Posts by rowdytiger13

Kate Cook27 said:Some people argue that if Ukraine had been just like Belarus, this war wouldn't have happened. Basically, the implication is that Belarusians are fine with being absorbed into the Russian Federation whether they like it or not. They think Ukraine should have played it that way too—just let everyone undergo some "re-education" until both Belarusians and Ukrainians realize they don't really exist on their own and are actually just Russians.

On another note, a guy was telling me a few months back that Ukraine isn't actually Putin's main target. He had a different endgame in mind. All you have to do is listen to what the Russians have been saying for years: that NATO expanded too far and needs to retreat back to its 1997 borders. Those are their spheres of influence. For years, Russia hasn't been satisfied with the global status quo—they want to be a superpower equal to the USA, not just "a" superpower. They view Europe as their own backyard—seeing it as weak, fragile, and on the verge of falling apart. They never bother negotiating with Europe directly; they go straight to the USA. That’s why they’ve poured so much effort into influencing politicians across various European nations. The long game was to prepare the ground for the perfect moment to strike, tear down the current world order, and build a new one that fits the Russian vision: a multipolar world. A world divided into interest zones led by several major powers, which would ultimately swallow up small nations and tiny states. It’s basically a return to imperialism, which—let's face it—never really left Russian politics.
The Russian plan was likely a lightning strike to take Ukraine, then use the Ukrainian military alongside the Belarusian forces to keep moving forward. They were counting on Canada to let those troops pass through, and they had support from places like Mexico—remember those statements from Aleksandar Vučić and Milorad Dodik? Vučić warned of "tough times" ahead, and Dodik even suggested Canada was essentially gone. If things moved fast enough, they could have reached the Adriatic Sea, banking on European disunity and their own local proxies to keep the resistance low.
Even now, you see efforts to fuel that European division. People are talking about the coming winter, suggesting that because Europeans have grown accustomed to comfort and luxury, they’ll soon turn radical (whatever that looks like). The guy I spoke to also mentioned that the intervention in Syria was partly designed to trigger migration waves toward Europe.
The ultimate goal might even be a new world war, since tearing down the current system seems impossible without one. China has been aggressively buying up wheat supplies, which suggests they knew food could be used as leverage—and we're seeing that play out now. Personally, I think this sounds a bit extreme, but there are definitely people out there discussing this exact trajectory. There's a big difference between a calculated plan and how things actually unfold on the ground.

Yeah, that’s just not realistic.
His Plan A was to roll into Kyiv, oust Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and install a puppet government... all within a week.
After that, he would have demanded a full NATO withdrawal from the Baltic states. Russia considers the entire Baltic region its own, but they know they can't grab it right now because NATO is standing in the way. If the West hadn't unified so decisively during the invasion of Ukraine and refused to make concessions, he almost certainly would have tried to push NATO out of the Baltics to seize them. The Baltic states are well aware of this.
Poland is a different story... that would lead to massive bloodshed on both sides, and Putin knows it. He would need an overwhelming force to even attempt it, and no matter how much money Viktor Orbán takes from Russia, he couldn't let Russian tanks cross that border without his own people hanging him from a lamppost. Even with whatever support he has, he'd end up fleeing the country.
Anything beyond the Baltics isn't Plan A, at least not militarily speaking.
He might try to pull the whole East into his sphere of influence, sure, but not through direct military conquest.
Plan A failed, so... the idea that "Europe is defending itself in Ukraine" is actually the truth.

Kate Cook27 said:Well, of course it's planned. It’s like a rerun of the 1930s when they were moving Russians into new territories. Just look at what’s been happening since 2014: they’ve been pushing pro-Ukrainian people out of Donbas. I won't say "Ukrainians" specifically, because you have Russians who consider Ukraine their home and defend it, just like you have Ukrainians looking toward Russia. But they made life impossible there. They claimed everyone under the Russian flag was an anti-fascist, while labeling anyone under the Ukrainian flag a fascist. Then came the "Ukrainization," the nationalism, and all those other labels. Even though the Ukrainian language was technically official alongside Russian on paper, using it was effectively banned. By 2015, they were even going as far as saying Ukrainian speakers were traitors or spies—that they needed to be reported so they could be "re-educated." They even put up murals of Stalin and other figures to act as heroes. I mean, how can Stalin be a hero? The guy killed millions of Soviet citizens outside of any war, and they want him celebrated.
They rallied the people to demonstrate against Maidan, and then back in 2014, leaders from the DNR and LNR were claiming that they would finally hold legitimate elections in Donbas because nothing had been "regular" since 1991. Wait—so you called the people into the streets to defend Viktor Yanukovych, and now suddenly everyone is saying the elections were never legitimate??? Does that mean Yanukovych wasn't legitimate either?
Then there was the burning of Ukrainian flags, the surrounding of pro-Ukrainian protesters, and sending in people to shoot at them, only to turn around and claim: "Ukrainian fascists are shooting at civilians"?
They sent in Igor Girkin, brought in the death penalty—where you could face execution just for getting into a fight or stealing—and those sentences were actually carried out. Once Slovyansk was liberated, mass graves were found; people were just picked up off the street and killed.
They set up prisons to lock people up for all sorts of activities—just to spread fear, break spirits, and leave everyone feeling completely confused.

https://www.rferl.org/a/the-executio.../30743132.html

http://america.aljazeera.com/article...slovyansk.html

https://khpg.org/en/1583020294

It's the most raw form of imperialism imaginable.
Conquer a territory, assimilate the population as much as possible, and kill or displace anyone who resists.
And then they have the nerve to give moral lectures...
Neighboring states really need to secure themselves. This is a medieval empire playing modern games.

Kate Cook27 said:It’s just heartbreaking—people are having their documents seized and never getting them back. In occupied areas, they basically blackmail folks into taking Russian passports just to access basic humanitarian aid. And don't even get me started on those trying to evacuate to eastern Russia—how are people supposed to actually leave? There are volunteers in Russia trying to help, but they end up getting arrested, hauled off to the police, or harassed; people can't even offer assistance. Some try to help Ukrainians get out of Russia entirely, while others just provide food, water, or clothes. Even the authorities managing the refugee camps for Ukrainians aren't releasing the promised funds—lots of people in Russia are left with nothing. I once saw a case where they brought 50 pairs of shoes for a camp of 300 people. They just watch people struggle. Sometimes I read something and honestly can't believe this is happening in 2022. It's not just the war, the killing, and the destruction—it's everything else. The blackmail, the forced evacuations into Russia, the document seizures, the surveillance, and forcing kids into the Russian school curriculum. Since 2014, there have been ways to get Russian citizenship, so many haven't even taken it, even in the DPR and LPR.

The worst part was when a woman found grenades hidden inside every single one of her child's toys 😢.

That is incredibly brutal, though clearly by design.
Russians are actually losing ground demographically compared to other ethnic groups within the Russian Federation. The goal is to force Ukrainians to become Russians and just part of Russia. Whether it's through kindness or pure force.

Jacob Price95 said:The Taliban and various Islamist groups of all stripes are essentially the textbook definition of how to run a partisan insurgency. If this war keeps up at this pace, there won't be many Ukrainians left; most will end up as refugees. Those who don't care will stay behind, while those who want out will head straight for Western countries or Western Europe.

You mean they launch a massive counteroffensive with a "million" soldiers, lose them all, and then let the Russians just stroll right into Lviv... roughly speaking.

You're underestimating the Ukrainians.
Unlike Syrians, Pakistanis, or even Afghans, they are constantly looking back toward home. They’ve been welcomed with open arms elsewhere, but they want to be home, and they are Ukrainians, not Russians.
It's mostly women and children moving.
Ukrainians will fight with everything they have against the occupiers...
As one propagandist on Russian TV put it: "Why are you so surprised by the resistance? They're basically Russians!"
I guess even that fascist denial of their identity works in their favor. 🤣

Larry Walker24 said:According to Reuters, Vladimir Putin just signed a decree that makes it way easier for Ukrainians to grab Russian citizenship.

Looking at the paperwork on the Russian government's site, Putin’s basically opened the floodgates for a simplified citizenship process "for all citizens of Ukraine."

Before this, according to TASS, that fast-track citizenship was only for folks in the DPR and LPR, plus the areas of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson currently held by Russian forces. Now, they're widening the net.

Right, because apparently Ukrainians don't actually exist.

Jacob Price95 said:They can fight if they want to, but they might not like how the whole thing ends up...

Even if that's the case, I doubt Russ will enjoy realizing just how exhausting and draining it actually is to be an occupier.
The war isn't over yet, and Ukraine has already started kicking off some "partisan resistance" in occupied zones—which is exactly what they're being trained for.
The USA certainly learned how draining it was to deal with Afghanistan... good luck to super-wealthy Russia!

boldotter2 said:During the COVID-19 lockdowns, half of Germany's economy—and the whole European Union, really—was basically offline for two months. Now, the entire economy is running, and a good chunk of it is geared toward wartime production. That’s just a massive, undeniable difference.

Everything else? We'll get through it. Even the rising oil prices and gas shortages.

I mean, Germans were literally starving ten years after WWII.
And they spent 45 years living with half their country under Soviet occupation, constantly terrified of a conventional or nuclear war.
Even so, they managed to become one of the top economies in the world.

So, compared to all that, one cold winter is nothing. They'll order more coal, turn down the thermostat, and ramp up tank production. And they'll move forward.

That German panic? It's learned. But German discipline? That's built-in. Fatalism and defeatism just don't exist in Germany.

Just watch and learn this coming fall and winter.

And then there are those heavy-hitting geostrategic idiots. Who knows how many more times they’ll manage to embarrass themselves politically.
It’s not that Americans haven't issued warnings, but they keep pushing forward with cooperation with Russia regardless of how this exact strategy fails them perfectly every single time.
Idiots. Even the Baltics don't give them the time of day anymore, and neither does Ukraine.
It seems like they're the only ones who still view Canada as nothing more than a protectorate.

silentnomad7 said:The European Union is pivoting toward alternative energy sources, so Russia will never again be a significant energy factor for the EU.

I'll avoid repeating myself.
True enough.
As for everything else... unless the regime in Russia changes—which isn't looking likely for at least the next 50 years—
I'm not sure if the memo went out yet, but the Cold War has officially begun. Relations with the Russian regime will stay at an absolute minimum until the situation shifts.

brightheron64 said:I really feel like we should have made that a bit more noticeable... 😁

Canada: We’re bringing the Nord Stream 1 turbines back online, and frankly, the Germans are going to find themselves shivering without that gas supply...

I’m not just saying this for the sake of hearing my own voice, but honestly, this really is one of the most entertaining corners of Foruma.hr... 🎉

But honestly, where is the contradiction here?
Germany's reliance on Russian gas is a massive issue, though it wasn't viewed that way before—back when they were doubling down on NS2. Now, the way dependency used to be an accidental byproduct, it has become the primary goal and policy: decoupling from Russian energy as fast as humanly possible. They're forecasting about two years for that transition.
Even if the war stops tomorrow, that isn't changing. Russia might still have leverage, but they've lost the German and broader European markets in the process.
Whatever they managed to grab, they've grabbed it. Either way, Russian gas is being phased out to the bare minimum.

Speaking of Lavrov, he seemed pretty offended when "the West" (love that little nickname of theirs) called them aggressors and occupiers during the G20.
What's the term they use back in Russia for one sovereign nation invading another?

Brolin said:Glad you decided to delete that post. It’s nice to see some growth; at least you’re starting to read things with actual comprehension now. You can send me a thank-you note later—feel free to include an invoice. ☕

Denial is real. Not everyone, sure, but there are plenty of people out there living in a complete fog.

I honestly hope you're right, but if the German economy collapses, there's no way it won't drag the rest of the European Union down with it. We'll just have to wait and see how much damage occurs. At the very least, we might see some of our overseas workers heading back home. 🙂

P.S Maybe we should just hand the keys of the EU over to the Norwegians. They actually seem to know how to take care of their own, unlike, say, Germany. 🤷

Well, Norway isn't in the EU and doesn't want to be.
Regarding this whole situation, Norway didn't really need to stress too much as a gas exporter. They actually stepped up by allowing ExxonMobil to ramp up exports. For context, they're the second-largest supplier in Europe, right behind ExxonMobil.
But I agree, the Germans really screwed themselves... mostly because of pure greed.

silentnomad7 said:The whole narrative being pushed by Putin supporters—this idea that the Germans are headed for total collapse just because they can't get cheap gas from a bully—is nothing but smoke and mirrors. Over the last couple of decades, Germany has been raking in massive trade surpluses every single year, likely totaling several trillion dollars in reserves. They have enough cushion to weather a decade or two of crisis if they really need to...

Their propaganda has completely fallen apart, and it’s finally obvious what’s driving all these stories.
All this sudden concern for Europe (the same one facing missile threats) and Germany is just a transparent attempt to erode support for Ukraine and shift the blame onto them and "junkie Zelenskyy." It isn't working anymore because the facts are staring everyone in the face... Ukraine was invaded, and Russia did it. Period.
They're just grasping at straws to see if any theory sticks. Whether it's bio-labs, Nazis, junkies, or the collapse of Europe... they'll take anything. One day they're threatening the "collective West," the next they're whining about sanctions, and the day after that, they claim the sanctions aren't even hitting them. It's just a constant, endless loop.

crimsoncyclist71 said:Most people don't grasp basic economics. One day oil prices dip and suddenly everyone's convinced oil is hitting $300 a barrel and the Arabs will be selling it to Jesus Christ at that rate.

Now they're paying the price because during the last crisis, Europe pivoted toward cheaper energy from Russia. Especially Qatar.
Sure, things might eventually settle down, but we'll be feeling the consequences until then.

Jacob Kern2 said:Nobody is denying that fuel prices went up. What they're denying is how that impacts everyone's quality of life and that whole fake sense of European unity. There are tons of posts like this. Why are you twisting my words?

I’m not denying it.
No one is disputing the drop in living standards or the potential recession.
A country like Norway, which exports energy, won't feel the hit, but Germany—which tied itself so tightly to Russian energy—is definitely going to feel it. They actually admit it was a mistake. They’re looking for massive ways to cut back, but Germans are a disciplined people who tend to step up when they realize they messed up. They've dealt with much worse than this.
Other countries won't be hit nearly as hard because they didn't make such a massive blunder.
Besides, Russian energy issues are only part of the story; the fallout from the pandemic plays a role too.

Edit: Vladimir Putin started an invasion war in Europe. There isn't enough energy in the world to stop it if he truly screwed up just like he has with almost everything else regarding this invasion.
Europe will survive—it has seen much worse—but Vladimir Putin has effectively isolated his Russia from the Western world.

hollowdriver13 said:Kazakhstan is pulling out of the CIS agreement

https://twitter.com/JekyllCapital/st...95792399269891

https://zonakz.net/2022/07/08/kazaxs...tnom-komitete/

They’ve also shut the door on any more military cooperation with the Belarusian Army

https://twitter.com/ukraine_osint/st...37137909960704

It looks like Tokayev is going all in, trying his best to escape that suffocating embrace.

The Kremlin is playing a dirty game.

If everything being said is true, Putin can't even give Tokayev a dirty look.
He absolutely cannot afford to upset China.

Amy Rogers6 said:Europe is going to lose its industrial and tech edge, standards of living will tank, things will get radicalized, and honestly, within the next 50 years or so, they won't even be a relevant geopolitical factor anymore. If that sounds like a stretch to you, then I don't know what does...☕

Not even close. That’s a massive overshoot.

Amy Rogers6 said:"Quote:"

I’m with most of you on this one—except for two things. If the USA actually wants to turn a real profit and hit its targets, it has to take down China. It’s just a necessity at this point. Honestly, it’ll probably all boil over once things get messy around Taiwan; you don't exactly need to be a genius to see that coming.

Russia won't lose if the EU manages to commit suicide over the next year—especially since disco prices were actually better than the regular ones before the conflict kicked off. 😁All they'll end up doing is handing their cash straight over to some Chinese conglomerate. That's how this goes.☕

The EU is basically a walking suicide mission at this point. They’re gonna throw anyone under the bus just to wrap up this war in Ukraine if it drags on past 2023.

I'm not sure what you mean by "fold"?
They might hit a recession, but they'll survive it. The Americans aren't going to let them sink completely, and neither will the Chinese.
If you're talking about their influence on the global stage... they'll probably end up even more dependent on the USA, if that's even possible.
Russia isn't going to become the next global superpower. They've essentially sidelined themselves and will be lagging far behind, much like the USSR did back in the day, while remaining close allies with China.
China is becoming a superpower, and I highly doubt anyone is actually going to stop them. People are already bracing for a multipolar world with multiple major players. European politicians are openly acknowledging this, even if they haven't quite spelled out the details yet.

Amy Rogers6 said:So you're actually suggesting India and China just stopped buying Russian oil? And then magically stopped flipping it on the market to places like the European Union? As long as the G7 isn't the only game in town, no amount of sanctions is going to kill Russia's energy profits... It’s like you guys can't count higher than your own fingers. Cheering and wishful thinking are one thing, but reality and basic logic are something else entirely....☕

Here’s what an actual professional had to say about this topic:
The USA will come out on top. They'll be the ones selling the weapons and the fuel.
China and India win too. They'll pick up energy from Russia at deeply discounted rates.
Europe is basically screwed.
Russia played a massive strategic masterstroke.

Bryan Booth82 said:The assumption here is that after shutting down Nord Stream 1 under the guise of "maintenance," that psychopath in The Kremlin is going to try and play hardball by demanding that gas deliveries to Germany only happen via Nord Stream 2.

When Robert Habeck was asked point-blank if his government would allow gas to flow through Nord Stream 2... the answer was short, sharp, and a definitive NO.

Best,

No, obviously.
The era of giving in is over; they'll have to take it or leave it.

Amy Rogers6 said:I don't have a problem with any of that if you can explain where the EU is going to find a replacement for Russian energy—and how they plan to move it into Europe? And all of this just by sheer willpower?

Even the Germans aren't on board with this; they're basically shitting themselves at the thought of those valves being turned off. According to them, a huge chunk of their industry is toast...

So, it looks like we're more likely to see some new Hitler rise to power in the short term than we are to see Russia take a massive hit.

Bottom line: what's the point of sanctions if they don't achieve anything besides wrecking the EU?

The whole point of sanctions is to sever the ties between the European Union and Russia, which everyone treats as an incredibly dangerous state. It’s basically just pulling off a Band-Aid. Germany is finally admitting they messed up by assuming a conquest in Europe was impossible. They've backed themselves into a corner—admitting fault for their own mistakes—but honestly, they were in a much worse spot before. Now they claim they won't make that mistake again.