quiettrucker12 said:We’re still waiting. Gold needs to clear $1,700 before we can officially call this an uptrend. On the flip side, if it slips below $1,660—last week's floor—we've got a problem.
We were at $1,620 once too, and nobody blinked. A move lower would be tough; the pressure is heavy, but it's holding steady enough.
Dennis Fisher5 said:The truth is, our economy isn't going to truly bounce back as long as we're dealing with such an incredibly strong dollar, so in my opinion, he's actually doing a perfectly fine job handling his responsibilities....
Dennis Fisher5 said:But you know, the absolute worst part of this whole scenario is that we probably won't even see hyperinflation. What actually happens is that the things you actually need will rise in price alongside gold, while the stuff you don't care about will just stagnate, and the real kicker is that wages will stay exactly where they are, or worse, we might not even have them at all.
So, for example, if your paycheck is currently $1667, gas is $3.25, and bread is $2.25, we could end up looking at paychecks stuck at $1667 while gas jumps to $10 and bread hits $6.75, all while dealing with extra imaginary taxes.
I am not really expecting to make a massive profit on precious metals, but rather I am just looking to preserve the value of my capital.
And that is just the beauty of it.🙂
Regarding...The hyperinflation of the dollar.We'll have to see if there's actually any potential here, but for now, Governor Vujčić seems to have everything under control.
neondriver5 said:Look, we’re talking about less than half a Dollar for a single gram. It’s practically pocket change. It doesn't matter if it's a three percent swing over two days.
Look, nobody invests for a day or two. You invest for the long haul... And I’m not looking at two or three percent gains. I'm up ten times those measly numbers you're talking about, simply because I don't panic and exit my position every time there's a tiny wiggle in the market. The volatility goes both ways, sure, but it stays relatively steady around $1,350. The all-time high was near $1,500, so take a look at where Gold stands. Gold preserves purchasing power over the long term.
What a disaster. $20 an ounce? Wake me up when it dips below $1,000 per ounce... Until then, I’ll be sitting here like a loaded gun, just waiting for silver. It would be absolutely brilliant if that ratio dropped below 60.
Sure, but Andersen is playing the game and winning. It gives off major Hans Christian Andersen vibes.😂😉 The party is fine by me; I'm glad it ends this way. I have my doubts, though. Back to gold... Just last week, after getting some much-needed downtime from work, I took a deeper look at the gold charts and data. I was actually stunned by how high the price remains despite all the immense downward pressure. It’s almost unbelievable how high it sits compared to the force trying to squeeze it down... I ended up buying silver that day, trying to look further ahead regardless of the mounting pressure on the metal.
Regarding gold, the issue isn't that time seems to be dilating or stalling; it’s that the velocity of money is relatively low. When that velocity suddenly, unpleasantly, and unexpectedly accelerates, gold will inevitably spike to correct itself.😉 On the contrary, if gold doesn't bounce back—and keep bouncing—paper assets might just end up lost in the weeds because we'll lose our compass and our yardstick. Add to that the "paper junkies" shorting paper gold, the lending of gold which feels like trying to measure something from a different inertial frame, and the artificially depressing "constraints" and the withholding of cash for gold investments—especially when Americans are involved—and I conclude that gold is under immense pressure. The current price isn't actually that bad. That said, you can't completely dismiss paper. Paper allows gold to "breathe" in the long run, because imagining global trade occurring solely through physical bullion is impossible. There has to be a medium, and that's paper. Without it, trading wouldn't even be possible. But with a properly presented gold price, things become much easier for the entire system, to the point where paper investing can actually make sense. The moral of the story is that everyone gets their feedback eventually, no matter how much they try to evade or deny it. Gold has already endured quite a lot, and while there may be attempts to manipulate it further, those paper investors will only end up hitting their heads harder against the wall. They'll essentially hang themselves, because there won't be any metric left to support the system.😉
Moving on to the latest chess match... White has three pawns, two of which are protecting the king alongside two rooks. By the way, it is entirely possible to win a game without using one or even both hands, even while your opponent has both hands available. You just have to be a virtuoso with your pawns, knights, and bishops... That was demonstrated by an unspecified. Anyway, regarding the game, White sacrificed the queen... the main thing is to keep your head on your shoulders. On the other hand, Black has nothing left to strike with; not a single pawn near or far, the queen is crouching on the back rank, and the black king is a lone target on the opposite side of the queen. That is the state of affairs in this arena of conflict and support. There, a little off-topic...
Gold and silver are finishing strong. Gold is sitting just a few bucks under this morning's mark, while silver actually managed to flip into the green. That correction? It’s nearly erased. If we hold these levels through the close, it's a pretty encouraging sign. Moving forward, I want to see some actual volatility. Even if prices dip during sharp corrections, movement is better than stagnation.
A very good day. If this trend holds, things are looking encouraging. Following a brutal correction that felt like a freefall into an abyss, we’ve seen a reversal. Granted, it hasn't reclaimed all lost ground, but it was a solid $20 move from today's lows. The faster and more frequent these bounces become following heavy sell-offs, the higher the probability of another major rally. I want to see more days where we gain at least $20, and even more days where corrections are wiped out almost immediately. That would signal the bulls are finally seizing control. But let's be clear: these moves need to happen more often, and they need to stay at that $20 threshold. One more thing... if gold and silver weren't significant, they wouldn't be under such intense pressure right now as they attempt to defend the dollar following the latest news on quantitative easing. This morning, it felt as though the market had completely lost its compass, driven purely by panic. And when people start acting out of fear, they tend to make poor decisions and miscalculate the path ahead.
dustyheron5, forget about technology for a second and just go buy some gold.😉 The fact that an investor as established and well-connected as Marijan Filipović—someone who clearly knows how this works—doesn't hold any gold says everything you need to know about where we are in this bull market. If two members of the Federal Reserve so much as sneeze, the dollar spikes and gold tanks instantly. This volatility is going to simmer for a long time; today’s movement was exactly the signal I was hoping for. As Marc Faber rightly put it: "it will backfire."
Nobody saw the extension of the lower payroll tax rate coming. With the deficit likely hitting around a trillion dollars, the Federal Reserve will have no choice but to monetize. That’s a win for gold and silver. Personally, I don't think a growing balance sheet matters much in the long run. Theoretically, you could even shrink the balance sheet and still trigger inflation if the Federal Reserve pulls liquidity out of the banks 😉, while simultaneously printing slightly less than what they withdrew to buy bonds. That creates money flowing directly into the economy rather than just moving stagnant cash sitting in bank vaults . As for this supposed euphoria... there isn't a trace of it. Honestly, I hope this lack of excitement lasts for years. We might start seeing more frequent $20–$30 swings, deeper corrections, and then immediate counter-trend reactions once those dips hit. Once that pattern establishes itself, we could see a massive surge in gold and silver prices. As my colleague Zvrk puts it, we are looking at a "new big wave in gold and silver." Though, if you ask me, it would be wise to wait a bit before jumping in. Regarding the balance sheet... it’s highly questionable whether the data provided by the Federal Reserve is even accurate. For instance, the Federal Reserve doesn't even publish M3 anymore, and according to Mike Maloney, it's actually shrinking. If contraction were the primary driver, we should be seeing significant deflation by now, which clearly isn't happening . If the Federal Reserve is withholding certain facts, they probably have a reason. It’s possible they haven't disclosed some recent rounds of money printing either .
graniteviper37 said:Let's be real—that’s not even the middle class. In the US, there's been this running idea for ages that once an individual starts pulling in over $250,000 a year, you've crossed into the wealthy territory. Even Barack Obama’s unofficial benchmark was around $200k for a single person—which is $250k for a couple—and honestly, according to some polls, most Americans think the line is drawn at $150,000. If those folks are the "wealthy," then where the hell is the actual middle class?...
If you ask some theorists, this whole "impossible deal" drama was basically scripted and agreed upon behind closed doors not too long ago. The whole point is to look clean in front of the voters while setting the stage to push through a massive, totally new budget control act that fundamentally reshapes everything on multiple levels.
And yeah, technically they didn't fall off the cliff—because that "fiscal cliff" is really just the economic fallout from being unable to agree on a decision in the first place.
I never claimed someone making $250k or $400k is middle class... But that threshold certainly encompasses them. The higher that limit goes, the larger the deficit becomes, which was the whole point. A larger deficit should drive inflation, creating a favorable environment for gold and silver. However, I do believe they have fallen off a fiscal cliff in a sense. As my colleague correctly noted, it happened "a long time ago." How high that cliff is and how long the descent lasts remains to be seen, which will dictate the long-term consequences. My initial thought was that they were attempting a mid-air rescue, but it's now glaringly obvious that wasn't the plan. The fact that they won't raise taxes on the middle class speaks volumes to me. While you can never rule out a sudden policy pivot, I highly doubt it's happening here.
quiettrucker12 said:They decided to loosen the reins a long time ago. There's no turning back now. Ben basically kicked off round three of QE with no expiration date, giving himself the green light to pump in as much cash as he sees fit. In the context of a 12-year gold bull market, missing the fiscal cliff is practically a rounding error. Politicians don't think like we do—the Senate passed that deal 89 to 8, while QE3 went through 11 to 1.
Of course, everyone will claim gold surged because of the fiscal cliff once the new QE kicks in... I don't buy it. There are much bigger forces at play here.
Now we wait to see which day liquidity decides to flee into the stock market. We'll find out if that triggers a final bottom for precious metals or if the 100-week moving average holds steady.
What bigger forces? What specifically are you getting at? Speak up, but watch yourself—being out in Utah, you might get monitored by some "supercomputer." Careful what you say...😂 And one more thing: apparently, all tax legislation has to originate in the House of Representatives, not the Senate. If that info is right, then the Senate basically violated the Constitution. It's hard to believe they weren't aware of that. Who knows how this mess ends. The longer this standoff between the two chambers drags on, the higher the chance of a downgrade, which could have implications far beyond the USA. This could stretch all the way into March, especially since Obamacare is up for renewal at year-end. Funding that is going to be a massive headache. Throw in the fact that the Japanese seem hell-bent on weakening the yen, and Merkel claiming the crisis is nowhere near over... As for the USA, regardless of the outcome, it looks like middle-class tax hikes are becoming a reality. I doubt the Republicans will fight that specific part; they've been backed into a corner. However, if the bickering continues over other points—like that extra $200 billion I can see on the horizon—then yes, the deficit will likely hit $800 billion at the very least. Probably much more. Gold should move up, and silver logically follows...
Washington, D.C. has officially fallen off the fiscal cliff. Or at least, that's the official line. The Senate voted to maintain current tax rates for anyone earning under $400k. This means the middle class might actually dodge a tax hike—assuming the House of Representatives agrees during their meeting this afternoon. We'll see, though I doubt the Republican majority would dare vote against this; they aren't about to hand the middle class a tax increase. Spending cuts are also being pushed back, but only by two months, right when our ability to borrow more hits its limit. If things stay on this trajectory, especially regarding middle-class taxes, the deficit looks set to hit at least $800 billion by the end of March, depending on what happens in two months. The math is still being finalized, but in my view, this is long-term bullish for gold and silver. We have to wait and see what March brings, but I highly doubt they’ll risk not raising the debt ceiling; they’d go bankrupt instantly. This trend could suggest a medium-term shift in how things play out. Printing money out of thin air without any long-term sterilization will eventually lead to inflation. It might not happen overnight, but it's coming. To be honest, I briefly thought they were going to tighten the belt. Now? That's off the table. They've decided to blow the bubble until it pops. All things considered, gold should clear $2,000, and silver ought to hit at least $40 by 2013. Though, predicting silver is always a thankless task.
Where gold goes next year? Impossible to say until this fiscal standoff reaches a resolution. If the deficit drops below $600 billion—which is the absolute "best-case scenario"—gold won't move much, maybe even pull back slightly. But if the deficit sits at $1.1 trillion, gold will have to break past $2,000. Right now, the most likely play is that nothing gets resolved, leading to automatic tax hikes and budget cuts. This could drag on for a while, making it difficult for gold to rally. Meanwhile, the dollar would likely strengthen. The only thing that might flip the script is a potential credit downgrade if they fail to reach a deal. A downgrade *might* spark a gold rally, but that’s a big "maybe." It remains to be seen. Honestly, it looks like these people aren't even pretending to work hard to prevent tax increases for the middle class; there isn't even any serious negotiation happening. I also find that obaminites' proposals, while far from perfect, sound more rational regarding middle-class taxes. On the other hand, I find myself closer to the Republicans regarding their spending on everything under the sun, though I think they are wildly off base concerning defense costs. Personally, I’m betting on a stalemate where no deal is reached, the middle class gets hit, and the agony continues—this time in the form of an official recession. Regardless of the outcome, the USA will continue exporting paper, aka inflation, because the balance of payments deficit persists in both scenarios. Parallel to that, Asians will continue to accumulate gold as a hedge...
We’re looking at a $600 billion fiscal cliff. Even the Democratic leader in the Senate is sounding the alarm on this one. Solutions might be hammered out over the next few months, though it remains to be seen if Republicans will agree to any middle-class tax cuts once those increases kick in on January 1st... This fiscal cliff involves a laundry list of tax hikes, including property taxes. It's the same old symptom everywhere: raising taxes on everyone—even those with minimal assets—just to pad the treasury. I doubt it'll be enough; the long-term unfounded liabilities are simply too massive. However, if we do fall off this cliff, there is a slight chance that inflation might actually stay somewhat subdued for the next three years. Predicting anything beyond that is difficult. But, if they were to scrap Obamacare, trim pensions slightly, or force foreign investors to take a haircut on bond payouts, the game could potentially continue for quite a while... That move could send gold into a correction, making it less popular. We might see more paper losses in the near term. If that scenario plays out, I'll be waiting for a dip in gold—and especially silver, which could drop quite deeply. During a recession, the gold-to-silver ratio tends to rise, meaning silver ends up being the undervalued play... That said, the ratio would need to hit at least 65 before I consider entering the market. This tightening is serious, but likely insufficient given the scale of unfounded liabilities and the reality that the credit pipes will eventually have to be opened again. A good comparison for these austerity measures is Europe. In Greece, they saw wage cuts of up to 30%; in Italy, Mario Monti introduced a tax on primary residences that the current left-leaning leadership is now trying to roll back. The French are doing similar cuts, and their proposal for a 75% tax on the wealthy is particularly wild. It's common knowledge that cumulative taxes can swallow over half of one's wealth, but seeing a single tax rate hit 75% is something I haven't encountered yet. Summing it all up, there is a clear global trend toward taxing citizens more heavily and stripping away rights, all in an attempt to stave off high inflation for a little while longer. Angela Merkel made it clear: "Europeans should expect a lot of hard work and sweat." This is the current trend, which makes a significant surge in gold in the immediate future seem less likely. Still, I remain moderately optimistic on a 5-10 year horizon because precious metals represent real money, not just a hollow promise of purchasing power that can't be kept. Not to mention, monetary inflation is still far too high. Personally, I've grown tired of seeing silver up about 50% and gold up 25%; it's hard to call them bad investments, but perhaps they aren't quite as stellar as I originally thought.
This news might be a little dated, but the principle remains the same. Siphoning off profits through paper assets on both sides—to manufacture a false sense of stability while simultaneously encouraging everyday Americans to dump their gold at buyback stations—comes with a heavy long-term price tag...
How does the fiscal cliff look to everyone right now? Under the most optimistic forecasts, we might cut the deficit in half—down to about $550 billion—which would shave roughly 3% off the GDP. The same analysts predicted a 4% growth rate for 2014, which seems unrealistic once you factor in actual inflation. In my view, you need to add at least 1-2% to those GDP numbers and another $100 billion to the deficit, bringing it to $650 billion. That’s still a massive deficit, and the economy will likely sink by a real rate of 3% to 5% of GDP. That is a serious recession. According to the Government, it might look like 0% if they use even more liberal inflation metrics. On the flip side, a smaller deficit should strengthen the dollar from a government spending standpoint. Then there is the question of how long they will persist with Qe given all the other pressures. With the fiscal cliff looming, unemployment will likely rise by at least 1%, and since inflation will be somewhat masked, the Fed will have a free hand to continue monetizing as much as they want because they won't hit their target benchmarks for unemployment or inflation... The bottom line: taxes are going up for the middle class in various forms. The middle class is going to get squeezed hard. The entire economy will feel it too. It’s a dangerous cocktail of deflationary and inflationary pressures. It makes things incredibly difficult for small investors; losing some ground feels almost inevitable. If the deficit drops significantly as forecasted, gold might correct below $1,500. Maybe Jim Rogers actually has a point there. Sure, that is still higher than my entry price, but when I account for inflation, I haven't really come out ahead... Silver could potentially drop below $25 in that scenario. If the ratio falls below 60, or especially if it climbs above 65, I’m buying. Looking at a 7-10 year horizon, I don't see precious metal prices being significantly lower in terms of these volatile currencies. Eventually, they'll be begging for more stimulus and more money printing. I won't even get started on healthcare and pension costs. Those two alone drive the deficit, not to mention defense spending, which most Republicans refuse to touch. We ought to be cutting and taxing aggressively to protect the dollar's long-term value. This is serious, but it isn't enough. It is impossible to meet all current obligations and debts using today's purchasing power of the dollar... However, if they want to stretch things out and temporarily blunt the loss of purchasing power, they can. That might mean gold loses its momentum to break above $2,000 in the near term... When calculating gold's trajectory, you absolutely have to factor in Europe. Deflationary pressures and austerity have been brutal. Greece, Italy, and France are slashing spending, and Spain is doing something similar; they are all struggling with official unemployment rates north of 25%. Right now, it doesn't look like gold is headed much higher. The only exception is if the crisis deepens and tax revenues tank, making deficits larger and the need for printing even greater. I doubt they'll allow the contraction to exceed 5% in either the US or Europe; they'll aim for a mix... It is also anyone's guess how the market will react to an announced US downgrade if no deal is reached. Gold might be viewed as a safe haven, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it. It is more likely that stocks will take a hit since they are sitting at very high levels, especially in the US, while the dollar should strengthen regardless of what the agencies say. Logic dictates that, though predicting the short-term movement in this mix is tough. As I mentioned, logic doesn't always apply to this market. Of course, all this speculation becomes moot if Washington actually reaches a deal. Otherwise, Obama will have a hard time explaining to his middle-class constituents why so many taxes are being hiked. But then again, who cares when he doesn't have to face reelection...😉