Boom Analysis Game - January 2022

Prize Pool: $133

1st Place: $67
2nd Place: $33
3rd Place: $33

Min odds: 1.30
Max odds: 3.80

Minimum number of analyses: 8
Maximum number of analyses: 22

No parlays from superchance or betbuilder.

For every parlay, you must list the odds, the sportsbook (Social Security, High Level, Germany, DraftKings, Personal Savings Knowledge, BetMGM, Caesars Palace), and the exact date and time of the event.

Every analysis must be posted no later than 20 minutes before the start of the event.

Low-quality analyses—anything shorter than 3 sentences or lacking any actual logic—won't count and will be deleted. Users posting them will get a yellow card as a warning before disqualification.

During the last 5 days of the month, you cannot post analyses for bets that have already been settled. During those final 5 days, each bet can only be analyzed once to prevent cheating.

The moderator reserves the right to change the rules or disqualify contestants if any attempts at manipulation are detected. My house, my rules.

Results

The final score is calculated by adding up the odds of every winning parlay and subtracting the odds of every losing one.

EXAMPLE

Odds of played parlays (winning odds marked in green, losing in red)

1.85
2.00
3.20
1.80
1.80
1.75
3.25
2.00

Final Score: 0.05

In the event of a tie in points, the following tiebreakers apply:

a) whoever has more winning parlays
b) the highest single winning odd

Starting this month, we're implementing a rule where you can only run a maximum of 4 analyses per day, provided you meet the minimum odds requirement of 1.30.

Good luck to everyone in the new year👍

Happy New Year, everyone! 🙂

Saturday, January 01, 2022

Glentoran-Larne 1X

If you’ve been following the Northern Irish league for any length of time, you know the deal: Linfield and Glentoran are essentially the heavyweights of this circuit. For years, Linfield was basically untouchable, but this season Glentoran has finally stepped up to the plate. It looks like it's going to be a dead heat between them and the "Blues" for the title. They’re sitting on the same points right now, though Linfield holds a slight edge in goal difference. Glentoran is looking absolutely electric lately—they're on a 14-game unbeaten streak, including 10 straight wins. Plus, they aren't dealing with any major injury headaches or suspensions today. On the flip side, you’ve got Larne sitting in 4th. Historically, they haven't really been anyone to worry about; they spent a long time grinding in the second division before finally turning things around a few years back. But man, the injuries are killing them. Last match, they were playing without six starters. They were missing defenders Kofi Balmer, Cain Bolger, and Dean Jarvis, along with midfielders Mark Randall, Fuad Sule, and Jeff Hughes. Balmer is back in the mix, but the rest are still sidelined, and they're also missing a key defender, Albert Watson, who went down in the last game. Larne has been leaking goals like a sieve against the top six teams—conceding 23 in just 20 matches—and with their defense looking this depleted, today is going to be an uphill battle. Especially since they're facing a Glentoran side that’s the most clinical in the league with 40 goals scored. Looking at the H2H stats in league play, Glentoran has hosted 8 times and walked away with a win 7 of those times, so they clearly have the upper hand. Between the home-field advantage, their insane momentum, the head-to-head history, and the fact that the visitors are decimated, I’m feeling good about taking the double chance on Glentoran.

1.35 DraftKings

Sunday, February 2nd

14:30 Kaval - Karditsa: Away team to score over 2.5 goals
American second division.
I don't know much about this matchup, but after doing some digging, I found some interesting data.
Karditsa is currently trailing the league leader, Xanthi, by 3 points after 9 matches (and only the top spot moves up).
They are in decent shape, sitting at 4-1-0 in their last five games.
The home team has played 7 matches with a record of 0-0-7, and a goal difference of 0:45.
They conceded 5 goals once, and 6 or 7 in all their other outings.
The odds seem good enough to give it a shot.

Personal Savings Knowledge 2.27

Hi everyone. My pick is for the Milwaukee Bucks to cover the spread against the New Orleans Pelicans in the NBA. I'm looking at a -5.5 point handicap available at DraftKings with odds of 1.35. The main reasoning here is momentum; Milwaukee is riding a five-game winning streak. On the other side, New Orleans will be without Alexander Walker and Jonas Valančiūnas tonight, while Brandon Ingram and Josh Hart are questionable. While Milwaukee is missing Khris Middleton, it's hard to see the Pelicans compete with the current champions given all those absences. This feels like a solid play, so I'll be putting some money on it.

p.s.

I'm new here. Since the game tips off after midnight, should I count this toward my January 1st picks, or does it belong to January 2nd?

Milwaukee Bucks (-5.5) - New Orleans Pelicans 1
1.35
DraftKings

stormyharbor13 said:Sunday, 02.02.

14:30 Kavala vs. Karditsa - Away team over 2.5 goals
American second division.
I don't know much about this matchup, but after doing some digging, I found some interesting data.
Karditsa is currently trailing the league leaders, Xanthi, by 3 points after 9 games (and only first place moves up).
They're in decent shape, going 4-1-0 in their last five matches.
The home team has played 7 games with a record of 0-0-7 and a goal difference of 0:45.
They conceded 5 once, and 6 or 7 in all their other games.
The odds look good enough to try.

ParlayBet 2.27

Damn, one of my parlays got postponed.

stormyharbor13 said:Man, it just got pushed back a bit.

That’s highly likely, and it definitely explains why the exchange rate is acting like this.😁

I did some digging, and it looks like the delay is due to the host having COVID-19. It’s a shame, I guess.

The New Orleans Pelicans are facing another lineup crisis tonight, missing key pieces like Jonas Valančiūnas, who has arguably been their most vital player this season. With Brandon Ingram's status also being uncertain, their offensive depth looks incredibly thin. On the other side, the Utah Jazz are heading into this matchup hungry for redemption after their recent loss to the Golden State Warriors. They boast an elite group of shooters, and more importantly, their starting five is fully healthy and ready to go. As one of the fastest-paced teams in the league, they average about 15 three-pointers per game. Given that efficiency, I expect them to run right through the Pelicans and clear at least 117 points.

New Orleans Pelicans vs. Utah Jazz
Utah to score over 116.0 points
Betting shop: Favbet
Odds: 1.60

If I’m going to keep betting, I might as well do it right. 😁
Tonight at 8:15 PM, we have Fleury vs. Metz in the French women's handball league. The matchup couldn't be more lopsided: Fleury is sitting at the bottom of the standings with a 0-0-9 record, while Metz is dominating at the top with a perfect 9-0-0. Metz is stacked with elite talent, including stars like de Paula, Burgaard, Horaček, Nocandy, and Kanor—players we saw competing in the world championship just last month, along with Mičijević. Their roster is simply on another level. At this point, the only real question is how large the margin of victory will be. I’m betting on Metz to win by 9 or more goals.
Their last head-to-head meeting ended 13-
.
Fleury - Metz (-8.5)
2
Odds: 1.50
Sportsbook: DraftKings

January 6, 2022

Sidorin-Churin 1

The odds aren't going to make you rich, but I feel about 99% confident in this one. It’s not even because Sidorin is some kind of elite legend; it’s just that Churin is absolutely miserable right now. For months, he’s basically been nothing more than a punching bag for everyone else on the circuit. Honestly, what can you even say about a guy who has lost 43 of his last 45 matches? He’s completely lost his rhythm, and there's no easy fix for that. On the flip side, Sidorin is playing pretty solid. Sure, he’s dropped three in a row, but he was facing heavy hitters—two bouts against LBov and one against Voronov. Before that stretch, he was cruising through a six-game winning streak. If you look at their head-to-head history, Sidorin has taken the last five meetings. Churin’s last win was way back in August of last year, but those were different times when he was actually putting up a decent fight. Every winning streak eventually hits a wall, but I don't see that happening today. I’m expecting the much sharper player, Sidorin, to take this one.

1.35 DraftKings

The Toronto Raptors head out to face the Utah Jazz tonight. Normally, a Jazz fan would look at this season's performance and see Utah as the clear favorites, but things have shifted completely. Utah is heading into this matchup without their entire starting five and more than half of their bench. The injury report is brutal: Gobert, Mitchell, Bogdanović, O'Neale, Conley, Clarkson, Gay, Ingles, and Kelly Oubre Jr. are all out. Is there even a chance this game gets postponed? If it goes ahead, I expect Toronto—playing at full strength—to walk away with a decisive victory. The odds might continue to drop before tip-off, so it’s wise to lock this in early. 😁

Toronto Raptors (-6.5) vs. Utah Jazz
1
Odds: 1.40
Betting shop: DraftKings

frozenhound9 said:The injury report lists Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell, Bogdan Bogdanović, Jordan O'Neale, Mike Conley, Dante Exum, Gay, Joe Ingles, and Kelly Oubre Jr..

They aren't actually out; they're just questionable for tonight, and honestly, they could easily suit up. The bet is still on the table, but if you're going to throw out stats, at least make sure they're accurate.👍

Saturday, January 08, 2022 15:30

Lama-Rodriguez 2

The Challenger semifinals in Buenos Aires feature a matchup between Lama and Rodriguez, and honestly, I’m leaning toward the Argentine tennis player taking this one. If you just look at the rankings, they seem pretty evenly matched—though the Argentine is sitting about 20 spots higher—but there's more to the story than just numbers. First off, his recent form is killer. Right before hitting this tournament, he was tearing through a Futures event, dropping only a single set the entire time. He even dispatched Torres in the final with a smooth 2:0. Since arriving in Buenos Aires, he’s cruised through three rounds, again losing only one set. Second, while most South Americans thrive on clay, Rodriguez proved last year he can handle hard courts just fine; his stats were impressive, going 26/9 on clay and an even better 40/16 on hard. Third, being the local favorite means he'll have the home crowd behind him, and we all know how much that energy can push a player. Fourth, looking back at their meeting last year, Rodriguez handled business with a comfortable 2:0 win. Finally, there's the age factor. Lama is 29 now, and you start to see that fatigue creeping in, especially since his last two matches went the distance in three sets. Putting it all together, Rodriguez looks like the smarter play here, and the value is too good to pass up. You could try betting on a straight 2:0, but I think a win is the main thing to focus on.

1.65 Admiral

Sunday, January 09, 2020 05:20

Koolhof/Skupski-Nedovyesov/Qureshi 1

It’s not about chasing some massive underdog payout, but if you look at this logically, it just makes sense. We’re looking at the finals in Melbourne, and both pairings are playing together for the first time. However, the Dutchman and the Briton are significantly younger and, predictably, much higher up in the ATP Rankings. You could even argue they’ve got the edge in terms of freshness, since Arneado and Mies actually walked all over their opponents by withdrawing before the quarterfinal match even started. In the semifinals, they cruised through with a 2-0 set win against Arevalo and Roger, who are actually a pretty solid duo. To be fair, their opponents had a relatively easy path to the final. In the first round, they faced Dimitrov and Goffin—guys who aren't exactly doubles specialists. Then came Golubov and Škugor in the second, and let’s face it, Škugor is more of a clay court specialist who hasn't really played a competitive match since June of last year. By the time they hit the semifinals, they were up against Berankis and Molchanov. And you don't even need to mention that Molchanov is a pure clay courter who's basically a disaster on hard courts. Think about the context here: this tournament is essentially a warm-up for the US Open. Everyone is hungry for a good result to boost their confidence heading into a Grand Slam. Plus, Koolhof and Skupski had a great run last year. Skupski, in particular, has been on fire with a 20/9 record, picking up two titles in Acapulco and San Diego, along with three finals appearances in Washington, Monte Carlo, and Miami. If raw talent and momentum decide this, I don't see any other outcome besides a win for Koolhof and Skupski. It’s also worth noting that Qureshi is 42 years old; he’s a long way from his prime. I’m not saying they’re going to get absolutely demolished, but the motivation is clearly on one side. They’re prepping for the US Open, and having fought their way to the final, they’ll be incredibly driven to take the title—a title they honestly deserve based on the quality of play.

1.45 Germany

jaderanger71 said:Saturday, January 08, 2022 3:30 PM

Lama-Rodriguez 2 semifinals

The Challenger semifinals in Buenos Aires are serving up a showdown between Lama and Rodriguez, and I’m putting my money on the Argentine tennis player to take this one. If you just look at the rankings, these two are pretty much neck-and-neck—the Argentine is sitting about 20 spots higher—but there are way more compelling reasons to back him than just a number on a spreadsheet. First off, his recent form is absolutely electric. Right before hitting this tournament, he was tearing through a Futures event where he dropped only a single set the entire time. He cruised past Torres in the final with a smooth 2-0 win. Since arriving here in Buenos Aires, he’s already notched three wins in three rounds, again losing only one set. He’s playing with massive confidence right now. Second, while Rodriguez—like most South American players—absolutely thrives on clay, he’s proven he can handle other surfaces too. Last year, his game was incredibly versatile; he posted a solid 26-9 record on clay, but he was even more dominant on hard courts with a 40-16 run. He’s got the tools to handle anything. Third, we can't ignore the home-field advantage. Rodriguez is playing in front of a local crowd that's going to be loud and supportive, and we all know how much that extra energy can push a player forward. Fourth, looking at their head-to-head history from last year, Rodriguez walked away with a comfortable 2-0 victory. He knows how to beat this guy. Finally, there's the age gap. Lama is 29, and honestly, you can see the fatigue starting to creep in. He’s had to grind through three-set battles in his last two matches, and that kind of physical toll adds up. When you weigh all of this together, Rodriguez looks like the clear favorite to this match, and the odds are too good to pass up. You could even take a shot at a straight 2-0 scoreline, but in my eyes, an upset here is highly unlikely.

1.65 PSK

He's 29 years old, so excuse me if he's a little tired! 🤣
Seriously, can we please stop with this absolute nonsense? I am begging you, quit posting such mindless, incoherent garbage! 🙂

Sunday, January 09, 2022 8:30 PM

Ponferradina-Zaragoza UNDER (2.5)

Checking out this match from the American second division, where I’m calling for a low-scoring affair—nothing more than two goals here. This league is notorious for being incredibly blunt up front; goal fests are rare, and I don't see much reason to expect a sudden burst of creativity today. Zaragoza is essentially the most stubborn team in the mix, playing a style that prioritizes shutting things down over scoring them. They sit at the bottom of the pack when you look at goals scored (only 17), but their defense isn't actually bad by any stretch. To put that in perspective, they've conceded fewer goals than Valladolid in second or Eibar in third. Ponferradina plays just as gritty, having surrendered only 20 goals—only Oviedo and the league leaders, Almeria, have been tighter defensively. Beyond the raw stats, there's a massive practical reason to lean toward the under: both squads are absolutely gutted by injuries and suspensions, especially in their attacking lines. Zaragoza is missing their top scorer, Vada, along with their third-best option, Nano, and regular striker Azon. That leaves them pretty toothless. On the other side, Ponferradina is missing Naranj, their second-best threat, as well as their starter Espiau. With those pieces missing, I just don't see a high-scoring shootout happening. If you look at the recent trends, Ponferradina has hit the under in four of their last five games, and Zaragoza has seen the under in 16 of their last 18 matches! Even in their head-to-head matchups, the under has landed in 6 of the last 8 meetings. When you crunch all this together, I'm expecting a cautious, grind-it-out kind of game with very few real chances. The under feels like the logical play here. Personally, I went with a heavier stake on it, but I wouldn't suggest anyone going overboard—you can never truly predict when a random goal might pop up. You could even peek at the under 1.5 if the odds are juicy enough, since seeing two goals looks unlikely, let alone three.

1.55 Lottery

January 11, 2022

The back-to-back schedule brings the Brooklyn Nets to town tonight to face the Portland Trail Blazers. For Portland, the injury report is looking grim; Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum, Larry Nance, and Norman Powell are all expected to sit out. Meanwhile, the Nets should be at full strength. Even better for Brooklyn, Kyrie Irving is cleared to play for this away game. Honestly, even with a full roster, Portland has struggled to find an identity this season. Now, facing a championship contender led by Kevin Durant, James Harden, and Irving without most of their starters? It seems unlikely they can pull an upset. Would anyone truly expect anything other than a Brooklyn victory?

Portland Trail Blazers - Brooklyn Nets (-5.5)
2
Odds: 1.35
Betting shop: PSK

Tuesday, January 11, 2022 01:30

Cobolli-Harris AH2 (+1.5 sets)

I honestly think there’s some real value in betting on Harris to grab at least one set here. Look, Cobolli is only 20, but let's not get ahead of ourselves calling him the "next big thing"—he hasn't really hit any major milestones yet. He's sitting at 199 in the rankings. It's worth noting that, much like most Italian players, he thrives on clay. For context, he grinded through 67 matches on clay last year, compared to just 9 on hard courts and 7 indoors. Most of those were just Futures level stuff, though he did make it to the third round of a Challenger in Bari before getting absolutely dismantled by Ott. So, nothing to write home about. Then you have the Australian, Harris. He’s 28, not exactly a superstar, but his game is built for hard courts. Last year at the US Open, he knocked out a solid Bemelmans in the first round, then took down Tara Daniel in Melbourne before falling to a heavy hitter like Dimitrov in the second. Beyond the surface-level fact that he prefers hard courts more than his opponent tonight, he’s playing on home soil. Having the crowd behind you can be a massive psychological edge. If you look at yesterday's results, you can see how much the home-court advantage matters—underdogs were making moves everywhere. O'Connell knocked out Travaglia, who was ranked way higher; Vukić stunned Bublik despite being five spots lower; and Saville managed to snatch a set from Nishioka, even though Nishioka was significantly better ranked. It just goes to show how much the local atmosphere shifts the momentum. Given the Italian kid's youth and lack of experience, combined with the fact that Harris is more comfortable on this surface and has the fans in his corner, I think he has a legitimate shot at winning the match entirely, let alone just taking a set. That 1.74 price at Admiral looks pretty tempting to me. I’m putting down a 4/10 on this one—a relatively light stake—even though I feel like the actual probability of this hitting is much higher than what the odds are suggesting.

1.74 Admiral

Tuesday, January 11, 2022 15:25

Mutavdžić-Lovrić 2 match

The match kicks off in just under an hour. We've got two very young players here, and while the oddsmakers have them sitting at dead even money, I honestly think the Canadian woman has a much better shot at walking away with this one. It’s all being played on clay, and Lovrić is a total clay specialist. In her three years on tour, she's played 77 matches on dirt. She had a really solid run last year, going 25/13. Even more telling is how she’s performed in her last two tournaments; she tore through a bracket in Antalya to reach the final without dropping a single set, though she eventually ran into a much tougher Schnaider. After that, she cruised into the quarterfinals in Turkey, again without losing a set before having to retire. On the flip side, you have Matilda Mutavdžić. Her ranking is about 200 spots higher, sure, but she’s a pure hardcourt player who looks completely out of her element on clay. Out of 45 matches she played last year, only four were on clay, and she lost all four. She did have a nice run to a final recently, but that was on a hard court, and then she hit a wall early in Turkey. I’m leaning toward a Lovrić win, mainly because of the surface and the fact that she’s two years older, which usually translates to a bit more grit. The value is there, though personally, I wouldn't bet more than 1.60 on the Canadian woman. It's women's tennis—don't go chasing shadows with your bankroll.

1.95 BetMGM