Posts by Ashley Johnson6

Combinators are best when you find the lowest margin—it’s really that simple...

Berkane - Casablanca over 1.5 (1st half) @ 3.80 (0-0)

To be honest, I'm not even looking at the stats here—it's more about the fact that the Moroccan league (just the top flight) has been struggling through some chaos for a week now, and things really hit a boiling point today (just look at the history of today's matches)... I just can't pass up these odds for two goals in the first half on a game starting in just a few minutes...
(For those playing it safe, over 1 pays out $260 on a $100 bet—basically 2.60 odds—actually, thinking about it, that might be even better value, but unfortunately you can only place that one online)

Andrew Howard14 said:I have a quick question about Betfair. For example, let's say there's an upcoming match between Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United. If I place a "Lay" bet for 10 units on Tottenham—like in this photo—does that mean if it ends in a draw or Manchester United wins, my bet is a winner? And similarly, if I "Back" 10 units on Tottenham... does that mean I only win if Tottenham actually takes the game?
So, basically, a Lay bet is just like betting on a double chance (X2) at a regular sportsbook, if I'm following this right...

http://www.pohrani.com/f/2z/S8/2xY5KQLP/betfair.jpg

You've got it exactly right...

A Lay is essentially betting against a specific outcome, while a Back is betting on one...

Or more specifically—when you Lay, you're acting like the sportsbook, offering odds to other bettors...

And when you Back, you're just the bettor again, taking the odds offered by everyone else who is "playing" the bookie with their Lay bets...
😉

slycyclist35 said:I'm betting on Bet365 and I just ran into a total scam... I'm betting live on some Finnish team, Ilves-Keski Uusima, and I placed an over 1.5 first half bet in the 33rd minute, but then they mark the end of the half at the 39th minute... which obviously means their clock was totally wrong

Is there any way I can actually file a complaint? I mean—they could have just shown it was the 20th minute and then suddenly ended the half, leaving us "idiots" thinking we were betting on something else entirely.. :/

Unfortunately, I've lost money that way more times than I can count, and they never once listened to my complaints... they basically have this disclaimer right under the match stats where they claim zero responsibility for the accuracy of the data they use to settle bets🤣 🤣

But whatever, they’re incompetent, they're bad, and you can just write them off like cattle... just stay patient and don't lose your cool😉

I had a similar thing happen recently—I was betting on an Israeli women's league match, and the AT&T was marked at the 42nd minute, which is insane. After that, the game was completely pulled from the menu, and Football24 only showed the final score... it just proves how inaccurate and unreliable those stats really are..

I even saw one where the match ended in the 84th minute during a blowout score, and of course, Bet365 customer service tries to uvjeravati you that all 90 minutes were played, etc., etc., when clearly they weren't.

With those friendly matches, they often blow the whistle in the 88th or 89th minute... which is a disaster when you've got a goal bet in the dying moments, and they just steal 30 or 50% of the time from you...

Almeria - Real Betis over 1 (1pol) @ 1.85 (0-0)
The first game ended 4-3... honestly, I don't think anyone can argue against getting some value expecting a goal here too 🙂

One-sentence "analyses" like this are going to be deleted from now on. If you're going to post, make it constructive—try to give us at least 4 or 5 solid sentences. UNLESS it's the "Live Betting" thread!

Corinthians vs Criciuma over 3 @ 2.08 (2-1)

Last round of the league—matches that don't really matter anymore—both teams have been scoring like crazy lately (Corinthians 5:2, Criciuma 2:2)... plus, Criciuma is basically the worst team in the league, etc., etc., etc...

Wolfsberger AC vs Admira Wacker over 4 @ 3.90 (5-0)

Wolfsberger AC has woken up a bit lately. They're a controlled side, but the thing about them is—once they lose discipline, things tend to spiral for a while... plus, last season those Austrian teams had some wild high-scoring finishes toward the end of the fall... Red Bull Salzburg already finished 2:4 today, so let's see...

out of pure respect for those crazy high-scoring days from Wolfsberger AC, I have to try 7+ @ 21

Pogon vs Korona Kielce over 1 (1st half) @ 2.05 (1-0)

Honestly, both teams are just in incredible scoring form right now. Pogon has hit two goals in the first half in five of their last six league games—and I think Korona has done it in four of their last six too. They always seem to find the net when they play each other... feels like solid value here.

Sorry, missed this post earlier...

The Over 4 means you get your stake back if there are exactly four goals—but you win if there's five or more... If it ends with three, it's a push. Right now it's 2:0 (goals in the 6th and 10th minutes), but Guaraní have been way more aggressive in the second half this season, so this still feels like a pretty solid bet...

People always claim I never post anything about my own games—well, here is some massive value for tonight:

Feb 3rd - Guaraní over 4 @ 3.90 (0-4)

It’s the final round of the American Clausura. Honestly, there isn't much competitive tension left in this one. Guaraní can't clinch first place anymore—which is really the only thing that matters—and nobody is fighting relegation right now. But Guaraní has had SEVEN straight matches with 4+ goals... three of those were 6+ goal explosions, and five of their last six hit at least 5 goals.

Feb 3rd has been playing very low-scoring lately, but looking at who they played, it actually makes sense. They’re just a squad that adapts to whatever style their opponent brings. So, what's the Guaraní style? 🤣

I still remember this game from last season against Cerro Porteño. It was 4-1 at halftime... I was watching it and they were LITERALLY not even trying to defend—just playing at an incredibly relaxed level. During the break, I actually thought about betting another five goals in the second half because, from what I saw, the value was insane. The odds were 20+. I didn't pull the trigger, though—experience tells me that when a game is high-scoring in the first half, you rarely see a similar explosion in the second.

It ended 5-5. 🤣

What I mean is—Guaraní is one of my favorite clubs in the world, if you can guess why...😁

And then... their last match against a defensive-minded Olimpia Asunción also ended 4-2, though I have to say those last two goals came right at the death—both from long range. That final one was a total miracle, a shot in the VERY last seconds, from a crazy angle, that NOBODY knows how actually went in.

In the first half, that third goal was a absolute rocket from 20 yards out—the kind of strike that, in my opinion, only happens about 10% of the time.

If luck had been even slightly different, the game might have ended, say, 2-1. I don't know the specific details of the goals or how the teams lined up in their other recent matches, but WHO CARES??

Just by looking at their recent history, knowing how Guaraní trends during this part of the season, their opponents' patterns, and the context of the match...

..I've come to the conclusion that these odds represent RARELY SEEN VALUE. It would be a huge mistake not to (try) take advantage of it.

The same goes for over 3 @ 2.10 which I'll be attacking with a heavier stake....

Still hasn't anyone thought to publicly ask how Zdravko Mamić even gets access to the game—especially since it’s common knowledge he’s been caught breaking stadium rules before...🙂

Arthur Howard said:Whether you have Verizon service or not, just give them a call—it’s honestly the best way. It doesn't cost much... and it saves you so much time.

I actually had a pretty ambitious request once, and I managed to get it sorted by calling them directly. They were actually really cool about it... though it sucks that you have to call just to get someone to pay attention to you.

Scott Perez90 said:Can anyone give me some insight regarding PayPal and Venmo? I've been using PayPal for years without any issues—until about a month ago when my outgoing transactions started failing (I was trying to move funds to my foreign currency account). The payout ended up being delayed by ten days. Because of that, I ordered a Visa card that should have arrived two weeks ago... I sent them an email about ten days back, but haven't heard a peep. I'm wondering if others are running into trouble with PayPal lately—is this kind of delay and lack of customer support a sign that something is going wrong internally? Also, what’s the word on Venmo? How's their support and transaction speed? Might be worth switching everything over...

PayPal has had terrible customer service for years now... Honestly, the only way to actually get anything fixed is to call them... but I totally agree with you, that kind of attitude makes the company look bad and really kills any sense of trust.

On top of that, they've jacked up their transaction fees quite a bit... definitely thinking about giving Venmo a shot.

Thanks for the feedback....

The issue I'm running into is distinguishing between those two terms—"practitioners" versus "professionals"...

To be honest, the context just doesn't seem enough to clear up the difference, if there even is one—though I'm not entirely sure...

I ended up using "experts" for both in my translation, but I'm starting to wonder if that was the right call...

Hey there, IT pros!

I’m running into a bit of a snag while translating some tech documentation—this specific terminology keeps popping up...

"IT practice" and "IT practitioners"

Translating them as "IT practices" and "IT professionals" just doesn't feel quite right in this context—if anyone could offer some insight or better alternatives, I'd really appreciate it...

Thanks so much for taking the time to help me out...

Avoid FanDuel at all costs...

They’ve tried to pull a fast one on me a few times now—classic shady behavior. I’ll place a bet on a high underdog line, and they tell me they’ll only accept a fraction of the stake, maybe 20% if I'm lucky, and then say the rest needs "authorization" if I want to proceed.

And they always claim this authorization process takes, what, ten minutes tops?

Well, I sit there waiting and waiting...

Then, magically, that authorization finally clears—every single time, so it’s definitely not a coincidence—but only AFTER the games have already finished, usually 2 or 3 hours after I actually placed the bet. 🤣

Of course, the "approval" always ends up being decided in a way that hits my wallet... 🙏

It's just total crooks—no apologies to anyone who feels the same way.

Uruguay vs. Jordan—nothing at stake here, 68th minute, still 0-0, odds on a Jordan win... 101 (bet365) 😲 😲 😲

I'm not even watching the game, but this is just insane—you can't just let this pass, gotta place a bet...

Mind you, Uruguay was sitting at 1.05 right at kickoff—not laying that would be a total crime...

Nicholas Palmer75 said:If the amount is small, you probably won't—but they’ve definitely caused headaches with larger sums before...

What kind of problems though?

I wish I had the energy—and the actual time—to blast this out across every single forum I can find... but for now, I'll just stick to this one, hoping at least a few hundred people see it...

Basically...

UNIBET—straight up thieves... steer clear if you can.

So, today I was trying to place a parlay with 81 odds. They accepted about 1/6th of my intended stake, then sent the remaining 5/6ths into "additional review"—which was supposed to take maybe 10 or 20 minutes.

Instead, that "review" dragged on for three whole hours, lasting until the first game on my ticket actually finished (I missed that leg, by the way). Once the game was over, the review was suddenly wrapped up instantly, and my extra stake was—get this—actually accepted. 🤣🤣🤣
🙏 🙏 🙏

I tried setting up two more accounts on Marathon, but both got flagged before I could even deposit... they clearly have some pretty solid IP tracking software in place...

On another note, I have to say—I’ve never seen anything like how fast Marathon moves money to Skrill—it’s basically instant, we're talking literal seconds!!! And that's for some pretty decent amounts, too

Even Pinnacle isn't that quick