It feels like we're constantly waiting for the "big names" to get back on the field just to feel secure. Is it even a real championship run if the depth isn't doing the heavy lifting while the superstars are sidelined?
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Posts by casualtiger2
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Sanctions on Russia
in War in Ukraine ·
The West threw money at Russia, sure—but it was all for nothing when you’re dealing with a mafia spread across the entire country that can flip the script whenever they feel like it
and just grab whatever they want.
Honestly, the real question is this: why didn't Russia take those $600 billion in reserves—plus the massive pile of stolen billions from the oligarchs
(with that little evil gnome's blessing, obviously)—along with the huge cash flow from energy and raw material exports, and actually use it for the good of the Russian people?
Why wasn't that money used to build up their own industry, infrastructure (outside of Moscow and St. Petersburg, anyway), tourism, or any other kind of partnership with the West?
and just grab whatever they want.
Honestly, the real question is this: why didn't Russia take those $600 billion in reserves—plus the massive pile of stolen billions from the oligarchs
(with that little evil gnome's blessing, obviously)—along with the huge cash flow from energy and raw material exports, and actually use it for the good of the Russian people?
Why wasn't that money used to build up their own industry, infrastructure (outside of Moscow and St. Petersburg, anyway), tourism, or any other kind of partnership with the West?
Sanctions on Russia
in War in Ukraine ·
brightheron64 said:Thomas Walker84 As stated by:
The G7 remains absolutely steadfast in its support for Ukraine, insisting that there be an unconditional withdrawal of all Russian forces from Ukrainian territory...
And now they’re all weeping over this conclusion, acting like the world is ending, as if they won't be the first ones raising their hands in victory by tomorrow morning...Thomas Walker84 As the user said...
The sanctions against Russia are only going to tighten their grip, and I expect we'll see a massive surge in oversight to crack down on any attempts at bypassing them...
When I look at the sanctions being leveled against everyone from North Korea to Iran and even Russia, I can't help but get this nagging feeling that they’re actually backfiring... It seems like they're just forcing these nations to huddle closer together, pushing them into this desperate survival mode where they'll invent just about anything to stay afloat. They start acting like frantic traveling merchants, trying to offload every scrap of raw material they have just to make a sale, while simultaneously doubling down on a drive for total self-sufficiency—which, if you think about it, ends up being the exact opposite of what the people imposing the sanctions actually intended...
Just to give you some perspective, North Korea—which, let’s be honest, was only kept from complete collapse by China—is now out there waving ballistic nuclear missiles around like they own the place... 😲 I might be totally off base here, but I can't help but think that if we hadn't gone down this path of constant sanctions from the start, North Korea probably wouldn't have evolved into such a massive nuclear threat...
It’s a similar situation with Iran, though unlike North Korea, they still have the ability to move oil under the radar if they play their cards right. You only have to look at how they've pivoted toward massive agricultural expansion after facing those rounds of chess moves and sanctions—they've actually managed to double their output. I can't help but wonder if they'll eventually make a truly smart, constructive move in that direction... because at the end of the day, humanity is going to need food far more than it will ever need oil...
So, let me give you a sense of how things actually look on the ground here in a highly developed Western nation like the US...Davor Romić: It’s honestly a bit disheartening to see that not a single one of those 34 irrigation projects is actually being utilized to its full potential..."
Russia isn't heading straight for North Korea's path, but they aren't exactly far off either.
Pretty soon we'll be seeing war bonds, planned economies, and everything else that follows that whole "self-sufficiency" drill. 😍
Here's an interesting deep dive into how realistic this self-sufficiency really is, along with a look at Russia's war economy and mid-term outlook.
Can Vladimir Putin beef up his military even further in 2023?
Sanctions on Russia
in War in Ukraine ·
It’s starting to slip. Slowly, but surely. 😍
USD - RUB
USD - RUB
Sanctions on Russia
in War in Ukraine ·
Nathan Evans78 said:"They’re installing barbed wire fences, deploying drones, and setting up surveillance cameras. Europe is being fortified."
The narrative I keep hearing is that Russia is going to be completely leveled—economically decimated, stripped of their oil, buses stalling out because of sanctions, gas exports drying up, a massive brain drain, an aging population left behind, just a collection of failing states everywhere, and potential debt defaults. It's supposed to be total chaos, absolute lockdowns on everything... yet, somehow, they’re still busy building fences.
Is there something our leaders in the EU aren't telling us about future migration plans, or did someone just grease some palms to secure a massive government contract for fencing? Honestly, if Russians and Belarusians actually intended to stage a mass exodus, it wouldn't happen this way. For heaven's sake, migrants aren't just mindless kids wandering aimlessly; they have access to information and know exactly how to navigate the system. ☕
Europe just wants to make sure its own citizens don't flee over to Russia.
Hey, dear Europeans—have you packed your bags yet?
Sanctions on Russia
in War in Ukraine ·
feralhawk45 said:I’m no economist, so I’ll just throw this out there... don't war costs and ramping up military production actually boost GDP since they count as massive spending?
Putin wants the West to think these sanctions aren't doing a thing. But honestly? Time is working against Russia.
...
The policy wonks out there bashing the sanctions keep pointing to those Russian Ministry of Finance forecasts predicting a measly 2.7% dip in their GDP—as if that proves the economy isn't taking a hit. But here's the catch: that GDP number includes the massive surge in arms production. A brand-new main battle tank gets rolled off the line, sent straight to the front, and then promptly taken out by a Ukrainian Javelin—that still counts as a win for the Russian GDP on paper.
...
Sanctions on Russia
in War in Ukraine ·
Anthony Hill5 said:What exactly can Russia manage to manufacture if they are cut off from Western components and high-end technology?
Take a look at this powerhouse, Scout
https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1...sodWAbq9DuBeog
It's nothing.
"Russes don't use Western physics—they use Tesla physics..."
The harder the sanctions hit, the faster Russia evolves—apparently.
The sky's the limit.
Sanctions on Russia
in War in Ukraine ·
RUSSIAN OILMAGEDDON 2023 | Crashing oil prices are gutting the Russian economy
I’m a little too lazy to explain this all out loud, so here’s the breakdown for anyone who doesn't feel like digging through the noise:
- Russia's entire budget basically hinges on selling oil and gas.
- Because of sanctions, their oil sales in 2022 dropped by over 20% compared to 2021.
- Things look even bleaker for 2023—since the European Union isn't buying anymore, they have to ship everything by sea (aside from those limited pipelines toward China),
which takes five to six times longer to transport, and volume is capped—plus, longer routes mean higher costs and more expensive shipping logistics.
- It’s the same story with gas. In 2022, sales were down 40% (ignoring the first half of the year when the European Union was busy filling up storage), and the pipelines to China and India
don't have nearly the capacity of the old ones to the European Union—not to mention LNG transport is even more restricted. The European Union will likely stop importing Russian gas entirely in 2023,
which is just going to make everything worse.
- On the flip side, oil and gas prices have been cut in half since their peak mid-year. Now, Russia HAS to sell what little they have left at $50 (even though the price cap is $60)—and they're selling to China and India at even cheaper rates, practically at the cost of production. Same goes for gas.
- Other sectors of their economy and industry are flatlining, most seeing at least a 20% dip compared to 2021, and 2023 could be even uglier.
- This hits the budget hard—the same budget that pays the salaries of about 30 million Russians. When you consider there's zero investment coming in—and there won't be, since the state is basically the only major investor left—and the budget was already running a deficit in 2022 (despite a decent first half), 2023 is looking grim, especially with the massive spending spike for the war.
- No new investment, a stagnant economy, and inflation is steadily climbing. For what it's worth, they have a decent director at their state bank—she almost quit back in February, but I assume they gave her the choice between staying or "taking a tea break" by the window—but even she can't fight basic economic laws.
- Right now, they're plugging the budget hole with reserves, but those are starting to dry up.
Conclusion: 2023 is going to be an economic disaster for Russia. If the war and sanctions drag into next year, things could get even worse—regardless of what the so-called Russophiles claim. They love to say Russia can fund this forever because they're resource-rich, or that Russians are used to suffering, or that everything is going according to some evil gnome's master plan.
The only thing that might save Russia is if they quickly lose the war in Ukraine!
We saw this coming at the start of the year—now, it's not just a prediction, it's actual data from 2022.
I’m a little too lazy to explain this all out loud, so here’s the breakdown for anyone who doesn't feel like digging through the noise:
- Russia's entire budget basically hinges on selling oil and gas.
- Because of sanctions, their oil sales in 2022 dropped by over 20% compared to 2021.
- Things look even bleaker for 2023—since the European Union isn't buying anymore, they have to ship everything by sea (aside from those limited pipelines toward China),
which takes five to six times longer to transport, and volume is capped—plus, longer routes mean higher costs and more expensive shipping logistics.
- It’s the same story with gas. In 2022, sales were down 40% (ignoring the first half of the year when the European Union was busy filling up storage), and the pipelines to China and India
don't have nearly the capacity of the old ones to the European Union—not to mention LNG transport is even more restricted. The European Union will likely stop importing Russian gas entirely in 2023,
which is just going to make everything worse.
- On the flip side, oil and gas prices have been cut in half since their peak mid-year. Now, Russia HAS to sell what little they have left at $50 (even though the price cap is $60)—and they're selling to China and India at even cheaper rates, practically at the cost of production. Same goes for gas.
- Other sectors of their economy and industry are flatlining, most seeing at least a 20% dip compared to 2021, and 2023 could be even uglier.
- This hits the budget hard—the same budget that pays the salaries of about 30 million Russians. When you consider there's zero investment coming in—and there won't be, since the state is basically the only major investor left—and the budget was already running a deficit in 2022 (despite a decent first half), 2023 is looking grim, especially with the massive spending spike for the war.
- No new investment, a stagnant economy, and inflation is steadily climbing. For what it's worth, they have a decent director at their state bank—she almost quit back in February, but I assume they gave her the choice between staying or "taking a tea break" by the window—but even she can't fight basic economic laws.
- Right now, they're plugging the budget hole with reserves, but those are starting to dry up.
Conclusion: 2023 is going to be an economic disaster for Russia. If the war and sanctions drag into next year, things could get even worse—regardless of what the so-called Russophiles claim. They love to say Russia can fund this forever because they're resource-rich, or that Russians are used to suffering, or that everything is going according to some evil gnome's master plan.
The only thing that might save Russia is if they quickly lose the war in Ukraine!
We saw this coming at the start of the year—now, it's not just a prediction, it's actual data from 2022.
Sanctions on Russia
in War in Ukraine ·
Frank Davis3 said:What's even the point of this post? It’s blindingly obvious we're looking at data from 2021, and since then, the Ruble has climbed, which naturally bumps up the Russian GDP when you measure it in dollars.
Well, there are plenty of ways to read this—pick whichever one fits your vibe:
- Russian GDP is growing, so they're doing great—their standard of living is about to hit legendary levels
- Not just living well, but actually becoming more competitive than the West
- The ruble is getting so strong everyone from here to Timbuktu is fighting over it
- Sanctions are a total bust
- The evil gnome wins a Nobel Prize for boosting the Russian economy
- Everything is going exactly according to the evil gnome's master plan—pure 5D chess moves
Sanctions on Russia
in War in Ukraine ·
Frank Davis3 said:Yeah, Russia's nominal GDP climbed mainly because the Ruble strengthened against the Dollar.
If they keep this up, they might actually overtake the USA—Top 20 countries by GDP in 2021
They totally missed the mark here, though—Top 20 countries by GDP per capita in 2021
Sanctions on Russia
in War in Ukraine ·
Timothy Nelson5 said:The title doesn't really mean much, I guess.
The real question is whether any modern nation-state will actually still exist by 2084.
As for Russia... maybe we should just be asking if they’ll survive until 2024.
Readers might pick up on the fact that this is an allusion to Andrei Amalrik’s 1969 essay, "Will the Soviet Union Survive Until 1984?",
which was itself a nod to that famous Orwellian novel.
Much like Amalrik’s question about the future of the Soviet Union, this inquiry centers on future foreign relations and the territorial integrity of Russia. It predicts that a Russian defeat in Ukraine will likely trigger domestic chaos—something potentially equal to or greater than what happened when the Soviet Union collapsed. This would accelerate a shift where China, Turkey, the European Union, and NATO replace Russia as the primary centers of influence for their so-called "near abroad" in Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. Domestic unrest could also act as a catalyst for parts of Russia to break away, similar to the dissolution of the Soviet Union. While Russia is a millenary civilization and won't just vanish like the ideologically driven Soviet Union did, it could shrink as a multinational state. As a result of military failure, political chaos at home, economic struggles, and ongoing demographic decline, Russia's borders could implode to the point of looking like they did in the late 16th century—what Americans might call a period of total upheaval.
...
Anyway, here's a really solid analysis of how things might actually play out.
Sanctions on Russia
in War in Ukraine ·
Russian mobile calls and internet speeds are tanking now that Nokia and Ericsson are gone
It feels like we're sliding right back into the 1900s—slowly but surely.
It feels like we're sliding right back into the 1900s—slowly but surely.
Sanctions on Russia
in War in Ukraine ·
The Commission is rolling out its ninth round of sanctions against Russia
The Commission just dropped the proposals for the ninth package of sanctions targeting Russia. Ursula von der Leyen put it bluntly: "Russia keeps devastating Ukraine. Their attacks are specifically hitting civilians and civilian infrastructure—trying to paralyze the country just as winter sets in. We’re standing with Ukraine, and we’ll make sure Russia pays for its crimes.”
Josep Borrell, the High Representative and Commission Vice President, noted that Putin isn't just weaponizing hunger anymore—now he's using the winter itself. This ninth package is designed to hit the specific sectors critical to Russia's brutal war effort in Ukraine.
After eight previous rounds showing real impact, this ninth move is all about turning up the heat. Here’s the breakdown:
- The blacklist is expanding to nearly 200 individuals and entities—think Russian military units, specific officers, defense industry firms, members of the State Duma and the Federation Council, ministers, governors, and political parties. As von der Leyen pointed out: "The list includes those playing key roles in Russia's deliberate missile strikes on civilians, the kidnapping of Ukrainian children, and the theft of Ukrainian agricultural goods."
- Sanctions hitting three more Russian banks. This includes a total ban on transactions with the Russian regional development bank, aimed at drying up Putin's cash flow even further.
- New export controls and restrictions, particularly on dual-use items—stuff like chemical precursors, nerve agents, and the electronic/IT components the Russian war machine relies on.
- Cutting off Russia's access to all types of drones and UAVs. The proposal suggests banning the direct export of drone engines to Russia, while also blocking exports to third countries, like Iran, that might be funneling them to Moscow.
- More hits against the Russian propaganda machine: pulling broadcasting licenses for four more media channels and shutting them out of other platforms too.
- Further economic pressure on Russia's energy and mining sectors, including a ban on any new mining investments within Russia.
This ninth package builds on the EU's total ban on seaborne Russian oil imports—which kicked in this week—and the global price cap agreed upon by the G7. Von der Leyen wrapped it up by saying: "International cohesion in facing the Russian war has never been stronger. We are united and determined.”
The Commission just dropped the proposals for the ninth package of sanctions targeting Russia. Ursula von der Leyen put it bluntly: "Russia keeps devastating Ukraine. Their attacks are specifically hitting civilians and civilian infrastructure—trying to paralyze the country just as winter sets in. We’re standing with Ukraine, and we’ll make sure Russia pays for its crimes.”
Josep Borrell, the High Representative and Commission Vice President, noted that Putin isn't just weaponizing hunger anymore—now he's using the winter itself. This ninth package is designed to hit the specific sectors critical to Russia's brutal war effort in Ukraine.
After eight previous rounds showing real impact, this ninth move is all about turning up the heat. Here’s the breakdown:
- The blacklist is expanding to nearly 200 individuals and entities—think Russian military units, specific officers, defense industry firms, members of the State Duma and the Federation Council, ministers, governors, and political parties. As von der Leyen pointed out: "The list includes those playing key roles in Russia's deliberate missile strikes on civilians, the kidnapping of Ukrainian children, and the theft of Ukrainian agricultural goods."
- Sanctions hitting three more Russian banks. This includes a total ban on transactions with the Russian regional development bank, aimed at drying up Putin's cash flow even further.
- New export controls and restrictions, particularly on dual-use items—stuff like chemical precursors, nerve agents, and the electronic/IT components the Russian war machine relies on.
- Cutting off Russia's access to all types of drones and UAVs. The proposal suggests banning the direct export of drone engines to Russia, while also blocking exports to third countries, like Iran, that might be funneling them to Moscow.
- More hits against the Russian propaganda machine: pulling broadcasting licenses for four more media channels and shutting them out of other platforms too.
- Further economic pressure on Russia's energy and mining sectors, including a ban on any new mining investments within Russia.
This ninth package builds on the EU's total ban on seaborne Russian oil imports—which kicked in this week—and the global price cap agreed upon by the G7. Von der Leyen wrapped it up by saying: "International cohesion in facing the Russian war has never been stronger. We are united and determined.”
Sanctions on Russia
in War in Ukraine ·
Regarding those fake referendums held in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories and the subsequent annexations,
The European Council adopted the eighth sanctions package on October 6, 2022. Here’s the breakdown of what’s included:
- Expanding restrictions to hit anyone organizing or pushing those sham referendums in the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions—plus high-ranking officials in the Russian Department of Defense, folks supplying weapons or gear to the Russian military, anyone involved in the announced mobilizations, and actors spreading war disinformation
- Loosening the criteria for blacklisting individuals—basically making it easier to target people involved in evasion transactions
- Adding more Russian products to the import ban (think steel, pulp and paper, cigarettes, plastics, cosmetics, and even stuff used in jewelry like gemstones and precious metals)
- Extending export bans on aircraft parts, electronics, chemicals, and goods that could be used for capital punishment, torture, or other cruel and inhuman treatment
- Widening the list of goods that might help boost Russia's military tech or its defense and security sectors
- A total ban on selling, buying, transferring, or exporting civilian firearms, their essential parts, and ammo—as well as military vehicles, equipment, paramilitary gear, and spare parts
- Blacklisting the US Coast Guard—well, effectively adding the Russian maritime registry to the list of state companies you just can't do business with
- Banning European Union citizens from sitting on the boards of certain Russian state-owned companies
- A full ban on providing crypto wallets, accounts, or custodial services to Russian citizens and residents, regardless of how much crypto they're holding
- Banning architectural, engineering, IT consulting, and legal services for Russia
- Expanding the embargo from Donetsk and Luhansk to include regions in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts that aren't under government control
There's also a ban on shipping crude oil by sea (starting December 5, 2022) or petroleum products (starting February 5, 2023) from Russia to third countries—this includes technical assistance, intermediary services, or financing related to the transport if the purchase price per barrel tops $60. The European Council set that "price cap" level back on December 3, 2022.
The European Council adopted the eighth sanctions package on October 6, 2022. Here’s the breakdown of what’s included:
- Expanding restrictions to hit anyone organizing or pushing those sham referendums in the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions—plus high-ranking officials in the Russian Department of Defense, folks supplying weapons or gear to the Russian military, anyone involved in the announced mobilizations, and actors spreading war disinformation
- Loosening the criteria for blacklisting individuals—basically making it easier to target people involved in evasion transactions
- Adding more Russian products to the import ban (think steel, pulp and paper, cigarettes, plastics, cosmetics, and even stuff used in jewelry like gemstones and precious metals)
- Extending export bans on aircraft parts, electronics, chemicals, and goods that could be used for capital punishment, torture, or other cruel and inhuman treatment
- Widening the list of goods that might help boost Russia's military tech or its defense and security sectors
- A total ban on selling, buying, transferring, or exporting civilian firearms, their essential parts, and ammo—as well as military vehicles, equipment, paramilitary gear, and spare parts
- Blacklisting the US Coast Guard—well, effectively adding the Russian maritime registry to the list of state companies you just can't do business with
- Banning European Union citizens from sitting on the boards of certain Russian state-owned companies
- A full ban on providing crypto wallets, accounts, or custodial services to Russian citizens and residents, regardless of how much crypto they're holding
- Banning architectural, engineering, IT consulting, and legal services for Russia
- Expanding the embargo from Donetsk and Luhansk to include regions in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts that aren't under government control
There's also a ban on shipping crude oil by sea (starting December 5, 2022) or petroleum products (starting February 5, 2023) from Russia to third countries—this includes technical assistance, intermediary services, or financing related to the transport if the purchase price per barrel tops $60. The European Council set that "price cap" level back on December 3, 2022.
Sanctions on Russia
in War in Ukraine ·
Russian crude is trading at $52—well under the proposed price cap
According to Bloomberg, Russian Urals crude is currently hovering around $52 a barrel. That’s a massive gap—over $10 less than the bottom end of the $65–$70 range suggested by the G7-EU-UK price cap mechanism.
The G7 and EU haven't officially pulled the trigger yet, but the price cap mechanism and the EU's maritime embargo on Russian crude are set to kick in in less than two weeks, on December 5th.
According to Bloomberg, Russian Urals crude is currently hovering around $52 a barrel. That’s a massive gap—over $10 less than the bottom end of the $65–$70 range suggested by the G7-EU-UK price cap mechanism.
The G7 and EU haven't officially pulled the trigger yet, but the price cap mechanism and the EU's maritime embargo on Russian crude are set to kick in in less than two weeks, on December 5th.
Sanctions on Russia
in War in Ukraine ·
So, what’s the deal with Russian oil? Europe is finally cutting ties with Russian crude
Sanctions on Russia
in War in Ukraine ·
gentlestag15 said:It’s pretty wild how gas prices today are basically sitting right where they were before the invasion started.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas
Oil is actually trading a bit lower than it was pre-invasion, too.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil
And yet, you had a whole crowd of people here trying to sell us on the idea of Europe collapsing or some other nonsense.😁
This definitely plays a role too.
Natural gas storage levels - Gas storage
EU - 92% (1026 TWh)
Belgium - 100%
Denmark - 99.8%
France - 98.7% (131 TWh)
Poland - 98.3%
USA - 96.2% (4.6 TWh)
Germany - 95.6% (235 TWh)
Italy - 93.9% (182 TWh)
Netherlands - 92.9% (129 TWh)
Spain - 92.5%
Romania - 91.3%
Slovakia - 89.5%
Czech Republic - 89.3%
Portugal - 87.6%
Austria - 86.2%
Canada - 78.7%
Sanctions on Russia
in War in Ukraine ·
@Chris Williams
Everything you’re saying here has already been debunked on this forum—more than once.
Russia still has enough cash to keep fighting for maybe another two years,
though honestly, they’ll probably collapse both militarily and economically within a year.
Europe is going to hit a pretty serious crisis, but things should normalize in a year or two.
Catch you in a year.
PS
There won't be any negotiations until that evil little gnome retreats from Ukraine (which means getting out of Crimea, too).
Everything you’re saying here has already been debunked on this forum—more than once.
Russia still has enough cash to keep fighting for maybe another two years,
though honestly, they’ll probably collapse both militarily and economically within a year.
Europe is going to hit a pretty serious crisis, but things should normalize in a year or two.
Catch you in a year.
PS
There won't be any negotiations until that evil little gnome retreats from Ukraine (which means getting out of Crimea, too).