Posts by rowdytiger13

The European Commission is set to decide today whether to grant Ukraine candidate status for membership in the EU.
It’s a massive leap from being a candidate to actually joining the club, but this would still be incredibly fast—especially since it would be the first time a country under active war gets candidate status.

electrichawk94 said:China won't actually become the world's top superpower until every major tech giant is based there and both their citizens and global markets have the kind of spending power we see here in the States. Basically, it’s a non-starter.

If China gets into any kind of real conflict with the West, their growth hits a brick wall immediately.

They aren't looking for a fight with the West anyway. They aren't Peter the Great; they’ll do just about anything to avoid one. Even he wouldn't be too happy if things dragged on much longer.

Amanda Allen4 said:There will come a day when China reclaims the territory that Imperial Russia snatched from them. And mark my words, it won't be a full-scale war—it’ll be some "special operation" just like what we're seeing in Ukraine right now.

Karma's a bitch, as the Americans like to say.

Noah Ward2 said:With this, Europe is essentially checkmated, and Russia is being pushed right into the arms of the Chinese... I don't think it gets any worse than that.

When you zoom out and look at the big picture, things look pretty grim... and I'll say it again, China is quietly moving as one of the biggest threats out there, often flying right under everyone's radar.

Just imagine a globe where China is the dominant force. I really hope I've checked out of this planet by the time that happens.

In no version of that scenario am I living on that part of the globe.
😁

Noah Ward2 said:China is definitely the biggest challenge we face... what's happening in Ukraine is almost trivial compared to the kind of chaos that might come from dealing with them...

Instead of the West trying to strike a deal with Putin over the last 20 years to keep a lid on the Chinese before they became too powerful, they've just let them expand. Meanwhile, they're busy fighting a Cold War with Russia, which isn't even the main player in the global picture anymore...

Now that Putin has finally lost his patience, everyone is panicking... unfortunately, it looks like the big winners in all of this will be the Chinese...

I already told you that this effectively knocks both Russia and the European Union out of the race.
The world is headed toward—or rather, is already stuck with—two superpowers: the USA and China.
Europe is just resetting to its factory settings. Let's be real, they've always lived under Big Brother's umbrella. As for Russia? They're moving under China's wing, regardless of whether people call it a partnership or a friendship (which is basically what the relationship between the USA and the EU is anyway).

Noah Ward2 said:I also feel like this was a poor decision on Putin's part...

Even if he manages to walk away with a nominal victory, the cost is going to be incredibly high, and it might take a long time before things ever return to normal...

One thing that could push this all into the background is a conflict between Americans and the Chinese, which wouldn't be ruled out at all. That would likely be the biggest conflict of this century; it's just a matter of when it finally explodes.

I still tend to think that the Germans and the French seem to be the most reasonable ones here, but they don't have much of a say, I suppose. The English and the Americans are the ones running the show, and they’ll be the ones deciding when to tell Kyiv that enough is enough...

Germany has completely lost the plot; they're politically tone-deaf. I actually think they're a great people, but there's just no helping them. Then you've got the French.
The Chinese aren't like the Russians. After Putin's latest mess, they backed off. Their response was sharp and unified, and they won't touch Taiwan until they've waited for the right moment. That isn't an issue for them.
The real problem with China is how difficult they are to bait into a mistake.
Personally, I think the world is fracturing, and that divide is already happening. China is clearly the number two superpower now.
Putin has effectively knocked both Russia and the EU out of the race.

electrichawk94 said:Putin would basically be the greatest leader in Russian history if he actually pulled off getting his country into the European Union. 😁

Kick the British and the US out, and let Russia in. 😁

At that point, NATO becomes pretty much pointless. 😁

That’s the only reason to bother playing this supposed "4D chess" game—because it's supposedly so incredibly difficult. If you can actually outmaneuver the USA and the UK, which are arguably the smartest political opponents on the field, then sure, you've earned the top spot.
It's way easier to just build a closed-off autocracy and flex your muscles.

DzonziBG said:Not everyone, but plenty have perished... and there's no point hiding that now...

All those people dying for nothing, without any real shot at turning the tide. It’s just such a waste of young lives...

The end result of all this? Nothing. Just a river of blood, followed by some crooks sitting down to sign a piece of paper...

Hoping for some massive shift that thwarts Russ is a pretty thin hope...

This whole war is just a moronic, criminal move by both sides. That’s why nobody actually believed it would happen (except the CIA). People felt they had a point when Obama suggested Putin was cracking under pressure. Well, he popped like popcorn, but that isn't an excuse—hardly any world leader doesn't deal with pressure.
It's a massive failure on the part of his intelligence agencies; a catastrophic decision driven by head-nodding and Putin feeling backed into a corner.

Edit: There's no turning back now, and Macron is right to see the danger. He's basically the only one talking to Putin, constantly insisting we need to give him a "dignified exit" so he can claim victory. It's going to be incredibly difficult.
Honestly, I'd rather he didn't talk to him at all, especially after he directly supported my opponent and spent the beginning mocking us (the entire EU, including Macron himself).

urbanotter said:I’ve been hearing some chatter lately regarding the head of the Russian central bank, Elvira Nabiullina, and there are rumors floating around that Putin is paying her an absolutely astronomical salary—something in the neighborhood of 700,000 euros. It makes you wonder about the sheer scale of those kinds of figures when you think about the disconnect between official reports and what actually happens behind closed doors in the Kremlin.
It’s honestly almost impressive how she carries herself like some kind of financial mastermind, coming up with these elaborate schemes to pay in rubles and other various Russian financial scams. It really is quite something to watch her try to play games with PhD holders and top-tier global financial experts who actually know what they're doing.

I was reading up on Elvira Nabiullina today, and it really got me thinking about the immense weight placed on the shoulders of a central bank leader during times of such extreme global instability. It’s one thing to manage interest rates and inflation during steady economic growth, but it’s an entirely different beast when you’re tasked with navigating the fallout from massive geopolitical shifts and intense international sanctions. She has certainly become a central figure in how the economy responds to the ongoing tensions involving Russia and the West. You look at her career trajectory and see someone who has had to make incredibly difficult, high-stakes decisions that impact everything from daily consumer prices to the long-term stability of the national currency. It reminds me of those periods in American history where the Federal Reserve has had to step in to prevent total market panic—there's a certain lonely gravity to that kind of responsibility. I often wonder if leaders in her position ever get a moment to just breathe, or if they are constantly playing a high-speed game of chess against shifting global forces.

There’s this persistent idea floating around the Russian media that the head of their central bank uses the pins on her lapel at public events to drop subtle hints about the state of the economy or the regulators' next moves. It's almost like a secret language for those paying close attention. Back in 2020, I remember reading how Elvira Nabiullina would show up to press conferences wearing pins featuring blue waves, dots, or even little glasses—all seemingly coded messages. Then, in March 2021, right when they announced the first interest rate hike in three years, she made an appearance sporting a hawk pin. It makes you wonder how much of it is intentional signaling and how much is just fashion, but in a landscape driven by Kremlin propaganda, people are always looking for those hidden patterns.

Honestly, she’s acting exactly like Jaca. 🙏🙏

p.s.
Honestly, no matter where you try to run or how hard you attempt to dodge the consequences, there is just no escaping these sanctions. It feels inevitable, like being stuck face-down in the mud right along the waterfront promenade in a city like San Francisco. There's simply no way to avoid the mess this is going to create.

That same Janet Yellen actually tried to resign right after Putin got hit with these sanctions, but he refused to let her go. He literally wouldn't allow her to step down in that moment and instead just extended her term.
After that, she cooked up the whole ruble payment scheme and all those little maneuvers; when she gave the announcement, she was dressed entirely in black, so even the Russian media noted she looked like she was attending a funeral.
Sure, she's a brilliant woman who knows how to manipulate exchange rates in the short term, but in the long run, it's all just smoke and mirrors.

Ethan Gomez82 said:I don't care what it means for an American (or a Ukrainian, or anyone else outside the West). I care about my gas bill. I’m sure some genius will chime in to tell me the bill hasn't actually gone up and I'm just imagining things. ☕

It went up.
Vote for a new administration. Protest. You have that right, and you won't get 15 years in prison for it.

"Quote:"

Ethan Gomez82 said:No, I see it happening right before my eyes every single day.

The nonsense has already started—all this talk about riding bicycles more or turning down the thermostat by a degree or whatever other idiocy they dream up. Not me. I’m a subversive, defiant, and disobedient citizen. I am definitely not "following the herd." 😁

This kind of nonsense has been around forever, especially when people start crying about the environment. Europeans have embraced it so hard that their prime ministers actually commute by bicycle just to get a round of applause. So, honestly, this won't be any big deal or cause any real stress.
Moving forward... for Average. A drop in standards means this Dane isn't heading to Majorca this summer.
What does a drop in living standards actually mean for the average American?
Once you actually answer that question, you might finally realize how smart you are.

hollowdriver13 said:But looking at the numbers, most people in Europe actually back these measures. Recent polls from Ipsos show support hovering somewhere between 67% and 82%, and they seem willing to deal with the economic backlash. You could even argue that Russia has managed to stir up more militant sentiment in the general European population than the politicians themselves have.
Even on a global scale, the majority of people surveyed support helping Ukraine.
"On average globally, majorities say that their country must support sovereign countries when attacked (70%) and that doing nothing in Ukraine will encourage Russia to take further military action elsewhere (68%)."

https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news/pol...ine-april-2022

The bottom line is that most people just don't support Russia's assault on the global order established after WW2. They aren't fans of trying to grab territory through brute force. Then you have the troublemakers who openly talk about annexation and act totally shocked when "everyone hates them," blaming the "evil West" for fueling Russophobia. 🤦

In reality, politicians are just following the pulse. If anything, they’d prefer citizens weren't this motivated; they were secretly hoping people would react poorly once their standard of living took a hit. Especially those folks over in Germany.

Medvedev seems to have completely lost his mind in a nervous breakdown that’s been spiraling since this whole thing kicked off. He’s the most surprising one for me, considering he used to act like such a liberal—as much as that's even possible in Russia.
Basically, his argument is that the West is entirely to blame because they just hate Russians for being Russian, citing sanctions against everyday people as proof, while conveniently forgetting that those sanctions targeted the oligarchs first.
A drop in living standards isn't going to hit a Dutchman and a Romanian the same way, given they aren't starting from the same baseline. The European Union will be handing out grants, too. The US has already seen some influx of cash... though who knows how much help we'll actually get.

"Quote:"

goldenpuma84 said:We're only just now (TWO YEARS AFTER THE MEDIA-INDUCED MADNESS STARTED) dealing with the economic fallout of the global lockdown—caused by broken supply chains and printing money to hand out to citizens that wasn't earned and didn't reflect real economic activity while the economy was actually tanking. Then they created a supply shortage against an artificially maintained level of demand, and presto—inflation.

What European politicians are doing now at the expense of their voters, just to benefit the bosses in Washington (woof-woof, Plenković), and the excitement from a large chunk of this forum, is going to come due in a few months.

It's just how it works. Feel free to mock me if you want...

Well, that’s exactly what politicians say. Maybe not in American, though.
The standard of living in Europe is headed downhill, but people have been bracing for this hit since the push for green energy started. It’s not like we haven't seen it coming.
A drop in the standard of living doesn't necessarily mean people will be starving; compared to most of the rest of the world, things will likely still look pretty damn good.

Amanda Flores88 said:Nothing's changing before the year wraps up.

2023 is basically being labeled as a transition year. In plain English? That means we’re looking at about six more months of absolutely nothing happening—then maybe things start moving.

With Viktor Orbán, it’s kind of wild—everyone's out there publicly dragging him, but behind closed doors? Most leaders are actually low-key relieved he's around. He basically plays the bad guy so they don't have to. He steps up, says the stuff nobody else dares to say, and lets them keep playing their "perfectly polite" roles. It's pretty much a classic setup, right?

Not really...
The embargo on Russian oil arriving by sea kicks in immediately.
Per the agreement, Germany and Poland are cutting off land imports by the end of the year. That leaves Canada, which is okay with importing through the US, but that requires refinery adjustments. The administration claims everything could be sorted out in 40 to 60 days.

Edit: It's definitely not "nothing," considering Russia made comments about the European Union being economically unviable, and the Netherlands already had its gas supply throttled.

wiredseal7 said:There were whispers that this doesn't apply to the pipelines—probably just Orban's way of playing hardball.

For us, this summer is going to be a real riot. Since we're basically a major road-trip destination here in the States, current gas prices are already going to wreck us. I'm not sure if they're pulling the trigger now or at the end of the year, but even the mere threat of these measures sends pump prices climbing ahead of time.
Man, you have to wonder who's actually running this sad little Union...

Yeah, you can bet people won't be driving for their annual vacations.
Actually, maybe more people will opt for flying, though I'm not sure why they didn't jump on that sooner—unless you count the environmentalists and their whole "save the planet" thing.

The European Union apparently reached some kind of deal regarding the ban on Russian oil imports, though we’re still waiting on the specifics.
On top of that, there's the Sberbank exclusion from SWIFT and a ban on broadcasting three more Russian state TV channels.

Putin’s attempt at blackmail—demanding an end to economic sanctions in exchange for unblocking Black Sea ports—was rejected.
Russia needs to squeeze out just a little more profit under these sanctions.

Lisa Jackson7 said:Facts... the second wave of globalization is dead and buried. We're heading straight back to bloc politics—the USA leading one side, China leading the other... and Russia will probably just tag along with China.

Merkel mentioned how multiculturalism failed us, and now it looks like globalization is following suit.
The divide between two major blocs is already becoming impossible to ignore.

Brenda Murphy3 said:Look, I get it—there's probably no way I'm gonna change your mind, but some things are just straight-up facts. There isn't a single country on this planet that could brush off sanctions like this without feeling the sting. Especially when you're talking about a developing nation with a shaky economy that’s basically built entirely on exporting energy. Saying otherwise is like saying 2+2 doesn't equal 4 and we should just wait for the math to prove it... it's just not how reality works.
Trying to artificially prop up the ruble and stuff? That's not a long-term fix. It's total nonsense.

(By the way, when you're dealing with a regime as repressive as Russia's, it's seriously sketchy to trust any news coming out of there... because you can find yourself in the government's crosshairs real quick, and then you're gone... at least for a few years, if not for good). Those YouTubers claiming "everything is fine" are straight-up lying... and we're only two months into the sanctions..

+ Plus, Europe is already pivoting to new suppliers. Germany is openly hunting for alternatives. The President is traveling through Africa, and they're welcoming him with open arms.
That’s a long-term shift. Even if the war ends through some sort of deal, the process has already started and it isn't stopping. Russia won't be returning to the European market on that scale ever again. They've been pushed out—or rather, they pushed themselves out. They know it too, which is why they're turning toward Asia. Things will never go back to how they were, despite the words the President spoke at the start of the conflict.