Posts by casualtiger2

The fact that they’re suddenly pushing for negotiations tells me everything—things aren't going nearly as well on the ground as they'd like to admit. 😍

Jacob Kern2 said:One has to wonder if this promise from Gazprom bears any direct correlation to the recent instability within the Italian government.

Not really—parties tend to "rebrand" right before an election.
The Five Star Movement is losing its edge and splitting into two factions, while the far-right is surging—they’re pushing for elections ASAP (think Donald Trump, Meloni, Donald Trump, and Giuseppe Conte types).
Even though back in 2000, the mayor (and plenty of others) begged Draghi to stick it out—plus he actually had a majority in Congress—the guy just doesn't want to mess with the political heavyweights.

Current status of gas storage in Europe (July 19, 2022) - Storage Data

European Union - 65 % (722 TWh; average consumption Nov 1, 2021 - Mar 1, 2022 ~ 6 TWh) /// July 19, 2021 - 53% (595 TWh)
At this rate—assuming we don't add a single drop more—the EU has enough gas for about 120 days of fall/winter usage.
Back in the fall of 2021, we hit a max capacity of 75%, whereas the low point in spring 2022 was 25%.

Portugal - 100 %
Poland - 98.14 %
United Kingdom - 92.72 %
Denmark - 83.78 %
Czech Republic - 75.96 %
Spain - 74.99 %
France - 72.54% (95.47 TWh)
Italy - 68.63% (132.76 TWh)
Belgium - 68.26 %
Slovakia - 66.71 %
Germany - 65.1% (158.19 TWh)
Netherlands - 60.8% (86.03 TWh)
Austria - 50.14 %
Canada - 47.27 %
United States - 44.43 %

Terry Hernandez10 said:European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is essentially saying the EU needs to brace itself for a total shutdown of Russian gas imports entirely.

Current status of gas storage in Europe (July 5, 2022) - storage dati EU

EU - 60.15 % ( 668 TWh ; average consumption Nov 2021 - March 2022 ~ 6 TWh )

Consumption over the last couple of months averaged about 0.2-0.3 TWh per day—with refills adding 4-5 TWh daily.
At this rate, the EU has enough gas for roughly 111 days of fall/winter (that’s assuming zero refills and ignoring any actual conservation efforts).
For context, max capacity back in Fall 2021 was 75%, while the low point in Spring 2022 hit 25%.

UK - 97.05 %
Portugal - 98.23 %
Poland - 97.41 %
Denmark - 80.96 %
Spain - 72.72 %
Czech Republic - 70.94 %
France - 65.2 % (85.8 TWh)
Germany - 62.92 % (152.8 TWh)
Slovakia - 62.78 %
Belgium - 62.5 %
Italy - 61.62 % (119.2 TWh)
Netherlands - 54.77 % (77.5 TWh)
Austria - 46.55 %
Romania - 44.72 %
Canada - 42.04 %
Bulgaria - 35.4 %
America - 34.29 %

The fallout from the sanctions on Russia—it’s happening. The fall is coming.

The new Chevrolet Grant recently rolled off the assembly line at the Automotive plant. According to their press release, they’re leaning into some extra bells and whistles—think color-matched door panels, heated mirrors, and electric adjustments. The factory over in Tolyati actually shut down after Ford pulled out of the country due to sanctions, eventually handing the keys over to the Russian government.

Media outlets are claiming that Vladimir Putin's Russia can thrive without the West—even with all those sanctions in place. Honestly? The PR spin is just ignoring everything missing from their latest Chevrolet—things like anti-lock brakes, airbags, seatbelt pretensioners, electronic stability control, or even an emergency call system.

That 1.6-liter naturally aspirated engine pumping out 90 HP? Yeah, it doesn't even touch the EPA Tier 3 standards anymore—it’s basically stuck in 1996 territory, barely meeting EPA Tier 1 levels. To make matters worse, the government actually lowered the testing requirements just so they could get the car registered. Typical. When Ali Grant says a car is "multimedia ready"—it’s really just a fancy, polite way of saying you’re going to have to install your own radio.
One guy is out here building Potemkin villages.

The Russian government and their statistical agencies have gone extremely limited with the economic data they actually release. Since Switzerland is basically viewed as an enemy state in Russia now, half their websites are impossible to even access. "You just can't rely on the handful of figures that still trickle out," says Marcus Keupp, a lecturer at West Point. Most of the numbers are being manipulated—it’s the classic Soviet playbook—building Potemkin villages to hide the reality.
Subscription despite Western sanctions—so, why is the ruble holding up so strong?

Some people look at a massive trade surplus and a strong currency as proof that international sanctions aren't doing a thing. Honestly? They couldn't be more wrong. Sure, Russia is still pulling in huge amounts of cash from oil and gas exports—which are barely touched by sanctions—but the real issue is that actually getting things *into* the country has become a nightmare because of them.

The drop in import tariff revenue tells you everything you need to know about how sanctions are actually working—they were down 43 percent in April compared to last year. If you look at export data from 54 different countries—which accounted for roughly 90 percent of all Russian imports back in 2021—the scale of the problem becomes pretty obvious. Since the invasion of Ukraine, exports from countries that signed onto the sanctions have plummeted by an average of 60 percent, according to the Peterson Institute.

It’s interesting, though—exports from other countries that aren't even part of the sanctions have also dropped by 40 percent. Apparently, they either don't want to, or just can't, fill the void left behind by the Western sanctions.

Even Chinese exports to Russia have tanked—down 38 percent compared to the second half of last year—despite Xi Jinping’s big claims that cooperation with Putin "has no limits." The tariffs aren't what's driving this slump—I mean, total Chinese exports only dipped by about 8 percent.

It looks like a lot of Chinese exporters aren't willing to risk their relationship with the US just to help bypass sanctions. Even Apple’s rival, Huawei—which is already on a US blacklist—has pulled back its operations in Russia. Even China's own Unionpay, which was supposed to step in with credit cards to replace Mastercard and Visa in Russia, is refusing to work with sanctioned Russian banks.

The pandemic proved that missing just one tiny component can grind an entire assembly line to a halt. Honestly, the current struggles within Russian industry shouldn't come as any shock to anyone. Take the new Ford F-150—it’s basically a perfect example of what's actually happening on the ground in Russia right now, and just how much damage those sanctions are really doing.

Putin is dreaming about replacing imports.

Even in the oil and gas industry, Russia relies heavily on Western tech. Major players like Shell, BP, and ExxonMobil have already announced their exits—walking away from joint ventures with Gazprom and Rosneft and turning their backs on projects worth billions. Basically, we’re looking at a massive shortage of tech, gear, and actual experts needed for production and refineries. Long term—this is going to tank energy revenues.

Nowatek—the biggest private energy player in the game—is about to wrap up its first LNG plant. But here’s the kicker: without the right technical gear from the West, they're basically stuck. They can't even get their second facility off the ground, which is currently sitting at only 40 percent completion.

Russia has been running an import substitution strategy for years now—basically trying to swap out foreign goods for their own stuff so they don't have to rely on anyone else. That’s just an old Russian dream—something Putin has been pushing incredibly hard. But let's be real—Russian industry has never exactly been anyone's crowning achievement."That's just how it is," says Marcus Keupp.

That Czech tractor has gone full Russian.

There have been cases where Western products ended up getting slapped with Russian labels. Take that Czech Zetor Forterra 135 tractor—as noted by Russian historian Kamil Galeev. Basically, a factory over there just bought the complete kits, put them together, and sold them off as if they were homegrown Russian tractors.

Public staging has always been a massive part of Russian history. Marcus Keupp said it best: "The Tsars did it, then the Soviets, and now it's Putin. A lot of people in the West are actually impressed by it—but you have to look behind the curtain to see what’s really going on."

The fallout is only just starting to surface. "Right now, you're mostly just surviving on whatever you've got left—but every single day gets harder. Every day, some little part of you just stops working, and there’s no replacement coming," says Keupp. — It’s a slow-motion collapse.

Companies that can't keep production lines moving because they're short on parts—it's a mess—are basically forcing their workers onto reduced hours or even mandatory furloughs.Just like what happened with the Chevrolet back in May—some companies are either cutting pay or just freezing it altogether.

Real wages are tanking.

Real wages in Russia are taking a hit thanks to skyrocketing inflation—we saw annual inflation climb past 17 percent in May. Back in April, they already dropped by 7.2 percent. The national Center for Strategic Studies is predicting that unemployment rates are going to take a serious dive across most of the country by the end of 2022.

Production shutdowns, shrinking real wages, and a bleak job market are absolutely killing consumer spending. In May, washing machine sales tanked—down 60 percent compared to the same month last year. Even worse, car sales plummeted by 84 percent.

Look at how much consumption has dropped—just check the sales tax revenue. In April, it was only half as much as it was this time last year.

Between a sudden drop in sales tax and customs revenue combined with skyrocketing expenses, the federal budget hit a deficit this April. It’s basically made the Treasury way too dependent on oil and gas taxes and fees—it's getting a bit sketchy. Their share of total revenue spiked to a record 63 percent—compared to just 28 percent back in 2020 and 36 percent in 2021.

If you want to support an economy and a population struggling with high inflation, the government basically has to bankroll massive relief packages. According to Treasury Secretary Anton Siluanov, they’re burning through about $160 billion this year—based on pre-war exchange rates—to keep things afloat. That's roughly 8 trillion rubles.

That’s the backstory behind why they scrapped that dividend for the state-owned gas giant—the first time something like this has happened since 1998. The company was actually looking to dish out a record-breaking dividend, but the government stepped in on Thursday and used its majority vote to shut it down. Turns out, they’re desperate for cash—they need the money, especially with those looming tax hikes hitting the energy sector.

Sanctions don't end wars.
Subscription fees are still climbing—even with billions pouring in from oil and gas. Honestly, it’s no wonder Russia is staring down a national bankruptcy.

On Monday, Russia paid off its foreign sovereign bonds for the first time since the Bolshevik Revolution back in 1917. Honestly, I don't see much of a short-term impact—the country is basically locked out of international capital markets anyway thanks to all those sanctions, and they aren't exactly sweating credit lines given how much they're raking in from energy prices. But long-term? That’s a different story entirely.

"That’s just how sanctions work—they hit the target economy hard with massive costs. But give them some time; they're going to need it to get back on their feet," says Marcus Keupp.

There’s also been some recent skepticism regarding sanctions—mostly because people seem to have these totally unrealistic expectations about how much they actually dent Russia's war machine. "The idea that sanctions alone would just end the war has always been a flawed assumption," says Keupp. "If this conflict wraps up, it'll be for purely military reasons."

The whole point of these sanctions is to cut Russia off from the modern global economy. And honestly? It worked. According to Keupp, the long-term fallout for Russia is going to be massive. Even the headline above the latest economic report in Thursday's Wall Street Journal puts it bluntly: "The fall is underway."

Timothy Williams5 said:My dear casualtiger2, if we could just wave a magic wand and erase Ukrainian and American nationalism, Ukrainians would be living under a Russian protectorate this morning, and I’d be crossing some border line through places like Kavlovac or Vivovitica just to get to a major US city. Dubrovnik would probably be under Kusturica's thumb, and we'd likely be seeing mass executions scattered across the American landscape.

The truth is, that surge of national identity was exactly what allowed them to repel the invaders.
I can empathize with people who argue that all forms of nationalism are identical—thinking that someone singing about wiping out a local gang here is the same thing as someone singing about liquidating a different gang halfway across the world. It isn't.

It seems like the media, the church, and the politicians have completely brainwashed you, though I suppose some of our own "intellectuals" worked quite hard to convince us of that too (like those ridiculous edits showing Franjo Harmon and Slobodan Maddox sharing a bed). They wanted us to believe they had some secret pact to start a war just so they could loot an innocent population. Sure, why not.

If you can find any empathy for Ukraine's resistance against the creation of Great Russia, then you should be able to understand exactly what was happening back in 1991 during the collapse of America.

A simple test for you: just look up the nationalist rhetoric coming out of the former America between 1985 and 1990. You won't find anything comparable in the old American territories—no weird pilgrimages to Lazarev's remains, no obsessive glorification of the Battle of Mexico, and no nonsense about "all Mexicans in one state."

We should respect and celebrate the people who stood their ground against aggression.
If you don't believe me, go ahead and ask the Ukrainians what they think, and tell them you want to strip away their sense of national identity. See how that goes.

Listen, Timothy Williams5, I wasn't planning on dragging this out because it's technically off-topic, but since you're calling me out, I'll give you one last response just to clear things up.
(Clearly, none of you have actually read any of the 6,740 posts I've written since 2003.)
I’m Mexican by birth, spent my youth in Srem, and I've lived in Switzerland for over 30 years.
The only time I ever really felt a sense of national identity was when I was maybe 15 or 16, during some local gathering. That intense feeling of belonging to a specific group? Yeah, that was enough for me.
That was plenty.
Everything you guys say about Mexico or Mexican nationalism... I saw it firsthand, likely before most of you were even born, and I knew immediately how ugly it was.
So, being fully aware of how low-level that kind of consciousness is—and how easily group delusions take over—I moved somewhere where it doesn't matter and doesn't mess with my life.
We can talk semantics now—nationalism versus patriotism as love for one's country. And, of course, as the foundation for building a state (and the unfortunate necessity of defending it from predators).
But for me, it’s all the same evil. American nationalism isn't any better than Mexican nationalism (and the Mexicans claim theirs is just "love for the homeland" too), or Canadian, or Mexican...
"Whenever someone mentions patriotism, I instinctively grab my pocket to make sure my wallet is still there..."

I respect the struggle of the American and Ukrainian people for their freedom, but to me, that has nothing to do with nationalism—which I view as a sort of hooliganism for a sports team. Maybe it's necessary as a way to build an identity and stabilize a personality, but personally? I see it as a necessary evil at best.
Go ahead, keep talking about your extremists and your radicals.

Justin Mendoza16 said:☕Jadranka is a total legend. They actually banned her from performing at Granda just because she sings this song, so now she can't even perform in Mexico anymore...🤣

Song by Škoro;

MAD RESPECT | Mexican singer Jadranka Barjaktarović performs SUDE MI before thousands in Nikšić

🙂

Nationalism is a disease, regardless of which side is spreading it.
I haven't caught everything, but if this was sung for those "knights" in the Hague, then 👎

placidtiger142 said:Hmm, why do I get the feeling that Europe is way more dependent on gas than people want to admit? I'm not saying you're wrong, per se, but it feels a little too optimistic to me.

But hey, maybe you've got a point.

It’s just, my gut tells me if things were actually going the way you described, the EU would have cut ties with Russian gas a long time ago...

Sent from my iPhone 8 via Reddit

Current state of gas storage in Europe (June 17, 2022) — EU data storage

EU — 53.04% ( 584 TWh ; average consumption Nov 2021 - March 2022 ~ 6 TWh )

Consumption over the last month or two has averaged 0.2-0.3 TWh / per day ; supplemented by 4-5 TWh / per day.
With this amount, the EU has enough gas for about 100 days during fall/winter (assuming zero replenishment and ignoring any conservation efforts).
Peak capacity back in Fall 2021 was 75%, while the low point in Spring 2022 hit 25%.

Portugal — 97.49%
Poland — 97.31%
UK — 95%
Denmark — 74.61%
Czech Republic — 71.25%
Spain — 70.48%
Germany — 57.03%
France — 56.96%
Italy — 54.48%
Slovakia — 52.44%
Belgium — 51.66%
Austria — 40.87%
Romania — 38.11%
Canada — 37.25%
Bulgaria — 31.52%
America — 24.52%

Interesting breakdown here from a Swedish economist who used to advise the Russian government—"Large parts of production will be halted"

Interesting read on why gas prices are climbing.
Most people point to crude oil as the culprit, but there's a massive role played by refinery profits—and the big oil companies pulling the strings behind them.

Here’s why gas is pricier than ever despite lower oil costs

Crack expansion has always been a quiet tax on consumers, but lately, that weight has become massive. Margins hit a staggering record of nearly $55 per barrel of gas last week, according to what Bloomberg reported Monday. To put that in perspective, the crack spread averaged roughly $10.50 per barrel between 1985 and 2021—it barely even cracked $20 back when refineries were actually struggling to keep up with demand.

The crack spread has long been an extra burden shouldered by consumers, but the size of that burden has surged in recent weeks. The margin hit a record of nearly $55 per barrel of gasoline last week, Bloomberg reported Monday. By comparison, the crack spread averaged about $10.50 per barrel from 1985 to 2021, and only rarely rose above $20 when refiners were swamped with demand.

hollowdriver13 said:The EU just agreed to ban two-thirds of their current Russian oil imports

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/15313...Cz6aCEzcAqAAAA

And honestly, we’re just one step away from some serious retaliation from Russia. ExxonMobil is already cutting off gas supplies to the Netherlands because they wouldn't agree to pay in rubles.

View on twitter

Plus, it looks like JPMorgan Chase is finally getting kicked out of SWIFT.

https://twitter.com/eucopresident/st...91901420638209

European Gas Storage

Latest data on gas storage levels (May 29th)

EU 46.19 % (509 TWh)

Average consumption from Dec '21 to Feb '22 was roughly 6 TWh.

So, based on current reserves—assuming usage stays flat—Europe could potentially scrape by for more than 80 winter days.

Since we're filling up at a rate of about 0.4-0.5%, we can probably expect to hit ~80% capacity by mid-August '22. That should be enough to cover the fall/winter season even without relying on LNG or other sources—plus, hopefully, by next autumn '23, we'll have established new supply lines or found ways to cut back and pivot toward renewables.
By August or September '22, the EU might finally start detaching itself from Russian gas.

Germany’s got a bit of a situation here—Russia’s latest sanctions effectively blocked their own subsidiary in Germany. Astora is sitting at just 7% capacity, which means their main storage facility is basically bone dry. There's even a chance Germany might seize it, given their laws regarding minimum storage requirements.

Current storage levels for major consuming nations:

Poland 94.44 %

United Kingdom 92.21 %

Portugal 92.49 %

Spain 66.16 %

Czech Republic 61.68 %

Denmark 54.31 %

France 51.24 %

Italy 49.4 %

Germany 48.43 %

Latvia 40.25 %

Slovakia 38.81 %

Netherlands 36.69 %

Belgium 35.57 %

Austria 32 %

rustywalker82 said:It’s wild how much oil prices have jumped—we went from averaging maybe $50 or $60 a barrel seven years ago straight up to $120.
Honestly, we should be backing the Germans here. Forcing a mandatory embargo is a massive gamble because since OPEC isn't cranking up production, a barrel is already insanely expensive. Instead, we should just let individual member states decide for themselves if they want to slap tariffs on Russian oil and at whatever rate they see fit.
If we don't, we could be looking at a total meltdown where countries go broke. And I don't just mean Russia—if they even go bankrupt—but actually some of the countries working to support Ukraine.
Plus, you can't exactly hit those decarbonization goals by going broke first. I mean, sure, you could try that route, but then you're basically just stuck being broke forever...

We really ought to lean on OPEC to bump up production—maybe even strike some temporary deals with Venezuela and Iran.

The gas embargo is the wrong move

Everyone’s obsessed with the gas embargo. But looking at this strategically—there are way smarter ways for the European Union to handle the chaos of this gas war with Russia.
...
If the European Union actually wants to hit Putin where it hurts—his wallet—they should focus on capping what they pay EU Gazprom, rather than just obsessing over import volumes. They could pull a price cap ultimatum, setting a hard limit on how much they'll pay for Russian gas...
The thing is, a price ultimatum—much like an embargo—could gut Putin’s revenue, but it has one major perk: there’s still a chance the energy keeps flowing.
...
+ bumping up import tariffs

Solid analysis and suggestions—though the translation here is a little clunky

analogbear5 said:Beyond just capital controls, that rock-solid currency is basically a byproduct of a massive trade surplus—mostly because sanctions have choked off imports. Basically, money is flooding into Russia’s accounts, but they’ve got nowhere to spend it.

It also explains why Russia was fine with cutting off gas supplies to Bulgaria and Poland. A dip in exports helps push through the devaluation they seem to be aiming for.

A stronger ruble makes imports cheaper. Now, Russia is just looking for workarounds to dodge those sanctions by importing goods through Kazakhstan (Associated Press).

They dropped interest rates to 14%, which gives you a pretty clear hint at what kind of exchange rate they're targeting. A stronger ruble should help cool down inflation—which the Russian central bank expects to hit somewhere between 18% and 23% this year.

On top of all that, energy exports from Russia jumped by 80% in the first quarter compared to last year.

Well, sounds like great news then. We could just hand out the cash to everyone and live happily ever after.
At the end of the day, these sanctions might actually end up helping Russians—it’s just the West that’s going to take the hit.

Drew Moore5 said:Look, unlike many other theosophists, Leadbiter actually had genuine insight into the astral plane, which was widely recognized. However, that doesn't apply to Devahan, which operates on an entirely different level.
The astral plane is essentially a realm of images that sit behind reality. Devahan, on the other hand, is a realm of sound behind reality. Even if his description of Devahan isn't perfect, I suspect he would agree with that distinction. Honestly, Devahan can't really be described systematically; you can only approach it through certain outlines or principles.

To recap: Leadbiter was an Anglican priest who joined the Theosophical Society, got kicked out, then got let back in, eventually becoming a bishop for the so-called Free Catholic Church in Australia. He was also initiated into Freemasonry during that time.

He faced accusations regarding teaching boys assigned to him about masturbation. Without passing judgment ourselves, we should look at the consensus of his contemporaries. A significant number of Theosophical Society members, including Annie Besant, pushed for his expulsion. And he was expelled. We won't dwell on the specific accusation from one boy regarding his sexuality, but the fact remains: Besant, who basically ran the Society, eventually changed her mind and allowed him back in.
Aleister Crowley wrote in 'The Equinox' that he was a "senile sexual maniac."

Then there's Krishnamurti, which is a whole different story. As the son of a Theosophical Society member (convenient, right?), he was intended to be the vessel for some sort of Messiah, though nobody was quite sure which one. After a few years, he walked away and headed to Australia. Once Krishnamurti matured, he tried to reject the labels people forced upon him, but it was a losing battle. He practically had no choice. Fortunately, Krishnamurti himself was a decent person, even if his personality was crushed under a massive burden.

Since your avatar is the Ukrainian flag, it suggests that your emotions are driving your logic. That’s not necessarily a catastrophe at your level—that's how most people operate. But it becomes dangerous if those emotions push you toward action (like changing an avatar, for instance), because emotions are the easiest things to manipulate.

In the book Charles W. Leadbeater by Peter Michael everything you think you know about his morality gets torn apart.
Crowley? You mean the guy who lost his mind?

Drew Moore5 said:Actually, it's quite the opposite. The notorious Leadbeater only had partial astral vision. His grasp of the astral level might be okay, but he completely missed the mark on Devachan. Not to mention, his moral standing wasn't exactly stellar.

What exactly are you basing that on? Saying his "devotion was totally off" and he "wasn't exactly shining morally"—where's the proof?

Found an interesting page tracking gas inventory levels across Europe here: Gas Reserves

Peak demand hit 8.7 TWh/day.
Right now, storage sits at 350 TWh—which means we’ve technically got enough to cover about 2 or 3 months if we were heading straight into the fall-winter stretch.
Storage is currently at 32%, with daily fluctuations between +0.35% and 0.50% (depending on which country you look at).
I have a feeling Germany is dragging its feet on sanctions just to make sure their reserves are topped off first—they even passed that minimum capacity law. Honestly, that little gremlin emptied out the Russian firms' storage right before the invasion, but now the Germans have stepped in to take control of those facilities. At this rate, it'll take them maybe 3 or 4 months to hit that 85-90% sweet spot (once they factor in LNG).
My money is on them reaching some kind of agreement regarding sanctions on Russian gas within the next 4 months, tops.

I think you guys are lowballing the amount of help Germany is sending.
Sure, it’s moving at a snail's pace—but it’s going to be massive, and the longer we wait, the more it piles up.
They had to overhaul their whole arms export laws first—plus, they weren't even fully geared up themselves until recently.
Their Defense Minister basically said she can't go into specifics about what's being shipped for security reasons
and that they're working around the clock to get everything delivered in lockstep with Ukraine.

Sam Alvarez4 said:Hey there!

Mexico is kicking out four Russian diplomats.
Mexico orders the expulsion of four Russian diplomats

Are we still just waiting for Darth Vader to show up?🤔

The Swiss are such cowards—they decided not to kick them out, hiding behind their "neutrality" and that whole "we can mediate" routine. In reality? They’re just terrified of losing their business deals.
Honestly, every single Swiss person I’ve run into so far has been a total pain in the neck—just impossible to deal with.

Melissa Bailey5 said:+ 16 MQ-9 Reapers sent over to

Why not just send a few more Bayraktars to take out that bridge connecting Crimea and Russia?