Posts by Bryan Booth82

George Robinson43 said:Oh, the top politicians definitely thought about it—but primarily regarding their own bank accounts. 😉

To recap:
Germany — zero LNG terminals, shutting down nuclear plants, closing coal mines!
Austria — entirely reliant on Russian gas.

Poland and the Baltics — LNG terminals, the Baltic pipeline, and contracts with Equinor.
United States — an LNG terminal.
Italy — three LNG terminals with 15 billion cubic meter capacity, plus increased flow through Transmed.
Bulgaria !!!! — building a pipeline for the Greek LNG terminal in Alexandropol, massive storage deals (5.5 billion cubic meters), and storage capacity at the Revithoussa LNG terminal near Athens, including equity stakes.
Romania — breaking ground on a massive LNG terminal in Constant, participating in the LNG Danube project, possessing significant domestic gas that just needs more drilling, and relying mainly on coal and hydro.
Canada — connected to Transmed and Algeria; they could cut ties with the Russians tomorrow if they wanted to.

Essentially, everyone except the Germans who were hooked on Russian gas has either already diversified or has projects slated for completion by 2023. Everyone prepared for the storm.
The Germans? Absolutely nothing. How? Why? The only logical explanation is that they were bought and paid for.

Should we feel sorry for them if they freeze? Not when a corrupt administration built a terminal with 2.6 billion cubic meter capacity. It's common sense.

It would make sense to speculate that politicians were only looking out for their own wallets, but only if Germany weren't a democracy... sorry, sounds cool, but it doesn't hold water in reality.

The truth is this: German energy policy has almost always been built upon cheap gas from Russia. This isn't some recent development; it’s a long-standing tradition dating all the way back to the Cold War.
Perhaps they thought that if they could maintain this setup back then, it would last forever.🤔

Of course, the industries that profited from cheap Russian gas (and still are) were essentially "backing" the politicians, ensuring they wouldn't change too much.
Now, those very same people are the loudest ones whining about what might happen if they run out of gas.

The idea that individual politicians did this solely for personal gain is a pretty naive explanation.🤦

Best regards,

David Torres2 said:Nothing is a "game changer" when you're already breathing through a straw. They had plenty of time to prepare.

It’s the truth—they completely botched the station and the station manager too... now they're scrambling to make excuses. But they're doing it at a high level; money isn't the issue, they just need a little more time to spin their way out of this mess.

lp

David Torres2 said:The Germans?
Oh, they totally could. It’s just that nobody has the backbone for it right now.
Looks like they've fully committed to this path, no matter what happens.

Let's be real: Germany never even had a significant reliance on nuclear power plants to begin with.
Right now, they could easily extend the operation of three plants for another year, or alternatively, sink that capital into refurbishing them and replacing the nuclear fuel to keep them running for the next five years.
There are discussions happening about these options, but let's face it—this isn't exactly some massive Game Changers move, is it? 🤔

Best regards,

George Robinson43 said:And there you have it! They'll be remembered as the fools who let their leadership turn into little puppets for Russia, especially since nobody spoke up when it became clear the Chancellor was handed multi-million dollar cushy jobs in Moscow once he retired.

At first glance, you might think one thing, but let’s be honest—the reality of the situation is a completely different story.

Cheap gas is still flowing into Germany... just like it has been for the last fifty years. And let’s be honest, isn't that exactly what fueled the entire backbone of the German economy? It’s a pattern we've seen play out for decades, and it's hard to argue otherwise.🤔
The real issue here—the absolute core of this disaster—is that nobody has any clue when this cheap gas supply will actually dry up. And why? Because the people in charge failed to plan for the reality of being dependent on a single source. They were shortsighted, plain and simple. They’ve effectively handed over the keys to the kingdom, creating a situation where Germany can be held hostage by fear. How can you run a modern economy when you're constantly looking over your shoulder, terrified that someone might just flip a switch and shut off the flow entirely? It's pure political blackmail, and we're all feeling the consequences.

The primary objective for policymakers today has to be breaking this cycle of dependency—specifically, ensuring that Germany is no longer held hostage by Russian gas. How much longer can we allow our energy security to be dictated by a single foreign power? It’s high time we pivot toward true independence.
If they don't actually pull this off within two years—which is exactly what they promised us—then we have every right to be seriously concerned. Seriously, where is the accountability? If they miss this deadline, what else are they lying about?

I can't even begin to wrap my head around the sheer incompetence on display here. Is anyone actually paying attention, or are we all just sleepwalking through this disaster? It’s one thing to make a mistake, but it's quite another to be this consistently, spectacularly wrong. How many times does the same pattern have to repeat before someone finally decides to act? It's maddening!

swiftjackal11 said:It's like any natural disaster. You take one step back just to take two steps forward.

That’s basically my take on it. I honestly believe that economies within the European Union will adapt to these new conditions relatively quickly.
In contrast, I suspect Russia is going to face massive hurdles trying to adjust to the very economic landscape they themselves triggered.

Sure, Russia will scramble to find new "routes" to dump their energy supplies, but they are losing a wealthy, incredibly reliable customer in the process. Given how dangerously dependent they are on those fuel sales—not to mention the weight of the sanctions already in place—it could potentially effectively "break the back" of the Russian economy.

Best,

swiftjackal11 said:If Germany ends up broke after this, we can all just go graze in the fields.

They aren't going to be poor—in fact, they’re likely to get even wealthier.🤔

Just a few days ago, they released the latest data—something they do constantly—detailing the labor market stats, employment rates, unemployment numbers, and so on.
Supposedly, there are 400 thousand fewer unemployed people compared to the exact same window last year.🤔🤔

On the flip side, I’m hearing these projections about what would happen if the supply of Russian gas to Germany were actually cut off... which could lead, both directly and indirectly, to 200 thousand unemployed workers.🤔🤔

Democratic Party

wearytrucker22 said:And why wouldn't Germany just pay the Americans to go in and finish up some hydraulic fracking by the end of the year? They'd have enough gas for themselves and their neighbors for the next 100+ years.

Because Russian gas has been incredibly cheap for the last fifty years, and let's be honest—Germany is absolutely obsessed with cheap energy... and cheap food.
As for actually performing fracking within Germany? That is a mission that is practically impossible.

lp

Nancy Gomez26 said:Give it 730 days—gas will still be flowing through pipelines from Russia toward the European Union just fine. Perhaps the European Union might secure some alternative routes, maybe a few more pipelines from Africa or the Middle East, or perhaps they'll add an LNG terminal or an underground storage facility—just as a safety net—but the bulk of it will still come from Russia. It is entirely possible the supply won't even skip a beat.

That’s basically the situation, with one glaring difference: that flow of gas from Russia into the European Union... I guarantee you... will be cut by at least half within 730 days from today.
Mark my words, we'll see about that.
lp

Larry Fox5 said:Well yeah, obviously—they relied on cheap gas for 30 years to fuel their entire manufacturing sector, and every study showed demand would plummet by 2030 anyway.

Who could've actually seen this coming? Besides, at the start of his political career, Putin was a completely different player altogether.
Even the most hardcore Putin fans couldn't have predicted this current "sickness"...

Besides, until a year ago, the guy in charge in the US was the one who slapped tariffs on steel by executive order. It's all the same—it doesn't matter which side of the aisle sends a lunatic to power.

When you actually "rewind the tape," Putin hasn't changed much since he took power... he was the same psychopath then that he is today.
What he is doing in Ukraine has been his plan from day one; it’s just that the West wanted to believe that notorious liar because it was much easier to do so.

On the flip side, the West—and Germany in particular—profited immensely from this, which is why they played dumb. They pretended they didn't see a thing, clinging to that naive mantra of "change through trade."
And this is the mess we're left with today.
But regardless, wars are won by economies, not by supersonic missiles or Chechen mercenaries.

lp

Paul Sanders5 said:If only we had a reliable way to generate power that was actually accessible—something that’s already working wonders over in Germany...

But it just didn't fit into that specific vision of Europe Mutti was chasing. You know, her and Russia, basically walking hand in hand.

Nobody is asking Angela Merkel or Gerhard Schröder for their opinion anymore, which is why people keep obsessively bringing up their names whenever they talk about wind power.

You can always try to "spin" the narrative to suggest that Germany only stayed profitable because of cheap Russian gas over the last 50 years...🤔
But let's be real: you could actually thank that cheap energy from Russia for keeping the economy competitive enough to weather the 2008 crash and the COVID crisis without breaking a sweat... all just so they could have the capital to beef up their military and support Ukraine now.🤔

lp

George Robinson43 said:Even the Baltic pipeline is nearing completion. It runs from Equinor's fields in the North Sea, through Denmark, straight to Poland, where it connects to the supply line for the Baltic states.
By January 1, 2023, we're looking at a capacity of 10 billion cubic meters. This is all part of the massive strategic push to decouple Poland and the Baltic region from Russian gas—utilizing LNG terminals and direct links to the North Sea.
Essentially, the Danes, Poles, Lithuanians, Latvians, and Estonians have been thinking ten years ahead of the Swabians—if we can even call those Kremlin employees like Schroeder, Mutti & co. "Swabians" at all.😉

Look, let’s be realistic here about the sheer scale of what we're talking about. Germany's appetite for natural gas is absolutely massive. If they actually want to make a serious dent in their reliance on Russian supplies, they can't just rely on the hope that enough LNG will magically show up to fill the void—because, quite frankly, they don't have the infrastructure for it yet. They need to pivot toward alternative energy sources immediately, and I mean *immediately*. But even with this sudden, frantic push to accelerate the transition, we have to face the facts: real change takes time. You can't just flip a switch and expect an entire industrial powerhouse to run on nothing but sunshine and good intentions overnight. Is anyone actually under the illusion that this happens in a weekend? It’s a monumental undertaking, and despite the urgency, there's no way around the reality that building out that kind of capacity is a slow, grueling process.
I can't even begin to process this level of nonsense. Seriously? Is this really the best we can do? It’s absolutely pathetic. Are we just going to sit here and let this pass without a single word of scrutiny? I refuse to accept such a lack of substance. It's insulting, frankly.

David Torres2 said:Do the math again. How are you getting 150 if you need at least 10 trips just to cover one billion? For 50 billion, it can't be 100-150.
My math isn't actually about the total number of ships (there aren't even 200 out there), it's specifically looking at Germany, not all the other countries that also import from Russia. My calculation doesn't even factor in transit time (about two weeks) or unloading time (maybe 15-20 hours). Plus, where is everyone else in the world who also imports via LNG tankers? Germany doesn't even have a single LNG terminal right now. I'm done talking about this.

I'm telling you, things will just keep going exactly as they are. People will pay through third parties or whatever, but it'll keep moving.
Cheers

Yeah... but when you actually dive into the specifics... take Germany, for example... they consume about 87 Billions of cubic meters annually. They import 90% of that, and half of those imports come directly from Russia. That means we're talking about roughly 40 Billions of cubic meters that would vanish instantly if imports stopped.

Then there's the consumption factor. They claim industry eats up 30–40% of the gas, households use 30% for heating, and 14% goes toward power generation... plus everything else.

A third critical variable: summer heating requirements drop off, so demand isn't constant. Because of that, there used to be a rule where imports were scaled back during the summer months.
On top of that, naive Germans left everything to "market forces," failing to prioritize building up reserves—which are currently sitting at a measly 25% capacity.

Supposedly, if Russia were to shut off the taps, the "least painful" route would be to kill power production (-14%) and pray for an early summer (-30%)... while simultaneously cramming the storage tanks using gas imports during the months when demand is naturally low.

The current paradox is this: the longer Russia continues to supply the gas, the easier it actually becomes for Germany to consolidate its position and organize the necessary stockpiles to gradually phase out their reliance on Russian gas.

It's worth noting that the government claims they will end their dependence on Russian coal and oil imports—the sectors where Russia sees the biggest profit margins—by the end of this year. That leaves only the gas issue to resolve.

Best,

David Torres2 said:I can't help but wonder if this whole demand to pay for gas in rubles is actually just Putin's way of taking a swing at those local Oligarchs.
I mean, think about it—no major bank outside of Russia is going to touch those rubles to swap them for Dollars or euros.
It’s basically the opposite in Germany; everything there is going to grind to a halt if they don't get enough gas or oil soon. For instance, those LNG terminals that are supposed to make up for the lost capacity?
They aren't even scheduled to be ready until 2024.

The whole situation feels like some twisted endurance test to see who runs out of air first. Honestly, both Europe and Russia are probably going to lose this one.

According to the latest analyses regarding what might happen if the gas flow from Russia actually stops, the impact on the German economy isn't nearly as catastrophic as people fear—provided they pull the same kind of political levers they used back during the 2008 crash and the COVID crisis.
Supposedly, the negative fallout should only be around the level we saw with the pandemic... maybe roughly -3%.
I, for one, am crossing my fingers that Putler finally turns off the gas tap.
Best regards,

wearytrucker22 said:From Russian propaganda
Russian manufacturers are basically just repackaging imported wine now.
The massive headache right now is the corks, since they import them from Portugal and Spain. For instance, a winery based out of New York City was forced to scramble for domestic suppliers on the local market just to build up a two-month reserve.
Glass bottle costs have jumped about 20%. Sure, local plants make them, but they rely on imported components, like specific dyes for the glass. Back in March, production costs for glass in rubles spiked by 12-15%, and we're going to see that hit retail prices in the second quarter.
Even labels—front and back—are averaging a 65% price hike. Wineries are looking to swap them out for domestic alternatives, much like they're doing with the corks—switching from oak cork to aluminum or plastic.
https://www.rbc.ru/business/01/04/20...?from=newsfeed

They’ve got 2 million tons of sugar, but it's all sitting in those massive 2-ton bulk bags.
The packaging plants are stalled. Even though the paper itself is technically local, the factories are at a standstill because they can't get the chemicals needed to make the paper, let alone the glue or the ink for the labels. They're trying to source some barrels soon, but eventually, stores will just have to buy and sell sugar in bulk. There's plenty of paper in China, but the railroad lines are booked solid; they can't spare a single extra freight car. Plus, there's a chronic shortage of truck drivers, which is pretty classic.

Just adding to this.
It's likely the military has messed up the freight schedules by prioritizing troop movements; they always get the right of way, leaving everything else sidelined. As for the locomotives, I don't quite grasp why there's such a crisis with the engines and maintenance parts.

And here's the craziest part. The regulatory agencies over there are about to roll back automotive standards. Basically, they're going to start cranking out Ladas and VAZs without any European electronics.
We're talking no ABS, no Airbag, no Euro-spec common rail diesel engines, no traction control, no AC, etc.

Essentially, these cars will be stuck in the 1980s in terms of engines, tires, and bodywork. From an electronics standpoint, you'll just get 12v lights and turn signals. 😁😁🙏

War is an incredibly expensive hobby, especially when half the money you planned to spend suddenly gets frozen tight.
Best regards,

hollowdriver13 said:So what, did they tighten the valves in Russia too much, and now we can't even turn them?
Man, Putin really left us hanging...🤔

Ebiga, those sanctions hit the WD-40 too hard—now I can't even grease the damn things.
Best regards,

Nathan Evans78 said:Boeing could actually see some real profit here; once winter hits Germany, the demand for sweaters is going to skyrocket.

If things actually go that far, we’re talking about what happens in Russia... at that point, I might as well use the Ruble as wrapping paper.
Best regards,

Putin supporters are busy cheering for Putin because he managed to snag some kind of "strategic victory," acting like we’re all going to be paying for gas in rubles or euros next 👍
It’s easy for Putin to claim success when his entire strategy consists of calling it a "voluntary withdrawal" every time his military gets absolutely decimated... you know, the kind of "withdrawal" where they leave behind nothing but smoldering, burnt-out tanks. 👍
Best,

Brenda Murphy3 said:First off—this was written by Gojko Drljača, which is basically an instant red flag telling you not to take any of the absolute idiocy in this article seriously.

Second—Gojko is a total Putin sympathizer who actually dreams about scenarios like this; he’s been practically sucking up to Putin more times than I can count. Only a complete moron, or someone who's a die-hard Putin supporter, could try to paint Putin as some kind of brilliant strategist... and honestly, those two groups usually overlap quite nicely...😁

Oh, please, Gojko Drljača...🤣🤣

If you ask me, he—and by extension, The New York Times—isn't just being a Putin sympathizer... they are much more likely just following orders.
Just pay up and we'll write whatever propaganda you want.

This isn't some new trend; it’s been their business model for ages.
There used to be way more pro-Russia rhetoric in The New York Times... but now, it seems the editorial line shifts based on whoever is cutting the biggest checks.

lp

Nathan Evans78 said:USD/RUB at 81? Now we're talking! lol

Can we just talk about those 20% interest rates on the ruble for a second?🤔🤔

lp

rowdytiger13 said:Russia has been threatening to pivot entirely toward Asia for a long time now, and honestly, let them. They’ll be dealing with different players, different rules, and a completely different kind of "predator" out there.
Maybe they'll find themselves being the "weak" ones or just another group of snowflakes over there.

Oh, don't you worry one bit; they'll be crawling back to the West begging for us to take them back before you know it.
Best regards,