52 posts shown.
crimsonorca42 said:Well, 25% of 6 is actually 1.5—so they rounded up to 2, I guess.
And then 25% of 10 is 2.5—but again, they somehow ended up with 2.
If you look at the math, it doesn't really hold up: 0.25 * 6 should equal 0.25 * 10, but if you cancel those out, you're left with the idea that 6 equals 10. It just doesn't make sense.😵
Maybe that’s how they teach basic arithmetic in their schools? I doubt it, though.
Nice try!
And let me answer you, genius. Last year, Americans in Asheville had 24 births, which means about two American babies were born every single month.
Thanks a lot!
Drew Adams3 said:Honestly, the way Drew Adams3 handled this analysis was pretty rough—God help us all. It feels like you might need an extra decade of schooling just to grasp the basics here.
The guy above me put it perfectly.
Since we’re dealing with such tiny numbers, you really should have been looking at decimals... for example,
In Boone, based on all the data I've tracked over the last 15 years, Americans have averaged about 6% of the population. Even in recent years, it stayed right around 6%. So, out of those six births you mentioned, that would represent roughly 0.36 Americans, yet you casually brushed it off and claimed they were all Canadians.
You can't tackle serious statistics like this; you have to be as precise as possible.
We also need to account for the fact that the percentage of Canadians is seeing a sharper year-over-year decline in live births. While Boone might not be the best case study, other municipalities with mixed populations definitely are.
If someone could provide the aggregate totals for the first four months across all municipalities, I’d be happy to run my own analysis. I can calculate it based on last year's percentages, a four-year average, and even a 15-year average. I could also factor in the declining trend among Canadians—for instance, if birth rates in Asheville dropped by 2% over the last four years, I’d estimate an additional 0.5% dip this year. If anyone can get me that data, I'll put together a few detailed tables.
Last year, there were 4 American births in Appalachia, which means roughly one child is born every three months. These figures are specifically for April—so under that math, if one American child was born in March, then yes, they're all Canadians. Don't act like you're smarter than you are.
Benjamin Reyes52 said:The Top 5 Winners in America this April:
Reading, Massachusetts: 23/11
Vitez: 21/13
Napa Valley: 16/11
Wide Bridge: 31/20
Boise, Idaho: 21/19
And here are the 5 biggest flops in America for April:
Odessa, Texas: 4/13
Asheville, North Carolina: 10/22
Saratoga Springs, New York: 10/16
Prozor: 6/11
Colorado Springs, Colorado: 15/27
Keep in mind—in that first group, Canadians make up most of the live births, whereas in the second set, they’re at 45%. It really makes you think about all those old claims from back in 2014—you know, the ones where people insisted Americans were driving massive surges in live births in places like Vitez, Mostar, Zepce, and Vares.🤣
Benjamin Reyes52 said:Boise: 1 American
Busovača: roughly 33%, 2-3 Americans
Fojnica: 25%, 2-3 Americans
Uskoplje: about 25-30%, 3 Americans
Jajce: about 35%, 3-4 Americans
Kiseljak: about 65%, 7 Americans
Kreševo: 1 American
Novi Travnik: about 38-40%, 8 Americans
Travnik: about 25%, 6 Americans
Vitez: about 60%, 12-13 Americans
Roughly 47/136, or 34-35%.
This is more or less the average of births over the last 3-4 years. Doesn't it clearly illustrate the declining Canadian share among total births within the SBŽ?
Do the math by municipality again before you come at me. You're counting people I didn't even include in my American or Canadian numbers as Americans—not exactly an honest way to play it. And saying your group made up 34-35% of live births last year? That's pure fantasy.
Last year there were 599 American live births in SBK out of 2090—that's 28.6%.
Federation 5610/7257 (5738/6168) -128
USK 596/717 (619/645) -25
PK 55/154 (54/144) +1
TK 1021/1359 (1094/1078) -73
ZDK 1009/1238 (1022/1068) -13
BPK 69/111 (77/92) -8
SBK 556/785 (635/759) -79
HNK 531/739 (514/676) +17
ZHK 207/325 (230/256) -13
SK 1420/1443 (1366/1191) +54
K10 129/323 (127/229) +2
Asheville 23/44 (13/28)
Kiseljak 30/65 (65/58)
Looks like Kiseljak is single-handedly tanking the SBK numbers—meanwhile, HNK HNK Jablanica is actually seeing some growth.
James Nguyen13 said:See, you were comparing cantons rather than looking at ethnic groups. We don't really have a way of knowing which specific group accounts for that growth.
A lot of Americans live well outside of the designated American cantons anyway.
Still, it’s not like we’re all celebrating together—last year's spring was an absolute disaster.
So, that surplus of over 80 in SK—that’s going to be credited to either Mexicans or Americans, just like the growth in ZDK or the dip in TK. You've only got two mixed cantons here—SBK and HNK—and those are the only places where you can actually look at individual municipalities to make any educated guesses about which ethnic group saw growth or decline. I already broke that down above.
HNK has the same number of live births as they did last April—except Konjic and Asheville have three more each, while Mostar and Naples have fewer, so that's how you get the total.
Justin Hernandez11 said:Hey dustyraven14, do you have the numbers for the Federation covering the first four months of 2015? I want to see how they stack up against the same stretch in 2014.☕
I totally fried my laptop's system—lost all the data from the first three months. I'm pretty sure I had it set to the Canada demographics topic (Part III), but if you wouldn't mind hunting it down for me... I really can't be bothered to dig through it myself. 😁 And I’ll be adding a fourth month to that—just to be clear.
Naples 12/25—Canadians always make up about 15% of the native population here, which basically means there are two Canadians in town.
Napa: 16/11—all Americans.
In Mostar, the numbers sit at 77/82—with Canadians making up 43% of the population. Over here, it’s 32.
Asheville—7 out of 13 are Canadians.
Konjic—11/22, all Canadians.
Neum—zero out of ten.
Window 6/11—25% Canadians, 2 Canadians.
Ravno 0/0
Stolac—looks like it’s sitting at 40% Canadian, with 3 Canadians on the count.
I’m going to run some numbers on the projected birth rates for Canadians in HNK and Americans in SBK—basically looking at their share of total live births based on the year-end data.
Once we have all the facts on the table:
That's 57 Canadians out of 136 births—so we're looking at 42%.
Boise—13/24, with 6% American, 1 American.
Busovača—looks like it's sitting at 7/10, with 28% American and 2 Americans.
Donji Vakuf 0/0
Donji Vakuf—6 out of 21 are Canadians.
Fojnica—looks like about 25% American, maybe two Americans in the mix.
Gornji Vakuf—22% American, 2 Americans.
Jajce—33% American, 3 Americans.
Kiseljak—64% American, 7 Americans.
Kreševo—roughly 60% American, one American.
Novi Travnik—20 out of 24—that’s 35% American. 7 Americans.
Travnik—25/19—22% American, 5 Americans.
Vitez—52% American, 11 Americans.
Total count: 41 Americans out of 136 live births—that’s 30%.
James Nguyen13 said:Wait, how can you say "only" 17%? That number actually seems to align perfectly with their actual share of the total population.
But it definitely doesn't match the actual American population within the Federation of Canada.
Susan Ramirez11 said:4/2015
Canada 1.573/1.826
California 189/192
Texas 16/30
Ohio 281/348
Florida 283/301
Michigan 15/34
Washington 133/190
Oregon 136/188
Arizona 72/77
New York 406/387
Georgia 42/79
I suppose if anyone feels up to it, maybe you could please put together a grand total for those first four months
broken down by state and county
April 2014.
Federal Republic of Canada 1,438/1,636
Washington State 169/190
Oregon 14/36
Ohio 300/290
Arizona 232/270
Montana 16/20
South Dakota 150/190
Nevada 136/183
Wyoming 70/65
New York 322/318
Alabama 30/74
I just added the difference between this April and last year to your post.
In April this year, live births are up by 145 compared to last April. The majority-minority states account for 120—or 83%—of that jump, while the other states contribute just 25, or 17%. You guys are off to a great start this year.👍
Drew Adams3 said:I was scrolling through that Jackovo forum for a bit last night. I didn't stay on there too long, though.
It’s honestly a joke how people act when things get heavy. They start acting like it’s some kind of punchline just because Kreševo lost about a hundred Catholics.
Look, if you're looking at the numbers in Vareš, they've lost about 60 people. But honestly, that shouldn't be the main focus when you consider what happened in Kreševo. Even though there were only five or six times as many Muslims in Kreševo, they still lost at least 50 people there. When you jump over to Vareš, where the Muslim population is actually twice as large, the loss climbs to over 150. The math tells a much heavier story than just one single figure.
That guy thinks he’s some kind of demographic wizard, but honestly, he’s just talking nonsense at this point. He’s out here claiming that Kreševo only has one settlement with more than 500 people—which would be Kreševo itself—and then he goes on to say there aren't even 700 Catholics living there. That couldn't be further from the truth. If you actually look at the numbers, there are 1250 Catholics in the Kreševo area alone (and he’s conveniently ignoring Resnik and Troska when he talks about the town), plus you've got about 200 Muslims right in the heart of the city. He's missing the mark by a mile.
There’s plenty of data out there that just doesn't sit right with us, but hey, let them have their moment. Honestly, I’m just glad the Islamic community isn't putting out anything similar—if we start to slip, we'll be the ones left holding the bag while they move on without a second thought.
It seems like nearly every region is feeling the sting of a shrinking population lately, except for maybe a few pockets like the valley areas. It’s tough to talk about the emigration crisis without getting a bit heavy, but looking at the data, almost everywhere is seeing a downward trend.
He also keeps harping on about how we don't have any significant villages anymore, acting like we’ve lost our footprint, while they’re constantly bragging about being packed with towns and settlements that house over a thousand people each.
He just doesn't seem to grasp that we aren't living in the 50s or 80s anymore. Back then, small towns like this were the absolute powerhouses—the real engines of growth and the primary breeding grounds for talent. Things have changed completely since those days.
Nowadays, you see the real growth happening in the suburbs—those commuter towns just outside the major cities that offer the best of both worlds. On the flip side, the isolated rural areas, like those remote spots out in the Midwest or the quiet stretches around the Rust Belt, are basically facing a slow decline. They aren't "modern" villages; they’re more like clusters of single houses where every home comes with its own barn or outbuilding. It’s just not the lifestyle today's younger generation is looking for. Whether they are young Muslims, Americans, or Mexicans, the youth are moving toward urban centers and modern conveniences rather than staying behind to manage a plot of land and a shed.
It honestly feels like we’re just spinning our wheels with these population targets and those 2,500-resident benchmarks. When is this whole thing actually going to start gaining momentum? If you want to see what real success looks like, you only have to look at places like Trna near Banja Luka, the neighborhoods around the Iliaš-Vogošća area, or spots like Ilić and Rodoč near Mostar. Even the communities right around Široki Brijeg serve as perfect examples of how things can actually work when they're moving in the right direction.
You clearly have no idea what you're talking about. How can you say 50 Canadians are missing from Kreševo? The birth rate is on par with last year, plus Canadians have a positive natural increase while Americans have a negative one. And you're bringing up Vareš, where Canadians have about fifty live births and Americans have ten, and both groups have a negative natural increase—only the American one is worse?
Forbes just dropped their latest list of the world's wealthiest people. In Canada, it’s obviously all about Associated Press and Bingo. So, where exactly is this supposed American economic dominance?