Posts by George Thompson8

PLAYED: 5 / WIN: 4 (80%) / LOSE: 1 / + 16,61 units

Detroit Pistons – Orlando Magic under 183 @ 2.040 Pinnacle 5/10
The margin is pretty thin here, but I guess I’m not afraid to take the under. I just don't see how this turns into some insane shootout for either side. Defense seems to be the better part of both rosters—or maybe I should say, the less terrible part, even if it sounds weird considering the Pistons are giving up 98 points a game on average. Still, their last few games show some movement, especially defensively; they held Oklahoma City Thunder to just 92 points, though they did give up 30 in the fourth. Meanwhile, the 76ers held Philly to 76 points, letting them grab only 34 in the first half. Offensively, the Magic are weaker than both these teams, especially without Jameer Nelson and Hedo Turkoglu in the lineup. Averaging 80 points on the road is honestly pathetic. Both teams play at a slow pace, their offensive rebounding is among the worst in the league, and free throw volume is low, plus the FT% isn't anything to write home about either. Basically, neither squad has a true pure shooter—Nate Afflalo might have potential, but he's been way too inconsistent early this season—who can just drop 25+ on any given night. They're mostly just blue-collar teams lacking real offensive firepower.

Nikola Peković over 14.5 @ 1.85 HL 7/10 units

With the Timberwolves dealing with this massive string of injuries (Barea, Roy, Rubio, Budinger, Love), I guess Peković and Kirilenko are basically the only offensive options left. They’re heading to Dallas today, and honestly, the Mavericks' interior defense hasn't been all that dominant early on. A few teams have already jumped them, so maybe Peković has enough gas in the tank to carry the load offensively. He’s seen more minutes lately against the Pacers and Bulls, and he’s cleared this line in every single road game this season.

LA Clippers - Atlanta Hawks

-5,5 LA Clippers @1,909 Pinnacle 6/10 units
I don't really see how the Hawks can hang with the Clippers tonight if they're feeling it. Honestly, looking at it realistically, the Clippers probably should have been 6-0 by now. Those home losses against the Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers were mistakes they can't afford to make again if they actually want to contend this postseason. But, the games since then suggest they learned their lesson. They looked dominant beating the San Antonio Spurs and on the road against the Portland Trail Blazers. Their offense is clicking right now. They’ve cleared 100 points in all six games so far, averaging about sixty players in double figures. The roster feels balanced at every spot, and the depth at the guard positions is huge. You basically have Chris Paul and Draymond Green starting—who just came over from the Hawks this year—but the real strength is the bench. Having Jamal Crawford there, who's been arguably the league's best sixth man for years, changes everything. Add Eric Bledsoe and Jimmy Butler to that mix, and you're just waiting for Chauncey Billups to get back. On paper, I guess that's easily a top three backcourt in the league. On the flip side, the Hawks have been shuffling their guards constantly this season. Losing their main guy, Russell Johnson, left a hole they've tried to fill with a revolving door of guys like Williams, Morrow, Stevenson, Kyle Korver, and Tony Harris. Drew is experimenting a lot early on, and it's pretty obvious he hasn't found the right formula yet. Maybe the Hawks have an edge at the wing with Josh Smith, but the Clippers' rotation there is deep enough to shut him down. They've got two veterans from the LA Lakers, Odom and Marvin Barnes, plus Butler, who can slide over to cover Smith. Inside, the Clippers should dominate again, especially seeing how much Michael Jordan has improved offensively compared to last year. It'll be an interesting matchup between Al Horford and Jordan, especially since Jordan has a much stronger backup in Blake Griffin. Also, the Hawks have another game tomorrow against Portland, so if they find themselves in a big hole early, I doubt Drew is going to force it.

Brooklyn Nets vs. Orlando Magic

-7.5 Brooklyn @ 1.926 Pinnacle
under 191 @ 1.952 Pinnacle
Orlando under 91.5 @ 1.85 SS

The Nets are still finding their rhythm at the start of the season, which makes sense given the massive roster overhaul and moving into a new arena. But honestly, that home loss against the Minnesota Timberwolves is the only real stumble they've had so far. Just a few days ago, they absolutely dismantled this same Orlando squad in Florida by 39 points, and that’s exactly why I’m making this pick. I don't see how the Magic can adjust to the Nets' winning formula in just a couple of days. Kris Humphries just played his best game of the season against them, which isn't surprising since the Magic interior is totally gutted after losing Dwight Howard. Orlando is going to have to completely rethink their system this year. Having Howard on the roster meant way more easy buckets, better looks from deep, and significantly more free throw attempts—which is a huge factor in the final score. In their last matchup against the Nets, Orlando only managed 8 free throws. To make things even weirder, not a single starter even stepped up to the line. The fact that the Magic didn't take a single free throw in the first half, while the Nets were clearly the more aggressive team, tells you everything you need to know about how that Florida game went. Even without anything particularly flashy from the backcourt duo of Russell Johnson and Williams, the Nets controlled the tempo. I just don't see how the power dynamic changes today.

Pinnacle is offering decent @1,741 ML on the Rockets. I guess James Harden is the story of the week in the league, but it's not just about him; the whole Rockets squad reacted really well to the season opener. They started with those two road wins in Detroit and against the Atlanta Hawks, then hit an unexpected snag losing their home opener to the Portland Trail Blazers. In all three games, they basically relied on pure talent and raw strength. There’s clearly a lack of chemistry, which is what Kevin McHale warned about. They’ve had a few days since the last game to look at the tape, and maybe we'll see some adjustments today—mostly on offense, because I don't think it's realistic to expect James Harden to carry everything forever. He's averaging over 40 minutes right now, which he almost never did back with the Oklahoma City Thunder last year. It might not be an issue this early in the season, but you have to keep him fresh, and I think that's what McHale is thinking about. Their wing positions are solid with some real blue-collar players, which is huge when you have guards like James Harden and Jeremy Lin who need that rebounding support to play at such a high tempo. Of course, we're back to the chemistry issue again. Averaging 20 turnovers through the first three games is a direct result of them not being in sync yet. On the bright side, the Rockets have dominated the boards in all three games. Averaging over 50 rebounds, including 17 offensive ones, gives them plenty of second-chance opportunities. Personally, I'm expecting more from Carlos Delfino on the offensive end today. That said, I wouldn't call this an easy night for the Rockets; they're facing a very good team that deserves respect. The Nuggets have dropped two games they really shouldn't have to start the season, losing to the 76ers and the Orlando Magic. To me, there are two main issues here: Andre Iguodala hasn't quite found his rhythm yet, and someone on the opposing roster seems to dominate the paint against them every single night—whether it's Chris Bosh, Anthony Davis, or Mario Chalmers. They have a pretty thin rotation, and they're playing on the second night of a back-to-back. Maybe a back-to-back isn't a dealbreaker this early in the year, but the fact that the Rockets have four days of rest and played their last game at home, while the Nuggets are playing on a back-to-back away from home, means they likely won't have the same level of freshness. That matters for how both these teams play.