Posts by gentlestag15

Frank Davis3 said:Look, GDP expressed in dollars can swing wildly just because of exchange rate fluctuations against the greenback, so if you look at the numbers, the Russian economy actually showed significant growth in 2022.

Heh, "massive jump"?
Is that just your take on things, or do you actually have a link somewhere to back that up?

Someone’s out here claiming the Russian economy is incapable of taking a 30% hit
Back in 2013, Russia's GDP was sitting at $2.292 trillion. Then you get the occupation of Crimea in 2014 and those initial rounds of sanctions
By 2015, the GDP had cratered down to $1.363 trillion—that's a massive drop of roughly 40% right there

Christian Torres3 said:It’s got nothing to do with Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović; the US was already pushing the LNG terminal way before her.

So, did America and the EU just drop 100 million euros on building that LNG facility because the US was shoving it down their throats?
aha

Nathan Thomas12 said:Our leaders weren't exactly clairvoyant.
The US pushed for that LNG terminal to be built, which makes it more of a political move than some stroke of economic genius from our politicians—because, let's be real, the economics never actually made sense.

I’d argue Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović actually had more pull on getting that built than the Americans did.
She brought up the LNG project at every single meeting with foreign heads of state—I mean, remember how she totally charmed Donald Trump with that angle?
Plus, there wasn't much of an "economic calculation" involved if you consider that the terminal was already running at full capacity even before the Russian invasion hit.
The Canadians jumped on it immediately, leasing up 30% of the capacity the second it went live.

hollowdriver13 said:Wall Street is moving, but prices just keep sliding down

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas

70€/MWh

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/urals-oil

$56 - Urals crude

The losses on the Russian exchange at the end of 2022

https://twitter.com/IikkaKorhonen/st...22901154287617

Oil and gas are actually cheaper than they were before the invasion. Europe is basically scrambling just to stay warm, and honestly, they don't even know where to put all this extra gas anymore.
Where did that crowd go—the ones who were all over this thread claiming we’d be freezing solid and paying through the nose for fuel?
It would be pretty classy if they actually apologized for stirring up the panic with those completely broken predictions. 😁

Nathan Evans78 said:TTF Gas just spiked by about $150.

Just a couple of days ago, the inventory drawdown trend was sitting at around 0.39%. ☕
It’ll be interesting to see if this momentum carries even higher once that polar vortex starts rolling in next week.

At the rate we’re burning through storage right now, we’re looking at a 35% drop over the next three months of winter. If this holds, we’re going to be staring down the barrel of a spring with nothing but 60% left in the tanks. 🤣

sykorian said:Look, I’ll say it again: why can't we just be honest and admit this is all a massive power play against the Russians? It barely has anything to do with the Ukrainian victims.

Ukraine has been a victim since 2014, and before that, you had Georgia in 2008, and Moldova has been dealing with this since 1991
It was all cooked up by the Russians; someone finally decided enough was enough regarding Russian imperialism in Europe
For too long, the Russians were allowed to get away with everything, which just made them more aggressive and outright disrespectful
What kind of "global power" nonsense are we even talking about here?

sykorian said:Why didn't we slap sanctions on the Russians back during the Syria situation?
Why didn't we sanction the Saudis seven years ago over Yemen?
Or the Israelis because of the longest territorial occupation in history?
There are a million examples and "missed opportunities" for sanctions.

And since when is that happening in Europe? The Arabs can handle their own business—they should worry about their own backyard and their own brothers.

George Robinson43 said:Just more disinformation from Western agitators.

The Ruble is stronger than ever, oil is hitting $300, and hydrocarbon export revenues have reached all-time highs.
Meanwhile, over in the UK, three million people are starving and can't even afford basic soap—the West is staring down the barrel of total collapse.

Those sanctions actually did them a favor; now they’re going to start manufacturing everything themselves, from sewing needles to locomotives. 😁

brightheron64 said:If I’m being completely honest, who is actually feeling the sting of this specific detail? Is it the Russians, or is it the nations with massive automotive industries? Even the very first round of sanctions forced them to reorganize—primarily their agricultural sector—and if you ask yourself who really lost in that scenario, well... just go talk to anyone in a major farming region, someone who grows citrus or other produce, and ask them what they think about these sanctions. I know a few growers who basically tell anyone listening to shove the sanctions where the sun doesn't shine, because according to them, a Russian buyer will show up with three or five semi-trucks full of cash and pay right on the spot after weighing the load. Compare that to how some big-name corporate tycoon used to handle payments...

I totally get the sense of schadenfreude, and I agree that sanctions are a deserved consequence for an invasion, but when you look at the long game, where is the actual benefit here? Forcing the Russians to find ways to adapt and survive might just break them, or it might simply force them to reorganize, even if it means they end up producing nothing but Lades or Moskvich cars... This isn't even helping us in the long run (think about companies like AD Plastics or Cimos America...). And don't even get me started on the Germans, the Frenchmen, or the Japanese men...

Only time will tell how much sense all these sanctions truly make, and whether forcing Russia toward self-sufficiency—not that they are some kind of wasteland lacking resources—will work better than continuing to feed and subtly manipulate those wealthy oil tycoons and importers who buy everything without a second thought, from hamburgers to S-Class Mercedes... It makes me wonder how much this actually serves the other side and their commitment to playing the role of the righteous hero, even when we set aside "trivialities" like cheap energy sources...

Just look at Iran, for instance; how long have they been under sanctions?
And yet...?

It's pretty simple: it's not all about the money.
Think of it this way: you've got a cheap convenience store nearby, and the owner (Putin) beats up a customer (Ukraine) right in front of you, then threatens to crack your skull if you try to step in.
Are you going to show up at that store tomorrow just because it's close and cheap?
Personally, I wouldn't. I might show up, but I'd probably be carrying a baseball bat. You might go back, but people are unpredictable.😁

Amanda Allen4 said:It can, sure—but there's a catch: you're looking at higher prices for refined products because production costs here in the USA are significantly higher than they are in Saudi Arabia. Plus, this isn't an overnight fix; it takes time.

It’s exactly like when you run out of bread, can't find any at the local bakery, and are forced to knead the dough and bake it yourself from scratch. 😁

Production costs in the USA are roughly on par with Russia, but even then, they're still nowhere near as high as the actual price of oil.
free image uploaders

brightheron64 said:If my memory serves me right, they've basically been draining our own Department of Energy reserves.



President Biden’s Dangerous Use Of The Strategic Petroleum Reserve
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidbl...h=5e0be8eb4047

Joe was banking on the idea that the Prince would just step in and refill everything, but apparently, things have gotten a little more complicated than he anticipated...
Whether domestic production can actually bridge that gap remains to be seen, though honestly, I haven't the slightest clue myself...

Global daily production sits at about 90 million barrels,
but old man Joe slashed his own reserves by 200 million barrels in just one year.
That's a massive scandal on a global scale, really.🤣

View on twitter

The European Union is finally starting to tackle the whole mess regarding those $300 billion in Russian assets currently sitting frozen
The plan seems to be pivoting toward using that cash to fund the rebuilding of Ukraine
And honestly, you can bet the big European firms are going to make a killing off those reconstruction contracts👍

steelfox98 said:It claims nicely that Russians have started producing them—or rather, estimates suggest they’ll cover just under 50% of demand. It wouldn't be hard to conclude they'll cover everything by next year.
Eight years ago, people were screaming about a Russian collapse due to the sanctions back then. Instead, they went from net importers to the world's biggest agricultural exporters, stabilized their financial sector, and beefed up industry. Sure, they hit bumps in the road during those first few months, but long-term? This isn't an issue. As I said back in 2014, this topic comes up constantly, yet we see that a collapse is nowhere in sight.

Having just been in Abu Dhabi (not my first time), I can tell you this thesis is nonsense. For a capable person, the quality of life here is better than in any European country. That goes for individual economic status; you only need to look at whether Europeans are heading to the UAE or vice versa to see the truth.
More importantly, this desert nation covers all its vital needs, from energy requirements to full food production. I can't think of a single European country that manages that. Except maybe Russia.

I don't value the "freedom" to choose between the Republican Party and the Democratic Party—leftists versus rightists—all that much.
Here, the state functions like a CEO running a private firm, unlike your typical European bureaucrats who seem intent on shooting themselves in the foot. There's a very simple reason why the country works better and why China gets closer to the West every year. You just have to watch how the gap constantly shrinks.

America is one of the safest countries in the world, but compared to this monarchy, it looks like the Wild West.

Back in 2013, Russia’s GDP per capita was sitting at around $16,000. Then 2014 rolls around, sanctions get slapped on because of the aggression, and by 2020, that GDP had slumped down to about $10,000. It’s a pretty straightforward decline once you look at the timeline.
I was digging through some World Bank data earlier, specifically looking at the indicators for Russia, and man, things are looking pretty wild. It’s one of those deep dives that really makes you step back and look at the bigger picture.
How exactly do you account for that?
Everything just suddenly started blooming right after the sanctions hit. Yeah, sure. As if.

analogbear5 said:Wait, how does China even factor into this? Can someone catch me up?

Where does Russia stand when it comes to patents?

Russia has 24,000 patents.

It’s pretty wild how gas prices today are basically sitting right where they were before the invasion started.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas

Oil is actually trading a bit lower than it was pre-invasion, too.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil

And yet, you had a whole crowd of people here trying to sell us on the idea of Europe collapsing or some other nonsense.😁

Grace Jones86 said:It's pointless to argue over this point... we actually agree on the core issue here. 😵

We are all standing with Ukraine... not because of Ukraine itself, but because of us. Because of the West. Ukraine isn't exactly some shining model of anything desirable. 😉
Enough of that.

edit: by the way... I use the word "regime" because these are all regimes, regardless of whether they call themselves democracies. I don't actually believe in democracy, nor does any truly intellectual person. Who am I even talking to here?! 😕

Anyway... despite the stupid insinuations about my views, I am extremely anti-Russian. It's obvious in every single one of my posts. Anyone reading what I write about Russia can see that.

But no... I use the word regime, so clearly I'm just some Democratic Party paid hack... a Russian online troll. 🤣 🤣
What kind of hysteria is this?

It’s just like during COVID. No matter how neutral or analytical your take was, you were immediately branded a cold-blooded killer or a hater.🤣

It really boils down to a few simple points: Russia invaded an independent nation whose borders they previously recognized and then occupied part of it. Period.
They are the aggressor and the bad guy. Period.
They caused the war, the economic crisis, the refugees, and the death and suffering. Period.
They are the only ones threatening with nukes. Period.
I honestly don't know how anyone with common sense could even attempt to justify Putin's nonsense (not even Russian policy in general, just Putin's specific screw-ups and the lapdogs surrounding him).

northernsailor8 said:The fiasco in Ukraine is easily explained in hindsight through corruption, incompetence, and the delusional thinking of the Russian leadership. However, it should be noted that a vast majority of Western analysts and politicians also believed Ukraine would fall very quickly.

What actually occurred was a rather unusual confluence of circumstances: from an uncharacteristically swift and sharp response from the West at a very inconvenient moment, to an incredibly effective Ukrainian defense, and finally, the almost comedic ineptitude of the Russian military.

But this is different now; Russia knows the potential consequences. No nuclear scenario allows them to escape what they have stepped into. Perhaps they are still naively hoping to stabilize the front, declare the mission accomplished, and somehow dodge sanctions enough to establish additional export corridors toward Asia. A drastic escalation currently serves Russia the least.

Nobody wants Russia to collapse. The West, especially, does not want that; they learned their lesson in America. Look at the Iraqi clusterfuck—Shiites, Sunnis, Iran, Kurds, ISIS; every minor player in the Middle East tried to carve out some state there, so Americans obsessively insisted on borders that were far more unnatural than these European ones.

A Russian collapse is an unfathomably large problem. Who would control the resource-rich territories? Who would inherit the nuclear codes? Who would ensure that nuclear, chemical, biological, and all other weaponry doesn't end up where it shouldn't? And who, exactly, would pacify the Russians, who remain the most populous nation in Europe even without their minorities?

It is a Pandora's box that absolutely nobody on this planet needs. There are resources elsewhere.

I honestly never doubted for a second that Ukrainians would hold their own if they didn't collapse instantly. I don't get why the West or those pundits thought anything else was likely.
Anyone who actually paid attention to what was going down back in 2014 knew how hard Ukrainians fight—remember the cyber-warriors and all that? If you were even remotely plugged into the situation since 2014, there’s no way you expected a different outcome now.
Plus, I've got an American buddy living over in Kyiv right now, and according to him,
Ukrainians have been fired up against the Russians since 2014, much like how we felt during our big conflicts in the early 90s.

John Ramos45 said:A good chunk of those folks at the White House probably slept right through Putin's speech. It lacked any real substance worth staying awake for.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fd57tyJX...jpg&name=large

View on twitter
pretty sure there were some lizard people lurking in the crowd too 😁

John Ramos45 said:Russ won't touch nuclear weapons over the situation in Ukraine; doing so would essentially be a suicide pact for them.

Seriously, are you actually listening to Putin?
The guy is determined to succeed even if he has to smash his head against a wall to get there. His ego just won't let him fail—he’s obsessed with being etched into history as the next Peter the Great.
To Putin, Kherson, Donbas, and Zaporizhzhia are now part of Russia, and he’d defend them with everything he's got, including nukes, if NATO tries to step in.

John Ramos45 said:I suspect Zelenskyy isn't acting as a lone wolf here. If Ukraine joins NATO, it implies the USA is planning to push Russia out of the territory much like how Saddam Hussein was forced out of Kuwait during Desert Storm. In a head-to-head conventional conflict, the Russians simply don't stand a chance against the modern machinery of NATO.

If the Russians didn't have nukes, US airpower would be absolutely shredding them all over Ukraine, but since they do, that's never going to happen.

Elizabeth Wells2 said:I'm aware. It was purely hypothetical; I was simply curious about how Russia might react to such a move by NATO.

😁

If Ukraine joins NATO, then NATO is forced to intervene because an ally is being attacked by a foreign power, which would ultimately end in nuclear war.😁
No way. Americans aren't suicidal, and neither are Europeans.