Posts by Timothy Nelson5

Bryan Jones82 said:He announced mobilization (calling it partial)

He’s going all in.
It’s all or nothing at this point.

Nancy Gomez26 said:It seems to me they’re still agonizing over which version of the announcement to release. The shortlist appears to be down to two options: one involving mobilization orders, and another that opens with: following a long and grueling illness, the President has passed away... We’ll have to wait until morning to see which script becomes reality. After all, waiting until dawn is always more prudent than deciding in the evening.

All jokes aside, though, something genuinely strange is unfolding here.

For instance, maybe Putler was banking on announcing a mobilization and having the masses cheer him on... but instead, the stock market took a hit, and most of the reaction was pretty negative...

So, perhaps the leader had a bit of second thought...

🍿

steelheron25 said:The reality is, any and all forms of American assistance will evaporate into thin air the very instant Ukrainians decide to go rogue and embark on some reckless nuclear adventure of their own volition.

You can take that to the bank.

Right.
Like how the USA just stopped helping Israel, for instance...

And I don't think Ukrainians would ever actually threaten anyone... they'd probably just announce they have them, and let the Russians sit there wondering what happens next...

Melissa Rivera5 said:Nah, man, you can't just pull that off during peacetime without getting absolutely wrecked, let alone in the middle of a war. Maybe if they had some leftover bombs from the USSR era (since they don't have them all), but like people suggested before, making a dirty bomb is way more effective. Either way, using that kind of stuff is either the move of someone desperate or just a total idiot. If a dirty bomb hits Moscow tomorrow, that’s pretty much it—Ukraine goes down regardless of what it costs them, and I think everyone realizes that.

I mean, Israel basically set up their own version of the South African apartheid regime about forty years ago...

wiredtiger8 said:Look, we’re talking about a timeline of over 30 years here. This didn't just happen "yesterday"—you can't just find those kinds of specialists lying around on every street corner.

And I really don't buy the idea that the West—specifically the US—would ever look kindly on Ukraine becoming some kind of new nuclear power. It’s just not in their interest, and you can bet your life they wouldn't let it happen.

Besides, if things actually turn out well for them, Ukraine is likely going to emerge from this whole mess as the number two military powerhouse in the world... I mean, just look at the sheer volume and type of hardware they're being handed.

They haven't vanished.

And I don't really buy the idea that the West—specifically the US—would be okay with Ukraine becoming another nuclear power. It doesn't serve their interests, and honestly, they probably wouldn't allow it.

Under normal circumstances, yeah, absolutely not.
But things aren't exactly normal right now, and they certainly wouldn't be if Putin makes a serious threat.

Using the threat of Ukraine becoming a nuclear power as leverage... I guess that's just more nonsense for the Russians to deal with. For the US, it might actually be a better move to let Ukraine handle it themselves rather than getting directly involved—at least for as long as they can manage to stay out of it.

I guess I should start by saying that everything we think we know about this situation is probably just a surface-level glance at a much deeper, messier reality. It’s easy to get caught up in the headlines, but if you sit back and really look at the mechanics of how things move on the global stage, it’s all a bit more complicated than the news makes it out to be. Maybe. Or maybe I'm just being overly cautious. Regardless, there's a certain weight to these events that doesn't always translate to the soundbites we see on TV. It feels like we're watching a slow-motion collision where nobody actually knows when the impact is going to happen. Just my two cents, anyway.

wiredtiger8 said:You make it sound like they’ll just whip up "a few units" overnight... as if one crew is assembling nukes while the other is busy spinning a pig on a spit...😁

Look, matter of fact or not, you can't just "wing it."

I mean, Iran has the "knowledge" too—I mean, any physicist worth their salt knows the theory behind building a nuclear bomb—they've got the cash, the centrifuges... they've been grinding away at a bomb for ten years now, and yet, here we are, and they still don't have one...

First off, it's not exactly like this all happened overnight—it’s not like this war just kicked off six months ago. I mean, if you look at the timeline, this whole thing actually started eight years back.

Second off, it isn't even as if Ukraine would be breaking some kind of international legal norm or anything like that. I guess. Maybe. It just doesn't seem that way to me.
They were essentially just the nuclear successor to the USSR, I suppose.
They just walked away from it. Or maybe they gave up on it entirely. I guess you could say they renounced it, though I'm not entirely sure if that's the right word for it. It feels more like they just let it slip through their fingers. Maybe. voluntary... in exchange for... Guarantees... I suppose that’s what we’re talking about now. It’s a heavy word, isn't it? People toss it around like it actually means something in this day and age. Back in the day, you could take a man's word or a signed contract and feel some semblance of security, but now? Everything feels conditional. Everything comes with a massive asterisk attached to the fine print. I guess we just assume things will hold up, but history usually has other plans. Maybe we're all just being a bit too optimistic. Or maybe we're just tired of being disappointed. Hard to say.The guarantees have been broken, I suppose. It seems the Ukrainian side isn't even trying to hide their position anymore—they’re basically claiming they have every right to go nuclear now.
I know some people are going to get worked up about this, and they probably will, but honestly? If Russia starts making those nuclear threats, I don't see anyone in the West actually having the guts to tell Ukraine "no." It’s a messy situation, I guess... maybe even more complicated than it looks on the surface, but the reality is likely that nobody is going to push back against that kind of leverage.

Thirdly.
They’ve got quite a few nuclear facilities scattered around, I suppose... everything from the major power plants to those various processing sites. It's a lot to keep track of, really.
There are thousands of specialists out there who have spent their entire careers working in those facilities—everything from the enrichment processes to handling weapon-grade materials, all the way down to the actual construction of the nuclear warheads themselves. I guess you could say they know where all the bodies are buried.

Who knows how much leftover material or old technology actually ended up sitting around in those facilities... and honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if some warhead from back in the day is just tucked away somewhere, hidden out of sight. Maybe. It's hard to say.

I suppose there isn't much left to say, really. Everything just feels like it's circling the drain at this point. I guess I'll just leave it at that.

I mean, look at Iran. They’ve got the "know-how"—I suppose any decent physicist can wrap their head around the theory behind building a nuclear bomb—they have the cash, they have the centrifuges... they've been grinding away at this for ten years now, and yet, well, they still don't have one. I guess.

Look, you and I both understand the basic mechanics of an internal combustion engine—how it actually functions under the hood. But go ahead, try building one from scratch. Just imagine someone suddenly drops you right into the middle of the 1700s without a single tool or a scrap of modern tech. Good luck with that, I guess.
Look, if you actually had access to a local junkyard, I guess you could probably scrape together something that runs in no time at all. Maybe.

Gregory Ramos3 said:But man, that's dead wrong, and if that scenario actually played out, it would pretty much lead straight to Armageddon.

Like, what would even stop North Korea from dropping one of those on their southern brothers in that situation?
Or China launching a couple over toward Taiwan or Japan?

There is seriously zero point zero zero zero one percent chance that people wouldn't react, and the Russians know that better than anyone..

What would stop them?

The simple fact is, those countries would just rush to get their own nuclear arsenal immediately.

It’s an open secret that Japan has its own "readiness" program ready to go.

And I find it hard to believe South Korea doesn't have something similar up their sleeve.
South Korea's GDP is roughly on par with Russia's.
Japan's is nearly three times larger.

There are even circles claiming Taiwan might already have a few pieces tucked away...

There isn't even a 0.0001% chance that nobody would react, and Russ knows that all too well..

I guess Ukrainians would be pretty naive—maybe even foolish—if they weren't preparing to scramble and put together a few units themselves under these conditions.

gentlerider7 said:Ever since this latest Ukrainian counteroffensive kicked off, it feels like every second comment I see is just someone obsessing over tactical nukes.

I mean, as unlikely as it seems right now, we can't just say that option is totally off the table.

The Russian elite seem pretty rattled, and those groups of unhinged warmongers over there are pushing that idea as a last resort with terrifying ease, I guess.

Kate Cook27 said:They won't even bother—they'll just annex them. Honestly, why waste the paper? It's all Russian territory anyway😁.

So, what you're saying is we'll eventually see Putko and the Russians take over Slob and his crew from AO Kraina—assuming there's even a government left to take over after they flee into exile...?

🤔

gentlestag15 said:The hits on local traitors just keep coming
Over in Memphis, the resistance took out another collaborator—Denis Stefankov, the guy acting as "Chief of the State Police"
View on twitter

So, when are those public referendums to rejoin mother Russia finally going to happen?
Kherson, Memphis... I mean, what are we actually waiting for?

🕺
😬

James Chavez91 said:Russians are setting up recruitment centers all over Russia. They’re offering short-term contracts—3 or 6 months—with monthly pay around $3,000. It’s all just to fuel the destruction of Ukrainian soil.

under motto "choosing the right man"

Link

Honest Russian Military Recruitment video YouTube

Looks like Ukrainians are trolling this Russian recruitment video.

swiftjackal11 said:Just thinking about what happens if the Ukrainians then fire those borrowed nukes at Russia.🤷

Lent????
Where on earth would they get "lent" weapons from?
Ukraine used to be a nuclear power; they actually manufactured nuclear warheads back in the day.
It’s not like they wouldn't know how to put one together if they really had to.
They have nuclear power plants, access to plutonium, and all that stuff.
I guess they're probably preparing for that possibility; I don't think they're quite that naive.

Right now, they aren't assembling warheads because, well, it isn't exactly the right move at this moment.

But if Russia makes a serious threat—or worse, actually drops a tactical one—Ukraine would likely get the green light immediately to build their own warheads. They'd have the political cover to demand nuclear successor status following the collapse of the USSR, citing the violations of the Budapest Memorandum.
Then let's see if Putin keeps making those threats.

Kate Cook27 said:Lukashenko is pretty insignificant—just constant complaining about how Poland is getting ready to invade Ukraine and grab territory, then whining to the EU about sanctions, then suggesting Ukraine should just surrender... and then suddenly claiming he has zero issues with Ukraine and hopes relations improve soon. It's a bit much.
A lot of Belarusians aren't on his side—if he actually sent troops into Ukraine, I suspect many would just surrender on the spot, and some might even join the Ukrainians. He’s been playing both sides for years—trying to balance things with Russia and the EU—but once the Russians stepped in to prevent him from falling, he basically had to start paying back his debt to Vladimir Putin.

👍
Back when the Russian invasion kicked off in February, the whole idea was to have the Belarusian military join the assault on the Kyiv Front, but their Chief of Staff basically said no.
I guess the people in Belarus eventually realized how incredibly lucky they were, seeing how those Russian units were retreating—absolutely decimated, freezing, and basically running for the hills.
That was nearly six months ago now.

Just a week ago, they watched as the Ukrainian army, bolstered by Western weaponry, pulled off a Blitz along the Russian border, leaving the Russian forces scrambling to save whatever they could.
After everything that’s happened, even the most die-hard pro-Russian folks in Belarus don't seem to have any desire at all to get tangled up with Ukraine.

George Mendoza3 said:I’m really enjoying this whole debate regarding the use of nuclear weapons...
It seems like everyone keeps bringing up how things are going downhill for the Russians...
But I think some people here are forgetting the fundamental reality that dropping a bomb on Ukraine is effectively the same thing as dropping one on Russia itself...

And why is everyone so obsessed with Crimea, acting like it’s this untouchable red line that just can't be crossed...
What happens if the Ukrainians decide they're just as fixated on Belgorod, wanting to pay a little visit to Mother Russia and finally march their boots right across that border...

If Russia decides to deploy some kind of tactical nuclear weapon against Ukraine just to blackmail them into an armistice, here’s what I imagine would happen:

1. Russia would instantly become a total global pariah.
Even the countries that have been quietly supporting them or staying silent would probably feel forced to distance themselves publicly.

2. We might see some sort of quiet ceasefire in Ukraine, but NATO and other Western powers would likely be moving straight into a mobilization phase.

3. Give it a month, and Ukraine would probably announce they have their own nuclear warheads and missile systems ready for delivery to Moscow.

Nancy Gomez26 said:If Vladimir Putin decides to deploy nuclear weapons in this conflict, he’ll be painting a massive target on his own back first and foremost. He understands that reality perfectly well. All this "passing mention" regarding a "final solution" is nothing more than theater designed for a domestic audience. Trying to intimidate the world with such threats is a hollow exercise—it makes no sense to attempt to scare people who are already dying daily to defend their homeland, or to rattle an alliance shielded by the full weight of NATO.

Back during the old USSR days, there were a few instances where officers actually refused to follow launch protocols, even when it looked like a full-scale nuclear strike against the USSR was imminent.
Caution won out, I guess.

I suspect there's a pretty high chance that even today, officers within the nuclear command might refuse to pull the trigger based on some impulsive whim from Vladimir Putin.
Using nukes unilaterally against Ukraine isn't exactly the same thing as defending Russia from a direct strike by another nuclear power.

Kate Cook27 said:The Chinese win either way. Honestly, I think they're positioned to come out ahead most cleanly—and if we're looking at who actually benefits from starting a war, maybe China was the one nudging Russia toward this whole mess😁?

Actually, China is taking a massive hit because of this war.

1. China relies heavily on imported energy.
The spike in energy prices has really taken a toll on the Chinese economy.
Which basically means—higher production costs.-

2. Their biggest customers are the wealthy nations in the West. As those countries deal with their own economic downturns, they’re going to buy less from China. And usually, it's the kind of stuff China can't easily sell anywhere else.
So—less revenue.-
On top of that, Western countries realized during the pandemic that relying solely on China was a mistake, so they're diversifying suppliers and trying to bring strategic manufacturing back to the West.

3. China imports a huge amount of food.
Because of this war, processed food prices are skyrocketing, which is going to be a real problem for a major net importer like China.

Maybe China can play the waiting game for a little while longer, but I guess if this war drags on, they might end up being big losers too.

rowdytiger13 said:There really isn't much of a choice left.
The grand vision—at least according to the Kremlin before all this started—was for Russia to lead this segment of a multipolar world, or if they were feeling optimistic, to lead it as an equal partner alongside China. There were certainly people who viewed China as nothing more than a paper tiger that could never truly compete with a powerhouse like Russia.
That entire dynamic has shifted completely. In this part of the world, China is clearly taking the lead. Russia has exposed its military vulnerabilities, and with its economy being further crippled, it won't have the leverage to push back against a China that successfully avoided the trap of jumping into an adventure over Taiwan.

I suppose leadership in China should probably be asking themselves how much their economy could actually take if they decided to pick a fight with the rest of the world.
They really ought to realize, just like Russia is finding out, that they’re acting like the neighborhood bully who terrorizes the block. Everyone might tolerate him or act like they respect him for now, but if things truly go sideways, everyone tends to turn on him... especially if someone from the next neighborhood over shows up to knock that local tough guy down a peg.

The whole dynamic has shifted entirely. In that part of the world, China is going to be the one calling the shots. Russia has exposed its military weaknesses, and with an economy that's only getting more crippled, they won't be in any position to push back against China, which managed to avoid the trap by not rushing into an adventure in Taiwan.

If China decides to move on Taiwan, they could find themselves in a much worse spot than Russia is right now.
Sanctions would hit them five times harder; we could be looking at domestic famine or civil unrest within three or four months.
And you could see the countries surrounding China forming a massive military alliance, something akin to NATO (including Japan, North Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Indonesia, Australia, and the USA)...

With Russia left defeated and weakened, Central Asia is basically sitting there wide open for China. It might be better for them to take that opening while they can...

Carol Johnson21 said:I suspect that wasn't even their main motivation. Adding ten thousand motivated criminals to the mix is the ultimate force multiplier. We're looking at a wave of classic street crimes that will terrorize the local population. Where else could the Russians find such a motivated force? They're essentially offering these guys an escape route; if they called for a general mobilization, they'd just face a mass exodus.

These criminals represent the absolute peak of current Russian capabilities.

They promise plenty of ammo—supposedly better than what was provided in Afghanistan or Chechnya. Meanwhile, on Taiwan, there's a video circulating of a Russian soldier talking to his wife. He tells her he's wounded but isn't allowed to leave his post because there are no hospital beds available. Her response? She tells him they've been abandoned just like they were in Afghanistan and Chechnya.

Speaking of videos of Russian soldiers, there's one where a low-ranking guy explains to his superior how unfair it is that the officers got to bring three seized cars back to Russia, while they're stuck driving some old Hyundai 😁
. It’s also quite telling how he complains about not having had a single day off in seven months because there is absolutely no rotation of troops.

People like that aren't exactly professional soldiers.
Most criminals are just opportunists, I think—people who found it easier to steal than to actually work a real job. They aren't exactly rushing to go die for a cause. There aren't even that many actual killers in the prison system.

Most of those willing to sign up are probably just thugs, rioters, petty street thieves...
Maybe they'd have been useful if the primary role of the Russian military and Wagner was just to act as an occupation force, sort of like back in Afghanistan...

They're promising them plenty of ammo, supposedly better than what happened in Afghanistan or Chechnya, but there's this conversation circulating on TW about a Russian soldier talking to his wife. He tells her he's wounded but isn't allowed to leave his post because there are no hospital beds available, and she just tells him they've abandoned them again, just like in Afghanistan or Chechnya.

When exactly did the mujahideen hold firm lines in the valleys against Soviet units during the war in Afghanistan? When did they ever launch an offensive quite like this current Ukrainian one?
Never, I guess.
In this conflict alone, the Russian side has lost five times as many soldiers in six months as they did during the entire eight years of the war in Afghanistan.

People are seriously dying in this war, and I assume these convicts realize they're just being used as cannon fodder...?

What are the odds that if they sign a contract today, they'll still be alive a year from now, let alone with both hands and feet intact?
Is it even a fifty-fifty shot at this point?

Gregory Ramos3 said:Looks like the Russians are scouting for some new allies ☕

Russian state TV's Vladimir Solovyov says his country should form an International coalition for its War in Ukraine including Venezuela

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/st...50377878585346

God, Solovyov is such an idiot...
I mean, the sheer amount of nonsense and pure stupidity that comes out of his mouth. It's almost impressive, I guess.

Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba—I mean, what kid would actually want to get dragged into this Russian war?
Even they probably see that Russia has become a massive loser, and providing any kind of support for Russia's aggressive war could just bring a mountain of trouble their way—trouble they already have plenty of. And honestly, they don't even have much that Russia actually needs.

Then you've got Iran and Korea, who have enough of their own messes to deal with without meddling in a war that Russia is losing. There's a big difference between selling stuff to Russia to make a buck and actually getting involved in a fight.

Joshua Myers432 said:Sure, but they could land in Ukraine where American mechanics could service them. The bigger headache would be training pilots on short notice—it’s not exactly like driving a Chevy.

I feel like people in the West tend to exaggerate how much training is actually needed to manage and service high-tech military gear.

It seems everyone forgets that Ukraine used to have a massive aerospace sector—a whole military-industrial complex involving hundreds of thousands of workers.

There's also this tendency to overlook the fact that the folks going through this (re)training aren't typically just some random conscripts or low-level enlisted guys with sub-par IQs coming straight out of basic training.

The Ukrainians are incredibly driven to defend their home. Usually, the ones signing up for this kind of specialized training are people who already have experience with this specific tech, and frankly, they're often more highly educated than a standard professional officer in the US military...

Combat jets aren't so fundamentally different that a seasoned pro couldn't learn to service a different model after a few months of intensive work. And if you really need top-tier specialists? Well, maybe you just hire a contractor...

Pilots are a bit more complicated—if you're looking for those elite aviators who can squeeze every ounce of performance out of a jet... but even then, it isn't some endless retraining process that lasts forever.