After yesterday's total flop against Mexico—which I clearly overestimated—I’m looking to get back on the winning track.
Latvia vs. Faroe Islands: Under 2.5 goals @1.61 (BET365) 5/10 (0-2)Latvia heads into this match missing two massive pieces of their puzzle: their main striker Rudnevs (Cologne) and Cauna (CSKA Moscow), both of whom are starters. You could really feel the impact of those absences during their first qualifier against Andorra. In that opening game, they played a pretty lackluster first half with almost zero scoring opportunities, though they did eventually capitalize on an Andorran defensive error to scrape out a 0-1 win. Honestly, Latvia's style of play has been quite poor lately; they rely heavily on long balls forward and tend to move very slowly. They are much more dangerous when playing on the counter or sitting deep, thanks to having two lightning-fast wingers in Sabal and Ikanuieks. Back during the last Euro qualifiers, they managed to grind out points away at Iceland, Turkey, and the Czech Republic, while playing to a 0-0 draw against Kazakhstan, who might actually be a slightly tougher matchup than today's opponent.
The Faroe Islands are a side that plays extremely tight, defensive football and relies heavily on set pieces. While they sit a tier above teams like San Marino, Andorra, or Gibraltar, and have shown they can pull off decent results and score on the road, they aren't going to rush things here. They’ll likely park the bus, knowing a single point is enough, and just wait for a counter-attack. This forces Latvia to open up and attack, which isn't exactly their forte. Given how these two clash, I’m expecting a gritty, low-scoring affair—likely a 0-0 or a narrow 1-0 for Latvia.
Portugal vs. Andorra: Under 5.5 goals @1.57 (BET365) 6/10 (6-0) The Portuguese national team is heading into this one without several key players, including Nani, Adrien Silva, Cedric (though he might start on the bench), and Ricardo Carvalho. To be honest, the odds for this specific bet caught me off guard; even though Andorra is essentially at the bottom of the European football hierarchy, Portugal rarely blows past this kind of goal limit. Most of the time, they lose away from home by 2, 3, or 4 goals, and the last time they actually cleared this threshold was a 6-0 loss to Belgium. Portugal isn't the type of squad that relentlessly grinds down opponents like Germany does; they usually settle down after scoring two or three goals against lower-tier sides. If I recall correctly, the only times they've crossed this line were that wild 3-3 thriller against Canada in Euro 2016 and a 6-2 win against Canada in the Euro 2012 qualifiers. Looking at the stats, it holds up—aside from that Canada game, the only other time they hit a high number was a friendly where they beat Estonia 7-0. I think this is a great value pick, and I expect a final score somewhere around 3-0 or 4-0 for Portugal.
-2.95