Posts by Arthur Hill2

I’m on the same page as Tsigi regarding Portland; yeah, take the Lakers handicap.

They brought in Sessions, and honestly, his current shooting numbers look absolutely fantastic. Portland, as we’ve already established, is in full tank mode and currently sitting on the heavy end of a back-to-back.

Also, getting 1.40 on the Bucks against a weak Charlotte squad sounds pretty satisfying. Just a word of caution, though—they’ve lost five straight playing in Charlotte.

Blazers -8.5 All in

ALL IN

Arthur Hill2 said:Looking ahead to tonight’s matchup, I find myself most drawn to the Paul vs. Ellis dynamic. There is a certain narrative weight to seeing Paul returning to his former club, which always adds an extra layer of intensity to these games. On the other side, Ellis is playing alongside Jennings, a player who isn't afraid to command a heavy usage rate and handle plenty of the ball himself. Given how the pieces fit together, the odds look quite attractive. Taking the over 2 seems like a solid play worth considering.

I agree with the assessment that Kaman under is the move here; 17 is simply too high a number for him to hit.

Eric Fox7 said:I have to disagree. 🙂

Handsome has cleared this line three times in his last four games—actually, he’s done it four times in his last six. Given that the Clippers haven't been showing much grit on the defensive end lately, there is a very real possibility we see him drop another 20+ points. 🤷

He finished with under 20.

Paul at 16, Ellis at 13. Honestly, what an incredible matchup to witness.

Looking ahead to tonight, my money is on Chris Paul in his matchup against Monta Ellis. There’s always a bit of extra weight when Paul returns to face his former squad, you know? Plus, Ellis is playing alongside Monta Ellis, who is more than capable of handling plenty of the ball himself. The odds look solid here; at +200, I think it's definitely worth a shot.

I'm with Marcus Kaman under. Seventeen points is just too high a bar for him to clear.

The spread is set this way because the Clippers are staring down their third game in just three nights, and let’s be real—these weren't exactly walks in the park. They had to deal with an away game against the Indiana Pacers followed by a trip to face the Oklahoma City Thunder, losing both by double digits. They've played five games in the last week alone. Still, my take remains the same: New Orleans Pelicans should come out on top here.

Rose played against the Raptors

Ugh, the Oklahoma City Thunder just killed my parlay with a smaller stake. I had the Milwaukee Bucks, Nash under, Phoenix Suns +10, and a 5-point spread on the New York Knicks against the OKC Thunder 😢

Bradley Kern6 said:Can someone explain what's going on with Portland? They look terrible lately. Are they dealing with some major injury issues?
I’d consider taking them against the Bucks, but I just don't trust them right now.🤷

The Bucks are on a roll, coming off four or five straight wins.

Furthermore, this is one of those games where losing serves Portland's interests—better odds for a higher draft pick—whereas Milwaukee desperately needs the win to stay neck-and-neck with the Knicks for that eighth seed.

As for tonight, I'm leaning toward the Nash under. When Miami focuses, their perimeter defense against point guards is elite. Plus, if it turns into a blowout, Steve might even sit the fourth quarter to rest.

wiredcanyon39 said:The trades and the coaching change absolutely gutted them.

That isn't entirely accurate. The trades and the dismissal were strategic moves intended to facilitate a total rebuild because the roster simply had no path to victory in its current state. They moved on from Oden, Camby, and Wallace—which netted them an excellent pick—and now they are almost certainly entering full tank mode to maximize their losses.

Eric Fox7 said:I laid out my reasoning above regarding why the situation is actually the exact opposite—unless they intentionally throw nearly every remaining game this season, which I find highly unlikely and frankly hard to imagine how they'd escape the fallout if it were proven they were tanking on purpose.🤷

Right now, there are 10 teams performing worse than Portland (two of whom still have a shot at the playoffs), which suggests Portland should realistically finish somewhere around 9th or 10th among the bottom tier. The statistical difference between finishing 14th versus 9th is a mere 1.2%.

That’s my take.

Since I'm already typing more out, I might as well add this: what are the odds of the Bulls landing the number one pick and securing one of today's elite prospects?1.4% That's roughly one in four.😁

Anyway, looking at tonight's slate, I'll keep it simple; I've been having a bit of a rough patch lately:

Oklahoma—I'm taking them purely because the odds are tempting at 1.70. They are the top team in the West, and while they've hit a few bumps recently, I seriously doubt Utah will show any real fight tonight.

Nash under 12.5—It is entirely plausible that Miami will target Steve tonight given his lack of support. Expect them to double him and play aggressively, perhaps even utilizing those handchecks that the Heat seem to be letting slide for some reason. Let's hope he breaks them open in the fourth quarter.

That covers it. Good luck to everyone tonight.

James Taylor3 said:Just wait until you see what fans are posting on the official Trail Blazers Facebook page. 😁

I honestly don't understand the issue with accepting the fact that it's actually smarter for the Blazers to lose right now than to win.

Tanking isn't about players closing their eyes during shots or refusing to jump for loose balls. It’s about strategically weakening the roster to ensure the team can be twice as strong in the future. That is exactly what the Portland front office did when they moved on from players like Gobert and Covington. Unless someone genuinely believes that Okur and Williams are going to save this season, we have to face reality. You have locals born and raised in Portland rooting against their own team, watching other struggling franchises just to see them fail, and here we are debating whether the 12th best team in the West—a team currently in total shambles—has even a remote chance at making the playoffs 🙂.

As far as I'm concerned, this discussion is over.

What the Portland Trail Blazers faithful actually think 🙂

Bradley Kern6 said:Can someone walk me through how the draft pick system works? What’s the deal there?
Also, I wouldn't bet on the Suns. I don't see Miami absolutely crushing them; they haven't looked that dominant lately, and Phoenix is playing solid basketball right now. My money is on a tight game where Miami doesn't win by more than ten points.

A draft pick is essentially an opportunity to select a player during the NBA Draft.

Every franchise is entitled to one selection in the first round each year. The order of these picks is determined by the standings from the regular season. Essentially, the teams with the worst records hold the highest probability of securing the top pick.

The number one overall pick is incredibly significant because it frequently yields a future All-Star talent.

Eric Fox7 said:@ Arthur Hill2
Do you really think the Blazers are going to bottom out, even if they're trailing by two or three wins for a playoff spot?
I highly doubt it. 🤷

In my view, trading Wallace for a first-round pick pretty much validates my earlier point. Why settle for the eighth seed? You just get knocked out by the Thunder in four straight games. And what do you actually gain with a late 20th-plus pick? It’s far more strategic for the long term to grit your teeth, take the hit this year, and potentially walk away with two high-value picks in a deep draft class.

Ultimately, I don't see the logic in trading away your second or third best player for assets that won't even matter until next season.

They picked up some wins against OKC and Chicago recently, but you could easily attribute that to the momentum generated by the new head coach.

Aghagahaghagahga 🤣

We’re entering the final quarter, and without Rose, they look incredibly thin on depth.

It’s a safe bet that Deng hits the over; I’ve got him on my fantasy roster in my local league, so he basically has a legal obligation to deliver 🙂

They’re a damn tough crew to call, there’s no two ways about it.

Edward Gonzalez36 said:What kind of center are they running this with while they push so many three-pointers? Why??? I’m no expert on basketball tactics, but I really want to understand this logic.

It comes down to the fact that a center can play the pick-and-roll, though Chicago isn't really leaning into that tonight.

Orlando built this roster specifically around Howard. You'll notice that on paper, everyone is a solid shooter—Turkoglu, Anderson, Redick, Nelson, and so on.

The plays become predictable after just five minutes. If you take away Howard and his elite defense and offensive presence, this team would be right up there with the Charlotte Hornets fighting for the worst record in the league.

Deng finishes with 8 points on 3-for-9 shooting. Every single three-pointer they attempt feels like a nail-biter where we're all just praying for a miss.

Joseph Lewis13 said:They’re going to close the gap on Orlando in the third quarter... there’s still plenty of time left... a 15-point lead in the NBA means absolutely nothing.

Orlando is a unique case. It’s all or nothing with them. Right now, it looks like a big nothing.

It’s clear that Noah is having a serious run-in with Howard. At this rate, he could easily slide right into overtime.

Deng is struggling, which makes Orlando a clear-cut pick here.

Deng is essentially playing through a torn ligament in his shooting hand, and you can see how much it’s hurting his efficiency lately. His shooting has been absolutely abysmal over the last five games. (He went 1-for-9 in the most recent matchup against Orlando)

I’m leaning towards an Orlando win because Chicago is playing without Rose. At 1.80 odds, taking the home team against a depleted Chicago roster is a move you have to make. I just hope Orlando doesn't let us down tonight.

Good luck to everyone tonight.