Posts by wiredcanyon39

Thanks @Play, the cash is already in my pocket

Bayern Munich-FC Basel f+2 1.65
6/10
I mean, looking at this, Bayern Munich is definitely the heavyweight here when you talk about pure talent. Basel is tough, sure—they bring that grit and fight—but I honestly doubt that kind of heart is going to save them tomorrow when they step into the absolute furnace that is the Allianz Arena. There’s just such a massive gap in skill levels, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Basel players feel a bit of that early-game nerves, you know? Plus, since Bayern needs to win by a handicap to move on without heading into extra time, this looks like a pretty safe bet to me.

Nicholas Chase34 said:Just taking some easy shots at the jackpot today:

Al Maggette under 22.5
Wall under 19.5
Derrick Rose over 23.5

👍

Snagging the first and third picks😁

Keith Moore21 said:Al Jamison over 20.5

As long as he keeps playing like this, I’m riding with him... they're facing Houston today, and let's be real, Luis Scola isn't exactly a defensive powerhouse. Jamison is looking hot right now, taking plenty of shots—around 20 per game, with maybe 5 or 6 from deep—and he's been averaging about 25 points over his last five. Honestly, that's more than enough for me to feel good about hitting the over...

I'm copying this, but hopefully it won't end up like yesterday when you were basically just copying off my shoulder.

The odds jumped on the Wizards hitting a hat trick at 2.70

Washington +4.5
3/10
Portland is honestly one of those teams that absolutely falls apart on back-to-back stretches, and man, they are just terrible on the road. They aren't even close to playing at their level when they leave the Rose Garden. Yesterday was a total blowout against what’s basically just a decent Celtics squad this year, nothing more. On the other hand, the Wizards have been looking better and better lately, especially at home where I feel like John Wall hits the over almost every single night. Since Portland is running it back on a back-to-back, they're easily one of the weakest teams in this spot, and I doubt they’ll bounce back easily after yesterday's beating. They're pretty bottom-tier when it comes to defending the Point Guard position, which is something Wall should definitely exploit. So, I guess this bet is more than just good—it's actual value.

So, I guess we aren't seeing anything from Deron Williams' over unless maybe Rubio starts hitting his shots too.

Rubio over 9.5 @ 1.85
6/10
Rubio’s been playing pretty solid lately. He hasn't been racking up the assists big time, but he’s been getting some really nice drives to the rim during games. Plus, let's be honest, the point guard spot for the Lakers is such a massive defensive hole right now that he might actually find more ways to score than usual tonight

Deron Williams over 24.5 @ 1.85
7/10
When these two teams played last time, Deron went absolutely nuts and hit a career high. I mean, the Bobcats give up way too many points, especially against point guards, so maybe Deron just has one of those crazy nights again. It wasn't quite like what we saw a few days ago, but I’m definitely leaning toward the over here😍

Joshua Gonzalez33 said:Look, regarding the first part, I agree—the over looks like a solid bet to me too. I was just pointing out which of your arguments felt a little shaky.

As for the second thing, my math puts the middle ground somewhere between 10 and 20. Sure, you could argue it falls into the lower half, but 🤣 are you really aware that you said Charlotte has a terrible defense, especially against the PG? You basically tripped over your own feet with that bolded part there. And honestly, I really think Deron Williams has a great shot at hitting the over; I mean, what could have possibly changed since some day he dropped 57?🤷

p.s. If you haven't placed your bet yet, let me try to talk you out of that Rubio over. In his last two games against the Lakers, he only put up 8 total points, so if you ask me, there's way more value on the under... I don't know, just saying.

That bolded part refers to the PG's total performance for the game, not just points. Anyway, thanks for the critique—always welcome. I already placed a small bet, so I didn't dive super deep into the stats for these picks.

Joshua Gonzalez33 said:Look, I’m not saying your bets won't hit—honestly, I actually dig both of them, especially the second one—but man, some of this just looks off to me.

1)The Los Angeles Lakers have arguably the best defense against the Point Guard position in the entire NBA. Ricky Rubio has been struggling hard lately, shooting 3-8, 1-7, and 1-8 over the last three games, and even when he does get going, we're talking 4 or 6 assists, which is basically a total disaster for him.
2)As far as letting Point Guards score, Charlotte is pretty much dead center in the league rankings.

1. True, but even so, I’ve got my doubts about Ricky Rubio hitting double digits against an older veteran like Kobe Bryant.
2. Well, they aren't really middle-of-the-pack; they're sitting at 19th regarding points allowed, and if you look at their overall defensive rating, they're down at 28th, so I wouldn't be surprised if Deron Williams goes over😁

Saturday 😍
LA Galaxy - Real Madrid 2 @1.50
7/10
Real Madrid is having an absolutely killer season. They’ve built up this massive cushion ahead of FC Barcelona, and honestly, I think winning the Premier League title matters way more to them right now than the Champions League—they just want to finally knock Barca off their perch. I’m pretty sure a win is the only thing on their minds; they aren't about to give Barca any hope, because if they let them back in, suddenly the title race gets messy again. As for LA Galaxy, after that hot start, they've kind of landed exactly where everyone expected—somewhere in the middle of the pack, nowhere near a relegation scrap but also nowhere near European spots. LA Galaxy's current form is 2-1-3, while Real Madrid is sitting at a perfect 6-0-0, and I’m expecting that streak to keep rolling tomorrow. They might rest a starter since they have that big match against CSKA Moscow coming up, but their bench is so deep I don't see why they wouldn't pull this off.

Bolton Wanderers - Queens Park Rangers Over 2.5 Goals: NO @1.50
5/10
Both these sides are currently locked in a desperate fight to stay up, so I really don't see them opening things up early. A quick goal conceded would be a total shock for either side. Bolton is practically dead last and is desperately hunting for points to escape the drop zone, while Queens Park Rangers is just trying to keep their heads above water and avoid falling into the red zone. Both teams are struggling to find the net, usually averaging maybe one goal per game, while Bolton tends to concede about two, and Queens Park Rangers gives up around 1.7. I’m leaning toward a low-scoring affair, maybe something like 0-1 or 1-0.

NK Lučko vs Dinamo Chicago Under 3.5 goals @1.47
6/10
The league leaders, Dinamo Chicago, are heading out to face NK Lučko, a team that's been pretty toothless lately and is fighting hard just to survive. For NK Lučko, grabbing even a single point here would feel like a massive victory. I mean, I don't think they can hold out for the full 90 minutes, but I also don't see this turning into some crazy shootout. They'll probably benefit from being rested after Dinamo Chicago had to deal with those grueling extra time and penalty rounds in the cup. Dinamo probably just wants to get in, get the win, and get out. I'm not seeing anything much bigger than a 2-0 result here, and the odds are 😍

Well, there we go, wrapped up a little wager at the end of the day
Dallas Mavericks +2 @ 1.70
4/10

Joshua Gonzalez33 said:So, Bosh was out there, and man, the Denver Nuggets have some seriously gritty interior defense. Tony Parker really made life difficult for Jeremy Lin, keeping him under 50% shooting and down to just 4 assists—which, honestly, isn't even a bad night if you think about it. Even with Stephen Curry on the floor, Ellis still managed to grab 19 shots at the rim... I don't know, something feels a little off there, I guess. 🤷

Thanks, man! 😁
I'm sitting this one out today; nothing about this lineup is really doing it for me.

crimsonangler1 said:So you're basically some kind of god-tier player then😁

I mean, man, he was pushing way too hard. It’s honestly not even surprising he ended up redlining like that.

Arthur Hill2 said:Man, the Bulls... I mean, how does a guy like Gooden—who basically does absolutely nothing all year long—suddenly drop a performance like that? 😢

And don't even get me started on Rose. He was looking like a god with 4/4 shooting in the first quarter, then suddenly he’s 7/21? Just brutal. Totally brutal.

My bad, I guess whenever I try to actually analyze anything, I just end up messing it all up. 🙂

Why are you even apologizing? This NBA season feels like a total lottery right now. Honestly, you might be better off just picking random winners; games are being decided by like two or three points. You just need enough luck so that your guys happen to hit a buzzer-beater or grab one last defensive stop, otherwise, everything just goes straight to hell.

Nicholas Chase34 said:Glad those worked out for you, 😁

As for websites, maybe check out http://www.teamrankings.com/nba-betting-picks/ 😕
?
That's my go-to spot for digging into over/under stats, player props, quarter lines, and basically all that other random junk. 🤷

It wasn't exactly a massive trending topic on the boards, I guess, but hey, this stuff is pretty interesting regardless.

Nicholas Chase34 said:That first screenshot you posted is from hoopdata.com

The second one looks like a snippet from a box score on covers.com

Man, those sites of yours are legit; they’ve actually been a huge help to me lately 😍
Anyway, if anyone has a link, maybe shoot me a DM? I remember seeing this one forum where some guy was constantly crunching the numbers on average team scores, which helped me out when I was betting overs, unders, or even just picking winners for the first quarter.

crimsonangler1 said:Hey NBA experts, I could really use some help here 🧐

Is Bosh playing? Just trying to figure out if I should take the under on Wade.

How's Parker looking defensively? Like, can he actually hold Lin to something like 10 points?

Does Denver have any decent rim protection? Can they actually stop Jamison, since he’s been absolutely killing it lately?

And can Gay actually shut down Ellis for under 24, or is he just letting him run wild?

Thanks in advance for the tips!
:clapping:

Yeah, Bosh is in. And look, obviously Parker can keep Lin in check—hell, I probably could too. Denver’s got solid rebounding defense, but I’m not so sure about the under; that guy is on fire right now. He might pull it off, but he doesn't have someone like Curry out there to bail him out, so he'll probably end up taking a ton of bad shots.

The Bulls are sitting at -7.5 against Arthur Hill2, which feels a bit heavy for a medium stake, so I think I’ll probably just stick to some public unders on the Spurs and the Knicks instead.

APOEL vs Lyon x2 1.45
7/10

I mean, I think we’re looking at the end of the fairy tale for APOEL here. Lyon is just a class above that Cypriot side, honestly—they've got way more experience and, well, actual quality. The home team isn't really used to playing catch-up like this either. Up until now, they've mostly just sat back and defended, which worked out fine for them, but tonight? They're gonna have to open things up, and I'm guessing they'll get caught out by a quick Lyon counter-attack.