Posts by Andrew Miller102

boldotter2 said:What's the deal with these MANPADS? And where on earth are the Pantsir and Buk systems? I guess they just don't exist in the Russian military anymore? Or maybe they drove them through too much mud and lost their tires and tracks! 🤣

Fuel supplies right next to the front lines? Totally unprotected. Man, I guess you have to wonder how someone could be that reckless to order and approve that! 🤦

Man, it’s a tough call now. I guess you can try to frame this whole disaster as some massive blunder, or maybe act like it was some genius 4D chess move... geez, what a mess!🙂

It’s been common knowledge for a long time what an AH-64 Apache—or its latest variant—is capable of. If there aren't any MANPADS nearby, or if the crew handling them is inexperienced, you're essentially walking into a trap. To take down a helicopter, you don't need a Pantsir or a Buk; a standard MANPAD does the job just fine, provided you actually know how to use it. There's a very well-known example from the US that speaks for itself, so there isn't much else to say. ☕

boldotter2 said:I guess there's logic to that. We haven't really seen their artillery getting wiped out yet. And since they managed to save their air force, the artillery just needs to find its voice...

As for the drones, I think the only real bottleneck is how fast they can make them. From what I gather, it's a small company that isn't quite used to massive wartime production levels yet.
They'll need some time to ramp up, but I mean, who will do it if the Americans won't? In a few months, it'll probably be raining Switchblade drones.

You might not have noticed,😁 but that’s mainly because Ukrainians don't broadcast their losses, and the Russians generally couldn't care less about showing off every single piece of enemy hardware they take out. The Russians disabled that unit down there a month ago, but the Ukrainians only just decided to show the world this expensive piece of air defense gear they lost.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status...91605432741888

I'm not blind, but from everything I can see and everything that's public knowledge, the Ukrainian air force practically doesn't exist right now. You really only have two possibilities: either they are hiding, or most of them have been wiped out. Realistically, they can't hide for long, given that all the airbases and aircraft locations are well-documented.

Take today's Ukrainian strike using two AH-64 Apaches against a fuel depot in Russia. It’s textbook tactics—flying extremely low and praying you don't run into a MANPAD. If there aren't any MANPADS nearby, you end up with a situation like in Syria where the AH-64 Apaches can just fly in and get the job done without much trouble.



People are still fighting, so you would think a fuel depot—especially one sitting so close to the Ukrainian border—would be somewhat protected.The Russians completely slept on this one; instead of being proactive, they should have at least stationed a couple of soldiers with shoulder-fired MANPADS around the perimeter.A fool learns from his mistakes, but if that's how they want to play it, then there isn't much else to say.☕

boldotter2 said:There are plenty of American M109 self-propelled howitzers out there. Honestly, any version would help Ukraine, they just need to find some surplus somewhere.

The Germans used them until their own self-propelled howitzers arrived. I wonder where they all ended up.

It’s more like a first aid kit solution. They'll probably build their own stuff later anyway.

The real question is whether UA can even keep those systems running given the damage from the war. It feels like the Russians "denazified" everything possible by hitting the factories and service centers.
The main thing is that they hold onto that know-how so they can jump right into rebuilding their industry once things settle down.

Are you referring to the Ukrainian defense industry? If the reports are accurate, most of that capacity has been wiped out. It’s hardly surprising that those heavy Russian cruise missiles have been consistently hitting precisely selected strategic military targets from the start. Just because the Ukrainians aren't broadcasting every single hit—and we all know why—doesn't mean those missiles didn't find their marks.

https://twitter.com/thesiriusreport/...20714260307970

If you look at the broader picture, Twitter is constantly ablaze with footage of destroyed Russian tanks and armored vehicles. But at the end of the day, we both know who is actually absorbing the massive military losses here.☕

gentlestag15 said:Look, Neon comes about 70% from Ukraine, so I'm not sure how much that actually ties into sanctions against Russia.

Meanwhile, regarding Palladium exports:
Russia is at $6.4 billion
United Kingdom is at $5.4 billion
USA is at $5.4 billion
Italy, Germany, and Belgium are around $2 billion each

Europe has plenty of Palladium available, but Neon doesn't depend on sanctions—it depends on Russian bombs.

He's basically just digging his own grave with these sanctions.👍

If you actually bother to read the links,😁 everything clearly distinguishes between what relates to sanctions and what's a direct result of the war in Ukraine. There simply isn't any Neon coming from Ukraine anymore; production has either ground to a halt or died off entirely.

Ingas, a firm based in Mariupol,

Cryoin, a firm out of Odesa.

If you pay any attention to where chips are manufactured, you'll realize the major players are incredibly worried. TSMC in Taiwan is leading that anxiety, which makes sense given they are the linchpin for most Western customers. AMD, Qualcomm, Sony, Microsoft, Nvidia, MediaTek, and Apple are just a few names on a much longer list of companies whose hardware relies directly on TSMC's production capacity.

Europe seems to produce nothing but politicians and fog; if TSMC production ever stops for any reason—and China is always lurking nearby—we're looking at an epic-scale crisis. Even the auto industry is heavily dependent on TSMC for the various chips and SoCs integrated into modern vehicles.☕

wiredseal7 said:You guys are drifting—I told Maskeron that not all countries handle sanctions the same way.

Most of the ones hitting Russia are still forced to import their raw materials. That wasn't really the case with other sanctioned nations.

If that’s the point you're making, then "you also have to consider that most people are completely oblivious to those lesser-known but unfortunately vital or irreplaceable raw materials". We aren't talking about oil or gas here; if you want the specifics, check out the links below.☕

Sam Alvarez4 said:In a coordinated move yesterday, four European Union nations announced they are kicking out Russian diplomats:

Belgium: 21
The Netherlands: 17
Ireland: 4
The Czech Republic: 1

European Union countries Belgium, the Netherlands, Ireland and the Czech Republic on Tuesday announced the expulsion of dozens of Russian diplomats

Slaps are flying from every direction... 🙏

That’s all well and good,😁 but once gas shortages hit and factories start shutting down their production lines, the mood is going to shift pretty quickly.

The Germans are acting incredibly reckless here, though honestly, anyone would be if their entire manufacturing sector was tethered to Russian gas.☕

swiftjackal11 said:Natural gas comes from places outside of Russia too, it was just much easier to get it from them before. Now, things have changed.

The reality is we need cheap supply,but opting for something like liquefied natural gas from Qatar or the US is going to be significantly more expensive. You can't expect alternative gas supplies to just fall from the sky, particularly not right now when the shortage is hitting us hardest.

The US is fighting a proxy war against Russia through Ukraine, so they’ll be more than happy to sell expensive gas to Germany. At the end of the day, it's all about the profit margins, and I've maintained before that conflict is simply an inevitability.☕

Chris Thomas94 said:Well, all that stuff we’ve been whispering about? It’s finally official now:

It’s a pretty brilliant move, really, laying everything out in the open and being transparent about exactly what's heading into Ukraine.😵

It isn't as if Russia hasn't figured this out already, and acting like having a Patriot missile guarding that airfield provides some kind of ironclad security is optimistic at best. A Patriot is essentially useless if Russia decides to retaliate by tossing a few Kinzhal supersonic missiles their way just for the hell of it.☕

Since the UAE decided against slapping sanctions on Russia, we’re seeing the fallout play out in real time. The US is going to lose its grip on those F-35 sales—leaving the door wide open for the Chinese—while Bashar al-Assad, the very man Washington was trying to erase from the map, just cruised right into a friendly visit with the UAE elite.☕

https://twitter.com/thesiriusreport/...95774709153793

William Anderson5 said:The Germans are really at fault for this entire mess. They spent years convincing everyone across Europe that the Russians weren't using gas as leverage, claiming it was all just American propaganda. Then, right after the annexation of Crimea, they doubled down on building ST2... Meanwhile, they don't have a single LNG terminal to show for it. It’s just pure incompetence...

Merkel will go down in history as the new Neville Chamberlain...

And let’s be honest, the Germans basically hold the European Union together,😁 though you can't exactly bypass the French either if you want things to move. When one of the main pillars of the EU fails this catastrophically at planning for the future, you can bet the rest of the smaller nations are going to suffer the consequences.

Besides, we all know the Americans couldn't care less; they're perfectly happy fighting Russia through a convenient Ukrainian proxy anyway.☕

Adam Lee13 said:Honestly, if Germany keeps playing it this way, there’s no future for the EU—it’s basically going to fall apart. Even the UK checked out because of how much the Germans love to push their own agenda and act like they run the show.

Merkel really did a number on the EU.

The truth is, the Germans are just looking out for themselves and letting whatever happens happen afterward, plus they have absolutely no intention of fighting unless they're hit directly. If things escalate and the supply of Russian gas gets cut off, German industry is going to be left completely stranded.

What exactly is he expecting here—that the French or Americans will just jump straight into a war? The city is essentially surrounded on all sides, and we should all remember what happened in El Paso.☕

Dennis Price said:Great. So even more pressure on Russia to just get out of Ukraine☕

You're reading too fast—and you aren't the only one—so maybe try actually processing the links instead of just skimming them. That’s where the real issue lies.😵

If Russia controls 40% of the global supply of Palladium, where exactly do you plan on sourcing it once they decide they're done playing ball?☕

- sanctions = getting hit by a nasty boomerang effect.

rowdytiger13 said:The European Union has approved a four-part package of measures, which are set to take effect in just a few hours.

You can bet there's going to be a massive upside to this, if you ask me.

Given that Palladium is already trading higher than gold, we could very easily see Palladium jumping to two or three times the price of gold in short order.

The entire semiconductor industry is absolutely scrambling right now, so all you really have to do is sit back and watch the prices for consumer electronics—say, things like iPhone accessories—skyrocket. The real issue is that there simply isn't enough raw material available, whether we're talking about Palladium or any other essential chemical elements required for standard manufacturing processes.☕

Carl Lee27 said:Someone mentioned earlier in the thread how much Russia relies on imports just to keep their agricultural sector running, especially when you look at stuff like seeds.
And honestly, Bayer (who owns Monsanto) is wielding that exact leverage right now.

Bayer has threatened to suspend crop supply sales to Russia next year unless The country stops its attacks on Ukraine.

The German drug and agrochemical conglomerate, which is basically a powerhouse when it comes to seeds and crop treatments, mentioned they're weighing the idea of cutting off essential farming supplies to Russia—even though everyone knows a move like that could send global food prices through the roof and cause all sorts of chaos.

Bayer did say they already sent over the necessary products for Russia for this year ’ S Growing season in an attempt to help stabilize the global food supply, but they're holding off on any decisions regarding the 2023 crop supplies until they see how things play out in Ukraine.

https://www.ft.com/content/cf2c7515-...f-23827dff2ef4

On top of that, there are still several ways the U.S. could really ramp up the sanctions, like slapping on a total embargo or even cutting off Russia's access to International waterways.

Quote : Thus, Adeyemo said in an interview with the TV channel that the United States was still considering a complete trade embargo and blocking Russia's access to international waterways.

The official pointed out that the United States is currently discussing everything from banning imports of nickel, uranium, and titanium from Russia to cracking down on the crypto assets held by Russian entities.

https://interfax.com.ua/news/general/813329.html

Either the Americans are chasing foolish ideas that aren't actually feasible,😁 or they can certainly try if their ultimate goal is to escalate this conflict into WWIII.☕

Bryan Booth82 said:If someone isn't there, the world moves on without them. That is exactly how it will play out with Russia.

The West won't collapse because of this aggression... but Russia could very well face bankruptcy.
The West will adapt, just like it always does.
In my view, Putin has fundamentally overestimated Russia's importance, and the bill for that massive miscalculation is already coming due.
Best regards

Russia probably won't go bankrupt, but they are certainly headed for some serious trouble.

The shortage of various raw materials presents a much larger headache than your average internet user sipping coffee while scrolling through CNN or the New York Times would ever realize..

Prices are going to spike quite violently, and when they do, either you or I am going to feel the sting of those inflated end-product costs here in the States. To give you an idea, look at Palladium—where Russians control about 40% of production—and then consider Neon and Krypton.

https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20220309PD206.html

"Ukraine accounts for nearly 70% of the supply of purified neon and krypton – both are essential in making semiconductors"

New supplies of these materials aren't just going to materialize out of thin air, unless you decide to place a massive order with some incredibly wealthy Klingons. It’s easy to slap on sanctions, but if you can't function without Palladium, you're stuck, because there is simply no substitute.

So, try adapting if you can, but if you find yourself unable to operate without a specific resource, you've clearly mismanaged your hand. We all know how this plays out: China, India, or even Turkey will likely be more than happy to keep doing business with Russia and buy up whatever they're selling. It follows the usual pattern: the Russians sell Palladium at a premium directly to the Chinese, who then act as middlemen, reselling it at even higher markups to the Germans or the French and so on.☕

An American military base near the Polish border, or more likely, a staging ground used for funneling all those weapon shipments and donations into Ukraine.☕


"Just a quick reminder that Russia warned the USA and the West yesterday about the consequences of sending weapons to Ukraine. 'Corresponding convoys will become legitimate targets for the Russian armed forces,' stated Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov."

Carl Lee27 said:Ukraine has officially put in a request for more help with those S-300 systems. This comes right on the heels of word coming out of Washington, D.C. that they're actually looking into it

OSINTdefender
@sentdefender
The Ukraine Government has Officially Requested The delivery of additional S-300 Air Defense Systems and their Missile Reloads fra Former Soviet Block Countries or Countries Who purchased them during / after The Cold War

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/sta...24572834824194

Honestly, this is nonsense, and there is no way it’s going to help Ukraine defend itself against Russian aggression. It won't change anything; it's just shooting into the void because nobody actually wants World War III.

The S-300 is a defensive air defense weapon and a single missile costs about a million dollars. The Russians are just waiting for one to be activated so they can send out specialized missiles designed specifically to take out radar surveillance and guidance systems.

The S-300 is expensive hardware, and I'll say it again: in a conflict with Russia—who know exactly what an S-300 is—this kind of aid is completely negligible.

Americans seem to struggle with making decisions for themselves, so they come up with all these half-baked ideas. While the Americans are busy dreaming up these blunders, we certainly aren't having any dull moments over here in the States.☕

silverotter72 said:It wasn't just that Americans don't fly at medium or low altitudes like the Russians do. I mean, given how the Russians operate, you could probably hit something with a damn Kalashnikov if you tried hard enough...

They do occasionally dip down, though, depending on the situation, especially since they’ve been heavily jamming Iraqi defenses and radar systems. Once you drop low enough, you’re basically inviting a MANPAD to the party, and then whatever happens, happens.

You don't see footage like this every day—a Su-25 in Ukraine getting taken out by a MANPAD. It keeps moving as if nothing happened, at least based on the video we have to go by. Still, it isn't much of a surprise given its reputation as a flying tank. The American equivalent to that flying tank is the very well-known and widely used A-10 Thunderbolt.🍿

Gerald Chavez7 said:What are you talking about? Germany is sending both Stingers and Strela-2. They've already downed several planes and helicopters using Igla; having these extra MANPADS could definitely help.

What am I talking about? I'm sticking to the facts, so there's no reason to claim you didn't see what I wrote.The Strela—or more accurately, all the various versions of the Strela—is old tech, and that needs to be pointed out.These missiles are essentially spray-and-pray; they might hit something, but most of the time they miss when they run into modern thermal countermeasures. Using Strela against old MiGs, or trying to take down a MiG-21 with these aging Strela models, is a decent enough tactic.

Igla has been known to take down modern aircraft too, including the F-16, the Tornado, and even the Mirage 2000.

During the first Iraqi conflict in 1990, Iraqis fired plenty of different Strela missiles at American planes, but they mostly just hit nothing. Regarding that Igla you mentioned, the Americans later admitted to having an F-16 brought down by the far more effective Igla.🍿

Rachel White812 said:

The European Union promised fighter jets to Ukraine, but the ‘plan’ fell apart in just 24 hours: ‘We don't have enough to be handing them out anymore.’

Honestly, how unprofessional can you get?
I am just completely floored by this level of European Union diplomacy—it’s honestly embarrassing behavior, all this posturing and sending little messages over Twitter... like, wtf?

It feels like nobody is actually doing the hard work of real diplomacy or trying to de-escalate things; instead, we're seeing massive escalation and, well, as this article shows, just a lot of empty talk.

Their mouths are moving faster than their brains, so they promise the world whenever things get heated or they feel emboldened.

It’s hardly surprising they backed down, or perhaps they finally got a cool head and realized just how dangerous that move would have been.



Action leads to reaction, and thankfully, they decided against such a reckless maneuver.☕

https://obris.org/nato/propao-plan-o...tKC3htX1Fgs9RI