Posts by Eric Fox7

Kenneth Ward said:Werder Bremen vs. Wolfsburg—both teams to score at 1.50 via HL

@ 1.60 over at PSK

You really ought to check in with the Louisiana Lottery about that

Zlatan Ibrahimović scores @ 2.25 (Parlay) 4/10

Evian-Paris Saint-Germain 2 @ 1.60 7/10

So, we’ve got the French Cup quarterfinals coming up—Paris Saint-Germain, who—let's be honest—are basically cruising toward another title after this long drought, are heading out to face Evian. Evian is mostly just sweating through their relegation battle right now, and frankly, they don't have the depth to really push the Parisians.

Plus, despite being a bit heavy-set lately and playing some pretty unconvincing football, Carl usually finds a way to grind out a win—they even came incredibly close to pulling off an upset against a powerhouse like FC Barcelona in the Champions League.
Zlatan Ibrahimović is the top scorer for Paris Saint-Germain, netting 26 league goals in 28 appearances (and he’s been scoring in both the Champions League and the cup, too), so he’s the guy everyone looks to. I think he could find the net again here. Looking back at their matchups this season, the Parisians won 4-0 at home, where Zlatan Ibrahimović scored the opener—this will be their first trip over to play Evian.

Inter Milan-AS Roma (1:2) over 2.5 @ 1.65 / BTTS Yes @ 1.95

It's the second leg of the cup tie. After losing 2-1 in Rome, Inter Milan—featuring our own Mateo Kovačić—is hosting AS Roma, trying to claw back from a lead held by Francesco Totti and his crew.

Whenever these two go at it, I expect a wide-open game with plenty of chances and goals. Both sides have decent attacking talent, but their defenses? Honestly, they're criminal. It’s been a weird shift for Inter, since their defense wasn't exactly leaking goals like this in recent seasons, but they've been giving up far too many lately.


RSC Anderlecht-SK Lokeren 1 @ 1.40 8/10

The odds aren't massive, but this one is huge for RSC Anderlecht. After a pretty dismal start to the second half of the season—just two draws and a loss—they absolutely have to win this. And given how ridiculous the league format is—where they basically halved all the points from the regular season—they’re sitting just one point ahead of Standard Liège and KRC Genk (though they have a game in hand). As for SK Lokeren, they're the only team in this six-team playoff group with zero chance at the title, so I'm banking on RSC Anderlecht finally getting a result.

Lokomotiva vs Cibalia (1:1) 1 @ 1.60 8/10

It’s the cup rematch where Lokomotiva is basically looking at a historic final spot. After that first leg ended 1-1, a scoreless draw would actually be enough to send them through—but honestly, I think the home side will just handle this routine-style, maybe even via a penalty 😍
. Just a couple rounds ago, Cibalia hosted Lokomotiva and cruised to a comfortable 2-0 win. They desperately need points to stay up in the league, whereas Lokomotiva is eyeing a spot in the Europa League—either through the cup run or by finishing just one point behind second-place Hajduk Split in the standings.

Since I have a hunch there's going to be a penalty in this one, I'm also putting some action on Kramarić to score @ 2.40 (PSK) 3/10

Locco? Yes! 👋


PAOK-Asteras Tripolis 1 @ 1.70 6/10

First leg of the Greek Cup, with PAOK hosting Asteras. PAOK is absolutely cooking right now—they've gone undefeated in their last 11 matches, with 8 wins and 3 draws, and they've only conceded a single goal in their last six outings. On the flip side, the visitors are struggling; despite being solid in third place in the league (though PAOK sits in second with a 6-point cushion), they're on a three-game skid with a dismal 2-8 goal difference. My gut feeling? Even if they lose, the visitors might feel okay with a narrow defeat—provided they manage to get an away goal.

There’s only one match played in the US Open Cup—just look at how they handled the final stages last season: http://int.soccerway.com/national/tu.../final-stages/)

I think he’s saying this game doesn't really matter—he was probably referring to the fact that they're already sitting pretty with a 2-0 lead from the first leg 🙂

Yeah, I always figured the Greek league was a bit of an underdog circuit, but man—only 39.4% hitting the over? And seeing 13% of matches end in a scoreless 0-0 draw... that's just brutal. 😲

Roger Phillips said:Looking back now, I’m actually a bit stunned😲—the entire weekend in MLS passed without a single Over🤣... just one lone match ended with both teams finding the net...

I wanted to reopen the debate regarding which leagues are best suited for betting on Overs/Unders (or those high-scoring 3+ goals games), and it got me thinking about how Turkish teams have gone absolutely wild this season, consistently churning out high-scoring affairs. Then, suddenly, you get a weekend like this one where not a single game hits the Over (and they've still got Besiktas playing today). But, setting this weird outlier aside, the Turkish league has really caught me off guard this year with the sheer volume of matches hitting that 3+ goal mark—I don't recall that being the norm in previous seasons, though 🤔maybe I'm misremembering
. Still, the average has jumped from 2.44 last season to 2.67 goals per game this term.
It’s common knowledge that the Dutch leagues are usually goal fests.
Looking at other leagues, there's a glaring drop in scoring in the Swiss league
. Most matches there tend to end Under—you can see it in the numbers, with an average of just 2.41 goals per game (down from 2.61 last season and 2.98 the year before)—that's a pretty significant dip in offensive efficiency.

Perhaps a better metric for gauging the profitability of Over/Under betting is the percentage of matches in a specific league that finish with more than three total goals:
Over 2.5 (over 3.5):

English Premier League - 56.7% (32.2%)
English Championship - 52.4% (27.7%)
French Ligue 1 - 45.6% (29.4%)
German Bundesliga - 53.6% (32.2%)
Spanish La Liga - 54% (32.4%)
Dutch Eredivisie - 58.1% (36.7%)
Dutch Eerste Divisie - 62.7% (39.2%)
Italian Serie A - 49.2% (28.8%)
Swiss Super League - 40.7% (23.7%)—and as I mentioned, a noticeable decline
Turkish Süper Lig - 51.9% (29.6%)
Portuguese Primeira Liga - 53% (34%)

To my mind, it's somewhat surprising that, on average, more games hit the Over in England than in the Bundesliga. Of course, you have to track individual clubs; for instance, a whopping 76% of Borussia Dortmund matches end in an Over (with 48% being Over 3.5), while Hoffenheim, Schalke, and Leverkusen hover around the 70% mark.

In France, the standout is Bastia with 72% of their games going Over😲 (47% being Over 3.5). In the Premier League, Wigan sits at 71%, and they are closely followed by Liverpool, Newcastle, and Tottenham, all seeing roughly two-thirds of their matches go Over. In Spain, it's expected that Barcelona leads the pack at 87.7% (67.7% Over 3.5; 38.7% Over 4.5)🙏 and Real Madrid at 67.7%.

Over in the Netherlands, PSV is dominating at 86.7% (63.3% Over 3.5), while AZ and Vitesse sit at 70%. In the Dutch second tier, teams like Almere, Dordrecht, Eindhoven, and Maastricht are above 70%, whereas Fortuna Sittard is well below the average at 39.3%, along with Telstar at 44.4%.

The Italians are predictably struggling to find the net, with Roma being the sole exception at 62.5% Over (largely thanks to the early part of the season and that "Zemanlandia" style of play). When it comes to the Portuguese side of things, it's worth mentioning Nacional.(68%) for Benfica (74%), while Maritimo is sitting at a measly 32% over.
I’m actually a bit puzzled by the averages over in Turkey—I honestly had this feeling that way more games were ending over, but it looks like Besiktas is the only one really popping off at 75% 🤔

Anyway, I don't want to go overboard here, but if you're looking for more numbers, everything is laid out right here.

pet 11:30 2367 WSydWan/odg3+-BrisbRoar da @ 2,20 (over 2,5 @ 2,00 (live))

It's the playoff semifinal matchup in the MLS between the regular season winners—who are basically league rookies at this point—Sydney and Brisbane. The last meeting wrapped up 2-1 in favor of Sydney (though those first two goals were pretty much isolated incidents). Honestly, I’m leaning toward the over here because the home side is on an absolute tear—they've found the back of the net in 12 straight matches, and looking back at their last 17, they scored in 16 of them. They tend to trade blows, too, giving up goals just as often as they score. Meanwhile, the visitors barely scraped into the playoffs, but after knocking off Adelaide in the first round, they're more than capable of finding a way past the Wanderers' defense at least once.

If you’d actually bothered to look at the rules, you’d realize you just broke Rule 2.
It’s basically a pub brawl in the stands over at the stadium.

It's possible in the US

Oh, really? I hadn't realized that. I wonder how the other countries in the European Union handled their regulations for this kind of thing?

Aha, there’s the catch. But you actually got it backward when you were saying betting isn't illegal 🙂

Terry Edwards6 said:It’s just not legal to do it through a standard bank—honestly, half the banks won't even let you try if they catch wind of what you're up to. But, if you stick to things like PayPal, Neteller, or using a Paysafecard, you're totally in the clear legally.
Look, let's get one thing straight—just placing a bet isn't illegal. It’s not like we're out here breaking the law just by putting some skin in the game. 🙂

It looks like you might have hit send a little too early there! I was just getting settled in, but I didn't catch the rest of your thought. What’s on your mind? 🤷

I’ve already written about this at least five times—honestly, I feel like a broken record at this point.

The Department of the Treasury said:X. FOREIGN LOTTERY GAMES

Article 68.

Here’s what’s off-limits:

If you’re sitting there in the States placing bets on foreign gambling sites—you know, using money that’s technically being wagered while physically located on American soil—then we're talking about participating in foreign gaming from within the US.

So, we’re looking at the second round of collecting roles in the States to get in on those sweepstakes being run overseas...

Selling, holding onto, leasing out, or even just running ads and general promotions for foreign scratch-off tickets and gambling cards anywhere within the United States.

I was just scrolling through some legal documentation regarding gambling regulations—specifically looking at the framework governing games of chance—and it really gets you thinking about how much oversight actually exists in this country. It’s one of those dense, dry subjects that most people skip over, but when you start digging into the fine print of how the government regulates betting and gaming, you realize just how massive the regulatory machine is. It’s all about keeping things "fair," or at least creating the illusion of fairness through a mountain of paperwork and strict licensing requirements. You have all these different layers of compliance that every operator has to jump through just to stay in business. It makes you wonder if the rules are actually there to protect the players, or if they're mostly just a way for the state to ensure its cut of the action stays steady. Anyway, I'm just rambling now. It's one of those topics where once you pull the thread, the whole thing starts to unravel. Just my two cents while I caffeinate.

I’ve been thinking about this whole situation—it’s one of those things that feels like it should be simple, right? But then you start peeling back the layers and realize just how messy it all gets. It’s a bit like trying to untangle a knot in a shoelace while wearing oven mitts—frustrating, slightly ridiculous, and ultimately a waste of good time if you don't have the right tools. Anyway, I was looking at what Brian Martinez7 mentioned earlier, and honestly, he's got a point there. There's a certain logic to it, even if it feels a little counterintuitive at first glance. It reminds me of those old debates we used to have about whether the Department of the Treasury should tighten its grip on certain sectors—always a heated topic, always plenty of opinions flying around. But then you have people like jadesailor who look at the same data and see something completely different. And can you blame them? Perspective is everything. It's easy to get caught up in one way of thinking, but if you step back—just for a second—you see the cracks in the argument. It’s funny, really. We spend so much time dissecting these tiny details, arguing over the nuances, and yet the big picture remains stubbornly out of reach. It’s a bit like watching a slow-motion replay of a game where everyone is arguing about whether the ball was out of bounds, while the actual play was something else entirely. I'm not saying anyone is wrong, per se. It’s just... well, it’s complicated. Much more complicated than the headlines would lead you to believe. If you want my two cents, I think we need to stop looking for easy answers and start asking better questions. That might sound a bit cliché, I know, but isn't it usually true?

Steven Collins38 said:I'm expecting goals in this one. The Lions are giving up about two per game, they haven't found the back of the net in their last few outings, and despite a massive losing streak, they consistently hit the OVER.
Meanwhile, Woodlands is one of those teams where anything can happen—they could easily drop two or three, or walk away with a clean sheet.

My money is on both sides finding the net. Even the bookies seem to agree; they've got the Lions at 1.4, while the Both Teams to Score and the OVER are sitting at 1.6.

Anything goes with these guys. Kickoff is at 1:30 PM.

Well, anything's possible. My first parlay already busted anyway, so I'm not even going to single this one.

It’s nothing massive, but the odds look decent enough to poke at. Over in the Singapore league, we’ve got Courts Young Lions vs. Woodlands Wellington. The home side hasn't managed to find the back of the net once in six rounds this season—basically just six straight losses and a goal difference of 0:16 😲. I mean, the opposition isn't exactly world-class either, but I think it’s worth a shot playing home team to not score @ 2.50 (SS). 🤷

Like I said, for a small stake, maybe a 2/10 confidence level here.

Moving over to the Australian league, the first playoff match features the most clinical side from the regular season, Melbourne Victory (they put up 48 goals in 27 rounds) against Perth Glory, who aren't quite as efficient but usually find a way to score. The home team scores plenty but gives up plenty too (45 conceded), and they actually just lost to Perth 2-3 recently.

So, I'm leaning towards over 2.5 @ 1.70 (SS) 8/10 and oddsmaker 3+ @ 2.10 (Lottery) 5/10

Jeremy Lee67 said:Who's actually playing for Brazil here? Seriously though, does anyone have their lineup for today? The Americans are basically the runners-up of the world right now—and honestly, if they had a slightly more defensive-minded coach, they’d be champions—so they are incredibly fired up for games like this.

USA vs. Brazil: 1x 1.85

Brazil head coach Scolari has called up Brazil squad for Italy match. Julio Cesar (QPR), Diego Cavalieri (Fluminense), Dani Alves (Barcelona), Marcelo (Real Madrid), Filipe Luis (Atletico de Madrid), David Luiz (Chelsea), Dede (Vasco de Gama), Dante (Bayern Munich), Thiago Silva (Paris Saint Germain), Paulinho (Corinthians), Ramires (Chelsea), Jean (Fluminense), Fernando (Gremio), Luiz Gustavo (Bayern Munich), Kaka (Real Madrid), Hernandes (Lazio), Oscar (Chelsea), Lucas Moura da Silva (Paris Saint Germain), Neymar (Santos), Fred (Fluminense), Hulk (Zenit St. Petersburg), Diego Costa (Atletico de Madrid) are will be in Brazil squad against Italy.

Looks decent enough to me, though I wouldn't go betting the house on this one.

Charles Doyle6 said:There's really no point trying to pick a winner or a loser in matchups like this. If you absolutely have to play it, the safest bet is probably both teams to score and over 2.5 goals.

I have to side with Charles on that one. 🙂

jadewolf16 said:instead of stressing out over the matchup against Mexico—which is just four days away—we’ve got a much better bet right here, probably just at a slightly lower odd.

March 26th, Swansea

USA vs. Wales — 2 @ 1.60?

We're going to need these points regardless of how Friday turns out—either we'll be scrambling to recover or we'll find some serious momentum chasing first place. As for Wales, their biggest asset is Gareth Bale, though he's nursing a bit of an injury... still not totally clear if he'll even step on the pitch. And honestly, even with Bale, they took a 6-1 thrashing from that disorganized Mexican side, and now they're basically out of contention unless they had high hopes for this group to begin with.

Well, you really have to wait and see if Bale actually plays. If he does, there isn't much value in it for us since he's basically capable of winning a game single-handedly. Besides, by the time kickoff rolls around, the odds will likely have shifted—I'm eyeing maybe 1.80, or at the very least 1.70.

SS live

Vojvodina-Novi Srem correct score 1:0 @ 10.5

All three previous matchups have ended exactly like this—1:0. You’ve got Vojvodina fighting for that 2nd place spot going up against a side desperately clinging to survival. I’m expecting a real grind out there, a tough one.

And just as I went to place my bet, those bastards dropped the odds down to @ 4.70🤮