Posts by frozenhound9

January 28th

Today marks the first semifinal match of the European Championship, featuring Spain against Denmark. Even while missing several key players, Denmark completely controlled the game against France, only allowing them to snatch a victory in the final minutes. They have maintained an elite level throughout this tournament, and crucially, they are healthy and rested their stars specifically for this semifinal. On the other hand, Spain—the defending champions—have struggled through the second round. After a nail-biting win over Russia where the Russians missed a last-minute penalty, they dropped a game to Norway by four points. They barely escaped with a one-point win against Poland thanks to two clutch saves from Corrales in the closing moments. It’s also worth noting they are playing without Dujshebaev, and you can really feel that void. I suspect the World Cup winners, Denmark, will be too much to handle here. Expect a decisive victory that proves why they are the heavy favorites for gold.

Spain - Denmark (-3.5)
2
Odds: 1.55
Bookmaker: PSK

driftingotter47 said:Ultimately, we can debate whether this is playable or not, but my point is that this is an analysis based on relevant results, rather than just listing who plays whom or where they sit in the standings.

Look, criticism is fine, but I laid out the specific reasons why I chose that bet. To me, analysis isn't just staring at numbers—anyone can do that by checking a scores website. By that logic, you could place a bet on any matchup in any sport every single day. It shouldn't matter where teams sit in the standings; what matters is how they performed last June against squads that were "similar" to their current opponents (and "similar" based on standings which we already agreed don't drive the analysis😵).

Generally, I think most people aren't familiar with some of these players. Why is it considered bad to represent a team's strength by highlighting who will actually be on the pitch for this match? I missed the handicap in the end, so anyone can claim my reasoning was flawed, but I’m sticking to my guns. At the end of the day, if my style of analysis doesn't meet the house rules of this game, feel free to remove me. That's that. 😁

January 27th.

Today, we have a matchup in the Danish women's handball league between Odense and Aarhus. Odense has assembled an incredible roster this season, largely fueled by talent from Denmark and the Netherlands. They've brought in nearly all the heavy hitters from the Netherlands, including Abbingh, Housheer, Nusser, van Wetering, and Vollebregt. The team chemistry seems exceptional—I actually heard it directly from one of the players. You saw proof of their strength this past weekend when Gyor, the heavy favorite for the Champions League title, barely scraped by with a 27:26 win against them. Is there any doubt about the gap in quality here? I'm expecting a decisive victory for Odense. Looking at the standings, Odense sits comfortably at the top with 15 wins and just one loss, while Aarhus is sitting third from the bottom with 4 wins, 1 draw, and 10 losses.

Odense (-5.5) vs Aarhus
1
Odds: 1.45
Bookmaker: PSK

January 26. European Championship Handball

Today, Mexico takes on Iceland in their group's third-place playoff. While this might look like a minor matchup on paper, there is actually a lot riding on it. The two third-place finishers from their respective groups will play for fifth place, and the winner earns a direct ticket to the World Cup. Because of those stakes, I don't expect a relaxed game; instead, we should see a gritty battle. Both Mexico and Iceland boast incredible goalkeepers, so it would honestly surprise me if this game saw more than 58.5 goals. I suspect neither side will rush their possessions, and with the defense playing at such a high level, scoring will be controlled. Should we expect a defensive showdown?

Mexico vs Iceland
Under 58.5 goals
Odds: 1.35
Bookmaker: PSK

January 23

Tonight, Marin Čilić takes on world No. 9, Felix Auger Aliassime (or just Auger 😁). After his impressive performance against the favorite, Rublev, Čilić faces another top 10 player, though he certainly isn't facing an unbeatable opponent. Auger dropped two sets against Ruusuvuorij and one against Davidovich Fokina, so I really don't see anyone walking away with a clean 3-0 sweep here. In fact, with both players serving quite reliably, wouldn't it be reasonable to expect at least one tie-break? That’s why the line at DraftKings is set at just 32.5 total games. Almost any outcome that isn't a straight-sets victory should make this bet hit. It would honestly surprise me if we saw fewer than 32.5 games. There are even a few scenarios where someone wins 3-0 and the bet still clears.

Marin Čilić vs. Felix Auger Aliassime
Over 32.5 games
Odds: 1.30
Betting shop: DraftKings

frozenhound9 said:January 23rd

Tonight, Phoenix hosts Indiana at home. The Pacers are facing some major setbacks, as they likely won't have both Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner on the floor. With Malcolm Brogdon and Caris LeVert also questionable, Indiana might be significantly shorthanded. On the flip side, while Deandre Ayton is out for Phoenix, I think JaVale McGee provides enough quality as a replacement for both defense and offense. Offensively, I expect Devin Booker to take over more of the load without Ayton there. Booker has been in incredible shooting form over his last four games, dropping 35, 30, 48, and 28 points. In that 35-point performance, he was actually playing against Indiana. Even with Ayton in the lineup during that game, Booker still managed to take 25 shots. His line is set at 26.5 points tonight; that’s a high bar, but I believe he can clear it.

Phoenix vs. Indiana
Booker over 26.5 points
odds: 1.85
betting shop: DraftKings

I blink, I look away, and then I see Booker's field goal is 3/16.🥱

January 23

Tonight, Phoenix hosts Indiana at home, but the Pacers are dealing with some massive absences. They can't rely on Domantas Sabonis or Myles Turner tonight, and with Malcolm Brogdon and Caris LeVert also questionable, Indiana might be severely shorthanded. On the flip side, Phoenix will be without Deandre Ayton, though I think JaVale McGee provides plenty of value on both ends of the floor. With Ayton out, expect more offensive heavy lifting from Devin Booker. He’s been absolutely scorching lately, dropping 35, 30, 48, and 28 points over his last four games—and he actually scored 35 against Indiana in that stretch even with Ayton on the floor. The line for him is set at 26.5 points; is that too high? I don't think so. I believe he clears it.

Phoenix vs. Indiana
Devin Booker over 26.5 points
Odds: 1.85
Betting shop: DraftKings

January 22nd

We all know the struggles facing the US right now, so expecting a miracle against Denmark today would be pure fantasy. Denmark is coming in with a perfect record and hasn't been hit hard by COVID. Their only infected player is Lindbergh, who isn't exactly a cornerstone of their roster anyway. The US desperately needs this win, but after seeing what those Mexicans did to our defense from 9 or even 10 meters out, I just don't see our keepers—statistically the worst in the tournament—stopping Denmark's elite shooters. Last year, Denmark crushed the US by 12 goals using mostly their bench; frankly, I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar blowout tonight. Given how fast and efficient their style of play is, I’m putting my money on Denmark scoring over 29.5 goals.

Denmark vs. USA
Denmark over 29.5 goals
Odds: 1.30
Betting shop: DraftKings

01.20.

Here is a pick for today from the Handball Euro. France is facing the Netherlands, a team that wasn't really expected to make it to the second round. Still, they earned their spot here, and now they face an incredibly tough test against the Olympic champion. France showed exactly what they're capable of against Mexico, even if they did ease off in the second half and let Mexico close the gap to just four goals. Because of that, my prediction focuses solely on the first half. France will come out firing, and with players like Mahe, Mem, Descat, Karabatić, and especially goalkeeper Gerard, they are simply too much for the Netherlands to handle. I watched the matches involving Iceland, Canada, and Portugal—the teams the Netherlands faced in the first round—and my takeaway is that none of those opponents had a defense strong enough to stay competitive. Those games regularly saw around 60 goals, but I suspect that won't be the case against France.

France (-1.5 first half) vs Netherlands
1
Odds: 1.41
Betting shop: DraftKings

01.19. 18:45

Tonight, Metz hosts Kastamon in the women's Champions League. Metz leads the French league and performs exceptionally well in Europe, whereas Kastamon comes from Turkey with a rough record of zero wins in eight Champions League matches. With stars like de Paula, Burgaard, Horaček, Mičijević, Kanor, and Flippes, Metz is clearly operating on a much higher level than their opponents. On the other hand, Kastamon brought in a few players from Mexico this season, most notably Mehmedović and Radičević. But regardless of their individual talent, their backcourt is a disaster, which explains those poor results.
These two teams already met earlier this season in Turkey, where Metz cruised to a 30:20 victory. Can we really expect anything different today? I'm leaning towards Metz winning by 8 points or more.

Metz(-7.5) - Kastamon
1
Odds: 1.50
Betting shop: DraftKings

The US is facing Ukraine today in a match that will likely secure their spot in the second round. While the media keeps preaching caution and warns against underestimating the opponent, the reality is that the US should dominate this one. Ukraine lost by 8 points to Mexico and 13 to France; they were labeled as massive underdogs before the tournament even started, and their performance so far has proven that label right.

It’s been tough keeping track of the injury report for the US, but from what I can gather, Jakob Gojun is returning. Even better news is that Mandić has finished his one-game suspension. Having him back is huge, especially since we didn't manage to score a single goal from the left wing against Mexico. A victory by 5 goals or more feels like a very realistic outcome; honestly, anything less would be surprising and a bit disappointing.

Ukraine - USA (-4.5)
2
Odds: 1.30
Betting shop: DraftKings

driftingotter47 said:This is too good. We have Value on the Americans at 2.90, but even on our guys at 1.85 🤣 🤣 I haven't heard this one yet 🙏

If the odds for an America vs. Mexico handball match are 1.85 for America, I am placing that bet 999,999 out of 1,000,000 times.🤣

Joseph Newman31 said:January 15, 2022 20:30

USA - Mexico - 2 @ 2.90 (BetMGM)

Is tonight a make-or-break moment for the Americans? Both teams enter this matchup with completely different momentum. Mexico is riding high after a dominant opening performance against Ukraine. Meanwhile, the USA is staring down a must-win situation following their loss to France if they want any hope of advancing to the next round. Personally, I see this as a true toss-up; there isn't a clear favorite here. While Luka Cindrić returns to the lineup, the roster has been shaken up by recent COVID-19 cases, leading to the call-ups of Musa and Ravnić. Given the current instability within the American squad—dealing with injuries, illness, and questionable roster selections—I’m giving a slight edge to Mexico. At 2.90, the odds on a Mexican victory represent real Value.

I would play the exact same matchup as my colleague, though my pick would be the opposite. I'm going with an American win. I agree that 2.90 is solid value on Mexico, but I believe 1.85 is equally strong value on the USA. Even with everything going on, the individual talent on the American side is simply superior. Despite the absences, the players who faced France proved they belong, and we still need to see more from the likes of lamb and Martinović. The main headache will be the left wing, as both Mihić and Mandić are out, and Horvat opted for Ravnić over Štrlek again. However, having Cindrić back provides much-needed depth to the perimeter.

In that first game, Kukić was the standout for Mexico with 7 goals. But don't mistake my assessment of Ukraine as an understatement; they were genuinely struggling, which explains why major books like Bet365 had them ranked among the bottom four teams with longshot championship odds of 2501. Mexico certainly took advantage of that, and one has to wonder if that early euphoria might lead to complacency today.

USA - Mexico
1
Odds: 1.85
Bookmaker: BetMGM

January 14th. Esport - League of Legends - LEC

A bit of a different approach this time. Tomorrow (Friday, Jan 14th), the new League of Legends season kicks off, and this bet falls under the esports category. In the European league, known as the LEC, Vitality will face off against the defending champions, MAD Lions. Vitality is one of the wealthiest organizations in the league, which explains why they've brought in Perkz—one of the best players in the world—alongside Carzy, who just secured two consecutive titles with MAD Lions, and the reliable Alphari. Then there's Labrov, who spent a long time ranked as the top player in Europe. My prediction? A Vitality victory. While MAD Lions holds the last two LEC titles, they’ve lost two of their heavy hitters: humanoid and, of course, Carrzy. I expected much lower odds for this matchup, so I felt compelled to take this play for the date mentioned above.

Vitality - MAD Lions
1
Odds: 1.60
Betting Shop: FanDuel

January 11, 2022

The back-to-back schedule brings the Brooklyn Nets to town tonight to face the Portland Trail Blazers. For Portland, the injury report is looking grim; Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum, Larry Nance, and Norman Powell are all expected to sit out. Meanwhile, the Nets should be at full strength. Even better for Brooklyn, Kyrie Irving is cleared to play for this away game. Honestly, even with a full roster, Portland has struggled to find an identity this season. Now, facing a championship contender led by Kevin Durant, James Harden, and Irving without most of their starters? It seems unlikely they can pull an upset. Would anyone truly expect anything other than a Brooklyn victory?

Portland Trail Blazers - Brooklyn Nets (-5.5)
2
Odds: 1.35
Betting shop: PSK

The Toronto Raptors head out to face the Utah Jazz tonight. Normally, a Jazz fan would look at this season's performance and see Utah as the clear favorites, but things have shifted completely. Utah is heading into this matchup without their entire starting five and more than half of their bench. The injury report is brutal: Gobert, Mitchell, Bogdanović, O'Neale, Conley, Clarkson, Gay, Ingles, and Kelly Oubre Jr. are all out. Is there even a chance this game gets postponed? If it goes ahead, I expect Toronto—playing at full strength—to walk away with a decisive victory. The odds might continue to drop before tip-off, so it’s wise to lock this in early. 😁

Toronto Raptors (-6.5) vs. Utah Jazz
1
Odds: 1.40
Betting shop: DraftKings

If I’m going to keep betting, I might as well do it right. 😁
Tonight at 8:15 PM, we have Fleury vs. Metz in the French women's handball league. The matchup couldn't be more lopsided: Fleury is sitting at the bottom of the standings with a 0-0-9 record, while Metz is dominating at the top with a perfect 9-0-0. Metz is stacked with elite talent, including stars like de Paula, Burgaard, Horaček, Nocandy, and Kanor—players we saw competing in the world championship just last month, along with Mičijević. Their roster is simply on another level. At this point, the only real question is how large the margin of victory will be. I’m betting on Metz to win by 9 or more goals.
Their last head-to-head meeting ended 13-
.
Fleury - Metz (-8.5)
2
Odds: 1.50
Sportsbook: DraftKings

The New Orleans Pelicans are facing another lineup crisis tonight, missing key pieces like Jonas Valančiūnas, who has arguably been their most vital player this season. With Brandon Ingram's status also being uncertain, their offensive depth looks incredibly thin. On the other side, the Utah Jazz are heading into this matchup hungry for redemption after their recent loss to the Golden State Warriors. They boast an elite group of shooters, and more importantly, their starting five is fully healthy and ready to go. As one of the fastest-paced teams in the league, they average about 15 three-pointers per game. Given that efficiency, I expect them to run right through the Pelicans and clear at least 117 points.

New Orleans Pelicans vs. Utah Jazz
Utah to score over 116.0 points
Betting shop: Favbet
Odds: 1.60

Hi everyone. My pick is for the Milwaukee Bucks to cover the spread against the New Orleans Pelicans in the NBA. I'm looking at a -5.5 point handicap available at DraftKings with odds of 1.35. The main reasoning here is momentum; Milwaukee is riding a five-game winning streak. On the other side, New Orleans will be without Alexander Walker and Jonas Valančiūnas tonight, while Brandon Ingram and Josh Hart are questionable. While Milwaukee is missing Khris Middleton, it's hard to see the Pelicans compete with the current champions given all those absences. This feels like a solid play, so I'll be putting some money on it.

p.s.

I'm new here. Since the game tips off after midnight, should I count this toward my January 1st picks, or does it belong to January 2nd?

Milwaukee Bucks (-5.5) - New Orleans Pelicans 1
1.35
DraftKings