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Posts by Timothy Nelson5

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Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
electricsurfer47 Asks:
I guess Americans will keep footing the bill for this. If they don't step up, they risk losing what might be their most vital ally, even if—and this is a big if—that ally isn't exactly the most reliable partner in the room. Maybe.

Who actually needs whom more? I mean, if you really sit back and look at the global chessboard, it’s hard to tell where the dependency ends and the leverage begins. It's all just layers of mutual necessity, I suppose. Maybe we think we're calling the shots, but everything is so interconnected now that nobody is truly standing on their own. I guess it's just one big, messy web of being stuck with each other.

I guess if things keep going the way they are, the Saudi people might just end up turning toward the Russians. Maybe. It’s hard to say for sure, but I suppose that's where the wind is blowing.

As for that Russia entity... you know, the one that can't seem to actually flatten a much smaller Ukraine right on its own doorstep? I guess it’s a bit of a mess.
It’s kind of wild when you really sit back and look at the situation. You have Russia sitting there under all these sanctions, yet they can't even manage to build their own tanks or keep their planes in the air without Western parts. It’s a mess, I guess. They’re actually having to buy kamikaze drones from Iran because they’ve completely burned through their own stockpiles of cruise missiles. And then, to top it all off, they're importing artillery shells from South Korea and Belarus just to keep things moving. It’s a strange, desperate loop, maybe.

Projecting military power? Like... the Navy? I guess that's what we're talking about now. Maybe.
The only carrier we have left is stuck in dry dock for repairs, and honestly, after that second fire recently, I’m starting to wonder if it's even worth the effort. The rest of the fleet? They’ve already burned through way too many cruise missiles. Everything feels poorly maintained, almost neglected. I wouldn't be surprised if half those ships just started taking on water halfway to the Gulf. You'd probably see them being towed along by tugboats, looking about as effective as those Ukrainian tractors dragging away busted Russian tanks.
🙂

I suppose there's a real argument to be made that both Europe and the US need to find some other way to power our lives instead of being so heavily reliant on Saudi Arabia. It feels like we're constantly tethered to them, and I can't help but wonder if there's a more sustainable path forward that doesn't involve such deep dependence. Maybe.

It feels like we're moving away from that old dependency on Saudi Arabia, I guess. Maybe the US isn't as tied to them as it used to be... though the European Union still seems to have a bit of a lingering connection there. Or maybe I'm just overthinking it. It's hard to say for sure.

The European Union really leaned way too hard on Russian gas and oil. I guess you could say they put all their eggs in one basket, and that basket was tied directly to Moscow. It’s a bit of a mess, honestly. Maybe they just didn't see it coming, or maybe they just didn't want to look too closely at how much they were depending on it. Either way, it left them pretty vulnerable.
I mean, I guess that's why the sanctions are moving at such a snail's pace. It just feels like everything is dragging on forever.
The moment when, say, the people of Venezuela finally hang their communist dictator and get production back online... honestly, the West wouldn't have to rely on the Middle East nearly as much. We wouldn't need to lean on Russia either. I mean, if we could just actually allow fracking in Europe, things might look a lot different. Maybe. I guess that’s just how it goes.

It might sound like nothing more than a pipe dream, I guess, but there’s a real argument to be made that electric vehicles are the way forward—if we actually want to stop being so incredibly dependent on foreign energy interests.

The whole Green New Deal fantasy... honestly, thinking we can just run cars on coal? It's a complete pipe dream. 🙂
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
George Robinson43 said:Let’s be honest here. This is the actual oil production in Saudi Arabia for 2022:
January: 10.16 million barrels
February: 10.2 million
March: 10.3 million
April: 10.42 million
May: 10.55 million
June: 10.62 million
July: 10.82 million
August: 11.3 million
September: 11.1 million
October: 10.8 million

The talk of production cuts only started because everyone was forecasting a recession, seeing orders drop from China, and wanting to prevent a price collapse.
November: 10.45 million

Biden requested 12 million per day, but he was told it wasn't necessary—meaning prices are headed down, and the Arabs were right all along.
I am almost certain prices would be under $60 if Americans weren't busy refilling the strategic reserves.

The thing is, the Saudis were being pretty calculating here. They didn't bump up production, and instead, they signaled they’d try to keep prices from spiraling out of control.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/...de-oil-prices/

Looking at this graph, it seems like they were just looking out for themselves. They kept production intentionally low enough to create market uncertainty, which basically lets speculators drive prices through the roof.

If they had actually stepped up and said they'd maximize production to stabilize things, we probably wouldn't be seeing this kind of volatility at all. I guess.

That announcement about cutting back comes because people were talking about a recession, orders dropping from China, and wanting to stop a price collapse.
November 10.45 million

The reason behind it is that the USA increased their own production:
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-...20expectations.

And everyone else was doing as much as they possibly could, too.
It feels especially wrong when you see various European Union politicians and Putin-like mercenaries blaming the USA instead of Saudi Arabia.

Joe Biden asked for 12 million a day, but he was told it wasn't necessary—meaning prices would drop, so the Arabs were right.

Maybe senile Biden is the main culprit for this whole mess, including the war in Ukraine. It’s him and his clueless cronies, their Green New Deal, and the veto on the Keystone pipeline and fracking on federal land.
If a nationalist like Donald Trump had stayed in office, US fracking might have climbed to 16-17 MBBL/d—at least according to projections—and maybe Vladimir Putin wouldn't have had the nerve to gamble on a war under those circumstances.

I’m almost certain prices would be under $60 if Americans weren't filling up the reserves.

But what would be so bad about that? I mean, really.

The fact that energy prices went crazy during the first six months is exactly what allowed Russia to fund the war in Ukraine.
If the world had been more united, and if everyone who could have increased production had done so to steady the market, prices wouldn't have spiked. If that happened, the sanctions against Russia and the limits on their oil and gas prices would have been even more intense.
Russia would have run out of war money much sooner,
and maybe we'd already be negotiating a lasting peace.
With 100,000 fewer dead.

And yeah—anyone can reasonably argue that it's perfectly fine for Saudi Arabia to look out for its own interests.
That’s exactly right.
But honestly, when that Iranian terrorist regime eventually goes after those Saudi refineries or tankers, they shouldn't be looking to Uncle Sam or the West to come running to defend a feudal monarchy.

Maybe some new president—someone other than this senile Biden—could just tell the Saudis, "Look, back when we actually needed you to cooperate and help us out, you basically screwed us over just to stack your own cash."
"Because of that, we had to dump hundreds of billions in military aid into Ukraine, and frankly, we don't have the desire or the capacity to keep propping you guys up anymore."
"Since you made your money, you can go ahead and buy your own high-end, battle-tested American hardware—the kind that’s already proven its worth in the war in Ukraine."

☕
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Andrew Booth29 said:Yeah, a cold front could certainly roll in, but the warehouses are packed to the brim because of this warm spell. Every extra week of warmth is a win. If this keeps up just a little longer, we might actually be out of the woods. 😬

Then you’ve got all these recessionary hints, China dealing with COVID...
The Saudi leadership has been playing a sneaky game with the West, cutting production right when the crisis hit hardest... even that senile Biden went there in person to practically beg them to ramp up, but they just brushed him off.
Back then, Trump—being the statesman he is—just posted on Twitter that Saudi Arabia needs to boost oil production because of those hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, and they did it without even blinking.
Now, I guess American fracking might see a resurgence, and honestly, the green energy crowd could probably stop dodging accountability for their part in this mess and start focusing on policies that actually matter...

All in all, natural gas might just tank before summer hits.
And oil will likely follow suit.

As for Russian prices, the West can always make sure they stay well below market rates. Even if Putin tried his absolute hardest, he couldn't change that. 😁
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Deere (No input text provided to rewrite.)
It honestly baffles me how they went after private assets first before even touching state funds. I mean, logically, wouldn't it make more sense to freeze everything right out of the gate—which, okay, they did—but then prioritize seizing government money? After all, the federal government is the one actually responsible for kicking this war off in the first place. You can grab private cash, sure, but that’s just going to drag on through the courts forever because everyone will be arguing they have absolutely nothing to do with what the US government is doing. It feels like a mess.

They probably went after the assets that were easiest to grab right off the top... I mean, it makes sense, I guess. They likely made sure to steer clear of any businesses or property owned by Russians who aren't exactly on speaking terms with the ruling elite back in Russia—though, let's be honest, there aren't many of those people left anyway.
Those folks looking to drag this all into court... I mean, they’d essentially have to prove a negative, wouldn't they? They'd have to demonstrate that they aren't... well, whatever it is they're being accused of. It's a bit of a circular trap, I suppose. Maybe. It just seems like an uphill battle from the start.

On the other hand, I suppose there’s a certain logic to it... maybe they think the oligarchs will put enough pressure on Putin to force his hand. It's possible that leaving their money alone at first could act as some kind of bait—a way to tempt him into walking away from the war. After all, he knows exactly what's coming if he keeps this up. I guess.

👍

Whatever the case may be, I imagine China is watching everything happening with those Russian foreign exchange reserves with a great deal of interest. Maybe they're just waiting to see how the dust settles.

The Chinese seem to be watching how the West reacts quite closely... I suppose they’re measuring us, really. They're gauging whether we actually have the stomach for it, using that observation to decide if they should ever truly commit to a Taiwanese adventure. It's all about testing the waters, I guess.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
casualtiger2 said:Will Russia even make it to 2084?

The title doesn't really mean much, I guess.
The real question is whether any modern nation-state will actually still exist by 2084.

As for Russia... maybe we should just be asking if they’ll survive until 2024.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Jacob Cooper5 said:Russia can't just pull this off by pivoting their trade toward China—not without building an entirely new network of pipelines to get everything there. We're talking about massive infrastructure projects that take years, if not decades, to actually complete. No matter what kind of deal they try to strike with Beijing right now, trying to reroute their entire energy backbone on the fly isn't going to change the outcome of this war... it's just not happening.
Honestly, Russia has already lost. Dealing with China is a losing game because when you're as desperate as Russia is right now, China can basically dictate whatever terms they want. They could even start tanking fuel prices on them whenever they feel like it... and there wouldn't be much anyone could do about it.

Honestly, I think things are even bleaker than that.
The whole Russian economic resurgence they saw was really only possible because Western tech significantly boosted their ability to pump and move oil and gas in the first place.

With these sanctions in play, it’s not just that those new pipelines to China are basically a pipe dream; it’s that keeping the current infrastructure running is becoming a massive headache. We're probably going to see more and more breakdowns, and eventually, there won't be any spare parts left to fix them...

And without that energy export money flowing in, the Russian regime is pretty much finished.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Donna Harris11 said:Not everyone has the budget for a Black Hawk or an F-35.
Honestly, if they actually had the cash, most of them would probably just grab a Mi-8 or some kind of Sukhoi, but they aren't allowed to. Just look at what happened with Huawei

In geopolitics, I guess market laws and basic economic logic just don't really matter.

I mean, you could always just pick up some F-16s, or maybe just fewer units altogether...

truth be told, if they had the choice, most would probably just grab a Mi-8 or some kind of Sukhoi.

But now that Russia is facing all those sanctions, plenty of buyers are realizing that a lot of the components for their high-end gear actually have... well, Western origins.

, but they aren't allowed to use them. Just look at what happened with Huawei.

In the world of geopolitics, market laws and economic logic don't really matter much, do they?

Exactly.
A huge part of ordering weapons is really just a political move—it’s how you signal who you see as an ally and who you see as the enemy. There used to be this gray area between those two extremes...
But now that Russia has jumped into this whole war adventure, that gray area seems to have shrunk quite a bit.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
analogbear5 said:Back to the main point—what’s your take on where the Russian military-industrial complex is headed, and what does the future look like for their arms exports?

image

Right now, they're mostly just importers.

If you want to actually export anything meaningful, you need access to Western components... and as long as these sanctions are in place, that's basically a zero percent chance. I guess.

And honestly, I can't imagine who would be lining up to buy Russian hardware after everything that's happened in this war... maybe nobody at all.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
George Robinson43 said:Brent has dipped to $82, while WTI is sitting at $76.

ExxonMobil isn't budging on that $3.25 mark. 🤣

Once ExxonMobil finally lowers prices, the government will probably just hike up the excise taxes anyway.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Anthony Hill5 said:Building upon my previous observations, we are witnessing exactly what was predicted.

Oil prices have plummeted significantly

On global markets, oil prices fell sharply last week as traders grew increasingly anxious over heightened recessionary risks across various economies, which could trigger a weakening demand for 'black gold.' On the London market, the price per barrel dropped by 6.4 percent last week to $91.63, while on the American market, the barrel saw a 7.6 percent decrease to $85.60.

Following a surge of over 10 percent just a week prior, oil prices tumbled last week because of growing concerns regarding a potential global recession that would lead to diminished oil demand.


Putin will be forced to pick up the phone and call the Prince of Saudi Arabia once again to demand further production cuts; otherwise, he will find himself selling barrels of Ural at discount prices for the cost of a bag of beans.

The Saudi prince has been getting plenty of heat from the West over those recent moves.
I'm not entirely sure they'll jump to repeat that move so quickly, unless, I guess, oil prices truly go into a total freefall.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5 in War in Ukraine ·
swiftdrifter8 said:I get that it’s hard for people to believe I’m not picking sides here, but look at the facts: the Russian military managed to seize four Ukrainian provinces in just six months. Meanwhile, the US spent over a decade playing games in Muslim countries, which mostly ended with them retreating empty-handed. Whether intentional or not, those are just my observations.

The moment Russia starts truly losing, China will make its move on Taiwan.
History shows us that communists don't value human life at all; if they need to sacrifice 5 million Russians or Chinese citizens to keep the communist machine running, they'll do it without blinking.

It’s almost like you’re saying:

I’m an official, certified troll with a handful of posts who fully supports Russia's criminal aggression against Ukraine...

☕
Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5 in War in Ukraine ·
Grace Jones86 said:Why does it end there?
What good are twenty or fifty potential Ukrainian nukes against thousands from Russia?
Nothing.

It still boils down to X thousand Americans versus X thousand Russians.

If we are talking about full-scale nuclear madness.
A handful of nukes in Ukraine won't change a thing. And let's not even get into why this is in NOBODY'S interest... for countless reasons.

The US knows that Ukraine is actually a chaotic, disorganized, nearly unformed state riddled with corruption at every single level. They don't need fools like that holding nukes.

They already have enough to deal with, like having to manage Israel and their nukes and everything else.

A balance of terror, I suppose.

If Putin hits a Ukrainian brigade near Liman with a tactical strike, the Ukrainians hit a Russian brigade near St. Louis.

Then you get this massive shockwave within Russia itself.
If they start hitting Kyiv or Lviv, the Ukrainians could potentially retaliate against Moscow or New York City.

In Russia, you'd likely see a domestic uprising, and I imagine plenty in the armed forces would refuse to escalate things to a nuclear level.

Even now, since mobilization started, it seems like regular citizens in Russia were pretty willing to support the aggression against Ukraine—until it starts hitting them personally.
And the ruling elites, too, I think.
Faced with the prospect of a nuclear holocaust, many would probably start questioning if this is all worth it, just to feed Putin's ego.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5 in War in Ukraine ·
Zachary Jackson4 said:https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2022/09/30/7369807/

Putin dismisses nuclear threats: We have no interest in pursuing this topic

I suppose he received some pretty clear signals through backchannels that the "decaying" West isn't going to sit idly by if nukes actually get used.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5 in War in Ukraine ·
steelheron25 said:The situation is perilous for a multitude of reasons.
While that creep still had some rather shaky arguments regarding Crimea, what possible arguments does he have for Zaporizhzhia? It is historically, undeniably part of Ukraine.
Had he not taken such a massive hit to his ego a few weeks ago, who is to say he wouldn't be eyeing Kharkiv next?
It is glaringly obvious that he is reaching for the entire region. What does this imply? That there is no end to this war until that naked little scoundrel finally sinks his teeth into Zaporizhzhia while riding his Siberian bear, or whatever pet he happens to be using these days.
Even if that bastard were to vanish tomorrow, what is the official stance of the Russian state on all of this? Is there anyone there sensible enough to simply tear up those annexation papers and say, "forget about it"? Until then, this war could drag on indefinitely; even after the Russians are driven out of Ukraine, every future Russian government will likely view those annexed territories as their own.
That idiot should have been removed by summary judgment back in 2014, or perhaps even earlier, because the entire world is going to find it incredibly difficult to crawl out of this mess.
For those currently burying their heads in the sand: if this is allowed to pass, what arguments will any nation have left to defend itself against neighbors gripped by collective madness in the future?

Crimea was always such a unique case, I suppose. Russia actually had a decent majority there, and they held that referendum—which, okay, wasn't exactly up to top-tier democratic standards, but it still showed those people wanted to be part of Russia. Then you have the historical context, where back in '56, the party leadership basically handed it over to Ukraine as a mere formality...

But these current "referendums"? They're just a complete joke.
There's really no way the rest of the world is ever going to recognize that circus.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5 in War in Ukraine ·
brightheron64 said:


Can you handle this one?

President Biden made it quite clear regarding the Nord Stream 2 Pipeline if Russia Invades Ukraine... he essentially stated that if we see Russian tanks or troops actually crossing the border of Ukraine again, then there simply won't be a Nord Stream 2 anymore, because we are going to ensure its end...
If the Russians decide to invade—and I mean actual tanks or troops crossing the Ukrainian border once again—then the Nord Stream 2 project is officially dead in the water. We will make sure it comes to an absolute end...

When people press him on the specifics of how he actually plans to pull it off, the President just looks them in the eye and offers this unwavering assurance, saying, "I promise you, we will be able to do that..."


I just finished watching this video, and I have to say, it really gives you a lot to chew on regarding everything happening right now... It’s one of those pieces that stays with you, making you look at the broader geopolitical landscape through a completely different lens than what we usually see on the nightly news... The way they break down the complexities of the situation in Ukraine and how it ties back to our own interests here in the States is honestly quite profound... It makes you wonder how much more of this tension we can absorb before the entire structure shifts under our feet...

According to the Omni calculator...

A magnitude of 2.1 on the Richter scale... that actually translates to about 21.3 kg of TNT...
A magnitude of 2.3 on the Richter scale actually equates to roughly 42.5 kg of TNT...

Just for a bit of perspective on what we’re looking at... a 5.5 magnitude earthquake in Washington, D.C., would be roughly equivalent to 2,681,688 kg of TNT, which is about 0.18 of the energy released by the Hiroshima blast...

If you're looking to wrap your head around how we actually measure seismic activity, I highly recommend checking out this resource on Omni... it provides a really clear breakdown of how the Richter scale functions, which can be quite helpful when you're trying to grasp the sheer magnitude of these events...

German... I’ve been thinking quite a bit about the mechanics behind a shaped charge lately... there is just something so fundamentally fascinating about how a concentrated burst of energy can be directed with such surgical precision through geometry alone... it really makes you wonder about the sheer physics involved when you consider how much force can be focused onto a single point... It’s about 27 pounds... just like back at Eben Emael...

image

The result—and just to clarify, this smaller hole is actually where the machine gun mount was seated, rather than being caused by an explosion itself...
image

Can you handle this one?

President Biden made it quite clear regarding the Nord Stream 2 Pipeline if Russia Invades Ukraine... he essentially stated that if we see Russian tanks or troops actually crossing the border of Ukraine again, then there simply won't be a Nord Stream 2 anymore, because we are going to ensure its end...
If the Russians decide to invade—and I mean actual tanks or troops crossing the Ukrainian border once again—then the Nord Stream 2 project is officially dead in the water. We will make sure it comes to an absolute end...

When people press him on the specifics of how he actually plans to pull it off, the President just looks them in the eye and offers this unwavering assurance, saying, "I promise you, we will be able to do that..."


I just finished watching this video, and I have to say, it really gives you a lot to chew on regarding everything happening right now... It’s one of those pieces that stays with you, making you look at the broader geopolitical landscape through a completely different lens than what we usually see on the nightly news... The way they break down the complexities of the situation in Ukraine and how it ties back to our own interests here in the States is honestly quite profound... It makes you wonder how much more of this tension we can absorb before the entire structure shifts under our feet...

According to the Omni calculator...

A magnitude of 2.1 on the Richter scale... that actually translates to about 21.3 kg of TNT...
A magnitude of 2.3 on the Richter scale actually equates to roughly 42.5 kg of TNT...

Just for a bit of perspective on what we’re looking at... a 5.5 magnitude earthquake in Washington, D.C., would be roughly equivalent to 2,681,688 kg of TNT, which is about 0.18 of the energy released by the Hiroshima blast...

If you're looking to wrap your head around how we actually measure seismic activity, I highly recommend checking out this resource on Omni... it provides a really clear breakdown of how the Richter scale functions, which can be quite helpful when you're trying to grasp the sheer magnitude of these events...

German... I’ve been thinking quite a bit about the mechanics behind a shaped charge lately... there is just something so fundamentally fascinating about how a concentrated burst of energy can be directed with such surgical precision through geometry alone... it really makes you wonder about the sheer physics involved when you consider how much force can be focused onto a single point... It’s about 27 pounds... just like back at Eben Emael...

image

The result—and just to clarify, this smaller hole is actually where the machine gun mount was seated, rather than being caused by an explosion itself...
image
No.

A 2 on the Richter scale is actually 1 ton of TNT.
A 3 on the Richter scale hits like 32 tons of TNT.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5 in War in Ukraine ·
Christian Torres3 said:It makes no sense for Russia to invade Ukraine just to have this happen.

And I haven't even heard the wild theories yet about how Americans would somehow drop explosives 80 or 90 meters deep into the freezing Baltic Sea. For the people dreaming up scenarios involving drones bought on eBay or AliExpress, you realize those explosions were only 2.1 or 2.2 on the Richter scale, right? How much explosive do you even need for that? Five kilograms?

Force of the blast A 2.1 to 2.2 on the Richter scale is roughly equivalent to an explosion of 1,500 to 2,500 kg of TNT.

That’s... well, it's probably about 7 to 10 times more than what your average heavy torpedo puts out.

Even the pipeline itself could probably be torn apart by a simple 10 kg shaped charge placed directly against the pipe.

So, if this was actual targeted sabotage, a relatively small mine would have done the trick.

It seems unlikely that someone just went out and planted such a massive amount of explosives right now.
I guess it's much more likely that this was set up a long time ago—maybe even before the pipeline was even laid down there.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5 in War in Ukraine ·
Susan Collins3 said:It’s a total blowout, honestly—like the old guard from Joža Manolić's era. I mean, they're actually mobilizing guys who were fighting in Afghanistan forty years ago and somehow haven't kicked the bucket yet. No wonder you see mobilized dudes dropping dead from heart attacks left and right.

But seriously, this stuff is pretty sketchy. It looks like Russia is heading toward full-blown mobilization, maybe even over a million people. Sending grandpas, barbers, and other random, incompetent folks to the front line is just going to spike the body count, which I guess will force a response from the Ukrainian side. Then everything could spiral into a total meat grinder, kind of like WWI. Basically, Putin is betting everything the Russian Federation has left on a few weeks of progress, hoping for a big win, while all his sycophants just sit there watching and staying quiet.

Alright, look, all those Twitter feeds showing rusted-out AKs, elderly men being drafted, and crews stumbling around drunk while talking about basic supplies... maybe it isn't like that everywhere. I guess.

But honestly, just the fact that this kind of thing is happening at all proves how much of a farce this whole pompous mobilization effort really is.
If they couldn't even manage to equip the first 300,000 people—mostly guys in their late 20s or early 30s—with decent rifles, uniforms, boots, or even basic medkits... I don't know how they expect to supply the next million.

There will likely be over a million mobilized. Sending grandfathers, barbers, and other incompetent folks to the front line will probably just drive up the casualty counts. That usually leads to escalation, and I suppose Ukraine might eventually have to find some sort of response to that.

A mass of poorly armed and untrained soldiers provides zero benefit on the battlefield.
Mostly, they're just a logistical nightmare.
The Ukrainians won't even have to do much, other than figure out how to handle a massive influx of prisoners.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5 in War in Ukraine ·
Daniel Ward87 said:It’s technically possible for them to pull it off. But honestly, I feel like doing that would just sabotage NATO and the European Union itself. That’s why the idea of it being them seems crazy to me. Ever since that whole scandal involving spying on Merkel, it feels like the US is actually pretty careful about how they handle the EU. Unless, of course, this is part of some massive master plan we haven't even dreamed up yet. Still, my money is on the Russians.

Sabotaging critical energy infrastructure like that... there is no way official American policy would ever authorize it.
There isn't a theoretical chance in hell. A decision like that would have to come from the very top of the chain of command; you can't just have some rogue CIA agent deciding to pull something like this on their own.

It’s obviously Putin.

And besides, why assume the mine was planted just now?
It could have been sitting there for eight months.
The Russians—well, the Soviets—were doing things like this back during World War II.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5 in War in Ukraine ·
Nancy Gomez26 said:Today I learned that you can't trust YouTube 'translations' for anything. You have to listen to the original speakers and watch their mouths—to see if what you're hearing is actually what they are saying. What we saw before was a mild horror show; those subtitles had absolutely nothing to do with what people were actually saying on screen. The Russians lie through propaganda, sure, but this is just as cheap a fabrication regardless of who is behind it or what their motives might be. The Russians don't even need extra help planting lies; they discredit themselves plenty well enough on their own. Instead, they try to play the 'victim' of someone else's planted misinformation. In the end, they'll claim everything was maliciously planted by some outside force, leaving everyone wondering, 'Who's really pulling the strings here?'

And how many times have we all laughed at those various takes on Hitler's outbursts—you know, the whole...
- Nein! Nein! Nein!Nein!Nein!
😉

You really have to listen to the actual speakers and watch their mouths to see if what you're hearing is actually what they're saying. What we saw before was just a nightmare; the subtitles had absolutely nothing to do with what the people on the show were actually uttering. I mean, Russians lie for propaganda, sure, but this kind of cheap fabrication is just as bad, regardless of who is behind it or what their motives might be.

I watched the original video before this parody came out, and I realized pretty quickly that it wasn't real.
The real issue, I guess, is that nobody bothered to mention it was a parody.

The most absurd part is that the fake subtitles don't even look *that* unbelievable when you consider how much garbage most of these people on that show spout anyway.

The Russians don't even need to plant extra lies; they discredit themselves plenty well enough as it is—and doing this just makes them look like 'victims' of someone else's setup.

That’s true. Too often, these guys just end up putting their own feet in their mouths.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5 in War in Ukraine ·
Nathan Evans78 said:The TTF gas prices for November and December '22 are already screaming past €220. Remember those "experts" who were lecturing us here, claiming that once the European Union hits its storage targets, gas prices would just naturally plummet?

Honestly, Germany is basically leaving things up to God at this point. If we get hit with a brutal cold snap, it won't matter if they burn through every last reserve they have—they won't be able to bring market prices down to anything remotely sustainable. ☕

I guess the most likely reason behind this pipeline sabotage is that Putin is getting desperate. Prices are stabilizing and stagnating now that Europe has filled its reserves up to 90%.
So, he’s probably just trying to stir up panic again to drive prices back up.

But then again, market logic is pretty relentless.

Wealthy Europe can afford to pay the high prices, but the rest of the world... well, maybe not so much.

The USA, acting as the main arms supplier for Ukraine, has plenty of gas for export too. If it wasn't for a senile Biden immediately halting the construction of LNG terminals and pipelines here in the States, the USA could probably be covering about 80% of what Europe used to get from Russia today.

Germany is basically relying on Bog at this point. Like, if it gets cold, even burning through every last reserve won't bring gas prices back down to a sustainable level.☕

Once they deal with those radical Greens in Germany, things might finally return to normal. Maybe.