rustywalker82 said:Just speculating about massive sanctions on Russian energy might actually push Ukraine closer to surrendering, because right now they’re basically funding the aggressor who is selling it back to them at much higher prices.
It would be even more expensive if every single country didn't jump on board with these sanctions. If everyone implements them before other producers can fix the tech or logistics to fill the gap, these sanctions will mostly just hurt the countries that don't have the infrastructure to find new suppliers. For example, if there's pressure on someone like Canada to support this, then the shortages should be spread out equally among all nations.
The tactic being played here could actually boost Putin's revenue while driving third-world countries into an economic abyss—some might even face famine if they can't afford to plant crops because everything got too pricey. That's a huge fail, because effective sanctions are supposed to drive down the value of the target goods, not make them more expensive.
All this nonsense regarding sanctions is going to look incredibly stupid if things escalate and Putin suddenly cuts off all exports to the West right before he falls. Then, the same people demanding sanctions today will be the ones writing articles saying we need to level Moscow to the ground because people in developing nations are starving.
Basically, it's total madness to speculate like this before relations improve or before oil and gas production ramps up in places like Venezuela or Iran... plus, replacing Russian coal takes time (that should have happened a long time ago).
So, you're implying that gas exports have always been Russia's sole lifeline.
If we are looking at a "wealthy" Russian military that currently runs out of fuel on the road and can't even afford medical teams on the front lines, I shudder to think what kind of force they will be by 2024 if they end up dealing with only 10-15% of their current gas volumes.
A tactic that would boost Putin's revenue while plunging third countries into economic ruin—or potentially causing famine if crops aren't prepared due to high costs—is a total failure,
because effective sanctions should drive down, not increase, the value of the targeted goods.
These sanctions will actually boost his revenue so much that his GDP might only drop by a measly 15-20% this year, assuming he gets lucky. Once the European Union starts diversifying its hydrocarbon supply, those numbers could plummet by 30% annually until they hit levels similar to Uzbekistan.
The sheer absurdity of these sanctions will be fully exposed if, following an escalation, Putin suddenly halts all exports to the West.
It is actually quite the opposite! He needs to start preparing right now for the reality that by 2025, oil and gas won't be flowing to the West anymore.
To pull that off, he needs to:
- Build a massive fleet of supertankers because Western companies won't carry his oil (since Korea and Japan won't build them, he'll likely have to rely on China)—let's say that takes five years if they book all the shipyard slots immediately.
- Construct a solid number of LNG terminals (assuming he can somehow stumble upon the necessary know-how and technology).
- Build a large fleet of LNG carriers, because again, Western companies won't handle the transport (see the supertanker point).
- Start laying pipelines toward China and India to transport 180-200 billion cubic meters annually, hoping they'll be finished by 2030.
All of this depends on being able to kick out current suppliers from those markets overnight.
Sure, he could shut everything down to the West without finding substitute markets, but then he'd just be surviving on roots and dirt.
