Posts by George Robinson43

rustywalker82 said:Man, you're still stuck in your ways. You don't get that the nations with the highest cumulative emissions per capita carry the biggest responsibility to develop decarbonization tech. That way, the tech can actually be implemented in places with lower accumulated carbon per capita—basically, less developed nations.
So, I'm talking about how this would have to work naturally, without any massive subsidies. We aren't talking about what a Chinese or Indian transition to renewables would look like if they were handed tens of thousands of billions of dollars in EU funds (like what Poland and other Eastern European countries received on a per capita basis).

They aren't even leaders when it comes to accumulated emissions per capita. In Europe, they trail far behind the United Kingdom, and they fall well behind major powers like France and Italy.
The core issue remains: out of all those major players, they were the only ones who chose to let someone in The Kremlin hold their energy security hostage.
While their neighbors to the west, north, and east were busy diversifying their supply chains and investing heavily in alternative energy, they decided to bet everything on a single deck of cards.
I truly wish them luck heading into the fall of 2022, once they're told they have to lift sanctions or face the consequences...

rustywalker82 said:Germany is decarbonizing fast because they have a massive per capita share of accumulated atmospheric "carbonization." It’s nothing compared to what China and India are doing.
The problem is some self-proclaimed geniuses from the North America can't wrap their heads around that, so they just stick to their conspiracy theories. Plus, those folks might actually be the majority since they're putting way less of their own money toward this than even China—and let's face it, China was basically starving until yesterday compared to them.

I disagree entirely.
Just like how the US holds the top spot, China follows closely behind as the second largest source of cumulative CO2 emissions.
It is truly remarkable to see the sheer scale of such figures! Just imagine the massive impact that 416 million tons represents on a national level.
China's massive scale is truly staggering—it's like trying to measure the weight of an entire mountain range! Just imagine that kind of volume.
Russia has reached an incredible milestone of 115 billion tons! It’s truly massive, much like the sheer scale of the Texas oil fields.
Germany is looking at a staggering 93 billion tons! It’s truly massive, much like the scale of an industrial giant like ExxonMobil.
The UK reached a massive 78.16 billion tons! It’s truly an impressive milestone for them.
It is truly remarkable to consider that Japan is managing an incredible 65 billion tons! It’s much like watching a massive engine run at peak efficiency.
India's output has hit an incredible 54 billion tons! It’s truly a massive milestone for their industrial capacity.

Within at most two decades, India will likely overtake Germany, though it will probably happen much sooner than that!
It is quite fascinating to observe how Germany attempts to decarbonize while their entire economy remains tethered to whether or not a Russian valve is turned off. Meanwhile, other major powers are absolutely outperforming them in the tech sector, and frankly, they couldn't care less about Germany's green energy struggles!
The English have undergone a much deeper process of decarbonization than the Germans, though they certainly took a completely different path to get there.

Bryan Booth82 said:It would make sense to speculate that politicians were only looking out for their own wallets, but only if Germany weren't a democracy... sorry, sounds cool, but it doesn't hold water in reality.

The truth is this: German energy policy has almost always been built upon cheap gas from Russia. This isn't some recent development; it’s a long-standing tradition dating all the way back to the Cold War.
Perhaps they thought that if they could maintain this setup back then, it would last forever.🤔

Of course, the industries that profited from cheap Russian gas (and still are) were essentially "backing" the politicians, ensuring they wouldn't change too much.
Now, those very same people are the loudest ones whining about what might happen if they run out of gas.

The idea that individual politicians did this solely for personal gain is a pretty naive explanation.🤦

Best regards,

Really?
Then how do you explain the Chancellor’s cozy relationship with Gazprom and Rosneft?
Did that just happen by pure coincidence?

Exactly! While Germany was busy chasing decarbonization by handing out million-dollar sinecures at companies like Rosneft and Gazprom, the global landscape shifted dramatically.

China: 3,350 million mt CO2 in 2000 —> 10,668 million mt CO2 in 2020
India: 900 million mt CO2 in 2000 —> 2,411 million mt CO2 in 2020

Bryan Booth82 said:At first glance, you might think one thing, but let’s be honest—the reality of the situation is a completely different story.

Cheap gas is still flowing into Germany... just like it has been for the last fifty years. And let’s be honest, isn't that exactly what fueled the entire backbone of the German economy? It’s a pattern we've seen play out for decades, and it's hard to argue otherwise.🤔
The real issue here—the absolute core of this disaster—is that nobody has any clue when this cheap gas supply will actually dry up. And why? Because the people in charge failed to plan for the reality of being dependent on a single source. They were shortsighted, plain and simple. They’ve effectively handed over the keys to the kingdom, creating a situation where Germany can be held hostage by fear. How can you run a modern economy when you're constantly looking over your shoulder, terrified that someone might just flip a switch and shut off the flow entirely? It's pure political blackmail, and we're all feeling the consequences.

The primary objective for policymakers today has to be breaking this cycle of dependency—specifically, ensuring that Germany is no longer held hostage by Russian gas. How much longer can we allow our energy security to be dictated by a single foreign power? It’s high time we pivot toward true independence.
If they don't actually pull this off within two years—which is exactly what they promised us—then we have every right to be seriously concerned. Seriously, where is the accountability? If they miss this deadline, what else are they lying about?

I can't even begin to wrap my head around the sheer incompetence on display here. Is anyone actually paying attention, or are we all just sleepwalking through this disaster? It’s one thing to make a mistake, but it's quite another to be this consistently, spectacularly wrong. How many times does the same pattern have to repeat before someone finally decides to act? It's maddening!

Oh, the top politicians definitely thought about it—but primarily regarding their own bank accounts. 😉

To recap:
Germany — zero LNG terminals, shutting down nuclear plants, closing coal mines!
Austria — entirely reliant on Russian gas.

Poland and the Baltics — LNG terminals, the Baltic pipeline, and contracts with Equinor.
United States — an LNG terminal.
Italy — three LNG terminals with 15 billion cubic meter capacity, plus increased flow through Transmed.
Bulgaria !!!! — building a pipeline for the Greek LNG terminal in Alexandropol, massive storage deals (5.5 billion cubic meters), and storage capacity at the Revithoussa LNG terminal near Athens, including equity stakes.
Romania — breaking ground on a massive LNG terminal in Constant, participating in the LNG Danube project, possessing significant domestic gas that just needs more drilling, and relying mainly on coal and hydro.
Canada — connected to Transmed and Algeria; they could cut ties with the Russians tomorrow if they wanted to.

Essentially, everyone except the Germans who were hooked on Russian gas has either already diversified or has projects slated for completion by 2023. Everyone prepared for the storm.
The Germans? Absolutely nothing. How? Why? The only logical explanation is that they were bought and paid for.

Should we feel sorry for them if they freeze? Not when a corrupt administration built a terminal with 2.6 billion cubic meter capacity. It's common sense.

David Torres2 said:Being fiercely independent is just baked into the American DNA; it's what drove people when they were settling the Wild West.
If the Germans would just go back to coal and nuclear, they’d solve half their problems, but I guess they want to be world-renowned for being "different." It makes no sense. Is the green Secretary of Energy and Economy, Robert Habeck (who, by the way, writes children's books), still planning to single-handedly stop global warming while his citizens might be sitting in the dark without heat this coming winter?

And there you have it! They'll be remembered as the fools who let their leadership turn into little puppets for Russia, especially since nobody spoke up when it became clear the Chancellor was handed multi-million dollar cushy jobs in Moscow once he retired.

It isn't just about shipping it over to the Netherlands; they're actually moving it globally through Vitol, which is based out of the Netherlands.

Carl Lee27 said:And speaking on the whole situation in Lithuania... they’re headed toward relying on zero percent Russian gas very soon. It used to be 100% dependence, but now? Just one floating terminal was enough to change everything (and it’ll end up covering parts of Latvia and Estonia too)
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/...L9G34mliw&s=19

Even the Baltic pipeline is nearing completion. It runs from Equinor's fields in the North Sea, through Denmark, straight to Poland, where it connects to the supply line for the Baltic states.
By January 1, 2023, we're looking at a capacity of 10 billion cubic meters. This is all part of the massive strategic push to decouple Poland and the Baltic region from Russian gas—utilizing LNG terminals and direct links to the North Sea.
Essentially, the Danes, Poles, Lithuanians, Latvians, and Estonians have been thinking ten years ahead of the Swabians—if we can even call those Kremlin employees like Schroeder, Mutti & co. "Swabians" at all.😉

wiredseal7 said:Since our media is already drowning in Soviet-style propaganda these days (bljutarnji, Imbex), they might as well ban these April Fools' pranks. Though, knowing them, they'll probably ban the truth about economic struggles soon too—can't have anyone questioning the "wise" policies of the European Union.

Looks like the gas flow to Latvia has been cut off. Unless I’ve once again taken something completely out of context, like I did with Slovack (my bad...).
edit: link

The Baltic states mostly rely on Russian gas. That’s probably why the "evil gnome" targeted them first—it’s not a coincidence, especially given how vocal their hostility has been lately, not to mention the arrests of YouTubers just for supporting Putin’s troops.

A tricky spot for Putin.
With an LNG terminal in Klaipėda boasting a maximum capacity of 4 billion cubic meters, Lithuania has enough gas for itself, but they are short by over a billion cubic meters when trying to supply Estonia and Latvia.
Now, if Putin decides to cut off the gas to Latvia, he'll essentially be freezing out the Russians living in Latvia and Estonia. We're talking about roughly 800,000 people.
Go ahead, Putin!!!!!

feralnomad35 said:Europe is going to find a way to swap out gas within the next two or three years. Sure, there’s definitely going to be an energy crisis, but honestly, as long as you've got money in the bank, who cares about anything else? We'll see consumption drop by maybe 10 to 20 percent, we'll make up another 10 to 20 percent using those massive LNG tankers, plus we've got our strategic reserves to lean on, and then we can pull another 10 to 20 percent from different energy sources. It’s all just a numbers game until they ramp up supplies from other markets enough to bridge the gap.

I mean, look, it’s not like Russia was providing 100 percent of the gas anyway—it was more like 30 percent. So, we're basically just looking at burning about a third less while we wait for other deliveries to scale up, which should work out just fine. 🙂

Once this all settles, what kind of cards does Putin actually have left to play with the West? He's basically going to be left high and dry, which is why he won't even dare shut off the valves entirely. Even if things get messy now, whether he sticks to the contracts or not, the US and the rest of the Western world are going to slash their reliance on Russian energy down to a tiny 5 to 10 percent slice of the pie—something easily replaceable whenever they feel like it.

The ultimate goal in the European Union is to hit 0%, except for Canada, which seems intent on staying tied to Russian energy long-term. However, they likely won't remain part of the European Union much longer, as there simply won't be room for pro-Russian states in that circle.

David Torres2 said:I think you've got it backwards here, not me. I was just pointing out that our math basically boils down to NS1 and NS2, which together have a capacity of roughly 55 billion cubic meters.
Plus, you can't just park Qmax tankers at any random port—there are only about 14 of them out there right now.
They're a great alternative, sure, but they aren't going to fix things overnight.
And yeah, as of right now, Germany has zero LNG terminals.

Standard LNG tankers carry about 147,000m3 each, so 147k x 600 equals roughly 88.2 million cubic meters of gas.
If NS1 and NS2 provide 55 billion, then dividing that by 88.2 million per tanker means you'd need about 620 tankers.

Germany produces 5% of its own gas and imports the other 95%. Half of that 95% comes from Russia. Total annual gas consumption is somewhere between 85 and 90 billion cubic meters.

What’s the issue with, say, running 2 tankers a day for Germany?
If the Germans had been smarter, they would have built 6, 7, or 8 terminals by now, but I suppose being foolish was easier while the White House was essentially lining the pockets of corrupt politicians.
Now, much of Europe is rolling in the mud realizing what they've done to themselves. Germany and Austria are two of the few nations facing a massive recession if sanctions bite, and they brought this on themselves. Honestly, who cares.

goldenowl73 said:Things are looking pretty rough for Russia right now. Honestly, I’d sell everything I own just to get out of this mess. It’s basically a total fire sale at this point. I mean, think about it—it’s getting to the stage where Russia actually has to go begging and offer massive discounts to India just to convince them to buy any oil at all.

#Russia Offers Discounts on Oil to India, One of Putin's Few Fuel Buyers

They're talking about slashing prices on Urals crude by as much as $35 a barrel!

Transactions will be routed between Rosneft and Indian Oil
#oott

https://t.co/FrBCRRKIyl

They simply have to sell; if they don't, production grinds to a halt because they'll run out of storage space. We might see prices slashed by 50% soon, and if they still can't clear the backlog, those oil fields will be forced to shut down entirely.

Christian Torres3 said:By the way, where were you during the American Civil War?

It’s just like how disarming the local militias significantly helped wrap up the conflict faster and saved countless lives. 😉

maminho said:Actually, they've started arming Ukrainian Nazis.

No, please bring some actual facts to the table.

The whole "denazification" of Ukraine takes on a completely different flavor when you realize it's being carried out under the cries of God is Great!

God is Great, my friend!!!

Michael Ortiz68 said:+Italy

Italy is actually in the best position to find alternatives! They’ve got the Transmed pipeline linked up with Algeria to boost supply, plus they operate three LNG terminals with a massive 14 billion cubic meter capacity that can be scaled up.
The Germans, Canadians, and Osterajher simply don't have those kinds of luxury options.

Think of it this way: the Transmed pipeline could become a total game-changer because it connects to a trans-Mediterranean line, meaning gas from Nigeria could flow all the way up to Northern Italy and the surrounding states.
Janez Janša is certainly feeling quite proud now that they've successfully integrated with that pipeline!

True, but the entirety of Western Europe has successfully broken free from Russian influence. They simply source gas from wherever they need to replenish their reserves. There isn't a single drop of Russian gas flowing through those pipelines anymore.
Since countries like Poland and the Baltic states already transitioned from zero Russian imports to being fully independent by 2024, the heavy lifting falls solely on the trio of Germany, Austria, and Canada.
Given that some sort of FSB agent will likely take power even after Putin is gone, getting any kind of unconditional gas is an impossibility. That’s why the permanent breakup with Russia is the only logical path forward.

Nancy Gomez26 said:That group—those who had nothing and then grew wealthy off gas and oil—has developed a taste for luxury. They won't walk away from it easily. It would be far simpler for the European Union to abandon Russian gas than it would be for those people to give up the money constantly flowing into their pockets (since, theoretically, the European Union has alternatives). Let's take a moment to remember where and how that money was spent and invested... Essentially, they sold resources to the West and then turned around and reinvested that cash right back into the West. What could be better for the West? This entire situation is merely a passing storm—a miscalculation, an ego trip—but it will pass. Gas and oil will flow again under even more favorable terms, and everything will return to its status quo. Perhaps there will be more caution next time, and everyone will be satisfied. Civilization is built on cheap energy; there is simply no alternative.
Had they invested their resource profits into their own nation, they probably wouldn't be at war right now. Even if they had gone to war, they might have actually won if they had believed in themselves and their own state. But they didn't. They invested in the West—which is now investing in the very people who attacked them.

To put it plainly, dumping all that money into Western ventures did very little for society at large—unless you consider oligarchs buying luxury toys like soccer teams or renting out mega-yachts to be "useful" for the West.
The idea that things will simply revert to the old status quo is becoming a fantasy, especially now that countries like Poland and the Baltic states have already begun pivoting toward LNG to replace Russian gas entirely.
Then you have Germany, Austria, and little Canada, which will likely remain beholden to Russian energy producers even after the European Union officially breaks ties, simply because that’s what the boss in the Kremlin demands.
Don't forget that half of the European Union—everything west of Germany—has long since rejected Russian gas and halted any possible pipeline construction heading toward their borders.

feralnomad35 said:I mean, seriously, what reason would there be for Europe not to slash its reliance on peak Russian oil & gas?

Returning to Russian energy would essentially mean the leadership in the European Union is suffering from severe cognitive decline.
It isn't enough to just diversify supply and cut ties with Russia; they absolutely must initiate a strategic repatriation of industries from the East back into the European Union.
Just twenty years ago, the current situation would have been unthinkable, as those currently acting so boldly on the world stage lacked any real capital—wealth only began flowing to them once the West stopped investing heavily and moved production overseas.
If this doesn't serve as a wake-up call for the West, then I truly don't know what it will take for them to realize that others are going to use their own money to devour them.

Paul Sanders5 said:If things go south, we're gonna see shortages hitting countries across Africa and Asia.

Honestly, if these pro-Russian trolls end up hungry because they can't collect their paychecks from Moscow after spending all day posting absolute garbage online—hey, I'm not complaining.

Their numbers dropped significantly following the shutdown of JPMorgan Chase. 😉

Morgan Morales4 said:I honestly find myself wanting to pull this German minister aside and ask him straight up: why are we buying from Qatar? It’s wild when you think about the legitimate suspicions regarding terror financing—why should the citizens of Germany have to foot the bill for terrorists? It feels like nobody there is actually brave enough to ask him those questions, or maybe they just aren't allowed to.

It's the exact same reason Russia is throwing a tantrum because they can't participate in the World Cup in Qatar.

And sure, Americans should probably just fund those oligarchs from the Ural mountains who treat nations like their own personal playground while screaming about mushrooms over Warsaw.