Posts by brightheron64

silentnomad7 said:They'll just bring in ships to deliver the gas. Sure, it’ll cost more, but it should be enough to keep the lights on for now...

Everything looks perfect on paper when you're planning ahead, but then shit happens—like that explosion at the fifth largest LNG terminal in the States🕺

Double blow to the US gas supplies sparks price surge
JUNE 14 2022

Europe’s gas supplies suffered a double blow on Tuesday after a major US liquefied natural gas export terminal said it would be offline for at least three months and Russia said it would cut flows through a key route to Germany.

Freeport LNG, which accounts for about a fifth of US LNG exports and about 10 per cent of Europe’s imports this year, said on Tuesday that repairs following an explosion at its plant last week could take until the end of the year, with only partial activity set to resume after 90 days. Last Week Freeport Had indicated The terminal would resume Operations in early July.
https://www.ft.com/content/8e0c4aa6-...f-a1ff644d59d6

A major natural gas terminal in Texas goes offline because of an explosion
https://www.npr.org/2022/06/10/11041...fline-shutdown



I don't really feel like digging through the internet right now, but I have a feeling that, as of this moment, the Australians are the only ones with free, unbooked capacity available... The only catch is they're all the way on the other side of the world, so that's going to make things a little more expensive than we'd like...

urbanotter said:Even in the States, things haven't been easy; inflation there has actually hit double digits at points.

I haven't looked into the specifics lately, but I highly doubt that's the primary reason why Tesla electric vehicles have become so expensive.☕

p.s.
The most tragic part of this whole situation is that the Federal Reserve printing all this money doesn't seem to have the same impact it did just a few months ago,
yet they keep raising interest rates, and I don't think I really need to explain what that implies for the economy.
Just trying to keep us from drifting too far off-topic.

I was watching this massive screen at an American gas station recently, catching some commentary on Biden claiming that Putin is responsible for everything...

And then this guy just shouts out: "on 24 February 2022 inflation rate was 7.4%".

silentnomad7 said:Just switch over the home heating from gas to electric, and suddenly you've freed up all that gas for fertilizer production.

Germany only produces about 3 percent of its own gas needs...

If you could actually pull off a magic trick that saves them from that disaster, you wouldn't just be a wealthy man—you'd be legendary for the rest of human history...

silentnomad7 said:Honestly, look at the Germans—they just flipped the switch on those nuclear plants they had previously decommissioned, treating them like a quick fix for the transition period leading up to 2050.

I hear you. And it’s about way more than just keeping the lights on.

Think about synthetic fertilizers, which require massive amounts of gas to produce; you could literally pull those components right out of thin air. If you use nuclear power to run water electrolysis, you get the hydrogen you need—while letting the oxygen drift back into the atmosphere so we can all keep breathing—and then you just pull the nitrogen from the air, since there's plenty of it everywhere... and just go for it.

Honestly, I'm genuinely surprised it didn't click for them sooner...

Anthony Hill5 said:Everything would be just fine if we simply denied military aid to the Ukrainians and forced them to surrender to the Russians.

The trouble is, now the Swedes have become part of the problem too. We would need to convince them to abandon their precious freedom and wealth to become vassals of Vladimir Mali just so we can enjoy cheaper gasoline and lower inflation—all in the vain hope that the Tsar won't eventually demand permanent Russian territories where at least one Russian can spend his summer vacation relaxing.

You’re twisting my words entirely.

My point was actually about the logic behind international sanctions; if we know the primary targets are energy resources, then it stands to reason that there should be a global consensus on oil pricing—essentially an international agreement on price floors or protections. That way, the sanctions would actually hit Russia where it hurts, rather than punishing both Russia and half the rest of the world at the same time. If we did that, countries like India or Canada wouldn't feel the need to "bend the rules" just to survive, and they might actually find themselves standing alongside us in this cause...

So, I’ll go back to the question I already asked:
How much would Russian oil really be sanctioned if the USA were as "self-sufficient" as Germany, having to import every single drop of necessary gas and oil? It is incredibly easy to play the moralist and act like a righteous crusader when you are practically energy-independent and sitting atop the strongest economy in the world, but what about the fallout? What about the rest of us?...

Right now, the average price per gallon in the USA is $5.004.
Current exchange rate: 1 USD = $2.25
1 US gallon = 3.8 liters

Just give me a fuel price per liter from $3.00 and I won't mention the word "sanctions" ever again.

Jack Hill2 said:Russia might be able to blackmail Germany with gas for another year and a half, but after that, the Germans will let them go under.

They had better strike a deal with the Germans (even if it's under the table) if they plan on having any kind of relationship with Europe at all. If the Germans sink billions into gas from Africa—which they plan to abandon in 20 or 30 years anyway—they won't touch a single drop of Russian fuel in the West for a decade, maybe two...

The EU might face a crisis for two years, while Russia will face it for twenty before they ever win the Germans over again...

Everything would look much brighter if other suppliers were actually showing some solidarity or empathy toward Germany, perhaps even offering energy at Russian prices—or maybe even lower, given the current situation and the noble intentions behind the embargoes...

Inflation in Germany is hitting twice what was originally anticipated
The German economy is expected to grow this year at only half the speed predicted by those who clearly didn't see the writing on the wall back in December; they're looking at just 1.9 percent, whereas the Federal Reserve's projections in December suggested an activity increase of 4.2 percent...

"Our baseline scenario assumes that the war and its fallout won't escalate any further," the Federal Reserve warned...

They also cautioned that if the conflict intensifies and Germany loses access to Russian energy—whether through European embargoes or a sudden Russian shutdown of exports—inflation could skyrocket while the economy takes a massive hit...
In that specific scenario, economic activity could shrink by three percent in 2023, with inflation climbing to around six percent, according to the Federal Reserve's calculations...

Meanwhile, Bloomberg is telling a slightly different story:
The Federal Reserve's outlook, published Friday, shows German inflation averaging 7.1% this year, 4.5% in 2023 and 2.6% in 2024 -- up from 3.6% in 2022 and 2.2% in the other two years earlier.

And as for our fate? Well, wherever Germany goes, we'll likely follow right behind them...

boldtiger7 said:It’s quite simple, really. Ukraine stands as one of the world's premier grain exporters, primarily supplying developing nations. Meanwhile, Russia is a titan in the production of both fertilizer and energy. When you factor in global inflation and the lingering fallout from the pandemic, you get a perfect storm. While wealthy nations might feel the squeeze, they possess the capital to weather the blow; however, for impoverished countries or those heavily reliant on imports, the situation is far more dire.

So, here’s how things have been looking over the last three months, following those several rounds of sanctions...

Aaron Smith, DeLoach Professor of Agricultural Economics We're not Facing...
We're Not Facing a Global Food Crisis...
The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine isn't just a regional struggle; it’s a massive shockwave hitting the global food supply chain. When you consider that Russia accounts for 19 % of The Global wheat export market and Ukraine 9 %, the math becomes pretty terrifying... If we lose access to those 55 million metric tons of wheat and 30 million metric tons of Corn exported from Ukraine and Russia, the ripples will be felt in every grocery aisle from New York to Los Angeles. We might see a significant shift in how farmers approach their fields next season. It's highly likely that Russia and Ukraine May lead farmers in other countries to Plant more wheat and less Corn as they try to hedge against these volatile shortages. This kind of pivot changes everything about agricultural planning and global stability. I was reading some insights regarding the potential impact on our markets, specifically looking at the projections using The Roberts and Schlenker Factor of 7, and it really puts the scale of this potential Global food Crisis into perspective... It’s a heavy realization that the decisions made in Eastern Europe could dictate the price of bread and livestock feed across all of America for years to come...

When you take a step back and look at the big picture, the sheer scale of what’s happening in Eastern Europe is pretty staggering... Russia handles about 11% of the total world wheat production while Ukraine brings in another 3%, but when you actually dive into the export numbers, the impact becomes even more pronounced. Specifically, Russia accounts for 19% of the global wheat export market and Ukraine 9%, which really highlights how much the rest of the world relies on them for stability. On top of that, Ukraine is a massive force in the corn market, making up roughly 14% of global corn exports... It is worth noting, though, that they aren't really major players when it comes to rice or soybeans, which remain those other two heavy hitters in the global agricultural commodity landscape...

Imagine for a moment what might happen if the world suddenly lost access to those 55 million metric tons of wheat and 30 million metric tons of corn typically exported from Ukraine and Russia... When you consider that these figures represent roughly 7.3% of the global wheat supply and 2.6% of the world's corn production, the implications are staggering. The very first domino to fall in this scenario would almost certainly be a massive, immediate spike in global commodity prices...

Perhaps some people found this narrative a bit too easy to swallow because it didn't sound like an absolute disaster, especially since cutting your calorie intake by just 3% actually feels like a pretty healthy move...

If we look at how things are shifting, a drop in wheat exports coming out of Russia and Ukraine could really push farmers in other parts of the world to pivot toward planting more wheat instead of corn... which, in turn, might change what ends up on our dinner plates as people swap out wheat for more rice. If you apply the Roberts and Schlenker factor of 7 to that shift, you’re looking at a roughly 2.2% dip in the total available calorie supply. When you consider that losing those 55 million metric tons of wheat and 30 million metric tons of corn effectively removes a massive chunk of nutrition from the global table, we're talking about a 2.7% reduction in available calories from the four major commodities we all rely on...

P.S....
Speaking of grain prices, I haven't really noticed any significant jump in what I'm paying for beer lately—unless you count those standard seasonal price adjustments we see every year... 😲

Christian Torres3 said:Territorial disputes of the USA
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terr...ublic_of_China

Maybe this will help jog your memory.

It’s honestly quite bizarre—you’ve got the Bomb and a massive military at your disposal, yet you claim to have no ambitions? It’s almost as if all that power is just sitting there, completely useless and purely decorative...😬

Even the most remote tribes deep within the jungles of Papua have some sort of territorial ambition... even if it's just wanting to gobble up their neighbors...

swiftjackal11 said:The US claims to be defending democracy, yet here we are in Ukraine watching one person of faith kill another.

They defend a rigid, medieval kingdom and... what else?

hollowdriver13 said:Look, did I ever say they weren't getting it? Of course they are. My point is that people keep trying to spin this as some massive win for Russian foreign policy.
Honestly, Rosneft has to move that oil somewhere; you can't just stockpile it forever. It’s way easier to just sell it to a subsidiary. It would be pretty eye-opening to see what the growth percentages look like if the Russians weren't selling everything at a discount and if Rosneft didn't happen to own the refineries themselves, right?

Honestly, I don't think it's all about Russian foreign policy at all. Oil is a fundamental necessity, plain and simple. Even if Stalin himself rose from his grave, someone would still be buying Russian oil because the demand exists...

Let’s flip the perspective for a second and imagine if oil was as common as water—would any sane person even bother trading with the Saudis?
Or, looking at it another way, if Americans were "dry" on resources, much like the Germans... do you really think there would ever have been embargos against Iran, Russia, or Venezuela...?

hollowdriver13 said:By the way, Rosneft is basically selling to itself here, since they own Nayar Energy in India, which operates some of the biggest and most modern refineries in the country.

So, the real question is, are Americans actually getting their hands on that oil, or is it all just moving between internal accounts?

Terry Green3 said:Based on the US plan, Venezuela might actually step in to replace Russia as an oil supplier for Europe.
I wonder what the quality of their crude looks like for European refineries?

Does Venezuela have gas too? 🤔

They do.
But we also have to deal with the reality of sanctions, which haven't really been lifted just yet:

US moves to ease a few economic sanctions on Venezuela

Venezuela: The limited changes will allow Chevron Corp to negotiate its licence with the state-owned oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), but not to drill or export any petroleum of Venezuelan origin, two senior US government officials told The Associated Press late Monday. The officials spoke on the condition of anonymity because the formal announcement had not been made.
https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/20...s-on-venezuela

swiftjackal11 said:These Russians are absolute amateurs when it comes to business. If everyone is supposedly so dependent on what they're selling, why on earth were they selling it so cheap? 🤷

Forget about them being amateurs for a second; the real catch is that everyone else has hiked up their oil prices.

The Saudis have announced there should be enough oil to replace what comes from Russia, but I can't imagine anyone is looking to drop their prices anytime soon.
Just look at the landscape—opportunity is everywhere. You've got three major oil giants—Russia, Iran, and Venezuela—all under embargoes, Syria is still caught in war, and Libya has seen its production slashed in half... Why would anyone be foolish enough to just give away oil for next to nothing?

George Robinson43 said:That’s all well and good, but do you realize how massive 26 million barrels actually is? That equates to roughly 1 million tons.
India imports about 230-240 million tons annually, with 80% sourced from the Middle East.
The real issue is how much of that Middle Eastern oil India can actually substitute, since the blends aren't identical. Refineries don't operate like a simple "press button" system where you can instantly swap Malaysian, Arabian, Iranian, Russian, American, Canadian, Nigerian, Venezuelan, or Kazakh crude.

I wonder if one of us two has stumbled on a math error somewhere?

Since a single barrel of oil is 159 liters, and the specific gravity usually sits between 0.82 and 0.94 depending on the grade, we could easily round a barrel to about 130 kg, couldn't we?

So, 26,000,000 x 130 / 1,000 equals 3,380,000—let's just call it 3 million tons to keep things simple.

But honestly, the more significant point is how much their imports spiked in May, hitting 740,000 barrels per day, which is nearly 100,000 tons daily. That means if they're selling at $70 USD, about $50 million is essentially "flowing" from India to Russia every single day, totaling $1.5 billion every month... 😲

At the end of the day, in this era of sanctions, Indians have more than tripled their Russian oil imports (it's currently at 10.6%) and the trend looks like it's still climbing...

analogbear5 said:Look, there are valid arguments on both sides: sanctions are hitting Russia, but they're also successfully pushing back—meaning they've spent the last few years bracing for the impact and pivoting. I think both points are true at the same time.

What isn't true are those extreme takes that go viral online because people love an easy target. Specifically:
- Russia is collapsing under the weight of sanctions!
- Russia is completely immune to sanctions!

From what I've gathered so far, the sanctions are definitely having an effect, but how much damage they'll actually do in the long run? We won't know until we see it. Until then, it’s all just guesswork.

Honestly, it feels like you can't trust anyone's word anymore these days...

Just a few posts back, I mentioned India (citing the BBC). According to the latest from Bloomberg, Indians are being labeled as even more "greedy" than before...

India in Talks to Increase Russian Oil Imports from Rosneft
India has bought more than 40 million barrels of Russian oil between late-February and early-May, which comes to about 20% more than flows for all of 2021, according to Bloomberg calculations based on trade data. Russian oil arrivals into India for May were at 740,000 barrels a day, up from 284,000 barrels in April and 34,000 barrels a year earlier, according to data from Kpler.

Although India’s purchases of Russian crude aren’t illegal or in breach of any sanctions, the country has come under pressure from the Biden administration and EU to stop doing business with Moscow in order to cut off Kremlin’s access to oil revenue and funds. The Asian nation has reiterated that its volume of Russian imports are minuscule as compared to Europe’s purchases, and just a tiny fraction of the country’s total consumption.

Discounted Russian oil has provided some relief to India -- which imports more than 85% of its oil -- just as inflation skyrockets alongside surging prices of everything from food to fuel. The access to cheap crude is already boosting India’s oil imports, which grew almost 16% in April from last year. The share of oil from the Eurasian region, which includes Russia, expanded to 10.6% in April versus 3.3% a year earlier, according to oil ministry data.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/india-in...neft-1.1774979

rowdymaker17 said:Bit by bit, they’ve completely screwed me over. 👍

I am simply waiting for the moment when people can no longer afford to service their loans. I am genuinely curious to see what those warmongering fanatics will eat—those who live off the elderly while constantly egging everyone on toward conflict and measuring who is stronger or better. People should start sending their bills directly to the NATO Secretary General and his office to settle them. They are the ones who created this mess, so they ought to shoulder the financial responsibility.

I suppose everyone just finds their own way to get by...

India wasn't actually importing much Russian oil back in 2021—only about 2%, which comes out to roughly 12 million barrels for the whole year—while about half of their supply was coming from the Middle East. However, looking at just the second quarter of this year, they’ve already locked in 26 million barrels because Russia is offering them oil at $30 below the market rate (and word on the street is it might even be cheaper than that, though nobody wants to speak up publicly about it)...

The Americans aren't exactly thrilled about the situation, but they aren't making too much noise either, mostly because there's this lingering fear that if they push too hard, India might end up turning toward Iran instead...

The Americans are facing a rather fascinating dilemma here:

To put it simply:

At current market rates, our bill for importing oil groups is projected to hit roughly $20 billion for the 2021-22 period. In an ideal scenario, we would shift 100 percent of our energy needs over to Russia, which would secure us a 30 percent discount on the total oil import bill. That kind of move would essentially put $6 billion back in our pockets.

However, upsetting the USA—which I know would drive the IMF absolutely crazy—just to save a few billion dollars could end up costing us much more in the long run, potentially jeopardizing the ability to secure external financing for our current account deficit, which sits at about $17 billion.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1693395/th...deal-prospects

Brenda Murphy3 said:"After what they're calling 'completely legitimate elections'..."🤣

Look, I’m not out here trying to play defense for the USA. God knows they’ve pulled plenty of amoral stunts and gone on all sorts of messy interventions over the years. But seriously, maybe do a little homework before dropping statements like that? No, really—half the stuff you just listed doesn't even qualify as "totally legitimate elections." It’s the same deal as what we're seeing today in places like Russia or Mexico. You can't just throw those terms around without actually knowing what you're talking about.

Look, this thread is specifically about Russia and the sanctions being slapped on them. If you want to go on some long-winded rant about US hypocrisy, then by all means, be my guest... but don't drag that into this specific discussion just to try and justify what the Russians are doing. It’s a total reach. Besides, let's be real—the US position and Putin's Russia aren't even playing the same game. You can't just lump them together like they're two sides of the same coin; it's not even close.

So, did Al Gore and Donald Trump actually lose legitimate elections...? Were you ever at one of those "free rallies" back in the day in America? Out of twelve verified party comrades, go ahead and pick out twelve of them!

Now, come on, try and find me one single shred of evidence to disprove that... 🙏

So please, don't lecture me about being some holy "beacon of democracy" watching over the sanctity of democratic values...

And yeah, what on earth does my comment have to do with the Russians? 🤔

swiftjackal11 said:The US doesn't attack democratic nations. It's always some dictator over there oppressing their own people. Honestly, they should have stepped in sooner.

Poniatowski, Shah, the Pahlavi regime... who was it that installed them all... St. Peter?

I don't want to exaggerate too much here, but here are just a handful of actual democracies that were dismantled (following completely legitimate elections!) by the US side:

The 7 Governments the U.S. Has Overthrown
https://foreignpolicy.com/2013/08/20...as-overthrown/

And don't even get me started on those "preventative" interventions meant to interfere with "free and democratic elections" in various other countries...

wearytrucker22 said:brightheron64 Look, it doesn't matter if a gallon of oil costs $33, what matters is that we need total sanctions against Nazi Russia. We should be blocking every single ship entering Russian ports and cutting off trade with any country that deals with them. It's simple: you're either with us or you're with the Russian Nazis. Make a choice.

Exactly, and it honestly provides me a little bit of comfort knowing that because of this sacrifice, the Saudi royals will finally be able to afford more than just the bare essentials... they might even have enough left over for some butter on their toast next time...

Anthony Hill5 said:The price hike specifically targets July and then again in August.

Regardless of the specifics, it is positive news; once again, American soft power has asserted itself, further cementing the isolation of Russia.

Look at the state of public opinion within Russia. Which nations do they actually consider allies? The answers serve as a brutal testament to the reality of Putin's policies.

Well, I certainly got my hopes up until I took a closer look at what the media was actually reporting...

Here is the latest from the Financial Times:

Financial Times
1 h ·
Even with Saudi Arabia preparing to open the spigots, the import ban on Russian oil announced by Europe means that prices are set to continue their rise.
Riyadh aware it must not 'lose control' of oil prices as energy sanctions hit Moscow ... Don't expect fuel prices to come down anytime soon. 🙂

Anthony Hill5 said:OPEC plus agreed on Thursday to a larger increase in supply Than planned for July and August, representing a staggering 50% surge in production levels.

Specifically, we are looking at an additional 648,000 barrels per day being pumped into the market.

OPEC plus agreed on Thursday to a larger increase in supply Than planned for July and August.

While the White House attempted to frame this sudden spike in output as a monumental diplomatic victory—following months of relentless lobbying directed at the oil giants of the Middle East to alleviate price volatility—is anyone truly naive enough to believe this will lower the cost at the pump? Certainly not. In reality, rather than providing relief to the consumer, the price of oil actually climbed following the summit.

Following their recent videoconference, the coalition announced they would ramp up production by 648,000 barrels a day in July and then again in August, which constitutes an increase of roughly 50 percent compared to the incremental monthly rises established under last year's program. Effectively, what OPEC plus is doing is compressing three months of scheduled increases into a mere two-month window.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/02/b...smid=url-share

Maybe now we can actually hope that gas prices don't jump up another 30 cents this Tuesday like everyone is predicting—though when they asked Marić about it just now, he couldn't give a straight answer...

analogbear5 said:Anyway, back to the topic at hand:
Russia is still pulling in an average of $800 million a day. A huge chunk of that is just thanks to prices spiking on the market. Bloomberg

The more we hear about them and dive into the details, the less sense this whole sanctions effectiveness thing makes to me... 🤷

The US is prepared to formally approve the transport and insurance for Russian grain and fertilizer exports
The US is ready to issue written permits to carriers and insurers to help smooth out the export of Russian grain and fertilizer, according to statements made on Tuesday by the US Ambassador to the United Nations, Linda Thomas-Greenfield.

While Russian grain and fertilizers aren't actually under US sanctions, Thomas-Greenfield pointed out that "companies are feeling a bit nervous," so the US is willing to provide written assurances just to give them the confidence they need...

Separately, UN spokesperson Stephan Dujarric noted on Tuesday that the head of UNCTAD, Rebeca Grynspan, held "constructive discussions" in Moscow with the Russian Deputy Prime Minister, Andrei Belousov, regarding the creation of conditions for the seamless export of Russian grain and fertilizers.

Given how much the prices for both have spiked lately, it looks like the Russians are going to end up making an extra windfall once again...