Posts by Bryan Booth82

dustyowl29 said:But what does "victory" even look like? Is it just ousting Zelensky and installing some pro-Russian puppet regime that nobody outside of Moscow will ever recognize?

There is no such thing as victory here. If they had managed to topple the Ukrainian government at the very start, things would be looking a lot different right now. As it stands, they might grab the Donbas, but they’ll likely stall out somewhere halfway through—unless they decide to go nuclear on Ukraine, though I doubt they'd go that far...
If they settle for a chunk of territory and call it a win, it won't stay quiet for long. With Western backing, the Ukrainians are eventually going to try to take back what was lost—maybe even all of it. It'll be like those intense counter-offensives we see in history books.

The most likely outcome of this entire insane aggression is precisely what you just laid out.
The only real question left is: how much longer can this madness actually last?
Best regards,

It’s honestly pathetic how much drama there is now that Mexico isn't on such good terms with its "motherland." As if it even matters! Whether Russia collapses or stays afloat, does it actually change anything for us? I highly doubt it.
Best regards,

Robert Habeck, the German Minister of Economic Affairs, just announced that within "the coming days," Germany will finally break its dependence on Russian oil.
Faster than anyone anticipated, wouldn't you say?

At the exact same time, Gazprom has officially cut off gas supplies to Poland.

Look, I’m certainly no economic expert, but isn't it obvious what this means? These two developments combined represent a massive, immediate hit to the cash reserves sitting in Moscow's coffers.

lp

swiftjackal11 said:Do the fans in Russia realize that if they actually win, Ukraine gets slapped with sanctions too? It would leave a struggling Russia stuck trying to rebuild everything under even more pressure.

That kind of logic is about as grounded as assuming the Earth is a flat disc! It’s pure fantasy. The idea that Russia can just stroll in and seize a specific slice of Ukraine is one thing, but thinking they could ever occupy the entire country? Give me a break.
Lp

Timothy Kim9 said:How much sense does it actually make to send S-300s to Ukraine? We’re talking about hardware so expensive that
Russ will gladly throw two or three Iskanders at it just to take it out. And you can't even
complain—it's just a standard wartime objective. How much are we burning through here? $200 million?
Russ will spend maybe $2-3 million.
In my view, we should be focusing on organizing air defense using smaller, mobile
units to pick off Sukhoi and MiG jets first. Then, an S-300 (or 400, or whatever similar system) could be
brought in as the "crown jewel" of the air defense network—where everything else is positioned specifically to protect the S-300.

It is more than enough for Russ to simply know exactly how that weapon was delivered and exactly where it’s sitting somewhere in Ukraine. Is that really too much to ask? Does it matter if they have the precise GPS coordinates right this second? No. The mere fact that the delivery route is known and the location is established within Ukrainian territory is sufficient to drive them mad. Why complicate things with unnecessary details when the psychological impact alone does the job?
Lp

Sam Alvarez4 said:The coal embargo actually kicks in at the start of August, not September.

From what I can see, the sanctions are definitely working.
But this is just the beginning... there's much more to come.

German media is reporting that the coal sanctions—which were requested by Germany—have been extended by one month... as of yesterday. 🤔
If that's the case, we should be looking at April. 🤔
Lp

Ryan Morales4 said:Interesting... the Czechs and Slovaks are actually sending weapons...
While the Frenchmen, Germans, Dutchmen, Norwegians, Italians, Austrians, Swiss, Spaniards, Danes, Swedes, Finns, and Canadians... what on earth are they sending?!!

Oh, they are sending plenty—they just aren't making a big scene about it.
LP

Sarah Mitchell2 said:These sanctions are a joke. The EU is basically banning everything except gas, which just means we'll end up paying a premium for it while Russia keeps enough cash flow to sell their resources elsewhere without breaking a sweat.

But hey, if they want to play dress-up, let them.

I disagree. That gas being sold to the European Union via pipeline? They can't just ship that anywhere else.
Germany pulls in about 66 billion dollars a year from gas sales alone, and another 106 billion from oil.

The word is Germany plans to stop importing oil this year and cut off the gas by 2024—at least, that's the official plan.
Best regards,

Morgan Wright5 said:Well, I suppose you could argue a tank is essentially just a mobile anti-tank platform itself.

Exactly! And let's be honest—a tank is an incredible weapon if you actually know how to wield it properly... which is to say, if you don't operate it with the sheer incompetence we've seen from the Russians lately.
Best regards,

Ryan Morales4 said:I don't see the point in focusing on armor...
That kind of thing requires fuel resources that we are rapidly running out of...
It would be far more important to deliver mobile air defense systems and anti-tank weaponry instead.
That is where the priority should be.

Word on the street—according to sources close to the front lines—is that they actually have plenty of anti-tank weapons, and their air defense coverage is surprisingly solid too. What they are truly starving for is offensive capability, and you can't pull off an offensive without armored vehicles.
Best,

The Czech Republic has become the first NATO member to deliver tanks to Ukraine. 👍
Honestly, I think we’ve reached a point where there are no longer any real limits on weapons deliveries.
Over in Germany, they’re currently debating sending over 100 armored vehicles; word is they've already started the inspection process, because you know how it goes—you can't get anything moving with the Germans without a rigorous technical inspection and a specific manufacturer's plate.

Best regards,

This conflict actually presents a massive opportunity for NATO members who are still sitting on mountains of old "Russian" surplus. Why not finally clear out the inventory by sending it over to support the Ukrainian Armed Forces?

Best regards,

Kyle Nelson2 said:Kohl was the one who pushed her into power, and she basically stabbed him in the back... she definitely isn't naive.

What exactly do you mean by "driving a knife into someone's back"?🤔
Lp

Mark Harris66 said:It’s not crazy at all. It isn't just about how she messed up regarding Russia—she’s tripped up on so many other things too. If you look back at what I listed about her in other threads back in 2015🙂...
I mean, honestly, "naivety" is a pretty easy way to land a seat leading a superpower (you can't even get elected to lead a small local community of 2,000 people if you're that clueless, let alone hold a major global position)
. Sure, she’s not the only one to blame—there are plenty of others—but she definitely bears a huge chunk of it. She's responsible for a lot of the mess within the European Union.
Putin is the one responsible for the war in Ukraine.

This isn't some episode of "Servant of the People."

Let’s skip all the talk about being weighed down by guilt or making excuses🙂...

P.S. The West is never going to truly grasp Russia—they'll never understand how they actually think. Just look at how the West ignored everything happening in the USSR under Stalin... actually, they stayed silent about it (and according to Russian demographers, somewhere between 60 to 110 million people perished within the USSR from 1914 to 1958), while guys like Sartre were even finding excuses for that kind of situation. Sapienti sat.

Personally, I find this whole mantra a bit naive—this idea that the West will never understand Russia, or that Russians are somehow uniquely different... 🤦
Sorry, but romanticizing "Russian exceptionalism" is just an empty narrative.

It wasn't actually difficult for the West to figure out what the Russians wanted; the reality is they essentially behave and think exactly like the West did a century ago. They aren't introducing anything new or revolutionary; they are simply lagging behind, operating under the delusion that the rest of the world stopped spinning.
It's nothing more than a smaller-scale version of what we've witnessed in the North America: a volatile cocktail of mythomania and archaic nationalism that has been lost in both time and space.
Best regards,

David Torres2 said:Yeah, maybe 3%... but only if they keep the gas flowing like they have been.

The latest projections suggest a hit anywhere from -3% to -6% if they actually pull the plug on Russian gas imports.
Just for some perspective... COVID caused about a 5% hit.

Keep in mind, these are the estimates for Germany—one of the most critical economies in the entire European Union—regarding their reliance on Russian gas.

Best regards,

Larry Fox5 said:The only way they’ll actually do that is if they're total idiots—because first and foremost, it’s just going to screw themselves over. Sure, it would hurt the Russians in the long run, but in the short term? That move isn't stopping the war at all.
Lindner is a responsible guy, so I doubt we'll ever see it happen...

Look, if there is an agreement reached within the European Union—and according to Olaf Scholz, those high-level discussions are already happening—then Lindner doesn't get the final say anyway.

lp

The pressure mounting on the German government to immediately halt all imports of gas, oil, and coal—following those horrific war crimes committed by the Russian military—is becoming impossible to ignore.

It’s even being whispered that calls for an immediate shutdown are coming from within their own administration, specifically from the Secretary of Defense.🤔
I can't help but feel that if they finally decide to cut ties with Russia, they could actually pull it off and lead the entire European Union to follow suit. Is it really too much to ask?

Best,

"There is simply no such thing as isolating Russia; trying to pull that off in today's interconnected world is technologically impossible," stated Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov during an interview with the state-run broadcaster Rosi 1, according to reports circulating through Russian news agencies.

Well, look at that—it seems the influence is already starting to take hold even sooner than I had anticipated.👍

lp

wearytrucker22 said:Oh, please. Come on, tell me which country is actually going to buy Russian gas in the same volumes as Europe. What, North Korea? And who is going to buy crude oil at the scale the EU does, especially when the EU bans fossil fuel vehicles by 2030-35? Maybe Somalia or some other powerhouse African economy? I heard they're already shifting all their financing from the West over to the Rwandan stock exchange.

What they were selling to Europe until now was clearly the absolute ceiling; since the aggression against Ukraine began, both delivery volumes and total revenue have started a slow but steady decline.
The Baltic states and Poland reportedly aren't taking any more... the US has stopped buying it, and Germany has announced plans to drastically cut gas imports from Russia while completely ditching oil and coal within this year.

That gas being pumped through pipelines into Europe... apparently, there isn't any way to export it anywhere else. So, these inevitable reductions will lead to one thing: less money sitting in the Russian treasury.

Best,

George Robinson43 said:Really?
Then how do you explain the Chancellor’s cozy relationship with Gazprom and Rosneft?
Did that just happen by pure coincidence?

An exception doesn't make a rule.
Besides, while he was holding office, he wasn't working against the interests of the United States for his own gain, and even after leaving, he hasn't actually broken any laws... even if his moral compass is completely broken.
I find it hard to believe that Gaspar is cutting him million-dollar checks that aren't being reported to the US government.
He serves as a perfect example of how *not* to behave—or rather, how one shouldn't act—but to frame this entire thing as simple greed and try to link it directly to his time in active politics? That’s just incredibly naive.
Like I said before, it sounds great in theory, but it's pure naivety.

lp