Posts by Robert Vaughn10

Ben admitted quite plainly that it counts as monetization as long as they don't sell those bonds later—or if they just hold onto them indefinitely. So, by his logic, it’s only monetization until the sale happens. But who on earth is going to buy all that massive pile of paper? Gold didn't even flinch at the news.😉
I'll bet my bottom dollar we see a correction by late 2013.
Honestly, quiettrucker12, I'm starting to doubt your forecasts, and I suspect you're starting to doubt them too.😉
Those short-term moves were solid, but now I'm skeptical about hitting $1,900 USD by March. Maybe I'm wrong; we'll see.
With news like this, gold should have jumped at least a few dozen dollars, if not more. This kind of action has to show up in the CPI with at least a couple of percentage points.
None of this changes my conviction, though: over a 5 to 10-year horizon, gold and silver will be more expensive. Significantly more expensive. Everything being done right now, announced in September and continuing today, is eventually going to blow up in their faces. In about 10 years, finally. You can only push a boiling pot so far before it overflows. And with these kinds of moves, the dollar is losing purchasing power—there's no question about it. Sure, the dollar might still hold its own for a year or two, or we might even hit a deflationary shock, but looking at the long term—say, 5 to 10 years—I don't see how the dollar maintains any real purchasing power.

quiettrucker12 said:I don't think we're in a bear market. I'm just saying—bear market rallies are killer opportunities for longs, and those massive bounces always look incredibly convincing. Honestly, even those rallies are easier money than trying to short. Real money is made on the long side.

For the most part, I agree, especially regarding the intensity, but not entirely. If we were actually in a bear market, it would be perfectly logical to go short after those types of rallies. But Charles rarely, if ever, shorts—and that says a lot. To me, it suggests that Charles either consciously or subconsciously doesn't believe we're in a bear market.

lonehawk5 said:Adding more to my position... long

Gold is sitting at $696.12
Silver is at $32.82

I haven't seen you take a single short position yet, only closing out after prices drop.
If we’re actually in a bear market—which seems to be your logic—it stands to reason that shorting would be the easier path for a trader.
So go ahead, pull the trigger on a short. Then maybe I'll believe you actually think we're in a bear market.😉

Melissa Sanchez17 said:Graham Summerson🤣 What a joke. I actually subscribe to his newsletters. According to him, the dollar was supposed to tank by the end of August. A whole bunch of people are pissed because he predicted there wouldn't be any volatility before the election (for investment purposes). Huge mistake, and the financial damage was even worse. That's enough said about him.

I'm not even gonna waste my breath talking about the UN or our own politicians. Incompetent, liars, clueless, corrupt... the dollar is definitely headed lower, there's no other way.

From what I can see, the Dow Jones fell about 500 points after the QE announcement, the S&P seems to have done the same, and even gold dipped slightly. So, I'm not quite sure what you're referring to.
I’ve never been one for short-term forecasting, and I certainly wouldn't believe the dollar would collapse that quickly or easily.
The point of my post was to illustrate that those in power actually believe these debt-reduction fairy tales and would resort to socialist methods to achieve them. It also strikes me as incredible that anyone believes we haven't already passed the point of no return...

If you want a clear look at the mental state of politicians and just how much they actually "know" when they speak, look no further than this exchange between a journalist and a UN official.

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed...k-intervention

Apparently, they still think this is doable. The situation is looking even bleaker than I originally thought...
Take the President of France, Barack Obama, claiming he’ll nationalize a steel mill if layoffs start happening.

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne...The_World.html

Look, I’m all for people having jobs, but since when does the government get to tell a private owner how to run their business? At that point, let's just skip the formalities and pivot straight to socialism.
We all know the difference between living under socialism in the East versus capitalism in Western Europe. The catch this time? There isn't even a real economy left to lean on, unlike what we saw back in the old days in the South.

Gold and silver will have to step up to counter these moves; otherwise, the dollar could slide even further.

At the 3:25 mark, you'll find the estimate on printing volume. Otherwise, you might as well sit through the entire interview.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qjmuPw8RZ4A

So why is this being proposed in India then?

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&...B5x2kHHNGgGc7A

A possible explanation...

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldne..._Planners.html

Ashley Thompson10 said:The way I see it, the primary engine driving precious metals against fiat currency is simply the endless printing of money.
Precious metals don't actually move much—they aren't really surging or crashing—it's just that the Dollar is constantly losing its value, which creates the illusion of growth in the metals market.

Given the perpetual state of crisis we find ourselves in today, I think it’s highly probable we’ll see an aggressive increase in money supply. That could easily send inflation spiraling into high single digits or even low double digits.

It’s fascinating watching the mainstream media push this narrative of a "moderate recovery," especially when you look at how the issues in Europe are just starting to boil over. To fix the mess, they'll either have to perform some kind of financial alchemy, or debt will pile up so high that interest payments become impossible to cover. If that happens, the only way out is a massive correction through inflation. The big banks won't like it, but sooner or later, it's inevitable.

Maybe inflation won't hit immediately. They might just sell off bonds from the more developed parts of the EU to buy up peripheral debt. But how long can that actually last? We might get a few years of stalling, but eventually, things are going to get tight. I expect we'll see heavy tax pressure—think something like what they're attempting in the Netherlands—and those massive EU budget cuts championed by Merkel and Cameron. The real issue is that this bond-buying scheme just masks a much larger problem down the road: those economies won't be able to cover the interest payments. Instead of drawing a line in the sand and admitting, "We messed up, there's a crisis, and it didn't just happen by accident," they'll just dodge. They should be cutting spending, writing off major debts, allowing some deflation, and finally cleaning up the economy. Then again, there are a few sensible bankers out there who are willing to say "mea culpa" and suggest we bring back Glass-Steagall.
Some of them still believe that if they just pour enough alcohol on top of budget cuts, they can bail themselves out—hoping for some magical "click" where the drunkard suddenly decides to get back to work. It isn’t going to happen. If anything, they'll just destroy what little foundation is left that could actually serve the public good. The desire to keep spending remains, even when looking at a small nation like the US facing massive deficits. You see people drowning in debt, much of it tied up in foreign currency loans, all while we don't even require a minimum 20% down payment on those debts. Why?
Because they’re raking in billions in net profit. At least according to the official numbers...
Those of us sitting on gold and silver shouldn't be bothered by this kind of development. Personally, given my situation, I'm hardly concerned. If budget cuts happen and people are forced to pay out-of-pocket for prescriptions, profits will just climb due to those extra margins. Not only that, but it means immediate cash flow for the boss, rather than waiting indefinitely for Medicare to process a claim. People prioritize medicine over almost anything else—even before groceries. Eventually, they'll be turning to Caritas just to afford bread. That’s exactly what pushes my salary even higher. It’s a nightmare for the public, of course, but nobody actually wants that to happen.
I have absolutely no intention of defending those pharmaceutical lobbyists and their fake products. Not even slightly.
Take that recent Hippocrates case, for instance. They went after people from some small firm that, by the way, actually kept prescription drug prices reasonable. Meanwhile, the big players with their inflated price tags continue to swim freely. On the other hand, you have these banks constantly trying to justify themselves and begging for bailouts at the expense of taxpayers—basically anyone earning Dollars. How much was it last time? A trillion, or maybe even more. That extra trillion just guts the purchasing power of the money I worked hard to earn. It’s no wonder people are looking for any honest way to protect themselves. When this all finally plays out remains to be seen, but don't expect the banks to favor deflation; they wouldn't have anything left to collect.
I like to think I grasp these basic truths, because once you strip away the layers of nonsense, things are actually quite simple.
To borrow a line from Hemingway for good measure:
Men in suits and ties roam the plazas, shaking hands with bellies full of filth...
Instead of heading to the restroom to clean themselves up, or simply admitting they messed up.
And making mistakes is just part of being human...

Just delaying the inevitable...

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&...0noR44DFdPnKVg

analogharbor44 said:And who’s even going to hold all that US debt over the next five years? The Federal Reserve? Just the fact that they aren't a reserve currency and are totally stagnating proves that even if Americans lose that top spot, the dollar won't collapse. No matter how much you guys blow your horns about it. The dollar is staying put!

Monetary inflation will eventually take its toll. It might take ten years, but the dollar is certainly going to lose a significant chunk of its purchasing power. On the flip side, I don't see any scenario where gold takes a major hit given this level of money printing.

Dennis Myers6 said:Look, HI5, I don't mean to be rude, but honestly, we’re just a bunch of absolute suckers—these over-analytical types who somehow decide to dump money into failing nations and their collapsing economies despite everything being totally illogical.
I guess we just love them or whatever, choosing them even when it makes zero sense from any kind of economic standpoint... it is what it is, I suppose.
🙂

That's fair, but eventually the system will clear its debt and move forward. I wouldn't touch bonds right now, but who knows what the future holds?
Plus, trading with negative yields can actually be a smart move for security reasons if we hit a heavy deflationary period. You never know. Sometimes things make perfect sense even when they defy all logic.

Dennis Myers6 said:Germany just sold off bonds at a negative yield, which is wild.
Well, when it's time to party, you know it's gonna be crazy.
And I guess people—or sheep, or whatever you want to call them—just keep having this blind, absolute faith in their own homeland, even though the folks in charge basically exploit them to death (because let's face it, the government isn't exactly rolling out the red carpet for ten thousand new, smart Americans just because they all have massive MPF accounts and look as good as Goran Višnjić or Nives Celzijus).
Stay tuned...
🙂

I was referring to the bonds of those Eurozone countries currently facing a crisis. It isn't the same thing if interest rates are around 2%, like in Germany, versus 6%, like in Spain, while using the exact same currency. Officially, inflation hasn't hit that level in the Eurozone yet. I certainly wouldn't underestimate deflationary pressures. But once interest rates climb because money starts losing its value...

Dennis Myers6 said:Right now, people are out here grabbing bonds with negative real yields just to try and hold onto some scrap of "value," but you're basically daydreaming that bond prices are gonna hit the moon... as if someone's just gonna magically fix one of those massive, core reasons why the West even functions—both on paper and in the real world—which is basically having debt that gets absolutely shredded by inflation.
Correct me if I'm totally missing the mark here, I guess.
LATER-🙂

Nobody buys bonds with a negative yield. Inflation isn't quite there yet outside of the US, but it's highly probable for the European Union too, given that debts and deficits can no longer be covered. Once a mania hits precious metals and cash loses its worth, that's when money becomes undervalued. That might be the time to enter an undervalued asset. You'll just need to time it right—likely when the crisis actually starts getting resolved and interest rates remain high. Essentially, once the value of cash (read: debt) is wiped out, combining debt write-offs could create breathing room for the economy to function again, which would allow those bonds to actually be paid out.

quiettrucker12 said:Gold is interesting right now because we’re in that middle ground where commodities thrive while currencies sink during a crisis. But don't get it twisted—that doesn't mean currencies are going extinct, just like stocks didn't vanish back in 2008 or when things tanked again in 2014. I say "middle ground" because gold isn't particularly exciting during a total apocalypse, nor is it helpful in some rosy fantasy where someone magically wipes out debt without inflation. The ones getting hit hardest will be the funds and individuals sitting on mountains of cash. There's way too much of it floating around. The smart money? The few who actually time it right by pivoting from commodities into undervalued stocks.

Once cash loses its value, it might actually become interesting because interest rates would have to climb. For instance, if you’re holding ten-year Treasuries yielding 10% while inflation is hovering at 15%, that could look like a massive win if the government manages to slash the deficit and stall inflation in the meantime. It’s a plausible scenario; they won't have the money to spend anyway, so deflationary pressures will linger, keeping cash somewhat valuable. Creating enough capacity for hyperinflation is difficult when most people are broke.
If a new credit cycle were to somehow kickstart itself, the story changes entirely.
On the other hand, it's unlikely that stocks will fall significantly below the value of cash in an inflationary environment. You just need to identify which stocks are undervalued, much like how gold and silver were positioned around 2000.

Velocity could continue its descent; what actually matters is the scale of that drop relative to inflation. Take the US, for instance—if we used the pre-1980 Federal Reserve methodology, inflation would have been sitting around 6% back in early 2012. That discrepancy alone highlights just how much money was printed, considering prices should have plummeted given the falling velocity and the contraction in the money supply.

Anthony Evans78 said:I’ve said this before, but I need to hammer home two points.
First off, deflationary theories are a fantasy. As long as the old guard calling the shots can print money, they’re going to print it.
Stagflation is already knocking at the door, and there’s a growing chance we hit hyperinflation in the US the moment those dollars held overseas start flooding back home.
Second, the fundamental mistake people make is assuming the Federal Reserve and others actually intend to help the economy. They don't. Their only goal is to bail out their buddies in the banking sector; if anyone else happens to benefit by accident, well, that's just luck...
People aren't spending on metals—they’re hoarding them. It's a subtle distinction, but most people miss it. 🙂

A deflationary scenario seems unlikely to me as well, though I wouldn't rule it out entirely.
We agree on the printing. However, figures like Jim Rogers and Marc Faber talk about this inflationary bubble eventually bursting, suggesting that the deflationists will eventually be proven right. The only question is at what level. Will gold hit $5,000 or perhaps $2,000? At some point, printing stops delaying the inevitable. It’s the same deal with interest rates; raising them while staying below actual inflation only fuels more inflation by increasing costs for those in debt, keeping real interest rates negative. Money will lose its purchasing power, but once we reach saturation, we face either theoretical hyperinflation or sharp deflation.
Massimo wrote about how the easiest way to rob the public is through a combination of both. Hyperinflation seems less logical from a banker's perspective because if consumer debt is wiped out, there is nothing left to squeeze out of people. This whole business with credit ratings seems to point in that direction.
So, a systemic intervention might happen sooner, during a period of higher inflation when debts are recalibrated. That yields the highest total return. Regardless of the path taken, the system has to function, which leads me to believe precious metals will be more expensive than they are now.

quiettrucker12 said:I was talking about the end of the last wave, this current correction, and the upcoming surge—what's actually happening right now. I’ve said it before: those buying at $8, $10, or $12 (I think Robert Vaughn10 was one of them) were absolutely right.

This place turned into a total cult a long time ago, and frankly, I hate it.

Personally, I started buying when silver was around $33 per ounce, roughly late 2009 and most of 2010, just before the rally kicked off in September 2010. Now it's sitting near 180-$63. But if I take that silver to a local dealer today, I'll get nothing—maybe $32 per ounce. So, you go for it if you're foolish enough to pay $1.00 per gram; otherwise, you don't. A portion of my silver is in old coins rather than .999 fine. My best buy, by the way, was 13 ounces in old silver coins for $333.
The idea was to get more ounces for my money, which I did, but we need a massive price surge and actual mania for my silver to even approach spot value. If someone believes in silver and still does, that's me. However, I occasionally feel frustrated that people won't look at things from a different perspective. Take Billy, Tiger, and the rest. Sure, Charlemagne, San Francisco, and others chime in, and it's good they do, but I get the sense they have a somewhat dismissive attitude toward this crisis and what might unfold. That wasn't the case with previous critics. Correct me if I'm wrong.
All in all, I think my analysis of the situation is solid, and I don't expect to miss the mark long-term. I doubt the premium on .999 bullion will stay at 20% or higher if the price hits, say, 150 USD per ounce, so my "junk" silver should ideally yield a net profit compared to pure bullion. We'll see.
None of this matters much, but there I am, rambling.🙂
That's quite a bold silver forecast; personally, I doubt it. Maybe 75 USD in my opinion.

quiettrucker12 said:Exactly. It all plays out perfectly for us. We get another two-and-a-half-year bull run in precious metals, followed by a correction that makes this one look like nothing—something along the lines of the 2008 crash. We managed to navigate this current correction within a $100 range (well, at least with gold; silver was a headache, not to mention the miners), but we're definitely going to feel the sting of the next one.

Based on your logic, what are the peak values for gold and silver at the top of this wave versus the final bubble at the end of the decade? And let's assume we're talking current USD. I realize this is pure speculation, but since you're making forecasts, I'd like to hear them...

I wouldn't rule out the possibility of stronger deflation, though if it happens, I suspect it’ll be short-lived. That’s why I decided to hold some cash.
I don't believe they'll let a total collapse happen, even if the fact remains that M2-base money has plummeted by 25%. That's incredibly deflationary. As for this QE, it seems calculated enough to avoid immediate hyperinflation, instead bleeding into specific asset classes over time. People will see their standard of living erode without even realizing it at first; it’ll likely take two or three years before inflation hits double digits. The market could swing either way, and frankly, the timing and strength of these moves remain questionable. But make no mistake, the long-term trend is inflationary. Massimo has written extensively on this.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sUBJs28u5Ek

Watch the first part of the interview, specifically from 8:40 through 13:00.

Gold should be viewed as insurance against all these maneuvers. Personally, I have no intention of selling until I see them wind down the QE and pivot back to sensible policy—assuming, say, silver doesn't hit at least five times its current value. It's unrealistic to expect the government to guarantee the average American's standard of living with this kind of currency, so precious metals will likely see massive price surges as a hedge. If they stick to the old playbook, we'll face massive imbalances that could threaten the entire system. They won't allow that to happen.

Anthony Evans78 said:It’s been obvious for a long time—they'll just kill off paper currency, just like they've done every single time in history.
Is it simple? Not even close. Especially for those who still haven't connected the dots and think things are just going to fix themselves.

I wouldn't bet on the dollar collapsing entirely. Inflation? Sure. But total dissolution? I doubt it.