Australia vs. USA - March 25, 2018

Anthony Baker84 said:Your logic is just fundamentally flawed because Kimi actually managed to close the gap by 0.2xx while Vettel somehow let the gap widen by more than 0.3xx 😬. You’re completely ignoring the driver factor here
.

It leads to one simple conclusion: Kimi would be the fastest guy out there in Germany!☕

mellowtiger83 said:Sebastian Vettel managed to claw back those few seconds on the old tires to get ahead of Kimi Räikkönen. At that point in the race, Vettel still had life left in his rubber and was actually driving just as fast—maybe even slightly faster—than Kimi on the new Soft tires. So, what would have happened? If Vettel had pitted when he did, without any VSC interference, he would've come out with tires about 10 laps fresher than Kimi's and wouldn't have lost a single second on track.

Now that we've broken that down, you can really see how brainless Kimi's undercut attempt was against a car that was sitting 3 seconds ahead at the time. If those idiots at Mercedes hadn't reacted, Hamilton would’ve just kept pulling away from Kimi instead of letting Kimi pull off the undercut.

I honestly don't know who played it stupider here: Ferrari or Mercedes. Epic.

Kimi could've maybe attempted an undercut if he was within 2 seconds of Hamilton and if they'd handed him Supersoft or Ultrasoft tires to play an aggressive tactical game against Hamilton while ahead. Of course, then Hamilton and Mercedes would've had to cover the move. But once Mercedes saw Kimi went on Soft tires while being 3 seconds back? That's a total Mercedes epic fail.

The real kicker is that they seriously had no clue how the tires were going to behave, and Hamilton didn't either...
If I remember correctly, it was either him or Bottas, but either way, Germany only gave one driver a set of Softs, while the other guy got two...
Because of that, they couldn't actually test the Softs properly, so they had zero certainty about what kind of lap times they'd actually deliver...

Look, I didn't catch the FP's this time, so I have no idea if Ferrari tested long runs on the Softs or what their conclusions were...

Clearly, they thought the Softs would work, and well, they obviously didn't...
It actually feels like the Softs needed about 4 or 5 laps just to hit operating temperature and start performing like they were supposed to...

And they didn't even have data on how the Softs would act during the race, since Kimi was the first one to jump on them.😉

Nathan Vaughn20 said:That doesn't add up. The gap between Sebastian Vettel and Kimi Räikkönen was 17.3s at lap 19 (when Lewis Hamilton pitted). Then, six laps later, right before Vettel hit the pits, the gap was 18s. So he didn't even gain a full second over those six laps, so I don't see how he could have built up an even bigger lead. Fine, there was one lap of VSC, but still—how on earth was he supposed to stretch that gap to 23 or 24s on old tires? It makes zero sense.

If this analysis actually holds water—which, let's hope it does 🤷
https://www.racefans.net/2018/03/25/...in-melbourne/?

says:

Pitting while the track was green cost him around 18 seconds.

So according to this, Kimi lost 18 seconds to Lewis during his pit stop...
which would mean that 17.2s gap was just barely enough to put Sebastian Vettel somewhere in Kimi's rearview mirror...

mellowtiger83 said:Mercedes clearly has the pace, but it isn't the engine. Ferrari had faster top speeds across all three sectors at the US Grand Prix; Mercedes just has an insane chassis!

Where the hell are you getting that from???
https://www.fia.com/events/fia-formu...ng-information



Ferrari was barely faster in one sector—and we're talking tiny margins—but in the others, they were absolute garbage compared to Mercedes...

Joshua Rivera56 said:Which race were you watching? Look, Hamilton was over 0.6 seconds faster than Räikkönen per lap during qualifying. Mercedes is leading, while Ferrari is sitting 2 or 3 seconds back. ......

An undercut is obviously doable if you have the faster car, but today Ferrari just wasn't anywhere near Mercedes when it came to race pace. Plus, trying to manage a superior car like the Mercedes while trailing a Ferrari turned out to be a real headache—it’s pretty much the same situation we saw with Red Bull stuck behind Haas, Renault, and Ferrari.

For the numbers, Räikkönen's pit stop was 2.1s, his fastest lap was 1:26.373, and his top speed was 184 miles/h. Vettel clocked in at 2.7s, 1:26.469, and 183 miles/h. Honestly, Kimi was the better, faster driver for Ferrari today, just like he was in qualifying, but it doesn't always come down to that. Luck plays a massive role in this sport. If a Haas mechanic had messed up a wheel nut on Vettel, he would've finished third and that would be that. Instead, things just went exactly how Ferrari hoped they would.
.....

I think I spent more time debating whether it was Räikkönen's fault versus Ferrari playing favorites for Vettel, but you're right—I probably got a bit ahead of myself trying too hard to prove a point. 😛

stormybadger8 said:If this breakdown actually holds water—and I really hope it 🤷
https://www.racefans.net/2018/03/25/...in-melbourne/?

says:

So according to this, Kimi lost 18 seconds to Hamilton during his pit stops...
Which would mean those 17.2 seconds were basically just enough for Vettel to show up somewhere near Kimi...

Solid article, thanks for the link! 👍

Look, I want to make one thing clear—though it seems some people here haven't grasped it for two years running:

Kimi Räikkönen is the number two driver at Ferrari! He’s fine with it. Sebastian Vettel is fine with it. Everyone over at the Scuderia is perfectly okay with it. Most fans are too.

Dammit, the WDC is the holy grail, and everything revolves around that. Given how dominant Mercedes is, this is the only logical way to play it—not that it’s anything new to the Italian philosophy.

And yet, you see people constantly whining about... Kimi being sabotaged.
He isn't.

Kimi was the last guy to win the FER WDC!
He's an old veteran who still has plenty of life in him, but he knows exactly where he stands.

Honestly, I think Kimi Räikkönen would be perfectly content just grabbing a single win at some point during the season.
For me, that would feel just as massive as him clinching the whole championship. 😁

swifttiger75 said:Tija wants to make a point here. It feels like some people haven't grasped this for two years running, and that is...

Kimi is the number two driver at Ferrari! He’s perfectly fine with it. Sebastian Vettel is fine with it too. Everyone at Ferrari is totally cool with it. Most fans are, too.

Look, the WDC is the holy grail. Everything revolves around that. Given how dominant Mercedes-AMG is, this is the only logical approach—though it’s always been the Italian philosophy.

And then we see it constantly being brought up here... claims of Kimi being sabotaged.
It isn't happening.

Kimi was the last guy to win the FER WDC!
He's an old veteran who still has plenty of life in him, but he knows exactly where he stands.

He knows his place so well, he's completely at peace with it. This isn't sabotage.

Kyle Edwards5 said:Honestly, I think Kimi would be perfectly happy if he could just snag one win this season. That's about it.
To me, that would feel just like winning the championship. 😁

Yeah. It would've been nice. And mine too. This whole thing between those two is going to be a total circus. Anyway... Mr. Moderator, I noticed you haven't voted in the poll yet. Probably having a hard time choosing between the two options. 😁

stormybadger8 said:............
It all felt a bit like a setup orchestrated by him to favor Kimi Räikkönen (and maybe Lewis Hamilton if the SC happened)
it’s possible he was just managing tire temps and prepping for that specific overcut the whole time 🤔
.................
The gap between Sebastian Vettel and Kimi Räikkönen before the VSC was 17.2 seconds, which feels like just about enough to come out right near Kimi after the pit stop...
Whether he would have ended up ahead, alongside, or behind is anyone's guess, but it looks like it would have been incredibly tight...
....................

stormybadger8 said:If this analysis holds water—which I hope it does 🤷
https://www.racefans.net/2018/03/25/...in-melbourne/?

says:

So, according to this, Kimi lost 18 seconds to Lewis Hamilton during the pit stops...
Which implies those 17.2 seconds were just enough for Sebastian Vettel to pop up somewhere close to Kimi...

That's not quite right. The PIT time at the US Grand Prix 2018 was 21.5 seconds, plus whatever time you lose accelerating into the first corner.

Kimi Räikkönen

lap time lap
17 1:28.216[2]
18 1:45.858[3] <-entering pits
19 1:32.537[3] <-exiting pits
20 1:28.836[3]

He only lost 17.4 seconds on the entry lap, then lost another 4 on the exit lap.

Also, looking at that "brilliant" strategy, Sebastian Vettel was already trailing by 4 seconds before pitting.
After the stop, Italy was leading Sebastian Vettel by 17; they stretched that lead to 18 over the next three laps, only for Italy to pull it back to 17 before the VSC hit.

Sebastian Vettel was never even close to catching Italy, so there's no way they were clearing a path for him when he was already 4 seconds behind Italy before his stop.

Anyway, I think you might be misreading the data.🤔

Jason Campbell70 said:

He knows exactly where he stands—he's totally fine with it—so there's no sabotage against Kimi happening here.

I honestly thought he’d come after me for saying that. You, though? Not so much. 😁
Doesn't change the facts, regardless. Just because he’s eccentric in how he communicates and follows his own weird logic doesn't mean my point is wrong.

Aside from that, he's actually one of the better speakers out there, right up there with Alonso. 🙏

Jason Campbell70 said:He really had those 2 or 3 seconds needed to dive into that first corner ahead of Sebastian Vettel without any trouble. Honestly, even with just a 2-second gap, he probably would have pulled it off quite easily.

But the guys on the pit wall simply gave him the wrong delta, which led to them missing the window—something they actually admitted after the race was over.

The VSC popped out later, and in that situation, Kimi Räikkönen isn't really the villain or the loser.
There was just one driver who happened to be in the right place at the right time, seized the opportunity, and grabbed the position.
It’s certainly not the first or last time a (V)SC reshuffles the order.

I think I see what you mean now. They messed up the math by assuming the pit stop loss under VSC would be 15 seconds, especially since Sebastian Vettel made it up in just 9.5, though you can never truly predict what kind of delta the FIA is going to hand you during a VSC. 👍

It appears we have finally grasped—though some clearly haven't—that the secret behind Mercedes-AMG isn't just their superoran Power Unit. That infamous "party mode" isn't merely about raw horsepower; it’s about how that power is actually harnessed. It seems the mode somehow influences the entire chassis and suspension setup. You simply won't find the answer if you're looking in the wrong place.🙂.

I personally assumed there wouldn't be any confusion regarding the engine until I watched them tear through Turn 12 during qualifying.

"Party mode" is essentially a way of managing the engine, keeping the RPMs in that perfect sweet spot. It is quite obviously digitally integrated with everything else—the pit wall, the suspension, and so on—but for some reason, it can't be sustained for long.

Regarding engine output, there is one other possibility: Mercedes-AMG might possess an engine so incredibly dominant that they can dial the car into maximum downforce and still remain untouchable on the straights. If that were true—which I am highly skeptical of—everyone else might as well pack their bags now and just hand Lewis Hamilton his fifth title, along with fifteen wins and twenty poles.

I am not inclined to believe that second scenario, given what we see from Williams Racing and Force India using those exact same engines.

Kyle Lopez2 said:I see where you're coming from now. They basically botched the math by assuming a pit stop under the VSC would cost 15 seconds, mostly because Sebastian Vettel managed to pull it off in 9.5. Then again, you can never really predict what kind of delta the FIA is going to throw at you during a VSC. 👍

Everyone seems to have missed the mark on this one. There is no realistic scenario where Sebastian Vettel overtakes Kimi Räikkönen unless you factor in that VSC, which was pure luck. The real question isn't whether he could catch up, but rather how many laps he would have spent trailing behind if that VSC hadn't popped up. Even after his pit stop, Sebastian Vettel would have likely remained stuck three to five seconds behind Kimi Räikkönen. The only actual advantage he gained was having tires that were roughly ten laps fresher. That’s the bottom line.🙂

And that’s how they did it. Kimi was sacrificed, and they made sure almost nobody even noticed.🙂Later on, once Sebastian Vettel finds some decent pace on those newer Ferrari tires—say, ten laps in—they'll probably just radio him and say, "Hey, Kimi, you're slower than him." Not like they ever bother doing that, anyway.👍

To put it simply, they sent Kimi in for a pit stop even though he still had plenty of pace left on his starting tires. Ferrari essentially just had to swap their drivers' positions and nothing more. As for Lewis Hamilton and that whole undercut business—that’s child's play.
In the end, things actually turned out better for Ferrari than they had initially hoped.😁

I have to admit, I find it rather intriguing that the Haas F1 Team suffered those engine failures at the exact moment Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes managed to shut down Kimi Räikkönen’s attempt at an undercut—if one can even call it that.🙂 Right at the exact moment when Sebastian Vettel hadn't even made his way into the pits yet—and he was actually in quite an interesting spot on the track, mind you, specifically because he was hovering right near the pit lane entrance—that's when everything unfolded.

It seems pretty clear that Kimi is effectively the second driver here. Sebastian Vettel is the "Golden Boy," and every single time Kimi manages to outqualify him, Ferrari starts running into trouble... 🙂
I was really holding out hope for one of Kimi's wins last season, but honestly, I feel like that's only going to happen if Sebastian Vettel secures the WDC... or if he suffers some kind of DNF... otherwise, I just don't see it happening...

copperdrifter26 said:Qualifying. It’s hard to draw any real conclusions when Lewis Hamilton and Valtteri Bottas are just coasting in the DRS zone and Sebastian Vettel has clear air, so he isn't even pushing the engine to its absolute limit.

The speed trap gap between Kimi Räikkönen and Lewis Hamilton is 12 miles/h in favor of Hamilton...
Sure, part of that is definitely down to DRS, but it's still hard to believe DRS alone accounts for 12 miles/h...
And yet, regardless of how much I remember, nobody actually overtook anyone else in that DRS zone, even considering you get an extra 12 miles/h... which is honestly pretty weird because 12 miles/h is a massive amount...

The gap at the start line between Kimi Räikkönen and Lewis Hamilton is 6.2 miles/h...
Again, some of that difference comes from the DRS effect...

Still, I don't get how some people here manage to read this and conclude that Ferrari is damn faster than The Bear in the speed trap, let alone faster in every single sector. 🤔

Qualifying is one thing, but a race is something else entirely...
It’s totally possible for a car to behave differently during a race when it's heavy with fuel and its top speed shifts... which is exactly what we see with Ferrari and Mercedes swapping roles in that regard...
Looking at it, you'd almost think Ferrari has a "party mode" they can trigger for qualifying but not for the race, while The Bear has it available for both...

Man, Luja is straight up trolling the F1 official account 🤣

https://www.instagram.com/p/BgvnOLYh...hr&taken-by=f1

🙏 🤣 🤣 🤣

The three strongest drivers on the grid right now 🙏
https://twitter.com/gvandergarde

https://twitter.com/GvanderGarde/sta...49872439365632 😂

Richard Ross11 said:It’s pretty obvious that Kimi is effectively acting as the number two driver here. Sebastian Vettel is clearly the "Golden Boy" of the team, and it seems like every single time Kimi manages to outqualify Sebastian Vettel, Ferrari runs into some kind of crisis. 🙂
I was hoping for one of Kimi's wins last season, but honestly, I don't see it happening unless Sebastian Vettel secures the WDC... or unless he suffers some kind of DNF. Otherwise, no.

Golden Boy is an incredibly fast driver at Ferrari. Right now, Sebastian Vettel is dealing with a bit of a snag—he just doesn't trust the car yet. That’s a massive handicap for any driver, really. Still, I’m confident he'll adapt quickly and start handling the car exactly how he needs to. Looking back at Sunday, we have to be realistic; that lack of confidence meant he was driving much more cautiously—read: slower—than his actual pace would allow.

For instance, even that devout Catholic guy dealt with similar struggles early last season when he was practically unrecognizable and just got absolutely dismantled by Valtteri Bottas. It's simply a fact.

mellowtiger83 said:Golden Boy is an incredibly fast driver behind the wheel at Ferrari! Right now, Sebastian Vettel is dealing with a bit of a struggle—he just doesn't have full confidence in the car. That’s a massive handicap for any driver, but I truly believe Sebastian Vettel will adapt quickly and learn to drive the car exactly how he needs to. If we're being realistic about Sunday, he drove much more cautiously (which is just a polite way of saying slower) than he actually could have!

For instance, even the black Catholic faced similar hurdles at the start of last season when he was virtually unrecognizable and got absolutely shredded by Valtteri Bottas. It’s just the nature of the sport!

Yes, he's generally quite fast, which isn't surprising, right?
But, whenever there's a moment where he falls behind—and it has happened—it becomes almost comical watching everything Ferrari does... you start wondering if they wouldn't rather just bring him forward... without making it look like blatant "team orders"... 🙂