Grace Jones86 said:I just don't see this "bloc division" you're talking about.
In what sense?
Sure, China is trading with Russia, but they are far more interdependent with the West and the rest of the world where the West calls the shots.
Therefore, China is clearly and most neatly a part of the Western bloc in every meaningful way.
China dies the day the West decides it's over... no armed conflict required. They’d face famine on par with the darkest days under Mao Zedong. And they are terrified of that... because today, that means a bloody, brutal civil war where the people would likely tear the Party and its local officials apart like rabbits. The public would skin them alive. 😁 And then they'd turn on each other.
Economically speaking, that bloc simply does not exist.
btw...given all this, it was obvious that Putin definitely doesn't have a green light from China, or even India, for an attack under point 1) or any kind of escalation.
Regardless of how much Putin and Xi were grumbling back in February at the Olympics... acting unified and giving that "green light."
This whole thing looks more like a private madhouse in Moscow that actually has nothing to do with real geopolitics.
Geopolitically, this entire narrative is completely senseless and impossible from the moment they entered Ukraine.
(And honestly, how Russia's entry into Crimea in 2014 went so smoothly in the West remains a massive mystery to me.)
From the moment the war started, I knew there wasn't a shred of geopolitical math or logic here. This is pure insanity. That's why I believe the whole saga, from start to finish, is extremely nuclear—dangerous and psychotic.
BUT... China knew that too. And likely so they wouldn't look like cowards who value their own comfort too much,😁 they played along, pretending the possibility of nuclear escalation or a global economic mega-crisis didn't bother them.
That's why I assume a very clear line is being drawn behind the scenes (between China and the US) regarding exactly what Ukraine can and may do, and where China's red line for Moscow lies. It was probably defined from the jump. It would be unprofessional for China not to have done so. In fact, it's impossible they didn't... China doesn't have the luxury of granting Moscow freedom.