Posts by analogbear5

So what are you waiting for? Go shopping. Better grab stuff while prices are still high—once this war settles down, everything’s gonna adjust.

(Glad someone brought up gold. Now I see why you guys keep pushing the narrative that war and Western collapse are somehow better.)

Amanda Allen4 said:Back in 1981, gold was trading at $400 an ounce.

Look, when you're converting gold prices into fiat, you can't ignore inflation—it changes everything. A dollar in 2005 just had way more punch than a dollar does today.

Dana Robinson4 said:Exactly.

Back in 2005, when I was looking at buying a small commuter car, I realized I could have just bought an entire ounce of gold with that same amount of cash...

Fast forward to today, that old car is probably sitting in a junkyard in Detroit, but can you even imagine what an ounce of gold would cost now?

Same story as back in 1981.

Nancy Gomez26 said:Paper gold on those exchanges? Total garbage. It’s even more inflated than fiat. You either hold the actual metal in your hands—or you have nothing at all.

I'm wondering why they aren't factoring in the broker commissions. With this whole fetish, the only people actually making money are the ones selling you the metal.

urbanotter said:You’ve thrown out a lot of theories here, but you seem to be overlooking the fact that Russia is under heavy sanctions. The strength of the ruble is really just a byproduct of a massive trade surplus that has persisted despite all that external pressure.

Right now, that strong ruble is actually helping importers, especially since the American market is seeing shortages of products that were traditionally imported or produced by companies that pulled out of Russia due to the sanctions.

Honestly, don't lose any sleep over the ruble. Elvira Nabullina is the one managing it, and she deserves a fair amount of credit for ensuring that the sanctions haven't hit the Russian economy as hard as everyone expected.

What can you expect when Elvira Nabullina isn't getting paid by the ESB, but by the Russian state itself? And word is she pulls a "fat paycheck," many times larger than that subordinate Vujčić, who spends all his time trying to undermine us and everything south of Bulgaria.

Importers of what?

If you'd actually followed the economic forum in Petersburg, you would've heard one of the things Elvira Nabiuljina is demanding (Interfax). But why wouldn't she? She can only do what the mafia running the state tells her to do—they don't even understand the technicalities.

urbanotter said:I have to wonder where you're getting your information from—where on earth did you find an American ATM that carries rubles and actually accepts them?

With a nose for finding things like that, you could probably make a fortune hunting for truffles out in the countryside.

But setting aside the jokes, if we look at how sanctions are actually impacting the ruble, here is what the situation looks like:

The Russian ruble has been at its strongest point in two years. How is that possible?

Break down what an exchange rate like that actually means and how it hits the economy.

You're probably just gonna ignore me anyway—so here goes.

A strong Dollar hurts exports but makes importing a breeze. Basically, you get more foreign goods for less cash.

On the flip side, a weak Dollar tanks imports but gives exporters a boost. You get less foreign currency for every buck you spend. Any exporter not dealing in oil or gas? They're basically toast.

Why would anyone sacrifice tax revenue from exports like this? Wouldn't a weaker Dollar be better for padding the budget and bringing in more cash? If they actually wanted to fill the coffers, they shouldn't have cut those ExxonMobil dividends—those would've magically popped up in the federal budget proposals otherwise.

The Dollar is staying strong because it's being used as a fire extinguisher to fight inflation.

Instead of that old-school forced industrialization, we're seeing full-blown deindustrialization.

Cellular providers can't even get their hands on new gear—which is pretty much everything when you need a stable connection or decent internet. Since this stuff isn't manufactured domestically, they're stuck scavenging for used equipment on secondary markets, and honestly, even China isn't stepping up to help.

The fallout:

1) crappy communication quality

2) extra costs just to hunt down and import hardware

3) having to buy replacements more often because used gear is unreliable and has a weirdly short lifespan—which is just going to drive prices up again.

This is going to hit the rural areas way harder than the big cities. Telecom companies are basically stripping the functional gear from the outskirts just to keep the high-density metropolitan hubs running, since that’s where the real money is.

I can't really make sense of that one—looks like you might have missed the actual post content. Drop the text you want me to rework and I'll get on it. kaže:
That’s how it goes when sanctions don't actually deliver—instead, they just end up looping back like a boomerang. The one forcing it on everyone hurts way more than the ones stuck receiving it..😉

That’s just not true. If you've actually done some digging into how the Russian economy is holding up outside of the energy sector, feel free to drop the details here.

So, let's break it down—how much does a strong dollar actually mess with export revenue, and what’s the fallout for everyone except the big oil and gas players?

Meanwhile, over in another corner of the map, China’s Belt and Road initiative—specifically the Shanghai-Berlin route—is bypassing Russia because it just doesn't make enough sense financially.

The 1% who own more than half the country? Yeah, they’re definitely going to make it out alive.

Donna Harris11 said:?

right now they actually have a budget surplus.

Nope. Where'd you get that from?

Maybe you're thinking of the trade surplus—you even know what that number looked like for May?

And here I was, thinking the US was actually making a killing off this war.

urbanotter said:To make those bold claims work, you need energy and raw materials to actually create a product.

And when it comes to the fallout from sanctions, energy and raw materials are the ultimate deciding factors.

p.s.
If you have the labor and the brains but zero raw materials, you're basically just spinning your wheels in the mud.

Anyone who points out these realities is immediately labeled a "Russ supporter" and treated like an outcast, both in general discourse and right here on this forum.

Points stand. I wouldn't go as far as saying they'll run completely dry on resources, but prices have spiked hard because of this—especially stuff like palladium and titanium.

It all boils down to how we choose to respond to Russia's aggression against Ukraine:

- Military action.
- If not military, then sanctions.
- If not sanctions, then there's no response at all.

Some people are fine with military intervention because they're willing to pay that price.

Others hate the idea of military intervention because they won't foot that bill, but they're okay with the cost of sanctions.

Then there are those who aren't down with military action *or* sanctions because they don't want to pay either—they'd rather just pay the price of letting the invasion of Ukraine slide. For some, that cost is negligible; for others, it doesn't even exist. Some actually support the Russian invasion.

Between all these factions, there’s never going to be any meaningful dialogue.

Before all Americans start voting for some third party, maybe those Scandinavians should stop lecturing us about how great their welfare states are.*

* Not including the Finns, obviously—they're alright in my book.

How did you jump from "NATO isn't planning anything" to "Finland won't allow it"?

darkdriver said:👍
Look, I wasn't aiming at anyone specifically—not even you—but there are plenty of folks on this forum claiming that Chinese people will basically end up stuck in the Middle Ages if they don't have Western know-how and stuff like that.

Then show me the quote.

Bryan Booth82 said:👍
Since you clearly think I’m just incapable of grasping the topic, perhaps someone else—someone who actually managed to follow my logic—could explain what I was trying to say? I’ll leave that to the experts. With all due respect.
LP

Basically trying to use a straw man argument—fighting against some twisted, exaggerated version of an opinion held by imaginary people. He's leaning on humor to try and make his point hit harder.

As a follow-up, this type usually just claims they weren't understood or that their opponent lacks a sense of humor.

Usually, these guys are born ready—not hatched from eggs.

darkdriver said:Didn't you guys all claim China would need another 30 or 40 years—if they ever actually make it—to catch up to the West? I mean, wasn't the consensus mostly that they’re just basically glorified photocopiers of Western tech, churning out cheap, low-quality junk?
First off, regarding the idea that your average Russian—who, let's be honest, most of you think is just out there grazing in fields, digging holes in the ground to go to the bathroom, melting glacier ice because there's no running water, and spreading lard on bread because they've never even heard of Nutella—is going to suffer because of these sanctions... yeah, right.
You guys are honestly such a textbook example of hypocrisy.

Not quite. China is a developed superpower; Russia is still a developing nation.

"Quote:"

Donna Harris11 said:Oh, sure, because everyone here obviously speaks fluent Russian and spends all day glued to state-run propaganda outlets.😁

I guess people always jump to the conclusion that we're all just getting our news from some biased, conspiracy-theory-fueled morning tabloid or a sensationalist site like CNN.

Yeah. My Russian is pretty much stuck at a high school level—nothing crazy—so I’m leaning pretty heavily on machine translation to get by.

I mostly just keep up with those pro-Russian soldier blogs—guys like Murzin, for instance.

It’s all part of the play—Putin needs those Russian media outlets to go absolutely ballistic, barking and making threats left and right. It makes him look calm and collected by comparison, like some rational leader amidst all the hysteria.