Australia vs. USA - March 25, 2018

stormybadger8 said:I’m not really buying that...
Regardless of the VSC, Vettel was pulling some weirdly fast laps right after Hamilton and Kimi headed to the pits...
The whole thing felt like a setup orchestrated by him to catch those two off guard... maybe he was just nursing his tires, waiting for the perfect moment to pull off that overcut the entire time.🤔

Right before they pitted, Vettel’s pace started dropping so hard it literally looked like he had absolutely shredded his tires and would be forced to pit first...
Then, immediately after Hamilton and Kimi came in, he suddenly finds the speed to match them—or even surpass them—even though they were sitting on fresh rubber...

The gap between Vettel and Kimi before the VSC was 17.2 seconds, which feels like just enough to potentially emerge right near Kimi's gearbox after the pit stops...
Whether he ends up ahead, side-by-side, or stuck behind? Who knows. But it looks like it would have been incredibly close...

That doesn't add up. The gap between Vettel and Kimi was 17.3s on lap 19 (when Hamilton pitted). By the time Vettel finally pitted six laps later, that gap had only grown to 18s. So, he didn't even gain a full second over those six laps, so how could he have built up any significant advantage? Sure, there was one lap under the VSC, but even then, I don't see how he could have stretched that gap to 23 or 24 seconds on old tires.

swifttiger75 said:Unbelievable. What happened to this community? A moderator on a Formula 1 forum who didn't even watch the season opener. I bet Joe doesn't even watch the races. 😁

So, I’m taking this post as a total provocation. 🧐

stormybadger8 said:Honestly, 🤦
I just blew everything off and decided to make some 622 miles I just want to be able to watch the first race of the season in peace at home (screw Max TV to Go🤣), I'll be back in a few minutes 😬🤣

Someone needs to ask WayOut to start handing out cards for these kinds of moderator posts! 😁
It would be better if things were different in Bahrain.

neonfox65 said:Aren't you a Max Verstappen supporter now?

There is a distinction between being a fan and maintaining an objective perspective on the situation.

mellowtiger83 said:There's a huge difference between being a fan and actually looking at the facts objectively!

Respect. 🙏
Honestly, I’ve been vibing with your takes in this thread lately. New season, new level of objectivity. 👍

Nathan Vaughn20 said:That argument doesn't hold water. The gap between Sebastian Vettel and Kimi Räikkönen was 17.3s at lap 19 (when Lewis Hamilton pitted). Before Sebastian Vettel went in six laps later, the gap was 18s. So, in those six laps, he didn't even gain a full second advantage, so I don't see how he could have built an even larger lead? Sure, there was one lap under the VSC, but still, I don't understand how he would have stretched that gap to 23-24s on old tires.

Sebastian Vettel wouldn't have gained those few seconds on old tires to get back ahead of Kimi Räikkönen. Sebastian Vettel still had plenty of life left in his rubber at that stage and was driving just as fast—maybe slightly faster—than Kimi Räikkönen on the new Soft tire. What exactly would have happened? If Sebastian Vettel had gone to the pits without a VSC, he would have been about 10 laps behind Kimi Räikkönen on newer tires and wouldn't have lost anything at all until his pit stop.

Once you summarize it like that, you finally see how foolish Kimi's attempt at an undercut was against a fast car that was currently 3 seconds ahead. Had the idiots at Mercedes not reacted, Lewis Hamilton would have just kept pulling away from Kimi Räikkönen instead of Kimi Räikkönen succeeding with the undercut.

I am not sure who looked stupider here, Ferrari or Mercedes. Epic.

Kimi Räikkönen could have eventually attempted an undercut if he had been within 2 seconds of Lewis Hamilton and if they had given him Supersoft or Ultrasoft tires in the pits. Then, with some aggressive strategy, he could have messed with Lewis Hamilton while being ahead of him. Of course, then Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes would have had to cover that undercut, but when Mercedes saw Kimi Räikkönen put on Soft tires while being 3 seconds behind, it became an epic failure for Mercedes.

Ferrari didn't look stupid at all with Kimi's undercut attempt; it was clearly designed to bait Hamilton into covering the move, which buys Sebastian Vettel more time. And that’s exactly what happened. Regardless of the VSC, Vettel ended up on the better strategy, and honestly, I think Kimi was intentionally sacrificed here. The real mystery is what the Mercedes-Benz strategists were thinking, trying to cover him without even waiting a lap or two to see if they could match his pace on those old tires.

The possibility of life on Mars remains a subject of considerable interest. It is an intriguing thought, really. One wonders if we will ever find definitive proof, or if the red planet will remain forever silent. There is much to consider regarding the conditions required for biological existence. It is quite a profound matter. kaže:
Ferrari wasn't being foolish at all with Kimi's undercut attempt. It was a calculated move designed to bait Lewis into covering, which would effectively buy Sebastian Vettel more breathing room. And that is exactly what played out. Regardless of the VSC, Vettel ended up on the superior strategy, and I suspect Kimi was intentionally sacrificed for the greater good. The real mystery is what the Mercedes strategists were thinking—why they rushed to cover him without waiting even a lap or two to see if they could match his pace on the old tires.

I honestly can't wrap my head around it. Why on earth would Mercedes decide to pull a move like that? It leaves me with two possibilities. Either they’ve lost their collective wits—which, frankly, seems unlikely given their track record—or perhaps they aren't quite as dominant as everyone claims, and they were simply playing it safe out of pure fear.

The truth is likely somewhere in the middle. It appears Lewis had to be at his absolute maximum just to pull that three-second gap over Kimi. If Mercedes was already pushing at Maximum during that window, then we are looking at a very interesting season ahead.

The sun on the horizon.🙂If you consider that Red Bull was actually faster than what the race results suggested, we’re looking at a very interesting three-way battle ahead.

Beyond that, we don't really know anything else. Australia is such a specific track; it might be representative of what's coming, or it might not be at all.

We'll just have to wait and see... Based on what I've seen so far, Mercedes-Benz looks absolutely dominant, and it feels like they just pulled a fast one on everyone here. But hey, who knows? Maybe they'll get proven wrong at the next race.

If we hadn't spent the last few seasons watching Ferrari's tactical blunders during races, I might actually believe they let Kimi Räikkönen push Hamilton as hard as possible, or that they had Sebastian Vettel saving his tires just to make it look like they could hang with the pace. But honestly? I doubt it. 🤷

One thing should be causing us more concern: the sheer impossibility of overtaking. Sure, we're talking about the US Grand Prix 2018, but even there, things have never looked quite this bleak.

That is precisely why Mercedes holds such a massive advantage thanks to qualifying. I honestly don't see any way for Ferrari to overtake them, even if their race pace ends up being superior. It's just not happening.

Qualifying is going to dictate everything here. Let’s be realistic—scenarios like this won't happen often, which is why Sebastian Vettel's win was great for his championship standing, but these occasional flashes of luck simply won't be enough in the long run.

It would be ideal for Ferrari if the Mercedes drivers were busy taking points away from one another, but I fear Valtteri Bottas isn't quite capable of that level of disruption. What we actually need is a Nico Rosberg.

The Mercedes car is evidently faster, but it isn't because of the engine. Ferrari showed better top speeds across all three sectors during the US Grand Prix; Mercedes simply possesses a phenomenal chassis.

In turns 12 and 13, where chassis performance is paramount, Mercedes looked insanely fast. It appears they've built a car with immense downforce and flawless aerodynamics. This isn't just about the engine or that famous qualifying mode; they have engineered the entire car to perfection. It's intimidating. I worry Lewis Hamilton might just cruise right past the championship, though I still maintain a small hope that Ferrari can find a way to make things interesting.

Check out this solid breakdown:
http://www.planetf1.com/news/conclus...an-grand-prix/

I think they nailed several key points here:
- That massive engine power gap isn't really the story anymore (which is what mellowtiger83 was mentioning earlier in this thread); it's just that Mercedes-Benz has a genuinely great car right now. You can tell because nobody else running a Mercedes engine is even remotely close, unlike last year when you'd see five of them sitting in the top ten.
- Max Verstappen basically choked (to use their words: he "over-drives and underdelivers").
- Charles Leclerc wasn't just beating the rest of the Sauber crew compared to Williams and TRA; he was only 15 seconds behind Esteban Ocon. Unless Ocon is just playing around, the only way Charles Leclerc looks that good is if he's actually becoming a future superstar—which means the situation at Force India is looking pretty grim.

swifttiger75 said:@neonfox65,

Come on, just admit where you were this morning... 🎉

I mean, why would you stay home to watch the race and then just crash right after?

mellowtiger83 said:Look, cheering for someone is one thing—but looking at the situation objectively is a whole different story!

So, I'm asking you straight up... are you rooting for Max? Just give me a straight answer.

mellowtiger83 said:Mercedes clearly has the speed, but it isn't just the engine. Ferrari clocked higher top speeds across all three sectors at the US Grand Prix 2018. It’s the Mercedes chassis that’s truly impressive!

Mercedes is fast because of both the engine and the aero package.
They’re playing it similar to how Red Bull does during a dominant era—sacrificing some straight-line speed to crank up the downforce.



Traffic can be an issue, sure. But as we saw with Red Bull, cornering speed and downforce matter way more than raw top speed on the straights.

BTW—has anyone noticed the new broadcast graphics and the extra data they're feeding us?
Plus, we finally have a decent official YouTube channel for deep dives, interviews, and press conferences.
The Americans really know how to run a show. 👍

mellowtiger83 said:Unless the geniuses at Ferrari actually thought they could undercut Lewis Hamilton by 3 seconds using the hardest tires available that weekend?? And then there's Mercedes, being just as foolish by trying to cover that idiot move from the Ferrari pit wall.

It wasn't about undercutting Lewis. The whole point of that tactic was simply to get their slower first driver ahead of the faster second driver. It's pretty straightforward, especially after hearing that team radio.

Mercedes stepped in to cover the move and maintain control of the race.
That part went fine; once the pit stops were done, Lewis pulled away by a comfortable margin again within a few laps.

The only thing they couldn't control was the wheel nut issues on the Haas cars.

Jason Campbell70 said:Mercedes is fast because of both the engine and the chassis/aero setup.
Now they’re playing it like Red Bull did during their peak dominance—maybe a bit less top-end speed, but they’ve dialed in the downforce.



BTW—noticed nobody mentioned the new broadcast graphics and all the extra data we're getting.
Plus, we finally have a decent official YouTube channel for all the deep dives, interviews, and press conferences.
Americans really know how to run a show. 👍

It had nothing to do with undercutting Lewis Hamilton. The whole point of that tactic was just to get the slower lead driver ahead of the faster second driver. It was pretty straightforward—especially after that team radio bit.

Mercedes just moved to cover that play and control the race.
That wasn't even an issue for them—once the pit stops were done, Lewis pulled away by a few comfortable seconds again after just a couple laps.

The only thing they couldn't control was the wheel nuts on the Haas cars.

Unfortunate for Haas—it wasn't even the mechanics (man... those guys looked totally overwhelmed, I guess). It's pretty telling that the issue was on the same side for both cars.

Who knows what actually went down? It’s totally possible someone on the crew caught the flu and they had to sub in someone who wasn't quite up to speed. Either way, they got absolutely slapped today. I’m betting this failure will be a wake-up call, and we'll see them running flawless pit stops for the rest of the season.

Jason Campbell70 said:I suppose Mercedes is incredibly fast because they really nailed both the engine performance and the chassis aerodynamics.

I think you might have overlooked the driver! ☕

neonfox65 said:Look, I'm asking you directly—are you rooting for Max? Just give me an answer.

I support Charles Leclerc, Max Verstappen, Lewis Hamilton, and Fernando Alonso. Not necessarily in that order.

Yesterday, for instance, I was pulling for Sebastian Vettel to finish ahead of Lewis Hamilton simply because I had money riding on a Vettel victory.🙂

It’s a concept you'll likely struggle to grasp.

Look, I totally get it—when you're putting money on someone, you're obviously going to be rooting for them to take the win.

Roger Wright94 said:I wouldn't go that far.
- That "saving" mode is actually just their standard, regular operating mode, if you ask me. And even with that, Mercedes doesn't look significantly faster than Ferrari + Red Bull. To actually secure a pit stop window, he really needed to be in "attack" mode (which shouldn't be an issue), but it looks like he'll need that just to pull off any serious overtakes. Not to mention, Lewis couldn't even manage it today because this track is just terrible for passing.

- Lewis heads to the pits immediately after Räikkönen today. He's covering the undercut. If Mercedes truly believed they were that dominant, this would have been a relaxed situation where Lewis could pit whenever he felt like it. But no, he bolts right away. Last season, they wouldn't have even broken a sweat in a situation like this. Even a rookie wouldn't have.
And today, Lewis spent half the race unable to build a gap large enough to protect himself from Räikkönen's undercut. Instead, he's forced to dive straight into the pits right behind him.

- My first impression? Mercedes hasn't made as much progress as Ferrari + Red Bull. If Mercedes is just tweaking the car, then they'll have way less room for improvement compared to Ferrari, who did a massive overhaul and still barely understands their current car. And Red Bull looks tight and dialed in; they're going to be trouble.

Of course, we'll be able to act smarter once we watch a few more races. And this track isn't exactly a benchmark anyway.
Mercedes has the edge, sure, but it’s nothing dramatic, nothing discouraging, and nothing depressing like it used to be.

Just looking at some comparisons between the 2017 and 2018 Australian Grand Prix. Mercedes improved their qualifying lap by 1.024s, while Ferrari improved by 0.628s. Back in 2017, Ferrari was trailing Mercedes by 0.268s; in 2018, it's 0.664s. Basic logic suggests that Mercedes took last year's advantage and added nearly another 0.4s to it in a single qualifying lap. I'll concede that in a normal race trim, that gap might shrink by less than 0.4s, but I am certain it isn't smaller than what we saw in 2017.

Another thing I absolutely won't overlook is that Mercedes looked perfectly fine during those first 19 laps on the Ultrasoft, a tire they used to struggle with regarding degradation. Because if we recall 2017, Lewis had to pit very early—on lap 18 with Vettel breathing down his neck—only to come out behind Max, and then Vettel pitted on lap 23 and jumped both of them. Naturally, Max hadn't pitted yet. Yesterday, he sat there with a 3–3.5 second cushion just waiting for Ferrari to make a move, which means he wasn't having any issues with degradation or how the Ultrasoft was behaving. And when things look that good on the softer tires, I guarantee you Mercedes is miles ahead of everyone else once they get onto the Soft tire.

Niki Lauda and Toto Wolff looked rightfully terrified because they let the Italians overtake them this time (even if it was thanks to a mix of circumstances and luck). But hey, that's life—a little help from Valtteri, a few mishaps, a few oversight errors on their part, but in the end, it's usually the small stuff that decides everything.

To see the true power balance, we have to wait for Barcelona, and my expectation there is that Mercedes will hold about a 0.5s advantage in qualifying.

Your logic is a bit off—Kimi managed to close the gap by about 0.2xx while Vettel actually let it slip by more than 0.3xx 😬. You’re kind of forgetting the driver factor too