FA Cup, Friday Jan 27th 8:55 PM Lions - City X2 @ 1.45 SS (2-2) Betting unit 9/10
This coefficient is an absolute joke! Leicester is still playing brilliantly, they just haven't had a shred of luck with the results. They aren't any worse than they were last year—in fact, they’ve brought in some seriously heavy hitters (Mendy from Nice for €15.5M, Mus from CSKA for €19.5M, Slimani from Sporting for €30M, Kapustka 9 m, Amartey 6.6M). Their only major exits were Kante and Kramaric. Ranieri is still at the helm, and he's a top-tier strategist—one of the best out there. They didn't just plummet to the second division overnight. They topped their Champions League group and are playing in the Round of 16 right now! Statistically, they look incredible—and statistics don't lie. Look at that recent 0-3 loss against Chelsea; they actually looked like the better side... Meanwhile, Derby is sitting 7th in the second tier. They barely scraped through to the next round of the FA Cup by beating WBA with these exact stats (!):
Leicester is clearly a tier above WBA, and since their league standing has been a total disaster, everything rests on the cups and the Champions League now. Any talk about "bad vibes" in the club is nonsense—there won't be any drama as long as they're playing in the Champions League. I'm expecting a win, but honestly, I can't even fathom them losing to Derby, especially since Leicester's bench alone is deep enough to be the favorite against them... This Derby side is barely keeping its head above water in the other league; they look inferior in every single matchup, so a victory for the visitors is a lock. In my book, this is the biggest mispricing of the odds we've seen in months. The X2 should be around 1.10, and a straight win for Leicester shouldn't be more than 1.70 max...
2 @ 2.65 betting unit 3/10
I don't know why I can't bring myself to just take the straight win for the favorites. Maybe it's because I'm already satisfied with the X2 so I'm slapping it on all my tickets, or maybe it's just a gut feeling that despite all the dominance, it ends in a 0-0 draw.
Antigua and Barb.-Estonia 2 @1.90 SS (0-1) bet 6/10
Estonia played a friendly against St. Kitts and Nevis three days ago—ended in a 1-1 draw. You can't find much in the stats, but they were likely the better side. Look, regardless of those massive blowout losses against Belgium (8-1), Canada (5-0), or Portugal (7-0), these guys are professionals—period. They just held their own in a 1-1 draw in Sweden, and they’ve beaten Malta and Latvia (who, let's be honest, are a step above these bottom-tier squads). In my book, Antigua is actually weaker than St. Kitts and Nevis—they lost 1-0 to them earlier this year, for instance. As a benchmark, Antigua barely scraped a 2-1 home win against Aruba recently, while St. Kitts and Nevis grabbed a solid 2-0 away win. Plus, it looks like they have a pretty decent stadium setup. Basically, it's highly unlikely the Estonians slip up twice against amateur-level sides—especially when they're facing an even weaker opponent now at a better venue. Taking a shot at 1.90.
Lacazette A.(idg+u)-Lyon 3.95 f2+gives SS (gives + 0-1) bet 5/10
Lacazette has been on fire—15 goals in his last 17 matches. He’s clocked 90 minutes in the last two games, and he should be getting minutes in the Champions League too. Lyon has a very real path to advancing if Juventus pulls this off today—actually, Lyon might even be the favorites here. Their final match is at home against Seville, and all they need is for Seville's +6 handicap to evaporate while Lyon's +1 grows. Essentially, Lyon needs the handicap, and it's way easier to bank that with the LA Galaxy result than trying to absolutely steamroll Seville at home. 😁
Guys, how much faith are we actually putting in Lyon?
The F2 line is sitting at 2.50, which honestly looks like a killer value—especially since LA Galaxy is dealing with some major injuries. Gonçalo, Antolić, and Lešković are out, plus Stojanović is serving a suspension for cards. Lyon has a few missing pieces, but they aren't dealbreakers: 18.11 Rachid Ghezzal M 8 1-0 18.11 Emanuel Mamman D 5 0-0 29.10 Nicolas N'Koulou D 7 0-0 Just two defenders out, so frankly, it doesn't change a thing. 😁
LA Galaxy has been terrible—just straight-up bad—and I think we can all agree on that. I was reading about their match against Istria, and apparently, the ref was basically dragging the game along to favor them, yet they still managed to scrape a 1-1 draw at home.
BUT... Petev is a coach known for setting up a hell of a defense. It’s starting to look more and more to me like LA Galaxy won't even manage a single real scoring chance, and Lyon might only get a handful themselves. So, maybe we're looking at a narrow 1-0?
What do you all think? Is it worth dumping some serious cash on the Lyon handicap?
There’s a total screw-up in the sportsbook—huge mistake here. With a 1:0 handicap, an X2 bet is basically the same thing as just betting on a draw or an away win, but they’ve flipped the handicap to 0:1 instead of keeping it at 1:0. It's completely backwards. Usually, you'd see Inter Miami at 2.70, but because of this blunder, we can grab them at 6.00—which is the exact same value as the double chance. There is massive value sitting right here if you aren't blind.
Look, there are definitely issues here, but let's be real—this isn't Atletico Madrid, so they don't have that legendary, hyper-focused defense everyone keeps talking about. lol. I think Hajduk Split is going to bury these guys by at least two goals, though honestly? I’m expecting three...
I'm sticking with the f2 bet. Even if Hajduk Split ends up conceding a goal, I still think we're walking away with the win.
Look, Honvéd is a seriously tough squad to deal with on their own turf—they almost never lose at home. Last season, they only dropped four games at home, and even then, all four were narrow misses—just 0-1 or 1-2. They haven't lost to Ferencvaros lately, though they did stumble against Újpest—but wait, they just went out and crushed Újpest on the road 2-0 a few days ago. That tells me everything you need to know: they aren't getting any weaker this season; if anything, they’re looking even sharper. The real kicker here? Ferencvaros is currently grinding through Champions League qualifying. Playing 120 minutes of high-stakes soccer is going to absolutely wreck them—especially since they have to turn around and face Honvéd this Saturday. We're still in that messy part of the season where nobody's physical conditioning is at its peak yet. Expect those odds to dip tomorrow as people catch on.
21.7 20.30 Los Angeles Dodgers-Atlanta Braves 2.70 f +2
I’m calling this one a gift, just like every single year. It was the first away game of the season for the Dodgers, and they looked absolutely pathetic—but honestly, those Americans were even worse. They conceded two goals thanks to two incredibly stupid defensive blunders, but it didn't matter—they bounced back, scored twice in the second half, and were clearly the better side throughout the match. Look at the stats: 16 shots to 9, and 11 corners to 1 for the Dodgers. Deep in the heart of America, without Sušić and Kalinić (one of them is partly to blame for the goal, plus Stipica is probably three times worse than Kalinić), you still have two of the best players alongside Vlašić. Without Sušić, it was painfully obvious there was nobody to actually lead the team—no one to pass to, no one to hold onto the ball, and no one to drive the play when needed. Ohandza is back after an 11-month hiatus, and after being on for just three minutes in the second half, he already found the back of the net. He’s clearly not at 90-minute fitness yet, but he’ll likely start from the opening whistle and play at least until the 60th minute at our home stadium... in those 60 minutes, I expect him to bag at least one more goal. The guy is an absolute beast. Historically, the Dodgers play miserably in the 2nd or 3rd qualifying rounds while traveling to places like Georgia, Kazakhstan, or America, only to come home to a packed stadium and absolutely demolish the opponent. And predictably, the "experts" always show up to claim we're doomed because they watched this one single game and think the Dodgers are hopeless. This is at least a 3:0 win—it's a total handout from the bookies. Two years ago, they lost 4:2 to Karagandy but won 3:0 at home, and it could have been much higher. Last year, they lost 3:2 away to Kopra but won 4:1 at home, and again, it could have been more.
He didn't play in the first leg against City, but an article dropped the very next day claiming Cristiano said he’d only show up if it was a Champions League final—basically. He sat out the following league match too, most likely just a precaution. I'm trying to tie this into some tennis action, so I really don't want to be stuck waiting until 8:00 PM just to see the starting lineups.
Anyway, my gut says Real Madrid is going to toy with City today—looking at something like a 3-0 win. Even in Manchester, they dominated every single stat: possession, shots, corners, offsides—and that was without Cristiano Ronaldo! I expect them to look even more convincing tonight. It should be an easy win because, aside from that match against PSG, City has been tripping up against top-tier clubs all season. Plus, Real usually plays pretty mediocre away games in the Champions League, so playing at home? It'll be a total masterclass—pure football magic.
Cheick Tiote and Steven Dummett wouldn't even touch the starting XI—and don't get me started on Ivan Toney, who hasn't even played a single minute for Newcastle United! 🤣
The only absence that actually matters is José Collocini. Haidar and Obertan? They aren't even close to being starters. Honestly, if you're looking at those "sidelined" lists on Soccerway, you're looking at a completely unreliable piece of junk. For instance, Mbemba is on that list, yet the guy is practically a permanent fixture in the starting lineup.
Look, I’m sticking to my guns here: after 90 minutes, Newcastle United is going to have more shots on goal, more corners, higher possession, and fewer fouls.
Newcastle United doesn't have any major absences to worry about. Every single player who suited up against Leicester is available today—the other injuries are old news and honestly don't matter much at this stage. I also forgot to mention that Newcastle United has always been an absolute powerhouse at home, even back under the previous manager. Only Liverpool FC and Everton FC managed to outclass them; against everyone else—United, West Ham, Leicester... you name it—Newcastle United dominated. I’m dead certain they’ll handle Sunderland AFC just fine, regardless of the fact that it's a massive local derby. 🙂
Rafael Benítez took over at Newcastle United just last game. Look, I’m not saying he’s some kind of tactical god—he’s got his flaws—but let’s be real, he’s a heavyweight coach who actually knows his way around the Premier League. Even in their last outing, Newcastle looked the better side on the road against Leicester City—and let's face it, hardly anyone looks good playing them away from home. They lost, sure, but they were the better team. I'm giving that credit to Benítez. Now they’re back on home turf after a full week of soaking up his tactical ideas. Sunderland isn't a pushover—they can hold their own against anyone if things click—but most of the time, they struggle on the road, and against top-tier teams? They get absolutely shredded (that 2-2 draw against Liverpool FC was a total fluke). I’m calling it now: the stats are going to heavily favor Newcastle United today. Whether that translates into three points remains to be seen—but honestly, it should.
20:30 Luis Suárez (idg+u)-Sevilla FC-Celta Vigo 2+daje @21,0
The odds here are massive—seriously, it's worth a shot if you're looking for a little upset potential. Sevilla might be the stronger side on paper, but don't sleep on Celta Vigo. They actually went out and beat Atletico Madrid away in the cup last week to move on! They’ve clearly been prioritizing this cup run—they played a rotated squad in the league both before the Atletico match and leading up to this one. Luis Suárez is their top scorer, and hey, it’s a semifinal—anything can happen when the ball is round.
Cup action again. AEK cruised to a 4-1 win in the first leg, so they probably won't be running themselves ragged this time since they've basically punched their ticket to the next round—expect a second string lineup. On the flip side, Hercules hasn't conceded a single goal in their last seven home games. They are tough to break down at home; they've only dropped two matches by a 0-1 scoreline since the season started, and they haven't lost a home game since then.
OlympPir(rgzb2,5)-Arsenal 2+ Over @ 3.20 (watch those lineups carefully)
I don't see Arsenal walking away with a 0-1 or 1-2 win here. We need to be looking at a 3-2, a 4-3, or some kind of handicap play. Honestly—if it’s sitting at 1-1 or maybe 0-1 around the 70th minute—the keeper is probably going to start playing like a midfielder, stepping up to the halfway line and throwing an extra attacker into the mix. In other words: total all-out attack. It’s going to be a gritty match, but I think Arsenal can pull it off. Regardless, if they're trailing 0-1, they'll push so hard that they'll either concede on a counter or throw everyone forward to level it—so betting on just 2 goals at 2.20 is a total waste of time.
The massive red flag for Arsenal is this injury list: Sanchez, Walcott, Cazorla, Arteta, Koscielny, Coquelin—not to mention Welbeck, Rosicky, and Wilshere are out long-term. If Sanchez, Walcott, and Cazorla are actually sidelined, I'm telling you, Arsenal's chances drop through the floor.
Word on the street is Kalinić holds some kind of record for getting fouled most in the Europa League—I actually saw a photo on Facebook showing his legs absolutely covered in bruises from all the hits he takes. Honestly, there’s no guarantee Kalinić plays the full 90 minutes today; he’ll probably just come on around the 70th minute, or if he starts, he might get subbed off by the 46th or 60th. They’re playing away against Sassuolo, and I’m smelling a slip-up from Fiorentina—definitely expecting an under here. So, in my opinion, at most one goal for Fiorentina, and it almost certainly won't be coming from Kalinić.
8:00 PM Islam Slimani (idg+u)-Sporting CP-Benfica f2+scores @ 2.05
Sporting is being led by Jesus, the guy who coached Benfica for six years right up until last season when they took the title. Anyway, Sporting is currently sitting in first. Slimani is their top scorer, but he didn't start in the last Europa League match because he had just played a brutal 120-minute cup game against Benfica—a game where they actually knocked Benfica out thanks to his goal in the 114th minute. The manager rested him despite how important the match was, so he only came on in the 71st minute for about 20 minutes of play. Today, he’s starting from the kickoff, and I’m expecting 2-3 goals from Sporting, which means one should definitely be his.
9:00 PM SSC Napoli (-2+)-Inter Milan under @ 3.20
The odds on Napoli are sitting at 1.80. Look, Inter is clearly the weaker side here, but they’re sitting in first place and are managed by Roberto Mancini. They aren't going to risk a draw and lose their grip on the top of the table. I’m betting Mancini will set up a super defensive lineup, making this a really gritty, tough match. We could easily see a 0-0, or maybe just a 1-0 for one side. Inter is actually dead last in the league for goal average, averaging only 1.77 per game.
Arsenal is missing a few guys, but honestly, Dinamo is shorthanded too. Wenger absolutely needs this win if he wants any chance at moving into the next round. On top of that, they’ll need Olympiacos to slip up in Munich AND for Arsenal to pull off a two-goal victory in Greece. It's a tall order—but hey, nothing's impossible.
If they manage to secure a goal advantage today (and they will, because Bayern will basically hand it to them), then all they need is a one-goal margin if it ends 3:2 or something similar. They completely dominated the first leg, and by then, Ramsey, Walcott, and Oxlade-Chamberlain should be back in the lineup.
Olivier Giroud (idg+u)-Arsenal-Dinamo Chicago f2+ @2.20 /Arsenal(h0:3)-Dinamo Chicago 1 @4.50, Arsenal(h0:4)-Dinamo Chicago 1 @ 9.00
I wouldn't pass up an extra 0.6 in odds if I were you. Giroud is definitely playing the full 90 because they don't have anyone else upfront. He missed two massive sitters in the first game, and he’s definitely looking to make up for it—especially since his mistakes cost the team a red card. He’s in great form, though; scored in 8 of his last 10 matches. Arsenal is actually stronger than they were in the first match, bringing back Bellerin, Nacho Monreal, Giroud 😁 and Flamini (Arteta played the worst game of his life in the first leg and ended up being a man down for Arsenal). Despite being away, Arsenal had more shots on target, more corners, and 55% possession in the first game. Meanwhile, Dinamo is weakened without their two best players from the first leg, Pivarić and Adem. Plus, Eduardo has proven he's a total liability lately, which probably shook the confidence of his center-backs too. The most important thing? Arsenal went into the first game underestimating them, but this time, they're dead set on this. Expect a blowout.
FC Barcelona vs AS Roma +2 1.90
Roma has absences, they play terribly on the road, and their defense is about as solid as Swiss cheese. Barcelona, on the other hand, looks lethal after what we saw over the weekend; everyone is locked in. In the first match, which ended 1:1 in Italy, the shots on target were 1-12. Today, I’m expecting at least another 12-1 barrage (maybe even over 20), but this time with at least 3 goals, if not more. Even though a draw is enough for them to take first place, I doubt anyone is thinking that way—you've got the odds, the win bonuses, the bragging rights for fans and players... it's all on the table.
It’s honestly so obvious—we’re looking at these overrated national teams that boast massive attacking lineups but have absolutely nothing when it comes to defense. Look, this was just a friendly match; there’s zero reason to sit back, play defensive, or get overly physical. It’s supposed to be about testing the offense! Just look at the recent track records: the last four games for the Americans were 4:2, 2:1, 2:2, and a total blowout 8:1. Meanwhile, the last four for the Germans went 4:1, 2:3, 0:2, 1:2, and 2:1. The numbers don't lie—these teams are all gas and no brakes.
Slovakia vs Iceland at 1.95 odds—I'm calling it now.
It’s the exact same pattern—those last two Slovakia matches ended 3:2, and just a few days ago they were sitting at a 4:1 win in Slovakia, just like today. Iceland looks to have a bit more bite in their defense this year, but then again, they just played Poland a couple of days ago and it ended 4:2.
Austria vs. Switzerland at 1.85—it’s gotta be them.
It’s the same old story with friendlies—total unpredictability. Looking at the recent stats, Austria's last three outings were 1:4, 2:3, and 3:0. They're playing at home this time, so I’m practically counting on them to find the back of the net—it feels like a lock. On the other hand, you've got the Swiss, who had a wild 3:2 result against Slovakia in their last friendly. Their attack looks pretty decent with guys like Shaqiri, Kasami, Stocker, Inler, and Seferovic leading the charge.
Daniel Cooper40 said:Since Russia is hosting the Euros, every single benchwarmer is going to be desperate to prove themselves just to snag a spot on the roster.
Statistically speaking—looking at possession, shots on target, corners and all that—Celta Vigo actually outplayed Real Madrid at home. Sure, Real (specifically Cristiano Ronaldo) managed to capitalize on their chances to pull off a 1:3 win, but let's be real: Celta played a massive chunk of that match with one less player, which usually absolutely wrecks your stats. Now, Valencia is facing this match with only three days of recovery after their Champions League away trip, and honestly, that’s a huge weight on them—especially since they fielded their full starting eleven just to end up losing 1:0. Celta is looking seriously strong this season; they don't have any major absences and they're playing on home turf. Meanwhile, Valencia isn't exactly firing on all cylinders right now—they've got some injuries and they're definitely feeling the fatigue. The odds have already dropped from 2.00, too.
I’m taking this slightly under the average, but regardless, the odds are solid. Even though their last two results were a 0:1 and a 1:1, I’m still expecting a total goal fest this season. I watched Waregem in the Europa League qualifiers, and man, they play such an aggressive, attacking style—they are absolute over bettors. They’re sitting at the top of the Belgian league with a 3.5 goal average per game, while the home side is averaging around 3.1. Plus, since they failed to score in their last match, they’ll be extra motivated today to fix that recent offensive slump. Looking at the numbers, Waregem's last three away games were 3:4, 3:0, and 2:3, while their recent home matches have been 2:2, 2:1, and 2:2, 2:1. Pure chaos.
20:30 Hannover 96/odg-Hertha BSC @ 1.85 SS
Ibišević is back for Hertha BSC after serving his suspension. Now, head-to-head stats don't really mean much here—not that I care much about them anyway—because it’s a new season, new squads, new managers, and totally different playing styles. Hertha hasn't failed to score in their last five away trips, except for that one against VfL Wolfsburg (and they actually had plenty of chances there). Hannover has hit the "over 2.5 goals" mark in their last three games, and playing at home, they almost always find the net—they even managed to bag two against Dortmund! They haven't failed to score in five games, excluding that defensive grind against Bayer Leverkusen. I'm certain they'll score, but their defense is pretty leaky too, so I think Ibišević, who's working his way back into form, will likely find his way to a goal or two.
I've been obsessing over this all day. I honestly don't get these odds—they make zero sense. In my book, this should be sitting around 2.00. Malmo is basically a second-tier squad. Look at their last match played in Sweden; Shakhtar was clearly the better side—more possession, more shots on goal, more corners, everything—yet they still walked away with a 1:0 loss. They’re sitting at 0-0-3 right now, which they absolutely don't deserve. They actually dominated against PSG at home and still lost 3:0, and then that 4:0 loss away to Real Madrid? Everyone agreed that scoreline was a total farce, especially with those massive officiating errors going against Shakhtar. Then you have Malmo—they are the definition of "home vs. away" inconsistency. Just look at their history: one minute it's a 1:5 thrashing against Dinamo, the next it's a 3:0 win in Sweden; then they lose 0:2 to Salzburg and win 3:0 both times over the last two seasons. They're a team used to playing in front of 5,000 or 6,000 people in Sweden, not facing a wall of 55,000 Shakhtar fans. Teixeira is absolutely tearing it up lately, though—he's bagged 18 goals in just 12 domestic league matches. He hasn't scored in his last ten, but let's be real: that's only because he was playing Real Madrid, PSG, and now Malmo. This is one of those classic games where Shakhtar rolls at home, wins 5:1, and Teixeira bags two of them. Plus, he's on penalties. These odds are ridiculously inflated; I'm looking at a realistic 3:0 or maybe a 3:1 win for Shakhtar. Teixeira accounts for over 50% of their goals, so I'm betting he finds the net again today...
