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Posts by Gerald Chavez7

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Abolishing partial credit in Feedback & Suggestions ·
I don't really get what your problem is—you aren't even part of the Alternative crowd...

Kerefek76 said:Yeah... this crisis isn't happening because there’s an actual shortage of food, electricity, or gas—it's happening because the elite decided to manufacture a crisis at any cost.

Come autumn, they’ll roll out the vaccinations again, timed perfectly with the economic and energy crises to maximize the impact.

Kerefek76 said:I've already been labeled a COVID "conspiracy theorist" on other threads, but here we go again:
https://www.nti.org/wp-content/uploa...G48VO_JnJupjw8

The drill took place in March 2021. It simulated a biological attack involving monkeypox across two fictional countries. The start of this imaginary pandemic? May 2022.
And what are we seeing now? A monkeypox outbreak, exactly as outlined in the document.

What else does the document predict?
Expected duration—December 2023. 3.6 billion infected, 270 million dead. The real mess hits in 2023.

Download this document right now and watch how things unfold.
And please, spare me the "it's just a conspiracy theory" whining...
You have a document that spells out a monkeypox outbreak occurring at the exact moment it actually happened.

Kerefek76 said:Nothing happens before autumn—because it looks like Xi won't hold his re-election until then, which will cement him as the permanent leader of China following those 2018 law changes (remember, they scrapped the two-term limit).
Once that's done, anything goes, because Xi will have solidified his power enough to be practically untouchable. A conflict over Taiwan likely won't kick off before he secures that seat.
Meanwhile, Russia should be wrapping up its "special operation."
The Ukrainian military is already in shambles, so things could wrap up pretty quickly.
Poland is already eyeing Galicia and Lviv, while Canada is looking toward Transcarpathia and Mukachevo.
I'd go as far as to say Viktor Orbán is prepping for a quick move into Transcarpathia alongside the Poles under the guise of "restoring order" or some similar excuse.
The dismantling of Ukraine seems highly probable.
And in the meantime?
We have a very convenient distraction in the form of monkeypox. So everyone can stop posting Ukrainian flags and start posting monkey icons instead, I guess.

Kerefek76 said:It’s about time everyone starts realizing that nothing happens in a vacuum—especially when it’s being blasted all over the news. There is absolutely no such thing as a random, disconnected event.
The COVID pandemic, the financial crisis, US-China relations trade wars, the war in Ukraine, supply chain collapses, monkeypox, the carbon footprint agenda, the LGBTQ+ agenda, the GMO agenda, 5G/6G tech, electric self-driving cars, the BLM movement, abortion rights, woke culture, ISIS terrorists, and even the school shootings here in America (and most other "random" mass shootings).
You can't look at any one of these things in isolation; you have to look at the entire tapestry to actually grasp the patterns and the true objectives behind them.
The moderators here on the forum make a mistake—whether intentional or not—by strictly limiting discussions to a single topic. For instance, if there's a thread on the Economy, you aren't allowed to talk about the war in Ukraine or the LGBTQ+ agenda, and on a thread about the war in Ukraine, you can't pivot to COVID or the carbon footprint agenda. The mods and the resident agitators constantly shut that down, forcing everything into shallow, narrow conversations. You’ll see it all the time—on economic threads, geopolitics and demographic shifts that directly impact the market are ignored, and the discussion just ends with endless, useless "analyses" from our friend Sh@dow, who tries to pin everything on certain indices, monetary policy, or other trivial economic factors.
Of course, this is done on purpose—sometimes out of pure ignorance—to keep people compartmentalized. The economist stays in his box. The soldier stays in his. The doctor stays in his... and so on.
And it isn't just limited to this forum. It’s systemic throughout the entire education system. People are fed fragmented knowledge about how the world functions. The result is a bunch of know-it-alls who insist on imposing their hyper-limited worldview on everyone else. And thank God, we have plenty of those here on this forum.
Just to give a banal example... telecom experts (5G and whatnot) don't learn a single thing about biology or the electromagnetic nature of a cell tower, while doctors aren't taught anything about technical electromagnetism or how telecommunications actually work. Not even the basics. Absolutely nothing.
The result? Total fog regarding research into how 5G networks (and 4G, and all networks for that matter) affect the human body. Nobody knows anything because you have fanatics on both sides who simply cannot understand the other perspective.

Another example? Professional soldiers and strategists don't learn about economics, while economists don't learn about warfare. And neither group learns about biology, virology, or toxicology. This leads to a complete lack of understanding regarding current events. Everyone looks at COVID, the war in Ukraine, and the trade war with China from a few years back as isolated incidents, or at best, loosely connected ones. In reality, they are tightly linked through cause and effect. And don't even get me started on the seemingly impossible connections to, say, the LGBTQ+ agenda or electric vehicles.

My advice to everyone: start reading everything (not literally, obviously, but pick quality articles). Don't just stick to what interests you. It doesn't even matter if something is blatant propaganda or not. Every piece of information is useful. Stop wasting your time on mindless series and movies, repetitive TV shows, clickbait articles, and silly internet clips. Start watching documentaries on anything, reading professional papers on any subject, and actively following the geopolitical situation across all parts of the globe (roughly speaking, of course).
After a few years of doing that, you'll start to see the connections you once thought were impossible.

Eventually, you’ll just have that moment where everything clicks—you’ll intuitively grasp how the gears actually turn.
That's when people claim they've finally "woken up" and will never "sleep" again.


No, these aren't posts from the Alternative boards; they belong right here on the Economy section 😲 ...and I mean literally through hundreds, if not thousands, of posts (and unfortunately, I can still see your deleted ones). Every single year since roughly 2011, you’ve been predicting the total collapse of the US, falling even deeper into the rabbit hole.

You had a bit of luck throughout most of 2022, mostly because the main board didn't have any active moderation going on—Wand had basically checked out, and I was just sticking to the sub-sub-forums... But once boldcanyon14 stepped in, of course, he cleaned things up and we all agreed on the partial changes. The Economy section isn't going anywhere.
Moderator Replacement in Feedback & Suggestions ·
If you look at the moderator lists on most subreddits, they’re way longer than the actual group of people doing any real work.
Moderator Replacement in Feedback & Suggestions ·
It’s been about a year now since anyone actually bothered to moderate the Economy section (the main page)
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
brightheron64 said:The more we hear about them and dive into the details, the less sense this whole sanctions effectiveness thing makes to me... 🤷

The US is prepared to formally approve the transport and insurance for Russian grain and fertilizer exports
The US is ready to issue written permits to carriers and insurers to help smooth out the export of Russian grain and fertilizer, according to statements made on Tuesday by the US Ambassador to the United Nations, Linda Thomas-Greenfield.

While Russian grain and fertilizers aren't actually under US sanctions, Thomas-Greenfield pointed out that "companies are feeling a bit nervous," so the US is willing to provide written assurances just to give them the confidence they need...

Separately, UN spokesperson Stephan Dujarric noted on Tuesday that the head of UNCTAD, Rebeca Grynspan, held "constructive discussions" in Moscow with the Russian Deputy Prime Minister, Andrei Belousov, regarding the creation of conditions for the seamless export of Russian grain and fertilizers.


Given how much the prices for both have spiked lately, it looks like the Russians are going to end up making an extra windfall once again...

I mean, you can't really blame sanctions for hunger in Africa or the Middle East when it comes to Russian grain... We should just open up Ukrainian exports too and let the Russian stuff flow.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
wiredseal7 said:Oh yeah, they’re headed for a total collapse—just like what happened to the ruble a few months back.

Can a Russian actually walk into a bank and buy 10,000 euros or dollars? Like, say they sell their car, decide "thanks, I'll take that in hard currency instead," and head to a bank or an exchange bureau to swap their precious rubles for USD?
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Sure, importing stuff is generally a good move—unless you happen to subscribe to one of those rather outdated schools of economic thought 😉
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
GDP could plummet by 30% by year-end
https://twitter.com/RobinBrooksIIF/s...23028623237120

image

This projection assumes a total collapse in imports
Arming Ukraine in War in Ukraine ·
Carl Lee27 said:Belgium is sending over 200 anti-tank missiles, 5,000 rifles, and a decent amount of fuel to help out
https://twitter.com/thewarrage/statu...D19mZwFfw&s=19

It’s funny how the Belgians are also eyeing those M109 self-propelled howitzers—except the government doesn't actually own them. They belong to some private firm that bought them, likely just to flip them for a profit later.
Arming Ukraine in War in Ukraine ·
The bridge is likely heavily defended—it's basically the single most important strategic target the Russians have right now—so why waste expensive Bayraktars on a pure PR stunt?

Then again, if they manage to hit another fuel train like they did back in the early days over in Crimea, that’s a whole different story. 😁
Arming Ukraine in War in Ukraine ·
Thomas Nelson25 said:As soon as they control the borders—even with a war and refugees pouring through--
Those little groups with their various agendas and all that.
Basically, they have agencies dedicated entirely to that task.

But honestly? After the war, weapon proliferation could definitely be an issue—kind of like what we dealt with here in the States after our own conflicts. But hey, that’s a problem for future them. Right now, they're just trying to survive, and that only happens if they keep fighting.

It wouldn't matter if they didn't have a single Javelin or Stinger on hand. If some theoretical terrorist decides they want to buy MANPADS, they aren't going to care whether it's an Igla or a Stinger. Same goes for an RPG-22 versus an AT-4.
Arming Ukraine in War in Ukraine ·
jadescout12 said:Drug cartels are going to absolutely love these new toys.
It’s also got some EU candidates in the mix, like the IRA or the Korzikanci.
I bet the clueless politicians will be scratching their heads all over again.

So, basically, we managed to stop MANPADS proliferation during the chaos in Libya—even though they had the most advanced Igla systems at the time—but now we're just going to let Ukraine start shuffling them around (much like what you mentioned regarding the Korzikanci 🤣)... I wouldn't exactly go that far 🙄
Arming Ukraine in War in Ukraine ·
Carl Lee27 said:I’ve got this nagging feeling that, for better or worse, a huge chunk of what we’re seeing is driven by US geopolitics. Honestly, I don't think a lightning-fast end to this war is actually in their best interest. It feels like Ukrainians are being handed just enough gear to keep the Russians pinned down in a defensive crouch, but maybe not quite enough to secure a total victory. Beyond just making sure Russia bleeds, you have to look at the bigger picture—like pulling Germany away from Russian influence and really tightening the bonds within NATO. A quick resolution to the conflict might actually jeopardize those long-term strategic goals.

First, let's look at the military logistics:

The US doesn't have enough F-16s or similar aircraft sitting around to replace what Poland, Slovakia, and the others are sending.
The F-16's predecessor, the Mig-29, has pretty limited utility—especially when it comes to supporting ground troops during offensive operations—and there simply aren't enough of them to change the math on the battlefield.

Then you have the broader strategic concerns—they aren't exactly thrilled about escalation, for instance. If things ramp up too much, Russia might start targeting the very airfields being used to deliver these jets.

Honestly, the most practical move would be to max out the air defense support for the Ukrainians—meaning all those Eastern European Buk systems, Patriot missile systems, OSA, and Greek Tor systems—while ramping up ammunition, specifically artillery (with rocket shells being produced in both the Czech Republic and Poland). We should also keep the T-72s coming—the Czech ones are already on the way, and I suspect Polish ones will follow. And the Switchblade deliveries? Those should be at absolute maximum capacity.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
wanderingpilot7 said:America has absolutely nothing to be ashamed of. Just take a look at FlightRadar24 and track how those military planes are flying through Chicago Rzeszow to deliver aid. There hasn't been any photography happening at the airbase since March 11th... you have to wonder why. It doesn't need the media spotlight. Unlike Latvia, Slovakia, or Bulgaria, America isn't paying for its gas in rubles. And then, they kick out the Russian diplomats.

Latvia will be completely done with Russian gas by April 1st.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Joshua Myers432 said:1. What kind of "black" list of existing suppliers are we talking about?
2. Minimal to nonexistent.
3. You can't source nearly enough, and we don't even have the LNG terminals ready.
4. Nice idea, but where are the actual power plants?
5. I'll give you this: it's the best point. Turn everything off and you won't need gas. 🙏
6. You can't replace traditional fuels with that garbage, nor can you build new infrastructure in any realistic timeframe.
7. Where are you getting millions of EVs and thousands of heat pumps from? And better yet, where's the electricity to power that whole scam?
8. Everyone should do it, sure, but that’s a process that takes years. We lack the skilled labor, likely the materials, and honestly, it probably won't move the needle much on national energy consumption anyway.
9. They'll have to do it, though there will be plenty of issues there too.

It's impossible. Not even close. We should have thought ahead instead of being this dependent on Russian gas. It's a total utopia to think you can replace that amount of energy immediately—it's a utopia even if you look two or three years down the road.

This is bottom-tier stuff; there isn't any actual depth to your argument.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
David Torres2 said:Honestly, you can pretty much forget about every single one of those nine points right now. German politicians haven't even started moving on this, and there’s zero political will. They’re still sleeping on the job.

We need gas for heating, electricity, industry, and even food—since we need it for fertilizer—all while inflation (on paper, anyway) is already sitting at 7.5 percent.

Wholesale gas prices are 20 times higher than they were back in the spring of 2020, and electricity is up 8 times compared to 2020. The CFO over at Exelon just casually announced that those costs are going to have to be passed down to consumers,
depending on how much they manage to stock up on reserves this summer and what kind of price they grab.👍

Over here in Austria, electricity prices jumped another 20% starting back in May.

Keep in mind, we're talking about nine different points across the entire European Union, not just Germany. And strangely enough, Germany is the only one left without a plan for guessing when to shut down their nuclear plants—Belgium has already backed away from that idea, so we'll just have to wait and see what the Swiss decide to do.

By the way, new EU sanctions on Coal America have just been finalized:

This is hardly a minor issue. We're looking at 25% of exports within the EU, plus another 25% from other "Western" players who might jump on board (think Korea or Japan...).
image
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Anthony Hill5 said:It wasn't just a lack of foresight; rather, they actively told those who attempted to warn them to mind their own business.

Not only did they provide financial backing to Putin's criminal regime, which directly precipitated this war, but they also funneled money into funding Euroskeptic parties and all sorts of other dirty operations aimed at destabilizing the European Union—ranging from Sputnik and RT to various other Russian propaganda outlets used to influence events like Brexit.

The sheer scale of German stupidity and greed far exceeds any "mythical levels" you might suggest.

A mistake driven by a hunger for cheap energy, the consequences of which will now be paid through exorbitant energy prices.

The true cost of their obsession with cheap fuel is being paid by Ukrainians, so what exactly did the Germans offer during the opening days of the war? A few thousand helmets and two Polish hospitals? They are an absolute disgrace to the European Union.


Yeah, look—up until February 24th, everyone was terrified of provoking Russia. They just didn't believe an actual invasion was coming—that much is obvious. Then, two days later, the entire political landscape did a complete 180.

Joshua Myers432 said:What kind of energy? This isn't even about the cost anymore; it's about how you actually replace that massive volume of gas if Russia decides to shut off the tap. What's the fallback in the short term—and I mean the next 3 to 4 years?

Everything. 🙂 (Once I track down the link, I'll drop it back in here.)

Current suppliers—as it stands.
2) domestic reserves
3) LNG capacity limits
4) coal
5) cutting back on consumption
6) renewable energy sources
7) Mass electrification of transport—because clearly, we haven't had enough sudden shifts to deal with lately.
8) Heat pumps in apartment buildings—now that's an interesting one.
9) Guessing when they’ll finally pull the plug on the nuclear plants.

EDIT: So, there you have it—155 billion cubic meters of gas. That’s the entire Russian import volume for a single year right there.
https://twitter.com/mark_lynas/statu...82300901900292

I’m feeling a little optimistic about this—but hey, it might actually work.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
David Torres2 said:I always get the feeling from you that you're constantly taking things out of context.
It's the same deal with fossil fuels over there.

Fair enough...

But honestly, the way people exaggerate the role of Germany and the rest of Europe has reached mythic proportions at this point. Sure, the Germans didn't account for the possibility of Russian gas supplies being cut off—that was a bad call, poor projections, and maybe just getting too comfortable with the status quo. It was a mistake (driven by a craving for cheap energy), and now they're paying for it with massive utility bills.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
David Torres2 said:Coal
There’s also the option where we just drill for our own gas, right?

So, we're talking bringing back nuclear + building a bunch of new ones (just like the Frenchmen are doing)
Massive construction of new LNG thermal power plants
LNG terminals to import from elsewhere + the possibility of starting to drill for our own gas

Maximize all of that, and then you can slap sanctions on the Russians whenever you feel like it.
The Russians definitely have other buyers for their gas and oil, but they lack the tech—and they won't get it from the Chinese either. The Chinese have realized by now that they're just acting as a crutch for the Russians, which actually puts the Russians right in their hands.

Unfortunately, Europe doesn't have politicians who look past their next term, whereas the Chinese think in terms of generations.
The collapse of the European Union will be its salvation.

Oh, please—give me a break. The European Union is headed straight for a cliff. 🤦 The European Union is likely to come out of this stronger than ever—certainly not falling apart anytime soon.

The LNG terminals? Sure, those are happening. Existing thermal plants? Absolutely. But building new ones? Yeah, don't hold your breath—that’s definitely not on the agenda.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
David Torres2 said:As far as the military goes right now? They’re hitting rock bottom. They’re lacking in every single department, and the red tape is absolutely killing them, not to mention the incompetent politicians running the show. But mostly, I was trying to describe how German politics has basically failed across the board here.
Merkel really dug their grave by ditching fossil fuels and nuclear power at the same time. Now, Putin is basically treating the strongest nation in Europe like a joke because all other options are off the table. Honestly, serves them right!

They buried themselves by becoming totally dependent on Russian gas while simultaneously walking away from fossil fuels.🤔

Sure, killing off nuclear power was a massive blunder... but that's what the public asked for, so they got exactly what they wanted.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
David Torres2 said:You guys really glossed over the whole German situation.
The reality is that after WW2, Germany gave up all military ambitions and basically put themselves
entirely in the hands of America, who defended them and even fed them when Stalin blocked Berlin.
The Germans have always tried to dodge paying into the NATO treasury; they figured they could get a better deal by playing Russia, and they essentially surrendered all their agency to Putin's whims.
Even when Trump, and later Biden, threatened to scrap NS2, Merkel stayed firm—probably thinking that one day, Putin would just bypass Berlin entirely. There were plenty of voices in Germany warning that this exact thing would happen.

Let's look at a scenario where this war starts after the gas starts flowing through NS2, and Putin begins blackmailing them—either cutting it off or squeezing them dry.
If it weren't for America today, the Germans would be in the same boat as Poland, yet today they're spitting on Americans.🤦

Anyway, just so you know: euphemism and finger-pointing are two specialties of the German masters!

Hyperbole much?

Back in 1990, the German military had over half a million soldiers, 2,000 Leopard 2s, 2,500 Leopard 1s, hundreds of F-4 Phantoms and Tornadoes, ballistic missiles, and so on. They were a cornerstone of NATO's defense for Western Europe.

But, like everyone else in Europe, they slashed their budgets drastically during the 90s and beyond.