’s useless. You aren't going to draw any intelligent conclusions from them. That specific growth spurt was its own freak occurrence within the commodity bull market—a total outlier. And that crash down to $34 right after? Just as much of a one-off. Comparing it to anything else today is just bad math.

😕

Quote:
Back then, you guys called $150 oil "inflation." Now, suddenly, $90 oil is also "inflation" caused by reckless money printing. You just move the goalposts whenever it suits your narrative.

Yeah, right. Like I’m actually in a position to manipulate the price of gold.

I was talking about the context of your posts. 😁

Way back in October 2011, I mentioned we were looking at at least a year of consolidation for gold. Look, I'm not big on manipulation theories, but in November 2013, there was this low-volume after-hours attack on gold right when it should have been breaking out. It dragged out the consolidation, sure, but there's no way that stopped a bull market that's been running for 12 years straight.

That has absolutely nothing to do with the fundamentals that have driven gold prices since the beginning of time. Based on actual fundamentals, gold has a specific value. It doesn't go higher than $1,800.

Right now? Given the massive debt levels, it’s definitely headed up in the long run—but let's be honest, we'll all be dead by then anyway.

What most gold bugs dream about is some grand conspiracy where they manipulate gold to prevent the total collapse of our monetary system. It’s pure idiocy. I honestly don't understand how someone with even average cognitive abilities can swallow such nonsense and base an entire investment strategy on it.

Usually, this kind of frustrated tone on the forums is a reliable indicator that gold has hit bottom or is very close to it.

The only people who are frustrated are the ones who bought in eighteen months ago and are currently sitting on losses. They bought in because they listened to the amateurs posting on this thread. One amateur reads another amateur, buys in, and suddenly their "short-term trade" becomes a "long-term investment" out of pure necessity. 😁

It’s unlikely they bought because of this forum. I explicitly called out when the correction would start back in 2011. Every single "buy silver" recommendation happened when it was sitting at $28. If gold tanks below roughly $1,490, then maybe I'll rethink my stance. COT reports show commercial players have record-low short positions while speculators are hitting record highs. $bpgdm is flirting with record lows, $hui is hugging the 2000-2008-2013 trendline, and sentiment is at an all-time low—lower than even 2008. Meanwhile, a massive wave of retail investors is piling into stocks expecting eternal growth, which is usually a sign the top is near. It's fundamentally similar to what we saw with gold in 2011, except in my view, the stock market is in a secular bear while gold is in a secular bull. So, anyone who bought gold at, say, $1,850 will likely be back to break-even very soon. On another note, I totally agree that we won't see another 2008-style crash because they have QE to cushion the fall when things move. Ben has pulled off plenty with QE, but there's no way he can reverse a secular bear in the stock market, let alone stop a secular bull in gold.

What’s stalling the gold bull market right now are the whispers about potentially ending QE. Once everyone finally realizes that stopping the printing presses isn't actually an option, the gold bull will reignite. The only thing that might convince politicians to stop printing is a spike in inflation—like soaring oil prices—or reaching a point where stopping the printing hurts more than continuing it.

rustyseal5 said:Look, if you compare where we were in the fall of 2008 to where we are now, a year later, things are incomparably better today. Besides, the debt growth isn't even that extreme. The financial crisis the US went through was nothing compared to what other countries had to stomach. Americans got off relatively easy.

With every round of QE, our starting price gets higher—this time it's $85. If it escapes to $150 again, they won't stand a chance at avoiding a recession.

Right now, oil is sitting at $90, which is basically where it was back in late 2010. If you want to play games with numbers and manipulate data, sure, this chart might work for you. But look at the actual oil market: prices have been swinging up and down for five years straight.

And it’ll stay that way. It’s obvious that despite all the massive money printing, the global economy can't sustain oil above $100 without demand cratering, which brings the price right back down.

So, over 5 years, gold is up 60% and the stock market is up 14%.

Between March 2013 and March 2018, we'll see who's right.

So, we've reached the conclusion that the stock market grew by a whopping 14% while we were all still breathing. Wow. No bubble there, right? Meanwhile, gold is up 60%, so according to your logic, gold is undervalued and the stock market is overpriced.

How is that even possible when earnings per share are higher today than they were four years ago?

How does that work if prices haven't surged that much? Look, if you really want to manipulate the narrative, go check what things like wheat or gold were worth in the summer of 2008 versus today.

Plus, you completely ignored the most important part of my quote.

For five years, we've been hearing from the same group of people about how everything not tied to gold is headed for a total collapse.

Are you intentionally manipulating the truth the same way you manipulate the gold data?

When eight months pass and absolutely nothing happens, will you finally admit you don't know anything and stop posting these endless "forecasts" of yours? 😁

So, it’s all just smoke and mirrors after all?

rustyseal5 said:Look, if you compare where we were in the fall of 2008 to where we are now, a year later, things are incomparably better today. Besides, the debt growth isn't even that extreme. The financial crisis the US went through was nothing compared to what other countries had to stomach. Americans got off relatively easy.

With every round of QE, our starting price gets higher—this time it's $85. If it escapes to $150 again, they won't stand a chance at avoiding a recession.

Right now, oil is sitting at $90, which is basically where it was back in late 2010. If you want to play games with numbers and manipulate data, sure, this chart might work for you. But look at the actual oil market: prices have been swinging up and down for five years straight.

And it’ll stay that way. It’s obvious that despite all the massive money printing, the global economy can't sustain oil above $100 without demand cratering, which brings the price right back down.

So, over 5 years, gold is up 60% and the stock market is up 14%.

Between March 2013 and March 2018, we'll see who's right.

So, we've reached the conclusion that the stock market grew by a whopping 14% while we were all still breathing. Wow. No bubble there, right? Meanwhile, gold is up 60%, so according to your logic, gold is undervalued and the stock market is overpriced.

How is that even possible when earnings per share are higher today than they were four years ago?

How does that work if prices haven't surged that much? Look, if you really want to manipulate the narrative, go check what things like wheat or gold were worth in the summer of 2008 versus today.

Plus, you completely ignored the most important part of my quote.

For five years, we've been hearing from the same group of people about how everything not tied to gold is headed for a total collapse.

Are you intentionally manipulating the truth the same way you manipulate the gold data?

When eight months pass and absolutely nothing happens, will you finally admit you don't know anything and stop posting these endless "forecasts" of yours? 😁

I’ve noticed that this round of QE kicked off right when oil prices were hitting their absolute peak.

rustyseal5 said:Look, if you compare where we were in the fall of 2008 to where we are now, a year later, things are incomparably better today. Besides, the debt growth isn't even that extreme. The financial crisis the US went through was nothing compared to what other countries had to stomach. Americans got off relatively easy.

With every round of QE, our starting price gets higher—this time it's $85. If it escapes to $150 again, they won't stand a chance at avoiding a recession.

Right now, oil is sitting at $90, which is basically where it was back in late 2010. If you want to play games with numbers and manipulate data, sure, this chart might work for you. But look at the actual oil market: prices have been swinging up and down for five years straight.

And it’ll stay that way. It’s obvious that despite all the massive money printing, the global economy can't sustain oil above $100 without demand cratering, which brings the price right back down.

So, over 5 years, gold is up 60% and the stock market is up 14%.

Between March 2013 and March 2018, we'll see who's right.

So, we've reached the conclusion that the stock market grew by a whopping 14% while we were all still breathing. Wow. No bubble there, right? Meanwhile, gold is up 60%, so according to your logic, gold is undervalued and the stock market is overpriced.

How is that even possible when earnings per share are higher today than they were four years ago?

How does that work if prices haven't surged that much? Look, if you really want to manipulate the narrative, go check what things like wheat or gold were worth in the summer of 2008 versus today.

Plus, you completely ignored the most important part of my quote.

For five years, we've been hearing from the same group of people about how everything not tied to gold is headed for a total collapse.

Are you intentionally manipulating the truth the same way you manipulate the gold data?

When eight months pass and absolutely nothing happens, will you finally admit you don't know anything and stop posting these endless "forecasts" of yours? 😁

Here’s the deal: if QE kicks in and drives up oil prices—which, let's face it, has happened every single time we've seen QE so far—it’s going to put massive pressure on an already fragile economy. We'll likely see a slide into recession and a sharp drop in demand. Once that happens, QE loses its magic. So, what then? Are we actually looking at the start of the bull market everyone is currently hyping up, or is this just a final, desperate bear market rally?

rustyseal5 said:Look, if you compare where we were in the fall of 2008 to where we are now, a year later, things are incomparably better today. Besides, the debt growth isn't even that extreme. The financial crisis the US went through was nothing compared to what other countries had to stomach. Americans got off relatively easy.

With every round of QE, our starting price gets higher—this time it's $85. If it escapes to $150 again, they won't stand a chance at avoiding a recession.

Right now, oil is sitting at $90, which is basically where it was back in late 2010. If you want to play games with numbers and manipulate data, sure, this chart might work for you. But look at the actual oil market: prices have been swinging up and down for five years straight.

And it’ll stay that way. It’s obvious that despite all the massive money printing, the global economy can't sustain oil above $100 without demand cratering, which brings the price right back down.

So, over 5 years, gold is up 60% and the stock market is up 14%.

Between March 2013 and March 2018, we'll see who's right.

So, we've reached the conclusion that the stock market grew by a whopping 14% while we were all still breathing. Wow. No bubble there, right? Meanwhile, gold is up 60%, so according to your logic, gold is undervalued and the stock market is overpriced.

How is that even possible when earnings per share are higher today than they were four years ago?

How does that work if prices haven't surged that much? Look, if you really want to manipulate the narrative, go check what things like wheat or gold were worth in the summer of 2008 versus today.

Plus, you completely ignored the most important part of my quote.

For five years, we've been hearing from the same group of people about how everything not tied to gold is headed for a total collapse.

Are you intentionally manipulating the truth the same way you manipulate the gold data?

When eight months pass and absolutely nothing happens, will you finally admit you don't know anything and stop posting these endless "forecasts" of yours? 😁

Yeah, gold is definitely undervalued right now. As for the stock market? It’s basically being kept on life support by QE.

rustyseal5 said:Look, if you compare where we were in the fall of 2008 to where we are now, a year later, things are incomparably better today. Besides, the debt growth isn't even that extreme. The financial crisis the US went through was nothing compared to what other countries had to stomach. Americans got off relatively easy.

With every round of QE, our starting price gets higher—this time it's $85. If it escapes to $150 again, they won't stand a chance at avoiding a recession.

Right now, oil is sitting at $90, which is basically where it was back in late 2010. If you want to play games with numbers and manipulate data, sure, this chart might work for you. But look at the actual oil market: prices have been swinging up and down for five years straight.

And it’ll stay that way. It’s obvious that despite all the massive money printing, the global economy can't sustain oil above $100 without demand cratering, which brings the price right back down.

So, over 5 years, gold is up 60% and the stock market is up 14%.

Between March 2013 and March 2018, we'll see who's right.

So, we've reached the conclusion that the stock market grew by a whopping 14% while we were all still breathing. Wow. No bubble there, right? Meanwhile, gold is up 60%, so according to your logic, gold is undervalued and the stock market is overpriced.

How is that even possible when earnings per share are higher today than they were four years ago?

How does that work if prices haven't surged that much? Look, if you really want to manipulate the narrative, go check what things like wheat or gold were worth in the summer of 2008 versus today.

Plus, you completely ignored the most important part of my quote.

For five years, we've been hearing from the same group of people about how everything not tied to gold is headed for a total collapse.

Are you intentionally manipulating the truth the same way you manipulate the gold data?

When eight months pass and absolutely nothing happens, will you finally admit you don't know anything and stop posting these endless "forecasts" of yours? 😁

I don't get this.

rustyseal5 said:Look, if you compare where we were in the fall of 2008 to where we are now, a year later, things are incomparably better today. Besides, the debt growth isn't even that extreme. The financial crisis the US went through was nothing compared to what other countries had to stomach. Americans got off relatively easy.

With every round of QE, our starting price gets higher—this time it's $85. If it escapes to $150 again, they won't stand a chance at avoiding a recession.

Right now, oil is sitting at $90, which is basically where it was back in late 2010. If you want to play games with numbers and manipulate data, sure, this chart might work for you. But look at the actual oil market: prices have been swinging up and down for five years straight.

And it’ll stay that way. It’s obvious that despite all the massive money printing, the global economy can't sustain oil above $100 without demand cratering, which brings the price right back down.

So, over 5 years, gold is up 60% and the stock market is up 14%.

Between March 2013 and March 2018, we'll see who's right.

So, we've reached the conclusion that the stock market grew by a whopping 14% while we were all still breathing. Wow. No bubble there, right? Meanwhile, gold is up 60%, so according to your logic, gold is undervalued and the stock market is overpriced.

How is that even possible when earnings per share are higher today than they were four years ago?

How does that work if prices haven't surged that much? Look, if you really want to manipulate the narrative, go check what things like wheat or gold were worth in the summer of 2008 versus today.

Plus, you completely ignored the most important part of my quote.

For five years, we've been hearing from the same group of people about how everything not tied to gold is headed for a total collapse.

Are you intentionally manipulating the truth the same way you manipulate the gold data?

When eight months pass and absolutely nothing happens, will you finally admit you don't know anything and stop posting these endless "forecasts" of yours? 😁

rustyseal5 said:Look, if you compare where we were in the fall of 2008 to where we are now, a year later, things are incomparably better today. Besides, the debt growth isn't even that extreme. The financial crisis the US went through was nothing compared to what other countries had to stomach. Americans got off relatively easy.

With every round of QE, our starting price gets higher—this time it's $85. If it escapes to $150 again, they won't stand a chance at avoiding a recession.

Right now, oil is sitting at $90, which is basically where it was back in late 2010. If you want to play games with numbers and manipulate data, sure, this chart might work for you. But look at the actual oil market: prices have been swinging up and down for five years straight.

And it’ll stay that way. It’s obvious that despite all the massive money printing, the global economy can't sustain oil above $100 without demand cratering, which brings the price right back down.

So, over 5 years, gold is up 60% and the stock market is up 14%.

Between March 2013 and March 2018, we'll see who's right.

So, we've reached the conclusion that the stock market grew by a whopping 14% while we were all still breathing. Wow. No bubble there, right? Meanwhile, gold is up 60%, so according to your logic, gold is undervalued and the stock market is overpriced.

How is that even possible when earnings per share are higher today than they were four years ago?

How does that work if prices haven't surged that much? Look, if you really want to manipulate the narrative, go check what things like wheat or gold were worth in the summer of 2008 versus today.

Plus, you completely ignored the most important part of my quote.

For five years, we've been hearing from the same group of people about how everything not tied to gold is headed for a total collapse.

Are you intentionally manipulating the truth the same way you manipulate the gold data?

When eight months pass and absolutely nothing happens, will you finally admit you don't know anything and stop posting these endless "forecasts" of yours? 😁

Neither $145 nor that $34 from 2008 are useful data points for drawing smart conclusions. That growth was a specific outlier during the commodity bull run, just like the drop to roughly $34 afterward.

rustyseal5 said:Look, if you compare where we were in the fall of 2008 to where we are now, a year later, things are incomparably better today. Besides, the debt growth isn't even that extreme. The financial crisis the US went through was nothing compared to what other countries had to stomach. Americans got off relatively easy.

With every round of QE, our starting price gets higher—this time it's $85. If it escapes to $150 again, they won't stand a chance at avoiding a recession.

Right now, oil is sitting at $90, which is basically where it was back in late 2010. If you want to play games with numbers and manipulate data, sure, this chart might work for you. But look at the actual oil market: prices have been swinging up and down for five years straight.

And it’ll stay that way. It’s obvious that despite all the massive money printing, the global economy can't sustain oil above $100 without demand cratering, which brings the price right back down.

So, over 5 years, gold is up 60% and the stock market is up 14%.

Between March 2013 and March 2018, we'll see who's right.

So, we've reached the conclusion that the stock market grew by a whopping 14% while we were all still breathing. Wow. No bubble there, right? Meanwhile, gold is up 60%, so according to your logic, gold is undervalued and the stock market is overpriced.

How is that even possible when earnings per share are higher today than they were four years ago?

How does that work if prices haven't surged that much? Look, if you really want to manipulate the narrative, go check what things like wheat or gold were worth in the summer of 2008 versus today.

Plus, you completely ignored the most important part of my quote.

For five years, we've been hearing from the same group of people about how everything not tied to gold is headed for a total collapse.

Are you intentionally manipulating the truth the same way you manipulate the gold data?

When eight months pass and absolutely nothing happens, will you finally admit you don't know anything and stop posting these endless "forecasts" of yours? 😁

Yeah, right. If I actually had the power to manipulate gold... 😁

Back in October 2011, I already called it—said we’d see at least a year of consolidation for gold. I’m not big on manipulation theories, but in November 2013, there was a low-volume attack on gold during after-hours trading right when it should have been moving up. It dragged out the consolidation, sure, but there's no way it stops a bull market that's been running for 12 years.

gold bull

Honestly, this kind of frustrated, whiny tone on the forums is usually a reliable sign that gold is hitting bottom.

rustyseal5 said:

I can't believe I'm even seeing this here. It’s honestly exhausting. Every single time someone tries to bring up these points, we end up right back in the same loop. I remember sitting in a diner outside of Chicago last winter, watching some guy argue about the exact same nonsense with a waitress who clearly didn't care, and it hit me then—this is just how people operate. They want the argument more than they want the truth. It’s repetitive. It’s tedious. And frankly, it’s a waste of everyone's time. We need to move past this if we ever want to actually get somewhere. kaže:
Five years? Seriously?

Yeah, five years straight!

For five years straight, we’ve been hearing the same tired script from the same group of people: that everything not tied to gold is headed for a total meltdown. It’s always the same story. They predict the collapse, they point at the markets, they wait for the sky to fall, and yet, here we are. Still waiting.Gold is surging. It’s happening.

Five years down, and we’re stuck listening to the same nonsense for another five. Honestly, I'm exhausted.

Look, I’ve been bullish on the stock market for a while now, but let's be clear: it isn't because of the fundamentals. The market is stuck in a massive secular bear trend. My conviction comes down to one thing: my absolute faith in Ben’s willingness to just start printing money whenever he feels like it.

A good chunk of this comes down to the money printing, sure, but you also can't ignore how much better things look compared to that absolute disaster back in the fall of 2008. It's a different game entirely.

You really think the stock market wouldn't have imploded long ago if they weren't printing money like there's no tomorrow? Honestly, look at the numbers. It’s all a house of cards held together by the Fed's endless supply of freshly inked paper. Without that constant injection of liquidity, the whole thing would be hitting the floor right about now. I mean, just look at what happened during the last few scares—without those massive stimulus rounds, we'd be staring at a total meltdown. It's a rigged game, plain and simple.

I don't think so. It would definitely take a massive hit—no doubt about that—but it wouldn't trigger a total collapse.

We’ve become completely addicted to printing money. It’s a cycle that never ends. Can we actually just keep hitting that "print" button forever without oil prices absolutely skyrocketing? I mean, think about it. Every time the Fed starts pumping more liquidity into the system, everything gets squeezed. You can't just manufacture value out of thin air indefinitely without eventually hitting a wall where energy costs catch up to you. It feels like we're running a race on a treadmill that's accelerating, and we're all just praying the belt doesn't snap.

Look, we’ve been watching oil prices dance around for four years now. It goes up, it crashes, it climbs back up again—it’s a constant cycle. But let’s be real: we're mostly just hovering between $90 and $110 a barrel. That is nowhere near the $150 madness we saw back in the summer of 2008. We aren't even in the same ballpark.

Is it actually better, or just "better" for the sake of endless rounds of QE (1+2+3...)? Basically, is it significantly worse?

Take a look at the debt levels in 2008 versus 2012:

US debt

rustyseal5 said:

I can't believe I'm even seeing this here. It’s honestly exhausting. Every single time someone tries to bring up these points, we end up right back in the same loop. I remember sitting in a diner outside of Chicago last winter, watching some guy argue about the exact same nonsense with a waitress who clearly didn't care, and it hit me then—this is just how people operate. They want the argument more than they want the truth. It’s repetitive. It’s tedious. And frankly, it’s a waste of everyone's time. We need to move past this if we ever want to actually get somewhere. kaže:
Five years? Seriously?

Yeah, five years straight!

For five years straight, we’ve been hearing the same tired script from the same group of people: that everything not tied to gold is headed for a total meltdown. It’s always the same story. They predict the collapse, they point at the markets, they wait for the sky to fall, and yet, here we are. Still waiting.Gold is surging. It’s happening.

Five years down, and we’re stuck listening to the same nonsense for another five. Honestly, I'm exhausted.

Look, I’ve been bullish on the stock market for a while now, but let's be clear: it isn't because of the fundamentals. The market is stuck in a massive secular bear trend. My conviction comes down to one thing: my absolute faith in Ben’s willingness to just start printing money whenever he feels like it.

A good chunk of this comes down to the money printing, sure, but you also can't ignore how much better things look compared to that absolute disaster back in the fall of 2008. It's a different game entirely.

You really think the stock market wouldn't have imploded long ago if they weren't printing money like there's no tomorrow? Honestly, look at the numbers. It’s all a house of cards held together by the Fed's endless supply of freshly inked paper. Without that constant injection of liquidity, the whole thing would be hitting the floor right about now. I mean, just look at what happened during the last few scares—without those massive stimulus rounds, we'd be staring at a total meltdown. It's a rigged game, plain and simple.

I don't think so. It would definitely take a massive hit—no doubt about that—but it wouldn't trigger a total collapse.

We’ve become completely addicted to printing money. It’s a cycle that never ends. Can we actually just keep hitting that "print" button forever without oil prices absolutely skyrocketing? I mean, think about it. Every time the Fed starts pumping more liquidity into the system, everything gets squeezed. You can't just manufacture value out of thin air indefinitely without eventually hitting a wall where energy costs catch up to you. It feels like we're running a race on a treadmill that's accelerating, and we're all just praying the belt doesn't snap.

Look, we’ve been watching oil prices dance around for four years now. It goes up, it crashes, it climbs back up again—it’s a constant cycle. But let’s be real: we're mostly just hovering between $90 and $110 a barrel. That is nowhere near the $150 madness we saw back in the summer of 2008. We aren't even in the same ballpark.

oil:QE

With every round of QE, our starting price gets higher—this time it’s $85. If it slips back toward $150, there's no way they avoid a recession.

Raymond Vaughn8 said:An incredible 12 percent.😂
And take a look at this guyfinance.yahoo.com/q?s=BRK-A
He’s pulling in nearly 30 percent annually.😉

I don't get it.

rustyseal5 said:

I can't believe I'm even seeing this here. It’s honestly exhausting. Every single time someone tries to bring up these points, we end up right back in the same loop. I remember sitting in a diner outside of Chicago last winter, watching some guy argue about the exact same nonsense with a waitress who clearly didn't care, and it hit me then—this is just how people operate. They want the argument more than they want the truth. It’s repetitive. It’s tedious. And frankly, it’s a waste of everyone's time. We need to move past this if we ever want to actually get somewhere. kaže:
Five years? Seriously?

Yeah, five years straight!

For five years straight, we’ve been hearing the same tired script from the same group of people: that everything not tied to gold is headed for a total meltdown. It’s always the same story. They predict the collapse, they point at the markets, they wait for the sky to fall, and yet, here we are. Still waiting.Gold is surging. It’s happening.

Five years down, and we’re stuck listening to the same nonsense for another five. Honestly, I'm exhausted.

Look, I’ve been bullish on the stock market for a while now, but let's be clear: it isn't because of the fundamentals. The market is stuck in a massive secular bear trend. My conviction comes down to one thing: my absolute faith in Ben’s willingness to just start printing money whenever he feels like it.

A good chunk of this comes down to the money printing, sure, but you also can't ignore how much better things look compared to that absolute disaster back in the fall of 2008. It's a different game entirely.

You really think the stock market wouldn't have imploded long ago if they weren't printing money like there's no tomorrow? Honestly, look at the numbers. It’s all a house of cards held together by the Fed's endless supply of freshly inked paper. Without that constant injection of liquidity, the whole thing would be hitting the floor right about now. I mean, just look at what happened during the last few scares—without those massive stimulus rounds, we'd be staring at a total meltdown. It's a rigged game, plain and simple.

I don't think so. It would definitely take a massive hit—no doubt about that—but it wouldn't trigger a total collapse.

We’ve become completely addicted to printing money. It’s a cycle that never ends. Can we actually just keep hitting that "print" button forever without oil prices absolutely skyrocketing? I mean, think about it. Every time the Fed starts pumping more liquidity into the system, everything gets squeezed. You can't just manufacture value out of thin air indefinitely without eventually hitting a wall where energy costs catch up to you. It feels like we're running a race on a treadmill that's accelerating, and we're all just praying the belt doesn't snap.

Look, we’ve been watching oil prices dance around for four years now. It goes up, it crashes, it climbs back up again—it’s a constant cycle. But let’s be real: we're mostly just hovering between $90 and $110 a barrel. That is nowhere near the $150 madness we saw back in the summer of 2008. We aren't even in the same ballpark.

Just look: in five years, gold is up 60% while the stock market is only up 14%.

From March 2013 to March 2018—time will tell.

The miners (Hawaii) are closing in on that trendline (maybe 2000-2008-2013??). Hawaii is sitting at 350 right now, while the trendline is hovering around 335. You can see the $Hawaii trendline somewhat clearly on this link.

rustyseal5 said:Anything is possible, really. Like someone else pointed out, we all know gold is headed up in the long run. But let’s be honest—in the "long run," we’re all dead anyway.

When will gold hit $2,000, $4,000, $8,000, or even $160,000? Nobody knows. One thing is certain: one day, it *will* be worth $160,000. But none of you gold bugs are going to be around to gloat about it when that day finally rolls around.

Charles, are you still holding out for $1,530? Are you still planning on picking up that extra 20%?

Whenever someone brings up "cartels," I think of those malicious types who mess with the heads of top-tier experts—the same experts who, by today's standards, should have had gold priced well above $3,000 already.

😁

?

rustyseal5 said:There aren't many ways to fix debt. Erasing it through inflation is probably the least painful route. If you want an alternative, go look at what's happening in Europe.

On the flip side, history shows that Ben can use unknown measures to influence the stock market for a while, and traders are obviously going to play that circus while the music is still playing.

In that sense, this "money printer" guy has been manipulating capital markets for five years now—half a decade. If he's been doing it for five years, he'll be doing it for another five.

Both stocks and gold hold value, but if you ask me, stocks are more authentic because they actually generate new value.

I'm with you on that!

Right now, stocks are bloated thanks to unknown stimulus, while gold took a hit right when that stimulus kicked in. The big question is whether we're days or weeks away from a pivot, where the stock market avoids a total crash because Ben will just pump more money in to soften the blow.

We've been hearing this exact same thing for five years. For five long years, the same group of people has been preaching about the inevitable collapse of everything except gold, and how gold is destined to moon. None of it has happened. It's just the same tired story on repeat.

Can you guys just leave us alone for one year with these failed predictions? 🙂

Where I come from, repeating a lie or a stupidity a hundred times doesn't make it the truth on the 101st time. 😁

Five years?

On March 1, 2008, gold was $985; today it's $1580—that's up 60%.
On March 1, 2008, the S&P 500 was at 1330; today it's 1515—only up 14%.

Look at my post again. There won't be any massive stock market crashes like we saw back in '08/'09 because Ben learned his lesson.

I’ve mostly been bullish on the stock market, but not because of fundamentals (the market is actually in a massive secular bear phase). It's purely because I trust Ben's willingness to print money.

You really think the market wouldn't have tanked already if they weren't printing? We're addicted to the stimulus. How long can they keep printing without things like oil prices spiking?

dustyheron5 said:What I find interesting is how everyone is obsessed with gold prices—not just here, but in all the major financial outlets—while they completely ignore the massive bubble BlackBerry inflated in its equity... currently, alongside bonds, that represents one of the largest bubbles in the entire market. 😉

http://www.minyanville.com/business-.../2013/id/48453

And they’re doing this right in the middle of a massive secular bear market. It's wild that people actually believe you can just print money and wave a magic wand to fix all the massive problems that have been swept under the rug for the last 30 years.

On the flip side, history shows that Ben can use unknown to influence the stock market for a little while, and traders are obviously going to play that circus as long as it lasts. Both stocks and gold hold value, but if you ask me, stocks are more "authentic" because they actually generate new value. Right now, stocks are bloated from unknown, while gold took a hit right when the unknown started. It's just a matter of days or weeks before the narrative flips—everyone will be claiming a stock market crash is impossible because Ben will just pump more liquidity to soften the blow.

lonehawk5 said:I'll pop in every now and then... just to see how your little predictions are doing.
What’s the magic number today? $2,000, $5,000, $30,000?...☕

Thanks😉

$3,000

rustyseal5 said:Yeah, "might." That’s the magic word, isn't it? Used it a million times before, and look where it got us over the last year and a half. It hasn't happened. Personally, I don't see any massive rally coming that mimics that crazy run we saw from 2002 to 2011.

I know most Americans get burned financially by this because, as usual with any investment, they only jump into gold when it's already sitting right at the peak.

I can still remember the media hype from just two years ago, when every news outlet was screaming about gold and how everyone needed to buy in.

For most people, it was a total scam. They didn't enter gold as long-term investors—those folks were rare to begin with—but they were forced to become long-term holders simply because they got stuck holding the bag.

Is gold going up in the long run? Without a shadow of a doubt, yes. But we'll all be dead by the time that happens. We aren't seeing $3,000, $5,000, or tens of thousands of US Dollars per ounce anytime soon.

It’s always the same story: the crowd buys when things are expensive, never when they're cheap. Every indicator out there—sentiment, COT data, the gold-to-miners ratio, $BPGDM—all point to gold being bottomed out or right at the floor. Realistic scenario? It hits $1570-$1575 and stalls. The other option is a tiny dip, but there isn't much room to drop below that $1555 level from the other day. The only real risk is if it breaks below $1555, which might drag it toward $1523—but even then, big money will likely hunt for stops right around $1523. Whatever this "correction" ends up being, expect a jump toward $1900 shortly after.

lonehawk5, you still waiting for $1530? Still planning on picking up that 20% stake?

It looks like Ben Bernanke is losing the currency war, and the smart money is starting to smell a stock market top. We might see a weird window ahead where the US Dollar climbs against other currencies, but gold climbs even faster against the US Dollar. Even if Ben can't win this currency war, the mere fact that it’s happening should be enough for gold; currencies will just start collapsing against it one by one. Ben is likely going to try and soften the blow of what looks like a long, agonizing slide toward the end of this secular bear market—maybe another three or four years of pain. Right now, Ben has at least two massive reasons to keep printing: one to prevent (or at least cushion) a stock market crash, and another to maintain some semblance of a position in this currency war. The catch? It’ll be damn hard to pull all that off while trying to keep the US Dollar's current value intact.

Gold could stall out around 1570-75 tomorrow or the day after before heading higher.

It could hit $3,500. Honestly, anything north of $1,800 would be enough confirmation for me, but the real question is what happens in the immediate term... we might find out as early as today. Platinum might just be leading the charge here.

Robert Vaughn10 said:It’s about time we broke through the 1700 USD mark. At this point, we're just spinning our wheels. It isn't going lower, but it’s certainly not climbing either. If we actually want to make a run toward 1800 USD, we need some real momentum—moves of at least 15 USD or more.

Things look quiet, but don't let that fool you; it's wild out there. It looks static because we've hit the corner of the triangle. There's nowhere left to squeeze. A breakout is coming soon—likely tomorrow after the Federal Reserve speaks—and we'll see which way it swings. Common sense points upward. Honestly, it's hard to guess exactly which Fed move will be read as bullish for gold and which won't. The EUR/USD looks like it's heading up toward at least 1.38, suggesting the USD might keep sliding, though a weaker Dollar doesn't always mean gold goes up. Either way, we'll know very shortly, unless we get hit by a fakeout before the real deal happens.

Gold has hit the corner of this massive triangle. Now we wait to see which way it breaks. Yesterday’s attempt at a breakout failed miserably, slamming right into that resistance line on GLD. With the Federal Reserve meeting coming up, we might finally see a catalyst push things in one direction or the other.

The commercials slashed their gold shorts big time between January 22nd and January 29th—though they didn't touch silver. Of course, without the data from January 5th, it's hard to say just how drastic that move really was.

Unemployment ticked up from 7.8% to 7.9%, missing the 7.8% forecast. So, I guess Ben needs to keep the printing presses running—or maybe just crank them up. Gold is climbing, stocks are climbing. It’d be great if gold could break through 1700 sooner rather than later; 1700 is the magic number.

I think things are starting to clear up a bit. Gold managed to bounce back above the 10 and 200 DMA, and we established a new higher low on January 28th. In my book, gold absolutely cannot drop below that January 28th level.

The big picture looks a lot like what we saw back in the summer of 2012:

100 wma, 75 wma

100 wma, 10 wma

Ben Bernanke interview

analogharbor44 said:So, what’s the deal with those predictions about hitting $1880 by the end of February? 🤷

I've been scrolling through some Silver Doctors articles lately—you gotta check out both the bulls and the bears to get the full picture.

http://www.silverdoctors.com/massive...-through-1800/

It really feels like lonehawk5 might actually be onto something here. If prices drop like that, I'll definitely be jumping in to grab some silver (my wallet isn't quite ready for gold yet, haha! 😁)

I already covered this in my previous post, but let's be real: that sudden price drop on thin after-hours volume right after the QE4 announcement? It definitely raised some eyebrows. Back on November 5th, gold hit a critical floor, and you could practically smell the QE4 coming. Looking back now, it’s much easier to connect the dots. If we slip below $1,626, all bets are off—that would confirm the worst-case scenario. Personally, I’m already seeing red flags if we drop below $1,660. The situation with mining stocks is looking just as shaky; if they slide past the 100-day WMA, then the 500-day DMA, and finally $1,626, we are officially in trouble.

hollowmoose21 said:HUI at 400. That's it. Now get ready for the bounce back.

Gold charts suggest the S&P might dip toward 386 before we see a rebound up to 465—assuming the nightmare scenario plays out—followed by a drop down to 290.

The nightmare scenario involves forming a Head & Shoulders pattern (neckline on 6/12, left shoulder on 8/12, head on 9/12, then the neckline again followed by a head near an S&P level of 465).

$xau

$gold:$xau will likely touch the trendline around 11.2, creating a neck at the iH&S pattern. From there, it could retreat to about the 200 DMA before ripping upward past 13.

$gold:$xau

All this implies gold has to tank while miners do their thing. This whole mess could drag gold below 1500.

November 5th was a crucial bottom. Gold caught a whiff of QE4 and should have taken flight on those wings. But, surprise surprise, some low-volume after-hours action happened that might have flipped the script. I don't think it kills the massive bull market, but it could stall it, stretching out this correction or consolidation phase.

If they actually managed to stall gold right after the QE4 announcement—or if we just saw some poorly timed, short-term manipulation—then the coming wave will be even bigger, and the final target will be higher than it would have been without the interference.

The issue is that miners could get absolutely hammered in this scenario (as I noted earlier). Much like what happened in late October/early November, the stock market could drag them down if we hit a mini-crash, say, sometime in April. We'd face a perfect storm for miners: falling gold prices, a significant stock market slide, and traders completely abandoning mining stocks. Sure, lately miners have been moving inversely to the S&P, but history shows that when the S&P goes into a heavy correction, it often pulls miners down with it. In this specific negative scenario, they’ll be more than happy to join the stock market in a synchronized dive.

The better outcome? The $xau trendline holds (I think it does in both scenarios) and manages to break above the 175 zone to escape that Head & Shoulders pattern. The catch is that once everyone sees the pattern, they'll bail before it happens. So, the only way miners survive this is if gold sees a massive surge right then. If that doesn't happen, miners are definitely dragging gold down with them.

Robert Vaughn10 said:We were at $1,620 once too, and nobody blinked. A move lower would be tough; the pressure is heavy, but it's holding steady enough.

True, but the big hurdle right now is breaking past $1,700. Anything can happen, but if we don't clear $1,700 (maybe this week?), things could get messy... honestly, slipping below $1,660 would be 🙂 🙂.