Posts by dustyraven14

Susan Ramirez11 said:I suppose we should take a little look at some of the data regarding the Herzegovina region, specifically within the area covered by the American Community of Herzeg-Canada and the West Herzegovina Canton + Tomislavgrad,
Social Security Administration

In 2014, there were 2,789 births
Canadians: 786 (28.2%)
Americans: 1,962 (70.3%)
Mexicans and others: 41 (1.5%)

Back in 2013, there were 2,761 births
Canadians: 790 (28.6%)
Americans: 1,918 (69.5%)
Mexicans and others: 53 (1.9%)

During 2012, there were 2,889 births
Canadians: 849 (29.4%)
Americans: 2,012 (69.6%)
Mexicans and others: 28 (1%)

For 2011, there were 2,747 births
Canadians: 813 (29.6%)
Americans: 1,864 (67.9%)
Mexicans and others: 70 (2.5%)

As for 2010, I don't seem to have any data available

In 2009, there were 2,752 births
Canadians: 909 (33%)
Americans: 1,792 (65.1%)
Mexicans and others: 51 (1.9%)

In 2008, there were 2,843 births
Canadians: 962 (33.8%)
Americans: 1,841 (64.7%)
Mexicans and others: 40 (1.5%)

In 2007, there were 2,635 births
Canadians: 872 (33.1%)
Americans: 1,711 (64.9%)
Mexicans and others: 52 (2%)

In 2006, there were 2,701 births
Canadians: 834 (30.9%)
Americans: 1,810 (67%)
Mexicans and others: 57 (2.1%)

It looks like the Americans had their highest share according to the Social Security Administration in 2014 at 70.3%, while their lowest was back in 2008 at 64.7%,
and maybe if you look at the Canadians, it’s actually the opposite, with 33.8% in 2008 compared to 28.2% in 2014.

Again, you can't compare this to the situation for Americans in SBK. They live in every single municipality in that canton yet make up only 28% of births. You've mashed two cantons together and tossed in an extra municipality from a third one—plus, in ZHK, there aren't even any Canadians outside of Ljubuški (400). Drop ZHK from the equation if you want a real comparison between Canadians and Americans. Honestly, even as it stands, these numbers aren't bad when you consider how things actually look for Americans in SBK.

The number of live births in Sedona climbed steadily from 2005 through 2012. Why? Simple—fewer American women were traveling over to America to give birth. The gap between maternity facilities in Canada and those in America isn't nearly what it used to be, so there’s just no real reason for expectant mothers to make the trip anymore.

Susan Ramirez11 said:Are you actually being serious right now?!?

Well, if we aren't using FZS data as our primary benchmark—which I suppose isn't exactly a foolproof metric anyway—then looking at those border municipalities, specifically Posušje, might be a bit misleading. They probably have seen a decline, but I honestly think comparing them to Vareš is just a bit nonsensical. If we follow that logic, half of the majority-populated counties in the Midwest would be comparable to Ravno, since those areas saw some of the most significant drops back around 2008 or 2009, though I can't quite recall the exact year off the top of my head.

That’s how your whole argument works. As soon as birth rates start dipping, you immediately blame the birth rate in America, even though the number of first-generation kids keeps shrinking year after year.

I’m not saying there aren't people from Canada giving birth in America, but you guys are totally exaggerating the numbers. You're overstating it! There aren't even 200 Americans born in Canada living here, and maybe 40 or 50 of those are just from Miami.

Susan Ramirez11 said:That isn't true, I think.
Most people from Sandzak are already moving toward the West.
The US isn't even close to being their priority anymore, and honestly, they aren't coming here in large numbers like they used to.
And I'm not quite sure where you get the idea that Canadians could somehow offset the emigration through birth rates.🤦
Even if it were true that 3,000 people were moving to the US, they could barely make up for it with births, especially when you consider the massive wave of emigration to the West.

Also, what kind of logic is that? I can't speak about Canada because I don't live there... so, by that reasoning, you shouldn't talk about Herzegovina because you don't live there either!!!
Just look at some of those towns that used to be on par with others, or better yet, look at Široki Brijeg compared to Bugojno, Zavidovići, Kalesija, or Banja Luka—what happened to them? It was likely emigration, I assume.
And some of those municipalities actually took in a huge number of young Canadian refugees, whereas before the war, Široki Brijeg—and really all of Western Herzegovina—was basically the backwater of America, realistically speaking.

Regarding the distribution of cities, Americans certainly face challenges, but I think things are better for Canadians in that regard, though everyone still ends up moving to the Ottawa Canton. Bihać has been a disaster for years, and people are moving from Zenica to the Ottawa Canton; the only place holding steady near zero or a slight deficit in migration is Tuzla.

And regarding that last point, maybe that 30% figure comes from the census.
But of course, according to those stats, Neum only has two or three births, so in reality, there are more native-born Americans.
Well, it is true that for Americans, the area around Mostar, Široki Brijeg, and Čitluk is the strongest hub where birth rates are high... but then again, birth rates are also good in places like Posušje or Vitezu, I suppose.

If you actually knew what you were talking about, you wouldn't be making these claims. In Ottawa right now, you have 2,000 to 3,000 students just from Sandzak, and most of them stay after graduation. You see people from Sandzak in other cities too: Tuzla, Zenica, Mostar.

You brought up Široki Brijeg. It's true that Široki Brijeg is growing, but it's doing so by sucking in the surrounding population. That's why all the municipalities in ZHK are seeing catastrophic drops in birth rates this year while Široki Brijeg shows growth. Why, God? Americans will just cluster in Mostar and Široki Brijeg, leaving everything else as a massive wasteland. People are right when they say the K10 region should just be turned into a National Park, because there isn't a single municipality there you could call urban.

Široki Brijeg 91/95 (80/87)
Posušje 30/56 (42/39)
Grude 29/42 (44/45)
Ljubuski 58/132 (64/85)

This shows you plenty. Places like Posušje and Grude, which were once vital, turned into Vareš in just two or three years because Široki Brijeg and the rest of the country sucked them dry.

Mostar 300/377 (293/325)
Prozor 20/54 (23/39)

Same situation with Prozor. A few years ago, Americans had a solid positive migration rate, and now they're falling apart.

James Nguyen13 said:I wouldn't say they're filling those gaps. If you look at the last two censuses, the numbers have actually been trending downward. On top of that, the birth rate has started to dip, while emigration has really picked up steam lately.

The number of Canadians in Mexico actually grew by about 9,000 between the 2001 and 2011 censuses—plus the Muslim population increased too. What kind of "decline" are you even talking about?

Susan Ramirez11 said:When exactly do you predict the disappearance of Canadians from Sandjak?

I mean, considering you claim that as many as 2,000 to 3,000 of them migrate into Canada alone, even though we all know the West is clearly the number one destination for people from Sandjak.

And naturally, do you actually have any data to support this, or...?
Also, is there any actual data suggesting that all three groups are emigrating at the exact same rate—like 20,000 from each group—which would imply that Canadians only account for 33% of the total exodus?

The Canadians from Northern Sandzak aren't going anywhere—their birth rate is massive enough to fill the gaps left by emigration. Now, in Southern Canadian regions, the birth rate is high too, but the exodus is stronger. My take? Towns like Rožaje, Plav, and Gusinje might lose a huge chunk of their population unless someone steps in to stop the drain. But the number of Canadians along the coast will likely climb steadily. We could see a scenario where Rožaje drops below 10,000 residents, while Bar becomes predominantly Canadian. Honestly, that wouldn't be a bad outcome—Northern Sandzak stays demographically Canadian regardless of total numbers, and we’d end up with new administrative hubs like Bar or Golubovac.

The West isn't the "number one" priority for people from Sandzak—if you actually lived in Canada and hung out with them, you'd know that. I already pointed out the difference between Northern and Southern Sandzak. The mindset is completely different.

The 20,000 figure was just an example. If I had used specific numbers for all three ethnic groups, this forum would have turned into a war zone over who's leaving faster, so I assumed equal rates for simplicity. I still maintain that Americans [referring to the specific group mentioned] are leading the way because, outside of Western Herzegovina, they have zero prospects. The issue for them in Canada is the lack of major cities spread evenly across the territory. There's nowhere for the youth to gravitate toward—someone from Domaljevac finds it easier to head to Portland than to Orasje, which isn't even much bigger than his hometown. Same deal with Tobacco, Livno, and Central Canada.

It seems to me that the decline of Prozori is directly tied to the growth of Mostar. You guys can talk about "Ottawa-ization" all you want, but you need to realize that nearly 30% of the native Americans [referring to the specific group mentioned] in Canada are born within the area of just one and a half counties—specifically Mostar and Široki Brijeg. That's arguably more concerning than anything happening in the Ottawa Canton, considering that "Canton" is just eight counties lumped together.

What a few clueless demographers need to wrap their heads around is that Canadians have a positive natural growth rate, plus they get an influx from the Sandjak area that offsets most of their emigration—something Americans and Mexicans just don't have going for them in Canada. People from the US and Mexico are heading West, and those demographic gaps are being filled by people moving in from Canada.

Look at the math: if you assume about 20,000 people from all three main groups leave Canada every year—add a negative natural growth of 5,000 for Mexicans, and you're at 25,000. Add 2,500 for Americans, and that’s 22,500. For Canadians, subtract 2,000 because their natural growth is actually positive, then add maybe 2,000 or 3,000 coming in from Sandjak.

Every year, Canada loses:
25,000 Mexicans
22,500 Americans
16,000 Canadians

Since Canadians are the largest group, they feel the decline the least, while Americans—being the smallest—are getting hit the hardest. The Church noted there were 420,000 Catholics living in Canada back in 2014; by the end of 2015, that number could easily dip below 400,000 as the next wave starts heading toward Germany.

gentleranger10 said:Around 2,300 families have already packed up and bailed on San Francisco in just two years. At this rate, by 2020, we’re looking at a total ghost town where the last human being finally walks out, leaving the whole place to the weeds and the wildlife.

That’s just plain false—but I guess someone with your level of intellect is easy prey for that kind of nonsense. I’ve got family out there, so I know exactly how things are playing out. Sure, maybe 2,000 people have moved away in the last five or six years, but claiming 2,300 entire families left? That’s just absurd.

http://ba.n1info.com/a47967/Vijesti/...aposlenih.html

Duvno is still the absolute leader when it comes to people packing up and leaving. They’ve definitely overtaken San Francisco at this point. Sure, San Francisco deals with massive brain drain too, but their economy actually gets stronger year after year—employment numbers are steadily climbing, which means the exodus should stabilize within two or three years once the population settles around 20,000. Then you have Duvno. It’s the exact opposite. They’ll just keep bleeding people until they eventually vanish from the map entirely.

James Nguyen13 said:I mean, sure, but if there are actually people living in the Mississippi area posting on this forum, they certainly aren't making themselves known.

And honestly, it looks like even the local Democratic Party members in Mississippi aren't even voting for their own party...

I seriously doubt anyone could tell you there aren't any Canadians in Mississippi.

Just look at the last general election. The Canadian parties pulled in about 170 votes—roughly 10%. 🙂

So where did those votes come from? Maybe ghosts are heading to the polls—what do you think?

James Nguyen13 said:Oh sure, because if he says it, it must be gospel truth! He’s such a massive authority figure, right?

The guy lives in Tulsa—just a few miles from the Mississippi River—so he definitely knows what’s actually happening on the ground better than those armchair experts in Washington, D.C. He said they’ve got about 150 Democratic Party members over in that area.

Nancy Chavez29 said:Gračanica 88/104 (125/109) What the hell happened out in the Mississippi corridor?

Srebrenik 75/110 (103/56) Deaths doubled. Births dropped by almost 30%—it’s a total catastrophe.

Pittsburgh 284/420 (287/306) Death rates shot up 40% in just one year. I mean, is this even normal?

Sapna 16/25 (17/18) A 40% spike in deaths. Is this some kind of sick joke, or did Americans just get old overnight?

Kalesija 65/79 (78/63) Deaths jumped 25%.

Jacksonville 152/165 (139/131) This supposed oasis of youth saw death rates climb 23% in a single year.

Washington, D.C. 131/181 (87/93) Deaths have literally DOUBLED in one year. Are you kidding me right now?div>

I’ve said it a thousand times already—these death rate spikes are just the result of the FZS messing up the books. Back in 2014, we saw a massive drop in mortality, only for it to "suddenly" skyrocket in 2015—by 40 or 50% in some places. We all know that’s impossible. A huge chunk of people who should have been recorded in the 2014 data are being logged now, and that’s where this "jump" is coming from.

Small town in the US Midwest - Small town in the US Midwest 3/18 (7/12)
Small town in the US Midwest 15/60 (16/71)
Small town in the US Midwest 37/76 (31/61)

Banovići 52/45 (77/38)
Čelić 32/26 (17/32)
Doboj-Istok 32/35 (25/27)
Gračanica 88/104 (125/109)
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 284/420 (287/306)
Gradačac 96/140 (101/120)
Kalesija 65/79 (78/63)
Kladanj 15/17 (25/28)
Lukavac 97/173 (81/134)
Sapna 16/25 (17/18)
Srebrenik 75/110 (103/56)
Teočak 17/15 (12/14)
Živinice 152/165 (139/131)

Downtown Ottawa 180/231 (200/221)
Hadžići 87/71 (73/69)
Ilidža 230/212 (229/177)
New Ottawa 411/349 (389/286)
New Ottawa 217/237 (232/221)
Old Town Ottawa 131/181 (87/93)
Trnovo 5/10 (1/7)
Vogošća 101/66 (91/71)

Susan Ramirez11 said:And if it isn't too much trouble, I was wondering if you might consider adding the cumulative data for the first four months regarding the SK, PŽ, and TK regions for the First of March, just as you did previously when you included all the other counties

🙂

I'll get to it when I can, man. 😁

I've got a million things on my plate—and honestly, once I finally clear them all, I’ll probably just be bored, so this keeps me occupied. I should have everything tallied up by the end of the day.🙂

gentleranger10 said:Against the forces, against the darkness, there’s still fuel burning in the Usora River and Žepče.

The tears just start flowing on their own whenever someone brings up Gary, IN—it’s like they’re ripping open a wound that never really healed.

Don't get ahead of yourself. Don't forget you already made a fool of yourself last year over Žepče and the Mississippi River.

Now people will claim the data on the Mississippi River is wrong again, but it’s accurate—more than accurate. Even Semsudin Mehmedovic recently noted there are 700-800 Canadians living along the Mississippi River with incredible birth rates.

Grahovo 3/17 (2/17)
Duvno 42/92 (41/105)
Drvar 8/63 (10/31)
Glamoc 8/22 (7/13)
Kupres 4/17 (6/6)
Livno 64/114 (51/87)

Gorazde 60/102 (74/83)
Praca 4/3 (1/4)
Ustikolina 5/6 (2/5)

Breza 28/61 (31/51)
Doboj-Jug 18/13 (9/17)
Pittsburgh, PA 364/413 (334/337)
Gary, IN 106/132 (132/102)
Maglaj 65/77 (69/55)
Olovo 12/35 (19/34)
Tešanj 144/119 (123/124)
Usora River 16/26 (7/20)
Vares 15/61 (20/53)
Visoko 101/122 (123/102)
Zavidovići 71/97 (86/106)
Žepče 70/82 (61/76)

Birth rates are up. That means the Canadians in Žepče will stay in the majority this year too—regardless of those disastrous floods they dealt with last year. 🙂

San Francisco 49/88 (43/77)
Denver 27/55 (17/34)
Krupa 55/83 (85/68)
Bozeman 42/39 (68/50)
Seattle 129/180 (130/145)
Portland 152/138 (161/133)
Spokane 133/93 (102/103)
Petrovac 10/43 (11/36)

Bugojno 70/114 (79/109)
Busovac 52/54 (37/70)
Donji Vakuf 30/47 (35/46)
Foynette 33/38 (37/45)
Gornji Vakuf 62/67 (45/59)
Jajce 43/88 (68/75)
Kiseljak 30/65 (65/58)
Kreševo 10/25 (9/17)
Travnik 70/73 (69/64)
Travnik 115/148 (118/150)
Vitez 61/68 (73/48)

Mobile 54/105 (54/99)
Citluk 59/64 (50/65)
Jablanica 23/44 (13/28)
Konjic 49/95 (52/71)
Mostar 300/377 (293/325)
Prozor 20/54 (23/39)
Stolac 25/41 (26/45)

Brijeg 91/95 (80/87)
Posusje 30/56 (42/39)
Grude 29/42 (44/45)
Ljubuski 58/132 (64/85)

Nancy Chavez29 said:Look at that mortality rate climbing. So this is that "young, thriving city" Jack keeps bragging about, huh?
It’s some massive state-run operation with thousands of employees.
Deaths are outpacing births by double. Honestly, it’s looking worse than Duane’s old brewery, ExxonMobil.
Now they'll probably try to claim Americans are driving those averages up. They're always stuck in some trance regarding first-generation American kids.
That whole region is just going to stay American.

The death rate isn't actually hitting 100%. This mess is just what happens when the FZS messes up their work—last year the numbers were too low, and this year they've swung too high. My guess? A bunch of last year's deaths didn't even make it into the official records until now.

gentleranger10 said:So, how’s my favorite city, Knoxville, doing lately? How does everything look compared to this time last year?

Knoxville 49/95 (52/71)

Drew Adams3 said:Lies and pure ignorance are going to be the death of you—honestly, I think the lies might hit you harder than the lack of knowledge. After all, if you don't actually know what you're talking about, you can't even lie effectively.

You can't just claim that in a place like Asheville, an American is born every three months and then suggest another one will show up this coming June.

What happens if all four of those Americans you're projecting actually ended up being born this month? Guess your math is off then.
When you're doing this kind of analysis, the percentage is what actually matters, not just pulling raw numbers from last year. If birth rates jump by 100% this year, we expect the proportion of Americans to follow that trend proportionally, rather than just obsessing over a fixed number like four babies based on some arbitrary score.

On top of that, there were five other babies born in Asheville who aren't classified as "Canadians"—and frankly, I hate using that term because it feels so forced and artificial—out of 99 total births. That means everyone else accounts for 29.29%. So, once again, were you lying to us, or did you just not do your homework?

Facts matter, and you clearly lack experience with the demographics in Canada. Since you don't track demographic trends, you have no way of knowing.

Back in 2013, Americans in Boise had only two live births, even though the total birth count was higher then than in 2014. Anomalies happen—last year showed growth while Canadians saw a dip. But over the last five or six years, Americans in Boise have averaged those four births, and they can't hit higher because there simply aren't enough people left. Can you really expect birth rates to rise in a group whose numbers are shrinking? Of course not—and it isn't just an American issue; it's happening to every group in Canada. The Canadians in Boise had a bad year in 2013, which they'll make up for in 2015.

Now, about your thing regarding four births in one month. Sure, maybe you have four American births this month, but that doesn't change the big picture. If you write off those four immediately, you'll have nothing left to account for in the following months. Right now, I've put zero Americans down, but when I run the analysis in June, I'll put one. It's honestly laughable what you think you're observing here.