Posts by Bryan Booth82

goldenpuma84 said:Funny thing is, everything you guys say about how sanctions hit the Russian economy applies just as much to the European economies, yet you act like it's not happening, you little pro-American types...

Look, the sanctions imposed on Russia by the West might eventually pose a challenge to Western economies, but only to the extent that they can't find replacements for the energy resources they used to import from Russia. As things stand right now, they're managing just fine; they're actually doing better than expected.
As far as I'm aware, there are price caps on energy imports like gas and oil from Russia, not a total ban on importing them.

On the flip side, exports from Western economies into the Russian market never really had massive volume anyway, since Russia isn't exactly a huge or incredibly wealthy market.

The whole Narrative that sanctions will crush the West while Russia won't feel a thing is so incredibly naive that even serious Russian propaganda doesn't bother using it anymore. From the very moment sanctions were introduced, the message from The White House was clear: they would demand the lifting of sanctions in exchange for delivering gas or allowing grain shipments out of Ukraine.

Expect those demands from The White House to become more frequent soon, except this time, they'll be conditioning them on concessions made on the front lines.

I truly hope the West doesn't cave, no matter what happens... maybe never, and maybe not even then.
Best regards

Noah Diaz said:What’s actually the point of sanctions when Russia has more than enough resources to sustain itself, especially since their main allies are China and India? They're trading completely unfettered, getting everything they need without breaking a sweat.

It’s like you’ve blocked the front door, but they’re just walking in and out through the back entrance, the windows, the garage, or even the basement. The leaks are everywhere.😁

No matter how hard you try, you can't argue with basic math.
The logic is dead simple: war is expensive, and someone has to foot the bill.
The more they have to buy at high prices while selling their own goods at a discount just to keep moving, the faster they'll run out of cash.
Sanctions take a long time to kick in—especially at the start—but once they gain momentum, they accelerate until they eventually crush the economy.

I would love to see all those people who constantly lecture us about how sanctions don't do a damn thing to the Russians still hanging around here in another year or two... but based on experience, I know they'll vanish just like 90% of the people on the Russia thread did.
Best regards,

They really ought to slap sanctions on everything they touch. Russia isn't exactly some massive, wealthy powerhouse, and if they actually follow through with comprehensive sanctions... let's be honest, Russians are total status-seekers. They’ll keep buying whatever luxury goods they crave, sure, but they’re going to end up paying an absolutely ridiculous premium for them.
Lp

Nathan Evans78 said:Looking at the long-term outlook, the budget is definitely taking a hit, which isn't great. But honestly, since I’m not seeing those chaotic street videos coming out of Moscow, I’m guessing they can probably limp along and patch things up for another couple of years. 😁

Based on the data we have regarding the reserves held by Russia, predictions suggest they could hit zero as early as late 2023... provided they keep burning through cash at this exact rate while trying to maintain social stability and funding a war...
Supposedly, once that happens, combined with the sanctions already in place, their inability to take on new debt, and the fact that they can't sell resources like they used to before the war... we're talking total bankruptcy.
I honestly think Russia 2024 is going to be a make-or-break year, though obviously, that all hinges on how things play out on the battlefield...

Best,

Thomas Walker84 said:Maybe it’s just a matter of insufficient payment, or maybe he's been rebranded as a sleeper agent who will now function more or less as a Putin critic and an ideologically moderate voice. I don't think Russia & Co. could even imagine losing (this) war, so they're likely already securing their assets and setting up future sleeper cells that will blend into the background, waiting for a better historical moment while lobbying for Russia in a much more subtle, hidden way.

I’ve noticed that this guy has been pumping out either anti-West pamphlets or reeks of blatant pro-Russian propaganda for years now. So, the theory that he’s simply adapting to new conditions and receiving fresh instructions from the White House... well, it seems entirely plausible.

lp

Did the West actually succeed in backing Russia into a corner with sanctions? Putin's 'rainy day fund' has nearly been cut in half in just one year

Preliminary data from the Russian government shows that their budget deficit surged to $24.78 billion in January, driven by a massive drop in revenue—specifically from energy sales—combined with a sharp spike in spending.

I’ll be the first to admit I don't claim to be an expert on macroeconomics, but honestly? It’s incredibly satisfying to see that even someone like me could have predicted exactly how this Russian aggression would wreck their economy.
lp

PUTIN IN A PANIC
A top-tier trader just dropped this bombshell: ‘This recent oil move proves Russia has officially lost the energy war!’

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy-war-oil-impact-15304847

"Now that Europe is finally adjusting to life without Russian gas, why on earth would they ever go back?"

Written by: Gojko Drljača Ebote 🤔 😵 😁
Seriously, what are we even looking at here? One of Putin's biggest propaganda "journalists" in America has suddenly decided to flip the script.
I honestly can't believe my eyes. What happened? Did the checks from the Kremlin finally stop clearing? I guess even the most biased hacks have to pay their bills eventually... right?
Don't sell out now, Gojko... 😁

lp

Nathan Evans78 said:Now, on paper, this might make sense from a moral perspective and wouldn't directly hit the taxpayers in the European Union, but since it could seriously shake public confidence in the banking sector, I see it as nothing more than a smoke screen.

I mean, today it's Russia, tomorrow it's China, and the day after that, it's the Gulf monarchies...

Actually, I disagree completely. If you're acting with that much arrogance and making such disastrously bad calls—just look at how Russia handled things—then you have nobody to blame but yourself for failing to secure those funds when you had the chance. The fact that the money stayed right where it was isn't some systemic failure; it's a direct reflection of how functional the banking system is and how utterly incompetent the Russians are.

They simply couldn't wrap their heads around the fact that they would desperately need that cash to fund an invasion.
In the end, that money will just be used to clean up the massive mess they created themselves...
Best regards,

electricsurfer47 said:What do you guys think would happen if Russia ditched the ruble entirely and started using gold as their main currency? Just thinking hypothetically here... would gold end up being more stable than the ruble? Probably, right?

People have been talking about gold becoming the go-to currency for ages, which is probably why so many countries are hoarding it in their reserves.

Anything is possible, really. Right now, it feels like Russia is just scrambling to "put out fires." Honestly, I can't wrap my head around what they’d actually gain by forcing gold into the payment system, or how on earth they'd make that functional in a modern economy... but let's be real: even if they did, it wouldn't touch the deficit, which is only going to keep ballooning over time anyway.
Best regards,

Carl Lee27 said:It really does look like they've dipped into some gold sales just to keep covering the deficit. My guess is the big buyers are mostly everyday citizens and banks. Honestly, right now, moving your savings into gold instead of holding onto the ruble feels like the only rational move left on the board.
https://1prime-ru.translate.goog/sta...en&_x_tr_hl=X

Back in January, the Russian budget was already running a $25 billion deficit. And remember, that was *before* all the embargoes and the restrictions on oil derivatives really kicked in. They might have a little bit of breathing room left, but it’s coming, and it’s coming fast. The ruble is essentially living on borrowed time.

Now you start to see the sheer brilliance of Western sanctions; they’ve effectively backed Russia into a corner where they are forced to slash the prices of the very resources they rely on to survive.

Because their top-tier customers in the West have drastically cut back on purchases, Russia is being forced to dump its resources at rock-bottom prices. This creates a massive hole in their budget, which causes them to sink even deeper, forcing them to liquidate whatever precious reserves they have left just to stay afloat.

If you ask me, we are going to be witnesses to a total systemic collapse over the next few months—both economically and militarily.
Best regards,

Nathan Thomas12 said:To follow up on that—Russia’s production has taken a massive hit, yet their GDP is somehow still climbing.
It really makes you wonder about the sheer scale of how much they're dumping into war spending. Honestly, it looks like they're headed straight for a total meltdown—government spending is usually a dead giveaway for that kind of mess.

Production is down, gas sales have cratered, oil exports are sliding, and as of today, even their petroleum products are seeing a drop...
Best,

Nathan Thomas12 said:From day one, every Western politician has been preaching about how sanctions would have a massive long-term impact.
Putin has been saying the sanctions won't touch Russia.
You're just quoting Putin—so why aren't you quoting what the Western leaders are saying? Look, whether the Russian GDP fluctuates in 2023 doesn't matter nearly as much as where it stands in ten years. It’s not rocket science.
Just so you're clear on the math: GDP isn't just about production; consumption plays a huge role too. This means Russian production could actually drop while their GDP still climbs. How? Simple—massive government spending on the war effort. But yeah, they can't run that play forever.

Well, that is a much more comprehensive explanation, even if it isn't the "popular" take.
Best,

Joshua Myers432 said:If they managed to put the first man in space, I suppose they can figure out how to manufacture a gas turbine. 🤣

They didn't need it before; now they have no choice. In the long run, the West is actually doing them a favor. Instead of just sitting on their oil and gas reserves without innovating, they're being forced to actually build something useful. Maybe we could take a page out of that book. Instead of just renting out vacation rentals, changing linens, and flipping burgers on a grill, maybe we should try manufacturing something intelligent for a change.

The only thing more naive than thinking they'll seize Ukraine in a matter of days only to be greeted by flower parades, is believing they'll suddenly start manufacturing everything themselves overnight.🤦

The mentioned Siemens boss, who actually understands how an economy functions, put it quite bluntly: Russia has nothing to offer the world besides oil and gas. To expect them to produce high-quality, modern industrial goods while buried under sanctions? That’s nothing more than a fairy tale for toddlers.

Best,

feralhawk45 said:Exactly. That was my point all along.

The other day, I’m watching TV and there’s this former big shot from Siemens—a guy who apparently met with Putin three separate times, mind you. Now, Siemens does gas turbines, right? And this guy basically admits that when it comes to the economy, Russia has absolutely nothing to offer besides oil and gas...

It just hits me: are you kidding me? You’re sitting on all that gas, yet you can't even manufacture a decent damn turbine yourselves?🤔
Putin thought he could hold the European Union hostage by threatening to cut off the gas, but now he can't even guarantee the supply himself. What a joke.

Best,

feralhawk45 said:Sanctions are being bypassed regardless. Some Russian commodities—raw materials—will always find a buyer, just like sanctioned goods will always find their way to Russian consumers.

The real issue for the Russians is the math. They’re forced to dump their raw materials at a massive discount while paying insane premiums to acquire anything under sanction.

And isn't that exactly what sanctions are designed to do? To bleed them dry through those margins.

lp

Donna Harris11 said:Actually, if you look at how they’re bringing in the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republic, I guess they're seeing a bit of a population bump right now.

Sure, that was part of their twisted logic, but let's be real—the cost is absolutely staggering. In the end, they’re going to lose far more than they could ever hope to gain from this temporary theft of neighboring territory.

For nearly a century, Canada served as a sort of demographic "overflow tank" for America, without them ever having to turn into an occupying force just to bolster their numbers. (They tried to pull that indirect move twice, but it fell apart immediately.)

The bottom line here is this: how can military conquest of a neighbor to boost population counts possibly be anything other than counterproductive? It makes zero sense!
Lp

Nancy Gomez26 said:They will. As long as they can maintain a modern nuclear arsenal—or at least project the illusion that they can—no one from the outside is going to touch them, provided they don't go chasing after more "special military operation" fantasies. My view? Russia will crumble from within due to demographics far sooner than they fall to external forces. The makeup of the country will shift, and politics will follow suit. It isn't as if all the various ethnic groups within their borders have strong population numbers to begin with.

No one in the neighborhood is going to attack Russia; the country is going to implode on its own. Once that happens, their nuclear weapons become nothing more than expensive, useless toys. They simply won't have the numbers to hold the federation together anymore. Is it any wonder they obsess over this "Russian World" concept? It's because the "Russian factor" is fading so rapidly that they're desperately grasping at shadows.
Lp

electricsurfer47 said:I wanted to kick off a different kind of conversation here. It’s not really about the sanctions, but more about the war itself.

I was digging through some data and found these population numbers from 2021.
In Russia, there are about 146.9 million people. Out of that, you've got 68.1 million men (about 46%) and 78.8 million women (54%).

I also read somewhere else that before the mobilization even started, roughly 6 million people had already fled the country—and most of them were men.

The stats I'm seeing suggest that around 110,000 have been killed.

--------
If this war drags on for another full year, how many men do you think will actually be left in Russia?

Look, the actual combat losses aren't even the most critical part here; they don't even come close to the impact on their already catastrophic demographics.
Essentially, this war is the absolute last-ditch effort for Russia to chase its pathetic imperialist pipe dream.
In 10 or 20 years, Russia won't even be capable of securing its own "original" borders.
If you look back 30, 50, or even 70 years, Russia had a much larger population than it does today. Is it any surprise that this war and these sanctions are just accelerating an inevitable downward spiral?
To put it bluntly, Russia is completely screwed. They aren't functioning on any level—except, of course, in their own propaganda.
Lp

Roughly speaking, just by slapping a price cap on the US oil industry sanctions, Russia is bleeding out $200 million every single day compared to what they were pulling in before.

If they lose that much more on top of all those other sanctions—none of which have ever hit a nation with this kind of intensity in the history of mankind—what are we looking at? 🤔🤔

And don't even get me started on the actual cost of the war itself...🤔

My personal estimate? They are looking at a massive deficit of $200 billion... annually.

How much longer can they actually hold out before they hit total bankruptcy? 🤔
Democratic Party

William Miller12 said:The whole LNG terminal project on the Gulf Coast has been dragging on for over two decades. People were talking about it back in the late 90s, and the first consortium was put together around 2005 or something...
But hey, it finally got done just in the nick of time.

___

Honestly, just thinking back to how that specific crowd—most of whom have vanished into thin air by now—used to write about the LNG terminal here in the States regarding the Russia situation makes my blood boil.
It wasn't just rhetoric; it was blatant, paid-for propaganda fueled by money straight from Russia. I’m fairly certain Gojko Drljaca was pumping out one of those pieces every single week in The New York Times... the man was practically being bribed to push this narrative. Seriously, he could have built himself a massive estate just outside of Moscow on that kind of cash.

Best regards,