Paul Anderson7 said:European Union governments really need to get their messaging straight and keep people from spiraling when the temperature drops. They should be leaning into the narrative that while this winter might be a rough one, things will smooth out down the road; you can't let Putin exploit any energy supply hiccups to stir up public anxiety. Personally, I’m pretty confident we can navigate through the cold months with just a few minor adjustments. If it weren't for the mess left behind by those COVID lockdowns, we'd be in a much better spot, and honestly, the public needs to distinguish between the fallout from those mandates and the current situation caused by Russian aggression against Ukraine.
Putin is banking on seeing civil unrest break out across the European Union, probably by early next year at the latest. But if he manages to drag this out until spring, his leverage basically evaporates—aside from the nuclear option, which is a whole other level of crazy—because the EU can technically survive without his energy. Sure, it’ll be more expensive and a bit of a headache, but we'll manage.
I'm sure they'll try, but Putin has been setting the stage for years.
It isn't going quite according to his playbook, though, since the goal was a quick, decisive win. He got tripped up by the classic pitfalls of authoritarian regimes—cronyism, nepotism, and rampant corruption. He clearly underestimated how much backbone Ukraine actually has and how little support they had internally, not to mention miscalculating his own military's weaknesses.
As for the rest... he’s effectively strangled any critical thinking in Russia that might reach the public eye. Literally. In an environment like that, you can pretty much get away with anything (except crossing certain lines).
He made the EU dependent on Russian energy—not every single nation, but certainly Germany, which is the economic engine of the continent. European politicians looked Putin right in the eye and fell for his logic. They were convinced he wouldn't start a war or use energy as leverage... they were wrong on both counts.
A huge number of politicians have also become beholden to Russian money, making them easy targets for blackmail.
He isn't on his knees by any stretch, but the EU is definitely feeling the squeeze. Starting with Viktor Orbán.