Posts by Amanda Flores88

gentlebadger said:The truth is, they don't have any energy left to use as leverage anymore. Europe was desperate for cheap power, and Russia couldn't offer much else besides that. Now? They've become completely irrelevant.

Robert Cooper9 said:So, what’s the big deal about a year of sanctions? We sit here complaining because things got a little pricier for six months—it's all just high drama. But people seem to forget the long-term fallout from those sanctions and the WAR itself. I mean, if the Kremlin supporters haven't noticed yet, this war is taking lives—mostly young men. We're looking at roughly 100k dead and three times that many wounded (which is an incredibly expensive burden to sustain), not even counting the refugees whose numbers we can't even track. How many more will fall? It's anyone's guess. Basically, their entire demographic potential is being flushed down the drain—we're talking about the same number of families devastated, or children who will never be born to rebuild the nation and drive it forward. Who is going to help them? They'll be digging themselves out of the hole they created for decades. Sure, Ukraine has suffered too—they have massive casualties—but who is going to help them? Well, I assume they'll get much better support from the West than we ever did, so I figure they'll get back on their feet faster. So, "good luck" to the idiots trying to be self-sufficient and recover; for us, the only consolation is that Russian oil and gas will likely be way cheaper after this is over—because the war will end whenever it ends.

Joshua Myers432 said:I’d say they’re going to run short on gas, but honestly, both the Russophobes and the Russophiles are going to feel the squeeze. They can just hug each other; maybe that'll keep them warm. Personally, I’m fine. Down in South Florida, we've got solar. 😉 ☕ Let their industry go bust; it’s too much of a headache anyway. Every summer it’s unbearable—you can’t even enjoy a swim in peace. Every beach is packed, paved over with concrete, trees chopped down, the whole environment trashed. Everything just reeks of cheap pizza slices and old fryer oil.

Anthony Perez9 said:Let them huddle up in their little holes or on some obscure fringe sites to spout their racism, conspiracy nonsense, and Putin supporter garbage. They can convince themselves they're right all they want; I don't see any benefit in letting their hate speech and filth bleed into the mainstream.
Once they actually start acting on it, then we deal with them.

analogbear5 said:Welcome back, folks—looks like those bills have finally arrived again to remind us why we're here. Since we're at it, let's do a quick refresher on the big takeaways from the start of this thread.

Also, might as well grab a drink and celebrate hitting page 400.

Let's get to it. 🙂

Arthur Miller7 said:I'm with you on that, it's all pretty obvious to me. My question is actually for this group of forum users who are fighting so hard against sanctions. Like, what's the actual alternative here? What was the West supposed to do? That old-school logic about "we need to maintain good relations with Russia" just doesn't cut it anymore. The Russians are blackmailing us. After Ukraine, if they start demanding something else—and let's face it, they will, because why would they stop?—what is the West even supposed to do then? Since you guys are all squawking so much about how things should have been, why don't you come up with those big, grand solutions to bring world peace and keep everyone warm?

The only thing we could've—or should've—done was not to cave from the very start. Look, we're here right now because everyone was too worried about the financial fallout, and now we're right back in the same financial crap. We should have been phasing out Russian energy step-by-step so that when we finally said "enough," we wouldn't be in this pathetic situation. But yeah, easy to say now, right? You can't just flip a switch overnight. If we had started planning nuclear plants and other alternatives earlier, Putin would've seen the writing on the wall and launched his "special operation" way sooner. By being soft on Russia, we basically just made them stronger than they ever were (even back in 2008), while they just kept us on a leash and squeezed us slowly.

Robert Barrett6 said:It doesn't matter what kind of stove you're using, from an old cookstove to a full central heating system. Even if the fire dies down, the heat lingers. In our 3,000-square-foot house, we only had to light the central furnace about three times a day.

Besides, with central heating, it’s standard practice to install a thermal storage tank. You'll have hot water running through the system for hours after the flame is completely out.

Megan Thomas5 said:I mean, is there really a need to be lounging around the house in short sleeves?

pronto2 said:I just don't know—are these EU clowns—pardon me, "experts"—knowingly shooting themselves in the foot, or
did this whole mess just catch them totally off guard?

Retirees living on life support.

Gerald Torres84 said:Corona and then Ukraine were merely convenient excuses to jack up prices... Once people stop buying at these inflated rates, these companies will be forced to adjust. Every single one of these suppliers and retailers is currently operating on the mindset of "as long as Mike keeps paying, we keep charging."

Bryan Booth82 said:Why are you taking this so far? Why didn't you pick an example closer to home?
Think about it—why were guys from Miami or Seattle on the front lines defending Memphis or San Francisco?

Maybe Mexico wouldn't have cared about those specific parts of the country... they could have just kept living off tourism in Key West or Newport Beach. Screw the US, let them deal with some place like Memphis.

Would Mexicans have ever set up shop near San Diego or Indianapolis??
Would Russians have ever stood on the border....

Oh, right—please, by all means, give us some justifications regarding Indochina and colonialism from two hundred years ago.
Best regards,

casualtiger2 said:The fallout from the sanctions on Russia—it’s happening. The fall is coming.

The new Chevrolet Grant recently rolled off the assembly line at the Automotive plant. According to their press release, they’re leaning into some extra bells and whistles—think color-matched door panels, heated mirrors, and electric adjustments. The factory over in Tolyati actually shut down after Ford pulled out of the country due to sanctions, eventually handing the keys over to the Russian government.

Media outlets are claiming that Vladimir Putin's Russia can thrive without the West—even with all those sanctions in place. Honestly? The PR spin is just ignoring everything missing from their latest Chevrolet—things like anti-lock brakes, airbags, seatbelt pretensioners, electronic stability control, or even an emergency call system.

That 1.6-liter naturally aspirated engine pumping out 90 HP? Yeah, it doesn't even touch the EPA Tier 3 standards anymore—it’s basically stuck in 1996 territory, barely meeting EPA Tier 1 levels. To make matters worse, the government actually lowered the testing requirements just so they could get the car registered. Typical. When Ali Grant says a car is "multimedia ready"—it’s really just a fancy, polite way of saying you’re going to have to install your own radio.
One guy is out here building Potemkin villages.

The Russian government and their statistical agencies have gone extremely limited with the economic data they actually release. Since Switzerland is basically viewed as an enemy state in Russia now, half their websites are impossible to even access. "You just can't rely on the handful of figures that still trickle out," says Marcus Keupp, a lecturer at West Point. Most of the numbers are being manipulated—it’s the classic Soviet playbook—building Potemkin villages to hide the reality.
Subscription despite Western sanctions—so, why is the ruble holding up so strong?

Some people look at a massive trade surplus and a strong currency as proof that international sanctions aren't doing a thing. Honestly? They couldn't be more wrong. Sure, Russia is still pulling in huge amounts of cash from oil and gas exports—which are barely touched by sanctions—but the real issue is that actually getting things *into* the country has become a nightmare because of them.

The drop in import tariff revenue tells you everything you need to know about how sanctions are actually working—they were down 43 percent in April compared to last year. If you look at export data from 54 different countries—which accounted for roughly 90 percent of all Russian imports back in 2021—the scale of the problem becomes pretty obvious. Since the invasion of Ukraine, exports from countries that signed onto the sanctions have plummeted by an average of 60 percent, according to the Peterson Institute.

It’s interesting, though—exports from other countries that aren't even part of the sanctions have also dropped by 40 percent. Apparently, they either don't want to, or just can't, fill the void left behind by the Western sanctions.

Even Chinese exports to Russia have tanked—down 38 percent compared to the second half of last year—despite Xi Jinping’s big claims that cooperation with Putin "has no limits." The tariffs aren't what's driving this slump—I mean, total Chinese exports only dipped by about 8 percent.

It looks like a lot of Chinese exporters aren't willing to risk their relationship with the US just to help bypass sanctions. Even Apple’s rival, Huawei—which is already on a US blacklist—has pulled back its operations in Russia. Even China's own Unionpay, which was supposed to step in with credit cards to replace Mastercard and Visa in Russia, is refusing to work with sanctioned Russian banks.

The pandemic proved that missing just one tiny component can grind an entire assembly line to a halt. Honestly, the current struggles within Russian industry shouldn't come as any shock to anyone. Take the new Ford F-150—it’s basically a perfect example of what's actually happening on the ground in Russia right now, and just how much damage those sanctions are really doing.

Putin is dreaming about replacing imports.

Even in the oil and gas industry, Russia relies heavily on Western tech. Major players like Shell, BP, and ExxonMobil have already announced their exits—walking away from joint ventures with Gazprom and Rosneft and turning their backs on projects worth billions. Basically, we’re looking at a massive shortage of tech, gear, and actual experts needed for production and refineries. Long term—this is going to tank energy revenues.

Nowatek—the biggest private energy player in the game—is about to wrap up its first LNG plant. But here’s the kicker: without the right technical gear from the West, they're basically stuck. They can't even get their second facility off the ground, which is currently sitting at only 40 percent completion.

Russia has been running an import substitution strategy for years now—basically trying to swap out foreign goods for their own stuff so they don't have to rely on anyone else. That’s just an old Russian dream—something Putin has been pushing incredibly hard. But let's be real—Russian industry has never exactly been anyone's crowning achievement."That's just how it is," says Marcus Keupp.

That Czech tractor has gone full Russian.

There have been cases where Western products ended up getting slapped with Russian labels. Take that Czech Zetor Forterra 135 tractor—as noted by Russian historian Kamil Galeev. Basically, a factory over there just bought the complete kits, put them together, and sold them off as if they were homegrown Russian tractors.

Public staging has always been a massive part of Russian history. Marcus Keupp said it best: "The Tsars did it, then the Soviets, and now it's Putin. A lot of people in the West are actually impressed by it—but you have to look behind the curtain to see what’s really going on."

The fallout is only just starting to surface. "Right now, you're mostly just surviving on whatever you've got left—but every single day gets harder. Every day, some little part of you just stops working, and there’s no replacement coming," says Keupp. — It’s a slow-motion collapse.

Companies that can't keep production lines moving because they're short on parts—it's a mess—are basically forcing their workers onto reduced hours or even mandatory furloughs.Just like what happened with the Chevrolet back in May—some companies are either cutting pay or just freezing it altogether.

Real wages are tanking.

Real wages in Russia are taking a hit thanks to skyrocketing inflation—we saw annual inflation climb past 17 percent in May. Back in April, they already dropped by 7.2 percent. The national Center for Strategic Studies is predicting that unemployment rates are going to take a serious dive across most of the country by the end of 2022.

Production shutdowns, shrinking real wages, and a bleak job market are absolutely killing consumer spending. In May, washing machine sales tanked—down 60 percent compared to the same month last year. Even worse, car sales plummeted by 84 percent.

Look at how much consumption has dropped—just check the sales tax revenue. In April, it was only half as much as it was this time last year.

Between a sudden drop in sales tax and customs revenue combined with skyrocketing expenses, the federal budget hit a deficit this April. It’s basically made the Treasury way too dependent on oil and gas taxes and fees—it's getting a bit sketchy. Their share of total revenue spiked to a record 63 percent—compared to just 28 percent back in 2020 and 36 percent in 2021.

If you want to support an economy and a population struggling with high inflation, the government basically has to bankroll massive relief packages. According to Treasury Secretary Anton Siluanov, they’re burning through about $160 billion this year—based on pre-war exchange rates—to keep things afloat. That's roughly 8 trillion rubles.

That’s the backstory behind why they scrapped that dividend for the state-owned gas giant—the first time something like this has happened since 1998. The company was actually looking to dish out a record-breaking dividend, but the government stepped in on Thursday and used its majority vote to shut it down. Turns out, they’re desperate for cash—they need the money, especially with those looming tax hikes hitting the energy sector.

Sanctions don't end wars.
Subscription fees are still climbing—even with billions pouring in from oil and gas. Honestly, it’s no wonder Russia is staring down a national bankruptcy.

On Monday, Russia paid off its foreign sovereign bonds for the first time since the Bolshevik Revolution back in 1917. Honestly, I don't see much of a short-term impact—the country is basically locked out of international capital markets anyway thanks to all those sanctions, and they aren't exactly sweating credit lines given how much they're raking in from energy prices. But long-term? That’s a different story entirely.

"That’s just how sanctions work—they hit the target economy hard with massive costs. But give them some time; they're going to need it to get back on their feet," says Marcus Keupp.

There’s also been some recent skepticism regarding sanctions—mostly because people seem to have these totally unrealistic expectations about how much they actually dent Russia's war machine. "The idea that sanctions alone would just end the war has always been a flawed assumption," says Keupp. "If this conflict wraps up, it'll be for purely military reasons."

The whole point of these sanctions is to cut Russia off from the modern global economy. And honestly? It worked. According to Keupp, the long-term fallout for Russia is going to be massive. Even the headline above the latest economic report in Thursday's Wall Street Journal puts it bluntly: "The fall is underway."

silentnomad7 said:But honestly, capitalism always finds a way to pivot! Look at what's happening right now in the European Union—they're already swapping out Russian gas and oil for different sources. It's all about adaptation. Even if trade with China were to completely dry up, capital would simply flow back into the European Union to open up new factories, because there's plenty of profit to be made right here...

bluerider63 said:Honestly, the absolute worst part isn't even the sanctions; it’s the fact that capitalism is basically just a dead concept on paper at this point. Prices aren't actually set by the market—despite what they drilled into our heads back when we were all starry-eyed over the West—but by these massive corporate cartels that move whenever someone tells them to. It feels like the globalist elite has the whole market in a chokehold, and honestly, that's just the tip of the iceberg.

Amanda Allen4 said:We are supposed to be discussing the current war in Ukraine, yet some people insist on dragging up arguments from past conflicts to justify everything happening today.

Imagine walking into a courtroom where the defense attorney tries to justify a murder charge by bringing up other murders that happened years ago—completely unrelated to the case at hand—just to defend their client.

Can you even imagine something more idiotic than that?

electricsurfer47 said:So, should we just launch a military operation against Canada?

That way we could settle all those border issues in a heartbeat. All we’d need is a decent excuse for an attack so we don't end up looking like the aggressors.

For instance,
Right near the US border, there are tons of labs making biological weapons.
They're always targeting Americans there.
They want to ban the American language.
They use Nazi symbols all the time—oh my god, they're Nazis! And even if nobody actually stops them, it doesn't matter; we just have to keep painting them as Nazis through the media.

Why wouldn't we just march on St. Paul? We could probably take over all of Canada that way.

And we could immediately "Americanize" Canada.

----
This is just pure imagination, basically a hypothetical of what Putin is doing in Ukraine.

Sent from my iPhone 9 Pro using Reddit

swiftjackal11 said:I'd rather pay a premium than have Russ breaking into my house and stealing my wallet.☕

brightheron64 said:They do.
But we also have to deal with the reality of sanctions, which haven't really been lifted just yet:

US moves to ease a few economic sanctions on Venezuela

Venezuela: The limited changes will allow Chevron Corp to negotiate its licence with the state-owned oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), but not to drill or export any petroleum of Venezuelan origin, two senior US government officials told The Associated Press late Monday. The officials spoke on the condition of anonymity because the formal announcement had not been made.
https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/20...s-on-venezuela

Forget about them being amateurs for a second; the real catch is that everyone else has hiked up their oil prices.

The Saudis have announced there should be enough oil to replace what comes from Russia, but I can't imagine anyone is looking to drop their prices anytime soon.
Just look at the landscape—opportunity is everywhere. You've got three major oil giants—Russia, Iran, and Venezuela—all under embargoes, Syria is still caught in war, and Libya has seen its production slashed in half... Why would anyone be foolish enough to just give away oil for next to nothing?

swiftjackal11 said:These Russians are absolute amateurs when it comes to business. If everyone is supposedly so dependent on what they're selling, why on earth were they selling it so cheap? 🤷