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Posts by Keith Moore21

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NBA Betting: Vol. 2 in Betting Forum ·
Hannah Roberts66 said:Does anyone have any solid NBA picks for today? Give me something to work with!

Man, I went ahead and dropped a little something on yesterday's slate—nothing crazy, just a small play—and honestly, everything hit perfectly. But hey, who could've actually seen that coming, right? Luck is a funny thing, I guess.

So, my humble take? I’m leaning toward Dallas at 1.6 in the spread... honestly, that’ll probably be my main anchor for today. I'm gonna spend the afternoon digging through the stats and seeing how the matchups look, then we'll see where things land...
NBA Betting: Vol. 2 in Betting Forum ·
Bryan Adams6 said:Taking the Lakers at 1.6 seems pretty tempting, I guess—but only if we get word that Kobe is actually good to go. He took a nasty fall toward the end of yesterday's game and caught his right shoulder on the hardwood, which isn't ideal😕
if everything turns out fine with him. They shouldn't have much trouble against a weak Sacramento squad, right? I mean, they probably won't let themselves slip into an 0-2 start to the season, surely?

Hmm, I don't know... the Lakers should probably take it, but I have a feeling this Sacramento team is going to be tricky this year, especially playing at home... that lineup of Evans, Thornton, Salmons, Hayes, and Cousins doesn't look half bad, and with guys like Jimmer coming off the bench ready to pop off at a moment's notice, plus Hickson and Outlaw...
edit: My main play today is Dallas at 1.6 in the spread... yeah, the Heat absolutely dismantled them yesterday, but they rested a few guys (Dirk didn't even play the whole fourth quarter), and Denver is missing J.R. Smith, Martin, and Chandler. Even though Denver isn't exactly terrible, I'm thinking the champs are going to try and make up for yesterday's disaster for their fans today...
NBA Betting: Vol. 2 in Betting Forum ·
So, I was looking over the Southwest situation again—part two of this whole saga—and honestly, I’m still trying to wrap my head around it all. It’s just one of those things where you think you’ve got a handle on what’s happening, and then... nope, there’s more. Maybe I’m just being cynical, but it feels like we're constantly chasing moving targets here. Anyway, I wanted to dive back into the details because there's some stuff I didn't quite touch on before. I guess what I'm getting at is that the sheer scale of how this is playing out is kind of wild—if you can even call it that. It’s messy, sure, but also strangely predictable once you see the pattern. I don't know, maybe I'm overthinking it, but it seems like everyone involved is just sort of winging it and hoping for the best, which—let's be real—is usually a recipe for a headache. Just my two cents, though.

So, I was just sitting here thinking about the Houston Rockets—and man, where do we even start? It’s one of those teams that keeps you constantly guessing, which I guess is both the best and worst part of being a fan. You look at the roster and think, "Okay, maybe this is finally the year," only to have things go sideways in the most unpredictable ways possible. It’s a bit of a rollercoaster, honestly—lots of ups, some pretty intense downs, and a whole lot of "what if" scenarios hanging over our heads. I mean, there's talent there, plenty of it, but finding that perfect rhythm—that elusive chemistry where everything just clicks—seems to be the big hurdle we're always tripping over. It’s frustrating, sure, but I can't say I've ever been able to fully walk away from the chaos. Just another season in the life, I suppose.
So, looking back at last season's regular season record—they finished 43-39, which put them sitting at 9th in the West—and yeah, they just barely missed out on the playoffs. Tough break, I guess.


Arrivals So, looking at this lineup—we’ve got Jeremy Lin running the point, Jonny Flynn stepping in at PG, then you've got the rookies Chandler Parsons and Marcus Morris holding things down at the forward spots, plus Samuel Dalembert anchoring the paint at center. It's... an interesting mix, I guess. A little bit of everything, maybe? Just feels like a real patchwork squad if I'm being honest.
Departures... or whatever you want to call them. So, you’ve got Chuck Hayes playing the power forward spot against a literal giant like Yao Ming... man, that is just wild to think about. I mean, looking at the matchup, it’s basically a David and Goliath situation—if David was a gritty, undersized defender and Goliath was a seven-foot-six skyscraper. It’s kind of crazy how much heart you have to have to step into the paint against someone that massive, even if you're as tough as Chuck. I guess you just have to pray your positioning is perfect, because if you're even an inch off, you're getting swallowed up by Yao. Just a total mismatch on paper, honestly.
So, here’s my take on the probable starting five—and honestly, I might be totally off base here, but I've been chewing on this all morning. I guess you could say it's looking like... well, this. So, looking back at this roster—it’s kind of a wild ride, isn't it? You’ve got Kyle Lowry running the point, then Kevin Martin coming in at the shooting guard spot... I mean, if you need scoring, he’s your guy, I guess. Then there's Chase Budinger at small forward, followed by Luis Scola at power forward—which, honestly, is a pretty solid veteran presence to have in the paint—and finally rounding things out with Samuel Dalembert holding it down at center. It's definitely an interesting mix of guys, maybe a little unconventional depending on how you look at it, but hey, that's basketball for you.
Coach – Kevin McHale
So, first things first—Houston just brought in Kevin McHale as their new head coach, and honestly, most of the pundits seem to agree that he can actually pull some real results out of this squad. Looking at the starting lineup, you’ve got Kyle Lowry at the point—solid dude, really physically tough, decent shot, and knows how to drive to the hoop. Then there’s Goran Dragic, who’s also got a great drive and shooting touch; he’s maybe a little light physically, I guess, but he makes up for it with pure speed. You’ve also got Jonny Flynn and Jeremy Lin on the roster, though they probably won't see much meaningful floor time. Moving over to the two-guard spot, the standout player here is definitely Kevin Martin. He’s an incredible shooter, but—and there's always a "but"—he's a bit undersized, which means he struggles a little when facing those beefier defenders. Courtney Lee will likely step in for him; he's a reliable player whose main thing is his perimeter shooting. Now, the small forward position? Yeah, it’s pretty weak, to be blunt. I think Chase Budinger might start—he can shoot and he's alright in the air, but there isn't much else to him, really. One option could be Lee again, though he lacks the height for that wing spot. Then you have guys like Terrence Williams, who can slide into a shooter role, and Marcus Morris, who looked pretty decent during the preseason—even if his natural fit is more at the four. There's also Marqus Blakely and Chandler Parsons in the mix. If I had to bet, I’d say Marcus Morris has the best shot at seeing some real minutes, just based on how he was looking in the preseason stats. At the power forward spot, you're looking at Luis Scola, who is easily one of the best players on this team alongside Martin. He doesn't exactly have the massive physical frame, but he compensates for that with high-level technique and just being a smart player—plus, his footwork is great and he’s got a killer mid-range jumper. He’ll likely be backed up by Jordan Hill, whom the front office is expecting to make a big impact. Once Patrick Patterson gets back from injury, he'll be in the rotation too. And then there's the rookie, Donatas Motiejunas, but I don't see him getting much action anytime soon. Finally, at center, the newcomer Samuel Dalembert should start—he's a steady guy, good at rim protection and rebounding. He’ll probably be rotated with Hasheem Thabeet, who is... well, he's an average player. He's one of the tallest guys in the league at 7'3", but he doesn't quite seem to use all that height the way he should.
So, looking back at last year, the Rockets missed the playoffs entirely—and honestly? I’ve got a gut feeling they’re headed for the same fate this season. It’s a shame about Yao Ming having to hang it up early because of those brutal foot injuries, but let's be real, the Houston squad has been playing without him for a while now anyway. They've kind of adjusted to life without the big man. They lost Hayes too, which leaves a massive hole in their rebounding—they're definitely going to miss that energy around the rim. Plus, with Patterson sidelined for a bit, the whole weight of the rotation is basically falling on Scola's shoulders. Their new coach is preaching this heavy inside-out game—basically trying to hammer away in the paint to rack up points—but man, the depth on this bench is thin. If either Martin or Scola catches an injury, the Rockets are basically cooked. They aren't exactly known for being a defensive powerhouse, either, so fixing that scheme is probably going to be the coach's biggest headache right out of the gate. I guess we just have to wait and see how these rookies shake out. If one of them actually steps up like a legitimate contributor and the coach can actually get the defense sorted, maybe—just maybe—they could sneak into a playoff spot. But it's looking pretty uphill from here.

Man, I was just sitting here thinking about the San Antonio Spurs—and honestly, it’s kind of a wild ride, isn't it? I mean, you look at where they're at right now versus that whole dynasty era... it’s a massive shift. It feels like we're basically in that awkward middle phase where everything is being rebuilt from the ground up—which, let's be real, can be pretty exhausting to watch sometimes if you aren't prepared for the grind. But then you've got the young talent coming in, and I guess you have to stay optimistic, right? There’s definitely a sense of "wait and see" hanging over the whole franchise. You see these flashes of brilliance, and then maybe a rough patch hits, and you're just left wondering when the pieces are finally going to click. It’s a process—a long, slow, sometimes frustrating process—but hey, that's basketball, I suppose. Just gotta hang in there and see if this vision actually pans out. So, looking back at last season's run—they actually finished with a 61-21 record in the regular season, which put them sitting pretty at the top of the Western Conference—but then everything just kind of fell apart in the first round when they got knocked out by Memphis, losing the series 4-2.


Arrivals So, looking at this lineup—we’ve got T.J. Ford running point, Cory Joseph backing him up, Kawhi Leonard at the small forward spot, and then David Bertans and Adam Hanga holding things down at the forward positions... I mean, it's an interesting mix, I guess. You’ve got that elite perimeter defense with Kawhi, which is obviously huge, but then you're trying to balance out the scoring and the physicality in the frontcourt. It feels like a group that could really grind teams down defensively, though whether they have enough offensive firepower to keep up in a high-scoring shootout—well, that's probably up for debate. Just a bit of a gritty, defensive-minded rotation if you ask me.
Departures So, you’ve got George Hill holding things down at the point—and honestly, he’s alright—plus Antonio McDyess working the power forward spot... I mean, it's an interesting look, I guess. Maybe? It feels like a bit of a throwback vibe, if that makes sense. Just one of those lineups that makes you stop and think for a second about how much grit you actually need on the floor.
My money’s probably on this starting five—it feels like the most likely lineup to actually take the field. So, looking at this lineup—Tony Parker at point, Manu Ginobili in the shooting guard spot, Richard Jefferson at the small forward position, Tim Duncan holding things down at power forward, and DeJuan Blair coming in at center—it’s an interesting mix, I guess. You've got that legendary core with Tony and Manu, which is obviously huge, paired with guys like Richard and DeJuan to round out the frontcourt... it's definitely a specific vibe, maybe a bit unconventional depending on how you view the spacing.
Coach Gregg Popovich
So, looking at the San Antonio Spurs roster, they haven’t really shaken things up much—at least when it comes to the core starters. On the play, you’ve got the veteran Tony Parker, and honestly, there isn't much to say there; he's fast, he's experienced, he just gets it done. I'm guessing T.J. Ford will step in for him, though I've been reading that the rookie Cory Joseph might actually see some floor time too. Ford—who we caught watching back when he was playing over in Europe—is incredibly quick and has that aggressive drive to the hoop, so he should be able to hold his own whenever Parker needs a breather. Then you've got Manu Ginobili at shooting guard, who is just... man, he's such a smart, complete player—shooting, driving, vision, all of it. He'll probably hand the reins over to Gary Neal, who's a solid physical specimen with a decent stroke from deep. I wouldn't be surprised if Danny Green grabs some minutes there too, especially since he can slide over to the small forward spot. Speaking of which, Richard Jefferson is holding down that wing; he's a vet with great athleticism, a reliable shot, and he's pretty stout on defense. For depth there, besides Green, I think the rookie Kawhi Leonard might actually get a decent rotation, maybe serving as the primary backup for Jefferson. At the four, it's Tim Duncan. I mean, what else is there to say? Even with the years on him, the guy is still easily capable of putting up something like 15 and 10 on any given night. Behind him, you've got Matt Bonner, whose whole thing is being a specialist from beyond the arc. Finally, at center, we're looking at DeJuan Blair. He’s definitely undersized for the position, I guess, but he makes up for it with pure bulk and strength—I'm expecting him to chip in around 10 points and maybe 5 to 10 boards. Rounding out the bigs is Tiago Splitter, whom many of us followed over in the European leagues—he's a high-IQ player and has really impressive post technique.
So, the Spurs—who actually had the second-best record in the league last season, just behind the Bulls—ended up getting bounced in the first round after losing 4-2 to Memphis. They lost George Hill and McDyess over the offseason, which... I guess might be an issue? Honestly, though, I don't think it’ll be a huge deal. For the playoffs, they brought in T.J. Ford to step in for Parker, and he should be able to hold his own reasonably well. Plus, McDyess didn't really move the needle for them much anyway; you can probably make up for those 4 or 5 rebounds a night by giving Splitter more minutes—maybe sliding Blair down to the 4 spot, or maybe even giving Bonner a bit more run. You pretty much know how the offense is gonna look: lots of drives from Parker and Jefferson, while Ginobili can basically do whatever he wants, including dropping down to help Duncan. These guys are notorious for being a nightmare to beat at home because their crowd is always so loud. The starting five is super strong and experienced, sure, but man, they are old. It’s a real question of how much gas is left in the tank. Making the playoffs seems like a given to me, but going any further? I have my doubts, depending on who they run into in the first round. Then again, they've been champs before—they know the drill—and they’ve got a great coach. For some of these guys, this might honestly be their last shot at grabbing one more ring.

NEW ORLEANS HORNETS (finished last season 46-36, 7th in the West, lost 2-4 to the Lakers in the first round)


Arrivals – Eric Gordon (SG), Al-Farouq Aminu (SF), Chris Kaman (C)
Departures – Chris Paul (PG), David West (PF), Aaron Gray (C)
Probable Starting Lineup – Jarrett Jack (PG), Eric Gordon (SG), Trevor Ariza (SF), Emeka Okafor (PF), Chris Kaman (C)
Coach – Monty Williams
The Hornets have been through the ringer these last couple of weeks. After a trade with the Lakers fell through, they finally worked out a deal with the Clippers—basically swapping Chris Paul for Eric Gordon, Al-Farouq Aminu, and Chris Kaman. Jarrett Jack is likely going to start at point guard, which is a pretty thankless job since he's trying to fill the shoes of the best floor general in the league. We'll see if he can pull it off, though we all know he isn't in the same stratosphere as Paul. They've also got Jerome Dyson and Carldell Johnson, and judging by preseason action, Johnson will probably see more action. At shooting guard, you've got Eric Gordon—he's young, super talented, has the handles, the drive, the physicality... he really needs to step up as the leader here. His backup is Marco Belinelli, who's a solid player for whatever minutes he gets and a killer shooter. Trevor Ariza takes the 3; he's a stout defender, and his main weapon on offense is his shot. He'll probably be rotated with the newcomer Aminu, who's got great tools and size, even if his jumper is kind of shaky. Okafor will probably start at the 4—he's a powerhouse defensively, so I'm expecting about 10 boards and a few blocks a night. They also have Carl Landry, who's a good player and a beast on the glass. Then there's Chris Kaman at center; he's a veteran with great post moves, really tough, and decent on defense. There isn't a particularly deep bench behind him, so maybe a rookie will grab some minutes.
Looking at the Western Conference lineup (OKC, Dallas, San Antonio, Clippers, Memphis, Lakers, Denver...), it’s gonna be a struggle for the Hornets to even make the playoffs. Losing two pillars like Chris Paul and David West is massive. The only way they make up for that loss is through pure team chemistry. Jack gets a chance to prove what he can do, Gordon has to be the guy and average maybe 20 points a game, Ariza needs to lock things down defensively and hit his open looks, Okafor needs to grab those boards and finish strong, and I think they really need to feed Kaman in the post since he's so good one-on-one. If they get decent production from the bench—Aminu, Belinelli, and Landry—they might be able to scrap for that 8th seed, which is the last spot in the playoffs. To go any higher than that? I just don't think they have the depth.
NBA Betting: Vol. 2 in Betting Forum ·
SOUTHWEST 1/2

DALLAS MAVERICKS
(defending champs, went 57-25 in the regular season last year, 3rd in the West)


Arrivals – Delonte West (PG/SG), Vince Carter (SG), Lamar Odom (SF/PF), Brandon Wright (PF)
Departures – J.J. Barea (PG), Deshawn Stevenson (SG), Corey Brewer (SF), Caron Butler (SF), Peja Stojakovic (SF), Tyson Chandler (C)
Likely Starting Five – Jason Kidd (PG), Vince Carter (SG), Shawn Marion (SF), Dirk Nowitzki (PF), Brendan Haywood (C)
Coach – Rick Carlisle
So, looking at the numbers above, the defending champs have definitely shaken things up quite a bit. At point guard, honestly, you don't even need to say much about Kidd—he’s a legend. He’ll probably see some time shared with West, who can cover both guard spots, though I guess West will mostly be running the show at the point. He’s a solid role player, and his shooting is probably his biggest asset here. I'm not entirely sure how many minutes Rodrigue Beaubois is going to see, though, especially given all the experience Kidd and West bring to the table. For the shooting guard spot, we've got Carter, who I think could actually have a pretty killer season; he won't have to carry the entire load like he did back when he was the main man for the Toronto Raptors or the New Jersey Nets, so he should find plenty of space—you know, maybe after defenses double-team Dirk, or during those Kidd or Terry pick&roll plays with the bigs. Of course, Terry will step in as the "sixth man," and we all know what he brings to the party—great shooting, tons of confidence, and he's a core piece of this squad. Moving to the small forward spot, it'll likely be Marion or Odom (who can also slide to PF). Marion is an absolute beast on defense, moves great in transition, and can still knock down shots from deep. Then there's Odom, who's basically a Swiss Army knife—can play almost anything, good on the glass, solid defender, and offensively he can create his own shot, drive to the rim, or just pop out for a three... At power forward, we have Nowitzki, and well, I mean, enough said. He'll be backed up by Odom and I assume Brandon Wright, who should do a decent job—he's a really strong rebounder—and maybe a veteran like Cardinal gets some scraps too. For center, they're leaning on Haywood. In my opinion, he’s a good player, but man, his injury history is a bit concerning, so we’ll just have to see if he stays healthy this season. He'll be backed up by Mahinmi, who is a bit of a journeyman, but he can definitely handle whatever duties come his way given his expected minutes—playing defense, grabbing boards, throwing down a dunk here and there, stuff like that.
Everyone seems to agree that Dallas has another title run in them this year. The big "if" is obviously health. It's a shorter season, fewer games, which means less wear and tear on—I won't call them old, since they're the reigning champs—but let's say this very experienced group, and more time for rest and prep heading into the season. On the flip side, though, there's the motivation question. It sounds weird, I know, but you have to wonder how "hungry" they still are, and people always say it's easier to win a ring than it is to defend one. As far as the actual play goes, I don't think they'll have any issues on offense; we know what Kidd, Carter, Terry, Odom, Marion, and Dirk can do. The main mission for Coach Carlisle is gonna be getting this defense sorted out. We saw last year they can play elite defense—I mean, they wouldn't have won the whole thing if they couldn't. They did lose a bit of that grit with Chandler and Stevenson gone, but I think if Haywood stays upright, he can hold down the fort defensively. Plus, against teams without a dominant center—maybe ones with a stout PF instead—they could probably slide Nowitzki to the five and move Odom to the four. That way, Dirk doesn't have to burn all his energy on defense, and Odom can handle the forwards, or even slide to the perimeter to guard guards and wings. Offensively, everything is gonna flow through Dirk, Terry, and Kidd orchestrating things, plus Odom's versatility and the slashing from Marion and Carter... So yeah, they've got plenty of options and a deep bench (West, Terry, Odom, Wright). Again, I'll say it: if they stay healthy and if Haywood, Odom, and Carter can fill the defensive void left by Chandler and Stevenson, they could go real far again.

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES (they went 46-36 in the regular season last year, grabbed the 8th seed in the West, took down San Antonio 4-2 in the first round, but then got bounced by Oklahoma City 3-4)


Arrivals – Jeremy Pargo (PG), Josh Selby (PG, rookie)
Departures – Shane Battier (SF)
Probable Starting Five – Mike Conley (PG), Tony Allen (SG), Rudy Gay (SF), Zach Randolph (PF), Marc Gasol (C)
Coach – Lionel Hollins
The Memphis Grizzlies haven't really shaken things up much in terms of the roster—it’s pretty much the same crew. At point guard, you're looking at the usual guy, Conley. He isn't exactly a superstar, but he gets the job done, I guess... though he probably needs to tighten up his shooting and stop coughing up the ball so much. He’ll likely be backed up by Pargo, a guard who spent last season playing over in Europe for Maccabi Tel Aviv, and from what I’ve seen, he should be able to hold his own when Conley needs a breather. He’s an explosive, bouncy player—maybe even the "ideal" type for the NBA—and his penetration is definitely his calling card. For the shooting guard spot, Allen will probably start. He’s a defensive beast and does great in transition, but man, his shot is shaky—let's just say his three-point percentage last season was a rough 15% or so. O.J. Mayo will likely step in as the "sixth man," and honestly, he's a much better offensive threat than Allen (he was hitting about 40% from deep during the playoffs last year). We might also see some minutes from Greivis Vasquez there too. Moving to the small forward position, you've got Rudy Gay, who—alongside Randolph—is easily one of the best players on this squad. He missed the playoffs last year due to injury, but he's recovered and ready to go. He's got a good drive, decent shooting, and can play well with his back to the basket since he's got the height (around 6'8") to make it work; he's pretty explosive and overall a fairly complete player. I assume Sam Young will fill in for him, but he's just an average dude who might cover some wing minutes, though I don't expect him to see much more than 10-15 minutes if Gay stays healthy. At power forward, we have the team's biggest star, Zach Randolph. If he stays healthy, he'll probably put up another 20 and 10 kind of season. He’s a complete player—great footwork, a lefty which makes him a nightmare to guard, physically tough as nails, and he can actually hit the occasional three. I'm not entirely sure who's going to give him a rest, though it should have been Darrell Arthur, but he's likely out for the whole season with an injury. So, it'll probably fall to veterans like Brian Skinner or Walter Sharpe, neither of whom I expect to do much with. Finally, at center, we have the younger Gasol brother. He’s a really solid player with great footwork, a decent mid-range game, and he's strong enough to hold his own against almost any center in the league. Like I mentioned, Skinner is probably the only guy left who could slide over to cover center if needed, so he'll likely see some action there.
Most of their offense is going to run through the bigs inside, since that's clearly where their strength lies—they've got guys in Randolph and Gasol who are absolute monsters in one-on-one post situations. Of course, Rudy Gay is going to get his touches too, especially if teams start doubling down on Randolph, and then you've got Mayo's shooting, plus the drives from Conley and Allen... But, if I'm being honest, my gut tells me Memphis might be a bit weaker than they were last year. Losing Battier hurts—he was such a reliable defender and a decent shooter—and they don't really have a legitimate backup for Gay, who's probably going to have to log nearly 40 minutes a night. Plus, losing Arthur, who was the only real backup for Randolph, leaves a hole. They don't even have a real contingency plan for Gasol. Even though they proved they could win a few games without one of their main guys (like during the playoffs when Gay was out), I think they're going to run into serious trouble if either Gay or Randolph goes down. If those two stay healthy, they'll probably cruise into the playoffs, and maybe even scrape past the first round (though even that feels like a toss-up if they run into OKC or Dallas), but I wouldn't bet on them going much deeper than that.