Soccer Betting Tips & Discussion
in Betting Forum ·
Does anyone actually find an offer for the LP winner at any local sportsbook besides SuperSport?
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Robin Davis4 › Posts
Posts by Robin Davis4
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Singapore GP (Marina Bay Street Circuit) - 09/22/2013
in Formula 1 ·
I just hope Ferrari doesn't mess around with their whole "number one driver" dynamic again—honestly, I'm hoping they finally give that top spot to the right person starting next season. Alonso showed he can still be pretty useful when it comes to staying glued to the back of a Force India
Soccer Betting Tips & Discussion
in Betting Forum ·
James Taylor3 said:Pacos Ferreira - Estoril 1 @ 2.03 Pinnacle 7/10
You can grab that at 2.10 over at DraftKings
NBA Betting: Vol. 2
in Betting Forum ·
rapidhound19 said:Man, Pinnacle just absolutely rinsed me in seconds... I put down a bet on Oklahoma vs Memphis over 194.5 points and Chicago over 93.5, and it shows the ticket as paid... then five minutes later I realize they didn't take anything, there's no record of the ticket, so I place it again and now it just duplicates the bet—so now I've got two identical ones sitting there. 🙂🙂
Just shoot them an email to get it voided; maybe beg them on your knees or something.
Then go check the scores. 😂
Today I’m watching the Denver margin for total points; if it stays under 99–101, I think playing an over might actually make sense. Miami looks pretty porous lately—they seem to defend opponent drives more with their eyes than actual effort, I guess. Wade is questionable with an injury, LeBron is being careful about saving energy for offense, and last night Chalmers was basically their guy with all the personal grit. They aren't nearly as aggressive as they were last year... Denver seems to have consolidated things though; they put together four wins before hitting a wall away at the Suns last time. That should be enough motivation to keep their momentum going at home, which I hope translates to scoring, especially since they have those two tough road trips coming up against the Spurs and the Grizzlies. So far at home, they’ve dropped 109 and 104, and they even put up 116 away at Miami, losing by just one shot. Hopefully, if they stick to that run-and-gun style and catch a little luck with their shooting percentage, they can see a real opening. A good reality check would be looking at how Memphis and the Clippers basically trampled them without much trouble.
If I'm off on the margin prediction, I'll probably need to rethink everything and look at other matchups. Just speaking as a fan here, but the outright win for Denver is definitely worth a look.
Rondo tweaked his knee midway through the third tonight and didn't go back in.
Rivers said he "had no idea" whether Rondo would play Thursday in Brooklyn.
So, just keep that in mind...
And finally, the two most convincing teams so far—those undefeated Knicks playing the Spurs. Honestly, you could probably make some money just picking the winners if you can nail all three; I'd much rather miss on an outright winner than poke my finger into the mess of these over/under bets. 😁 (though that Indiana game from the other night was enough to make me lose whatever hair I have left.)
NBA Betting: Vol. 2
in Betting Forum ·
This is probably the best advice you’ll ever get regarding the NBA if you want to skip a day
A qualitative and quantitative scarcity of matchups that leads to forcing bets
With that in mind, here is what I would force today:
Portland Trail Blazers/LA Clippers (101.5) - more
The LA Clippers, coming off two unexpected back-to-back losses yesterday, just gave up 106 points to an actually decent San Antonio Spurs team. They give up a lot, but they also tend to grind through things—they've allowed 101 to the Memphis Grizzlies, 105 to the LA Lakers, 110 in a loss to the Golden State Warriors, 101 to the Cleveland Cavaliers, and then those 106 to the Spurs last night. So, the scoring stays in that range. If the margin were 103.5, I might be leaning toward the over. After giving up 106 in two games, Portland played an unexpectedly high-scoring game against the Houston Rockets; if that had been their last game, I’d feel way less confident about this, but they followed that up by giving up 114 to the Dallas Mavericks.
The argument against it would definitely be that in recent head-to-head matchups involving Portland, the Clippers haven't cleared this margin—if I counted correctly using some stats site, it's been 14-4 in favor of the under 101.5 over the last 8 years for the LA Clippers
Deng L (-18.5+) - Chicago Bulls less
That principle is pretty tricky to nail down. For the first three, it was under 17.5—including one where it stayed convincingly in single digits—only for that massive over against the Orlando Magic the night before last to bump the margin up by half a basket. I don't know, it's purely a gut feeling that his shot won't fall against Oklahoma City and he won't find many open looks. I'm also hoping he doesn't get to the free-throw line more than 2-4 times. A few fouls always help when playing the under, and I think they'll struggle defensively against the OKC Thunder, who are finally finding some rhythm; playing defense against their lineup isn't easy, whether it's the starters or the rotation. That's why I see a chance they might just throw in the towel on the bench a little earlier than usual.
I'd agree with the previous suggestion for Carlos Boozer 14.5 - over, he's slightly more offensively engaged in home games, whereas I'd describe his defensive effort as somewhat phlegmatic—which, honestly, helps with those foul trouble issues players in his position often run into. He'll grab a rebound here and there or just let a player quietly lay it in or dunk it when he sees his window has passed instead of risking a foul. Joakim Noah is much more vital under their basket.
I'll take these three matchups at 2/3; missing one returns the stake, and hitting all three is roughly stake * 3
A qualitative and quantitative scarcity of matchups that leads to forcing bets
With that in mind, here is what I would force today:
Portland Trail Blazers/LA Clippers (101.5) - more
The LA Clippers, coming off two unexpected back-to-back losses yesterday, just gave up 106 points to an actually decent San Antonio Spurs team. They give up a lot, but they also tend to grind through things—they've allowed 101 to the Memphis Grizzlies, 105 to the LA Lakers, 110 in a loss to the Golden State Warriors, 101 to the Cleveland Cavaliers, and then those 106 to the Spurs last night. So, the scoring stays in that range. If the margin were 103.5, I might be leaning toward the over. After giving up 106 in two games, Portland played an unexpectedly high-scoring game against the Houston Rockets; if that had been their last game, I’d feel way less confident about this, but they followed that up by giving up 114 to the Dallas Mavericks.
The argument against it would definitely be that in recent head-to-head matchups involving Portland, the Clippers haven't cleared this margin—if I counted correctly using some stats site, it's been 14-4 in favor of the under 101.5 over the last 8 years for the LA Clippers
Deng L (-18.5+) - Chicago Bulls less
That principle is pretty tricky to nail down. For the first three, it was under 17.5—including one where it stayed convincingly in single digits—only for that massive over against the Orlando Magic the night before last to bump the margin up by half a basket. I don't know, it's purely a gut feeling that his shot won't fall against Oklahoma City and he won't find many open looks. I'm also hoping he doesn't get to the free-throw line more than 2-4 times. A few fouls always help when playing the under, and I think they'll struggle defensively against the OKC Thunder, who are finally finding some rhythm; playing defense against their lineup isn't easy, whether it's the starters or the rotation. That's why I see a chance they might just throw in the towel on the bench a little earlier than usual.
I'd agree with the previous suggestion for Carlos Boozer 14.5 - over, he's slightly more offensively engaged in home games, whereas I'd describe his defensive effort as somewhat phlegmatic—which, honestly, helps with those foul trouble issues players in his position often run into. He'll grab a rebound here and there or just let a player quietly lay it in or dunk it when he sees his window has passed instead of risking a foul. Joakim Noah is much more vital under their basket.
I'll take these three matchups at 2/3; missing one returns the stake, and hitting all three is roughly stake * 3
NBA Betting: Part 2
in Betting Forum ·
I’m feeling pretty good about taking the over on Denver at 103.5 today
They had a rough start to the season—I guess you could partially justify it since those three losses all came on the road—but they looked a bit scattered in their last game against the Miami Heat, though they did manage to pull it out in the end.
I see that as an extra little nudge for them to show up for their first home game in great shape, because despite looking a bit worn down, they still haven't tasted a win yet. As for the Detroit Pistons, they honestly look like one of the five worst teams in the league based on how this season started.
With a healthy Anderson Faried, Denver looks like they can put up about 10 more points than they do without him. To me, over the last two seasons, they've seemed like a pretty disorganized squad; it doesn't seem like their goal is to control the offense during those 24 seconds, but rather just dump the ball in as fast as possible and hope for the best against whatever the opponent throws at them.
Faried has proven he can be great when he's locked in for a game, and Jaونا McGee can probably chip in his usual amount alongside Nenê. Then there's Ty Lawson, who if he hits a couple of early shots or drives to the rim, could easily hit his over. I wouldn't be surprised if he starts racking up some assists, too. Andre Iguodala is just as vital for defense, transition, and the offense. I expect them to come out playing at their current peak from the jump and maybe even hit 60+ points by halftime, much like what the LA Lakers did to them.
I might combine this with Valencia in the EuroCup. They're a solid team, really well-coached, and in many ways, they hold their own against Real Madrid and FC Barcelona in their league. I could see them finishing in the top 4 again and making a real run for the title, so maybe the EuroCup provides enough motivation for them to try and go all the way...
1.85 x 1.20 should bring in a nice little profit once the MT settles.
They had a rough start to the season—I guess you could partially justify it since those three losses all came on the road—but they looked a bit scattered in their last game against the Miami Heat, though they did manage to pull it out in the end.
I see that as an extra little nudge for them to show up for their first home game in great shape, because despite looking a bit worn down, they still haven't tasted a win yet. As for the Detroit Pistons, they honestly look like one of the five worst teams in the league based on how this season started.
With a healthy Anderson Faried, Denver looks like they can put up about 10 more points than they do without him. To me, over the last two seasons, they've seemed like a pretty disorganized squad; it doesn't seem like their goal is to control the offense during those 24 seconds, but rather just dump the ball in as fast as possible and hope for the best against whatever the opponent throws at them.
Faried has proven he can be great when he's locked in for a game, and Jaونا McGee can probably chip in his usual amount alongside Nenê. Then there's Ty Lawson, who if he hits a couple of early shots or drives to the rim, could easily hit his over. I wouldn't be surprised if he starts racking up some assists, too. Andre Iguodala is just as vital for defense, transition, and the offense. I expect them to come out playing at their current peak from the jump and maybe even hit 60+ points by halftime, much like what the LA Lakers did to them.
I might combine this with Valencia in the EuroCup. They're a solid team, really well-coached, and in many ways, they hold their own against Real Madrid and FC Barcelona in their league. I could see them finishing in the top 4 again and making a real run for the title, so maybe the EuroCup provides enough motivation for them to try and go all the way...
1.85 x 1.20 should bring in a nice little profit once the MT settles.
Soccer Betting
in Betting Forum ·
Maribor - Dinamo x2 1.50 (1.51 @stanley)
The only way I can justify odds looking this balanced is because it's a home game, though honestly, even then, Dinamo seems like the slight favorite to just take all three points. Maribor looked decent against the Sheriff, I guess, but they weren't quite on the same level as Ludogorets; meanwhile, Dinamo managed to escape both those teams with their heads intact—even if their actual play was pretty terrible. Today, the pressure might be a little less suffocating since they’re sitting on a good result rather than having to chase one for the future. I really don't expect them to put in a performance as disastrous as the one we saw in Razgrad or Moldova—not at a team or individual level, anyway. In that first match, the Canadians weren't exactly bad, but neither side was anywhere near playing perfect football. Still, Maribor doesn't have much room to actually step things up, whereas Dinamo has a bit more potential... though, using results as a metric after that first away leg, I'm expecting a win today just to help bump up the odds for later.
QPR - Walsall - 1 1.35 (@SS)
There's just too much money riding on the home side not to see them show something meaningful in the Carling Cup over the next week or two. You'll probably see some of QPR's bench players out there, but even those guys should be motivated—I mean, they've got City coming up soon, so they might treat this cup match as a chance to prove themselves to the manager and stay in the rotation for league play. Walsall is a third-tier side that started the season with a 1-1-1 record through the first three rounds, and they weren't exactly convincing in the cup prelims with that 1-0 win. Last year, they were barely staying above the relegation zone in the third tier—Ligue 1 style thinking, I suppose.
uK: 2.025, stake around 6/10
The only way I can justify odds looking this balanced is because it's a home game, though honestly, even then, Dinamo seems like the slight favorite to just take all three points. Maribor looked decent against the Sheriff, I guess, but they weren't quite on the same level as Ludogorets; meanwhile, Dinamo managed to escape both those teams with their heads intact—even if their actual play was pretty terrible. Today, the pressure might be a little less suffocating since they’re sitting on a good result rather than having to chase one for the future. I really don't expect them to put in a performance as disastrous as the one we saw in Razgrad or Moldova—not at a team or individual level, anyway. In that first match, the Canadians weren't exactly bad, but neither side was anywhere near playing perfect football. Still, Maribor doesn't have much room to actually step things up, whereas Dinamo has a bit more potential... though, using results as a metric after that first away leg, I'm expecting a win today just to help bump up the odds for later.
QPR - Walsall - 1 1.35 (@SS)
There's just too much money riding on the home side not to see them show something meaningful in the Carling Cup over the next week or two. You'll probably see some of QPR's bench players out there, but even those guys should be motivated—I mean, they've got City coming up soon, so they might treat this cup match as a chance to prove themselves to the manager and stay in the rotation for league play. Walsall is a third-tier side that started the season with a 1-1-1 record through the first three rounds, and they weren't exactly convincing in the cup prelims with that 1-0 win. Last year, they were barely staying above the relegation zone in the third tier—Ligue 1 style thinking, I suppose.
uK: 2.025, stake around 6/10