Posts by gentlestag15

urbanotter said:And I certainly didn't suspect you'd go reaching for Kyiv-based propaganda either.

At least my sources come from Deutsche Welle rather than Russian outlets, whereas yours seem strictly limited to Ukrainian and Kyiv perspectives.

What really puzzles me, though, is why gas is still flowing through Ukraine at all. You would think they would cut it off entirely to stop the flow of money that helps fund the war in Ukraine through those pipelines.

It's being reported by Deutsche Welle and a ton of other outlets too.
https://learngerman.dw.com/en/russia...eat/a-42912675

It’s been eight years since that Russian shootdown of the Malaysian airliner, an absolute tragedy that claimed 298 lives.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FX2bzbYX...jpg&name=small
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FX2bzbUW...pg&name=medium
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FX3tMCfW...pg&name=medium
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FX3tIxwX...pg&name=medium

Michael Davis9 said:Russia trades with the European Union. .

While the European Union buys energy, here is what Russia actually buys from them:

The European Union’s exports in 2021 totaled $110 billion. The heavy hitters were machinery and equipment ($21 billion, 19.7%), motor vehicles ($9.7 billion, 9%), pharmaceuticals ($8.8 billion, 8.1%), electrical equipment and machinery ($8.2 billion, 7.6%), and plastics ($4.7 billion, 4.3%).

However, if Russia can't actually convert those Euros into usable goods—and looking at the massive drop in Russian imports, it really seems like they can't—then you have to wonder how much sense it makes to keep piling up all that cash in Euros.

Personally, I think Putin might have miscalculated here. Those Euros aren't going to build him a tank (or "motor vehicles," to stick to the terminology used in the source above), nor can they buy the electronic components needed for a Boeing jet, or even a high-end industrial valve required for a factory or a power plant.

Even if they decide to turn off the gas taps tomorrow, most European Union nations have had about six months to get their houses in order—which includes importing enough gas to fill up their storage facilities—so the impact won't be quite as catastrophic as it would have been back in month two.

Every crisis presents an opportunity, and if this doesn't push European Union countries toward greater energy independence, then there's really no point in it happening.
That said, we shouldn't paint everyone with the same brush. The Finns know exactly who they are dealing with, so they've proactively limited their own gas imports. Sure, they could have gone for cheaper energy over the last few decades, but relying on Russia was just too big a risk for them.

Look, the 1973 oil crisis taught Americans a lesson, and now we produce more oil than anyone else on the planet.
Sure, Europe wants to be energy independent too, but they aren't doing it for strategic survival—they're doing it for the environment. And that's a long game; they'll dump trillions of dollars into it over the next two decades, though maybe they'll squeeze that timeline down to ten years if things get desperate enough.

urbanotter said:Russia is going to shift its trade focus toward the East and toward the BRIC nations, which they are looking to expand by adding more members.
They’ll try to source the goods they traditionally imported from Europe from other parts of the world instead. Right now, Russia is seeing an unprecedented trade surplus, and when you have that kind of capital, you can always find someone to sell you a car or even basic groceries, while they also begin manufacturing a larger portion of what they used to import themselves.

Chinese cars aren't bad at all, and Brazil produces quite a lot of them too.

However, Europe seems destined to deal with more expensive gas, because the cost of LNG will never be able to compete with the price of gas delivered directly via pipelines.
It’s a simple matter of logistics: the process of liquefying the gas, transporting it on LNG tankers, and then regasifying it is expensive, no matter where in the world Europe sources it from.

Since heating accounts for roughly 30% of imported gas usage, the industrial sector will feel the biggest hit, and with those higher input costs, entering a recession seems almost inevitable.

Sanctions can be a double-edged sword; you can easily end up falling into the very hole you were digging for someone else.

I’ve mentioned this here before, but you have to look back at the Arab oil embargo in 1973. Things literally ground to a halt in Europe and the US for six months because there was zero fuel available.
The oil price spiked several times, jumping from $3 to $12. Instead of the US and Europe collapsing, we actually saw massive economic growth in the years that followed.
The share of Arab oil imports into Europe dropped from 80% down to 20%.
And that hasn't gone back up since; the US mostly just imports it to resell it, not because they actually need it.

Elizabeth Wells2 said:A Briton sentenced to death sings the Russian anthem:

https://mobile.twitter.com/AldemiraV...33469988204546

The American humanitarian Paul Urey passed away today while in Russian captivity.
Even though he was just out there doing humanitarian work, they still locked him up.
Honestly, I just hope he didn't die from being beaten.
https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/...89726543130630

rowdyraven112 said:I’d love to know if these big-time advocates for sanctioning Russia actually have any idea if the Americans got the green light from Zelensky for this ☕

So what’s the actual endgame here?
Do we just unhook the Russian modules from the ISS or go ahead and shut down the whole space station?

Arthur Watson4 said:Some interesting public opinion polling coming out of Germany

https://twitter.com/COdendahl/status...42955116892160

The only thing interesting here is how the far-left and the far-right actually agree on one thing: they both don't support Ukraine. It’s pretty funny how Putin managed to throw a bone to both the radicals on the left and the right at the same time.
little Putin plays the communism card while running a fascist agenda, and somehow both sides end up loving him for it.
Feels like we're seeing the exact same thing happening here in the States.

cosmicotter13 said:Oh, would you please be so kind as to provide the links to those "coherent" responses from these ten people? Because from where I’m sitting, those answers look suspiciously like the very things you’ve just "refuted."
Tell me then—exactly how much should an American have to pay for these ridiculous antics in Ukraine? Give me a number. A specific figure. Not some clever little quip or a joke. Either do the math or just guess out loud.

Let's play along for a second. Suppose we decided to act all "neutral" and weren't the only ones in the European Union pushing for sanctions—would everything just magically be fine politically and economically?
Would this war in Ukraine cost us nothing? Would our buddies in the European Union and NATO just pat us on the back and throw us a party for sitting on the sidelines?
Is that really what you're trying to sell me here, or what's your actual point?

Terry Green3 said:Trolling. By that logic, Russia is also a colony that split off from conquering vikings, which is why they couldn't colonize anyone else.

Every serious American historian characterizes Manifest Destiny as a policy of colonialism.
In the 21st century, there's really no debate left on that. Maybe pick up a book once in a while...

You're basically stealing history like those guys over by the Mississippi.
Look, let's just get one thing straight: Kievan Rus has absolutely nothing to do with the Moscow Principality that eventually turned into modern Russia. It’s a total stretch.

Terry Green3 said:The Albanians are already talking about the day when Mexico and Albania finally become one.

Is it really that hard to admit the West completely botched its international policy regarding Mexico?

Didn't Russia already mess things up in Abkhazia and Ossetia over in Georgia, and with Transnistria in Moldova, way before everything went down in Mexico?
You never call them out, though. Seriously, you just let them get away with everything.

Terry Green3 said:Your claim that it's the only country to have held onto its colonies.

That claim is false. Period.
There isn't much point in debating this at length.

PS. Just one more thing.
Back when Russia was weak, those Asian nations raided and pillaged them. Once they gained strength, they turned the tables. It’s the same with Europeans in America; they couldn't push east because the Ottomans were wiping the floor with us. Whoever is stronger does the crushing.
It always has been, and it always will be. I just had to debunk these claims about Western "benefactors" who wouldn't even step on an ant, while portraying Russians as nothing but bloodthirsty...

I don't even know what you're talking about—the US is literally a former colony that fought a war to break away from the United Kingdom.
The closest comparison would be if a group from somewhere like Seattle decided to break off from Russia.

Terry Green3 said:This nonsense has really started gaining traction lately.
Claiming they're the "only" one...



There's another example much closer to home, barely a century ago.

PS. You segregate the indigenous Americans, shove them into reservations, strip away their political rights, and then pose as the global beacon of democracy. Then, in true Anglo-Saxon fashion (unlike the Spaniards, who didn't share that specific British brand of racist colonization), you paint everyone else as criminals while acting like a saint despite your own criminal policies.

We didn't even mention the struggles of African Americans until the 60s.
Better to just stay quiet, I guess.

Look, the whole world knows about the miserable slavery and the Native Americans in the USA.
But who actually knows about the oppressed peoples in Russia and the mountains of genocide committed there?
Americans are at least facing their past bullshit today, but are Russians?
Have you ever even heard of this group from the Black Sea?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circassian_genocide
Estimates suggest that in Siberia alone, they killed just as many—if not more—of the indigenous population as what happened in the USA.

gentlerider7 said:So the whole pitch is basically treating Russia like some sort of global underdog, you know? Like they’re just this innocent kid standing up to those corrupt Americans. At least, that’s the exact narrative the alternative media outlets have been shoving down everyone's throats.

People often forget that Russia is basically the only colonial power that managed to hang onto most of its colonies, which is exactly why it's still the largest country on the map today.
A handful of former colonies actually had the guts to break away back in 1991, so this whole war is really just a desperate attempt to drag those former territories back under their thumb.
When you look at what the Russians are doing, it isn't just standard imperialism—it's straight-up colonial imperialism.

Zachary Jackson4 said:I am simply interested in knowing the number of Russian civilian fatalities during 2021.

The total number of civilian deaths for both Ukrainians and Russians was seven last year.
The UN lumps them all together in their count.

From Jan 1 to Dec 31, 2021, the OHCHR documented 44 civilian casualties resulting from active combat (things like shelling,
small arms fire, and explosives dropped from Drones): seven people were killed (six men and one woman) and 37 were injured (25
men, nine women, two boys and one girl). That’s actually a 37.1 percent drop from the numbers in 2020 (where eight were killed and 62
were injured).

Video of a mother and her child just minutes before they were killed by a Russian missile strike in Vinica
It’s sickening. Honestly, Putin deserves a rope around his neck, and frankly, anyone backing him should be right there next to him.
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/statu...96152677117952

Christian Torres3 said:It’s worth noting how those supposedly "precision" Russian missiles just leveled apartment buildings in Vinnytsia, leaving two civilians dead in their wake.

Russian Rockets hit The City of Vinnytsia this Morning. One of The Three Rockets Fell near a new maternity hospital
Six people injured, two dead—including a young child—according to the head of the National Police. They're still working on the final casualty count.
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/...BhDgNZQcaLnUxg

It feels like Russia's math is basically: "You have more apartment buildings than we have warehouses."

Sadly, the death toll has already climbed to 12.
There was at least one baby in a stroller among them.
The photos are all over Twitter.

Jack Hill2 said:Oil prices are dropping again, sitting at $93 right now.

The last time we saw $90 was back in January 2022...

It was hovering at $92 just the day before the invasion started.
That’s basically how sanctions end up gutting the West. The whole goal is to get Europe completely decoupled from Russian gas, and once that happens, you're going to see gas prices absolutely crater.

gentlerider7 said:Stalinism isn't dead, it's just rebranding

"A local guy in the suburbs of DC actually called the cops on his own wife just because she wouldn't shut up about how much she hates what's happening with the war in Ukraine. According to some report over at news outlets citing their sources, this is the real deal.

So, get this: this 37-year-old dude actually dialed 911 to try and get his spouse in legal trouble. He claims she’s been out there tearing into the US military actions in Ukraine and basically showing nothing but anti-American sentiment. And apparently—get this—he thinks she's even turning their kid against the US government. Can you believe that?

Law enforcement is currently on the scene processing the situation, trying to figure out all the messy details of what went down.

https://www-gazeta-ru.translate.goog..._x_tr_pto=wapp

So, some mechanic over in Crimea refused to fix a military vehicle
and the court decided his entire property should just be bulldozed.
https://twitter.com/novayagazeta_en/...62619534864386

Brenda Murphy3 said:Look, you're totally missing the point. The actual issue here is that some guy in Moscow—he LITERALLY cannot just walk into a local bank or a currency exchange and swap his rubles for dollars at the official rate. He can't. It's impossible.

Whether people are using rubles to buy stuff or not is completely irrelevant to the core problem.

Can I just walk into a bank here in the States with a handful of rubles and expect to get euros for them?
Or would a German in Germany be able to do that?

Jack Hill2 said:That makes the Russian influence even weaker. They only account for 14% of the supply right now. If they drop to 7-8% over the next year, Putin won't be able to bark for a long time...

You're only looking at imports and totally ignoring domestic production within the European Union.
The EU actually has plenty of room to ramp up its own gas production, mostly because they basically let their local industry rot while relying on cheap imports.
There’s a clear, steady decline happening here, and half the truth is that a huge chunk of that was produced by VB, which isn't even part of the European Union anymore.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/...uropean-union/

Jack Hill2 said:Gas imports: Then vs. Now (weekly average over the last 4 weeks)

2022
LNG 2,732 (38.4%)
Norway 2,711 (38.1%)
Russia 1,009 (14.2%)
Algeria 660 (9.3%)
__________________________
Total: 7,112

2021
Russia 3,057 (41.2%)
Norway 2,018 (27.2%)
LNG 1,654 (22.2%)
Algeria 701 (9.4%)
__________________________
Total: 7,430

Currently, Europe has sourced 6,103 out of the 7,430 units imported during this same period last year from sources other than Russia. This means Europe's reliance on Russia has dropped from 40% down to just 17%.

Meanwhile, Russian gas exports to Europe have plummeted from 3 billion to 1 billion...

Counting oil doesn't make sense here. Europe isn't dependent on Russia for oil at all. By the end of the year, 98% of oil will be imported from other sources.

You also have to keep in mind that the EU produces about 20% of its own needs
and that percentage is going up given how prices look right now.
Last year, America produced 30% of its own gas needs.
With new gas fields opening up in the Midwest, that should climb to 40% this year.

Plus, ExxonMobil is set to open a few more wells in the Adriatic Sea, so we're looking at 50% domestic gas production by next year.
http://www.energetika-net.com/vijest...-jadranu-34994